MIAMI _ For the Miami Dolphins the next six weeks will shape a forlorn franchise's immediate and long-term future. But the coming free agency period and NFL Draft will not be about any one player as much as it will be an overall referendum on general manager Chris Grier, the man out front in roster decisions.
This begins his fifth season as GM and third with say over personnel, and he begins the biggest month-plus of his professional life.
It will dramatically and quickly turn the Dolphins competitive, or be a seismic disappointment.
The question: Are Grier and his braintrust including owner Stephen Ross and coach Brian Flores _ up to the challenge.
Miami has hit the lottery in terms of available spending money and draft picks. That means Grier and Co. have every opportunity and no excuse to fail.
The Dolphins have a league-leading $93.7 million in spending money, according to spotrac.com's current NFL Team Salary Cap Tracker. That is $7.6 million more than anybody else and more than double the league average of $44.7 million.
That presents a windfall of opportunities and options as free agency begins next week. (Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson predicts Miami will sign running back Melvin Gordon, for what it's worth).
Miami also owns a league-leading 14 draft picks, including three in the first round (fifth, 18th and 26th overall) and two more in the second round.
That means something will have gone very, very wrong if the Fins don't come out of the April 23-25 draft with their long-sought quarterback of the future, edge-rush help, solutions at other positions and a legion of newly buoyant fans. (The Dolphins have 23 picks during the next two drafts _ including an unheard-of nine in the first two rounds).
Cincinnati will not trade the overall No. 1 pick and bypass quarterback Joe Burrow, so forget that speculation. But Miami remains a front-runner to select Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert fifth overall, or perhaps with a slight trade-up to be sure. Key date: Tagovailoa's health and performance at his private Pro Day on April 9.
"We'd like to find the right guy to be the quarterback," Grier puts it simply. "You see the importance of that around the league."
Skepticism about the Dolphins and Grier's ability to own the next six weeks are natural.
It isn't quantifiable except at gut level, but the Dolphins for me rank at the bottom of South Florida's five major pro teams in terms of the trust level each has earned with its fan base.
The Heat clearly is No. 1, with wise old godfather Pat Riley demonstrating this season, with this team, that he remains on top of his game with an impressive rebound from the dissolution of the Big 3 era. He has done it with with smart drafting (Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro), smart trades (Jimmy Butler, Andre Iguodala) and the mining of overlooked talent such as undrafted Kendrick Nunn.
ESPN NBA expert Amin Elhassan tells us on my latest podcast this week that he felt Riley went "wayward" in bestowing big money on Hassan Whiteside, Dion Waiters and James Johnson, but the reset button has been pushed emphatically.
"They're good at doing this," Elhassan said. "Now you have you have a guy in Jimmy Butler who's a bona fide star and a guy in Bam Adebayo who looks like he'll be a star in this game for a while. Now you have a scenario that is attractive for other free agents to come. Players want to play somewhere where it looks like they know what they're doing. What Miami has done and what Pat Riley has done is re-establish, 'We know what we're dong here'."
Riley has the track record; he can lean on proof. On the championship rings.
Inter Miami, our new Major League Soccer team that plays its historic first home game this coming Saturday, has zero track record, yet enjoys a rather astounding benefit of doubt. Much of that is the allure and international stature of club president David Beckham. No matter that the team has begun its maiden season 0-2. Optimism is nearly palpable that this team might be good fast.
Longtime futbol broadcaster Ray Hudson, also on our podcast this week, called Beckham "a magnet for all that is good in world-quality football," predicting the club will quickly build a winning team around early star Rodolfo Pizarro, who scored the franchise's first-ever goal on Saturday.
"You look at the pulling power of Beckham and deep pockets of this ownership group," said Hudson. "The whole operation is geared to attracting top players. Inter Miami are going to be able to compete and match any offer that comes to players who become available. And the Beckham factor is an enormous seduction. This is not going to be a complacent club."
Panthers and Marlins have renewed hope, too.
Florida's NHL ship has a proven team builder in Dale Tallon and, led by young talent including Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov, is fighting for a playoff spot after an offseason that featured the hiring of a star coach in Joel Quenneville and an all-star goaltender in Sergei Bobrovsky.
The Marlins begin Year 3 of the Derek Jeter reboot with a fully stocked farm system that is showing signs of ripening and figures to pay dividends across the next two or three seasons.
The four above teams have given their fans cause for hope in a way the Dolphins have not.
Two decades of not mattering _ the Fins last won a playoff game in the 2000 season _ have turned Dolfans fatalistic, fearing the worst and afraid to expect the best.
That can all change, or at least seismically begin to, across the next six weeks.
It had better.
Because by the combination of money to spend in free agency and an arsenal of high draft picks, the Miami Dolphins have seldom if ever been in a better position to get good fast. To simply matter again.
