After a rough start to our 32nd season of NFL picks in the Miami Herald we’ve been on the uptick lately, including last week’s solid 9-5 mark both straight-up and against the point spread. We nailed our Upset of the Week with Giants winning outright in Jacksonville, and also bull’s-eyed another pair of dogs-with-points in covers by the Commanders vs. Green Bay and by the Seahawks at the L.A. Chargers. Finally starting to feel a little double-mo -- momentum and mojo -- so let’s keep it rolling!
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Week 7: 9-5, .643 overall; 9-5, .643 vs. spread.
Season: 59-48-1, .551 overall; 52-55-1, .486 vs. spread.
Final 2021: 172-99-1, .635 overall; 140-130-2, .519 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 8 PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK
PACKERS (3-4) at BILLS (5-1)
Line: BUF by 11 1/2.
Cote’s pick: BUF, 28-23.
TV: 8:20 p.m., NBC.
Isn’t often the week’s largest point spread and likelihood of a rout earn Game of the Week honors, but this Sunday nighter has all the elements — starting with a desperate Aaron Rodgers vs. Josh Allen in prime time. Rodgers is the biggest dog of his career, and Pack have lost three in a row. Meaning a blood-craving Buffalo crowd is either going to revel as Rodgers sinks to a new career low — or marvel to watch a proud superstar put on a show and raise a metaphoric middle finger to his critics and doubters. Yeah, I’d watch that. Everything favors the mighty Bills, who are coming off a bye and have averaged 39.7 points in winning three straight in prime time. But Rodgers has led the Gee Bees (though usually a better iteration, granted) on a 13-1 run under the lights, with 36 scoring passes his past dozen games in prime time. The Packers are reeling. Buffalo looks awesome. Yet I see competitive, inside-the-bet-line game purely owing to respect for Rodgers, and his ability to reprise the magic showman just when you think he can’t.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
PATRIOTS (3-4) at JETS (5-2)
Line: NE by 2 1/2.
Cote’s pick: NYJ, 20-17. Upset!
TV: 1 p.m., CBS.
“AAWWK!” shrieks the Upset Bird. “I cannot believe I’m picking the New Yaawwk Jaaawwwk!” Do we as a nation believe in the Jets yet? Point spread answers a resounding no, with the better-record team a home dog. Why? Habit. New England has won 12 straight in this series — nine of them by double digits. Bill Belichick has owned this division opponent, had it on a leash. That makes Jets hungry and way due. And reminds Bill he’s a long way from Tom Brady. Neither Zach Wilson nor Mac Jones is going to light up the scoreboard, but give slight edge to Planes’ defense. Losing RB Breece Hall hurts NYJ, but trading for James Robinson should as Jets land first five-game win streak since 2015. “Anybody feel sorry for the fallen king?” asks U-Bird, rhetorically. “Belichaaawwwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 8:
Broncos (2-5, +2 1/2) over @Jaguars (2-5), 19-16. Upset!: We’re sorry, Great Britain. You’re stuck with a bad NFL game between teams each bringing four-game losing skid to Wembley. Think Nottingham Forest vs. Wolvehampton. Russell Wilson expects to return from hamstring injury for Denver, though another week of Brett Rypien wouldn’t shock. Broncos are first team in NFL history to have losing record after seven games with a defense allowing under 17 points a game. Our upset leans heavily on that strong D and on odds that Wilson is due a critics-quieting game. Jaguars have lost six in a row as favorites and 19 straight non-division games.
@Falcons (3-4, -4) over Panthers (2-5), 24-17: Atlanta is erratic and untrustworthy but look for Carolina, after that aberrant shocker against Tampa last week, to revert to lousiness here after firing their coach, losing their starting QB and trading star RB Christian McCaffrey in a flurry. Panthers have lost six in a row on the road.
Miami (4-3) over @Lions (1-5), 27-20. This is on pace to be the NFL’s lowest-scoring season since 2009 despite the best efforts of Detroit’s worst-in-the-league defense more than doing its share. But even the Lions showed life (relatively speaking) last week in allowing “only” 24 points in a loss to Dallas. Then you have Miami, which tends to move the ball and move the ball and then sputter and has topped 21 points only once all season.
@Cowboys (5-2, -9) over Bears (3-4), 27-13: Chitown travels on a short week after surprising Patriots on Monday night. His sprained knee and a bye next week suggest Dallas may sit Ezekiel Elliott, but Boys still would have plenty of offense to outpoint Justin Fields and crew.
@Vikings (5-1, -3 1/2) over Cardinals (3-4), 30-27: Shootout potential in what has been a low-scoring season leaguewide. And jousting trends: Minnesota has won four straight and seven of past eight at home — and eight in a row when favored. But Zona is on a 10-3 run on the road and an 8-1 flier as a road dog. Both teams are rested with Vikes off a bye and Cardbirds playing last Thursday. Return of DeAndre Hopkins has gifted Kyler Murray. Home field and edge on defense tip it to Vikes, but lean Cards getting that half point.
Raiders (2-4, -1 1/2) over @Saints (2-5), 27-20: Jameis Winston is healthy now, but N’Awlins is sticking with Andy Dalton in a choice of two turnover machines. Vegas has dropped four straight on the road but like Derek Carr and hot Josh Jacobs here against NFL’s second-worst scoring defense.
@Eagles (6-0, -11) over Steelers (2-5), 31-13: Looking at Philly’s remaining schedule (so the 1972 Dolphins don’t have to), I see four games that could be loseable. This ain’t one. Eagles coming off a bye and Steelers on a short week after playing Sunday night only underlines the disparity in the Keystone State rumble. Birds have no real weakness, and the many strengths include sport’s best offensive line. Now they’ve traded for DE Robert Quinn in the latest Super Bowl-or-bust declaration.
Titans (4-2, -2) over @Texans (1-4-1), 24-21: Sometimes a particular matchup jumps out at you and says, “Boo!” Here’s one: Tennessee’s ground game DNA led by Derrick Henry vs. Houston’s 32nd-ranked run defense. Ryan Tannehill iffy with an ankle injury only underlines the likelihood Titans will go low for the win. (Rookie Malik Willis is on call but I’d guess Tanny plays). Tenners have won four straight, are on a 10-1 roll inside the division and shouldn’t trip up here.
@Colts (3-3-1, -3) over Commanders (3-4), 17-13: Indy QB Matt Ryan said he was shocked to lose his starting job. Not me. I was shocked the guy replacing him is second-year pro Sam Ehlinger and not seasoned vet Nick Foles. Major dice-roll for coach Frank Reich as Ehlinger makes his maiden NFL start. It being at home helps, and he will lean on RB Jonathan Taylor, but give a big upset shot to Washington on the wing of two straight wins.
@Rams (3-3, +1) over 49ers (3-4), 27-24: Niners are on a 7-1 series run against Rams including a 24-9 spanking in Week 4. Is Kyle Shanahan living rent-free in Sean McVay’s noggin? L.A. and Matthew Stafford have been disappointing Super Bowl champs thus far (weak running game hasn’t helped), and now SF has added Christian McCaffrey by trade. Still, home and off a bye week, I’m feeling a counter-trend uprising by the Horned Sheep.
@Seahawks (4-3,-3) over Giants (6-1), 24-20: Two of NFL’s most pleasant surprises got a sniff from the Game of the Week committee as the only Week 8 matchup with two winning-record teams. Geno Smith has been great and has help now as rookie RB Kenneth Walker III is a real find for ‘Hawks. NYG’s stout run-game also could find holes vs. Seattle’s ground defense. G-Men have won four straight, five in a row as a dog and are 3-0 on the road — that means they’re due a stumble. Seattle is home, with an improving D and a bigger upside with the ball.
Bengals (4-3, -3 1/2) over @Browns (2-5), 27-24: Monday night’s Battle of Ohio rivalry could swing dogward if Brownies can get Nick Chubb going enough to chew clock and limit Joe Burrow’s time on the field. Cincy has shaken off an 0-2 start neatly, and Burrow — with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to aim at — threw for almost 500 yards last week. Get it straight, though: Four of Cleveland’s five losses have been by a combined nine points, and a home-dog upset is majorly in play.
[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday afternoon.]
OFF THIS WEEK
Chargers (4-3, next @Falcons) — Signs of trouble? Bolts have the worst points differential (minus-25) and the most points allowed (189) of any team with a winning record.
Chiefs (5-2, next vs. Titans) — Another high-flying season for Patrick Mahomes and company finds Kansas City the current third-favorite at most sportsbooks to win Super Bowl, after Bills and Eagles.
