We went a stout 11-5 straight-up in our Week 3 NFL picks, and an OK-but-not-really 8-8 against the spread. Highlights: We’re off to a perfect 3-0 start on Upset of the Week bull’s-eyes after nailing Packers winning at San Fran last week. Also called Rams upset win over Bucs, and had a pair of ‘dogs-with-points on covers by Dolphins and Chargers. The bad news: Too many misfires, including thinking Philly would cover at Dallas Monday night. Ouch. All in all still a solid start to our season. Let’s keep climbing! [Note: Thursday night pick was @Bengals (-7 1/2) over Jaguars, 27-17.]
Week 3: 11-5, .688 overall; 8-8, .500 vs. spread.
Season: 31-17, .646 overall; 26-22, .542 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 4 PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK
BUCCANEERS (2-1) at PATRIOTS (1-2)
Line: TB by 7.
Cote’s pick: TB 30-16.
TV: 8:20 p.m., NBC.
Hasn’t gotten much media attention this week, but you may have heard: Tom Brady is returning to Foxborough on Sunday for the first time since leaving Bill Belichick and New England. The scoreboard shouldn’t even say Buccaneers at Patriots. It should just say Brady at Belichick. NBC’s Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth have been hyperventilating all week and inventing new adjectives. You know Brady and Belichick and have never wanted to win a game more, with the possible exception of Super Bowls. Take the over on number of cameras surrounding Brady and Belichick for their postgame handshake. Or will it be a hug!? (Oh yeah, almost forgot. It’s Gronk’s homecoming, too. Sorry, Gronk). Brady won a Super Bowl for Bucs last year while Patriots went 7-9, so maybe poor Bill deserves an upset here. Sorry, Bill. It’s Tom Brady vs. Mac Jones. And if this is the love-in for Brady we should expect from appreciative, wistful fans, I’m not even sure Pats get a home-field advantage here. A New England upset is less likely than a Bucs rout. Did I mention it’s Tom Brady vs. Mac Jones?
UPSET OF THE WEEK
SEAHAWKS (1-2) at 49ERS (2-1)
Line: SF by 2 1/2.
Cote’s pick: SEA 30-27.
TV: 4:05 p.m., Fox.
“AAAWWWK!” croons the high-flying Upset Bird. “We’re 3-0. Three and aaawwwk!” It’s true. We are a perfect 3-0 so far on Upset of the Week picks, so the pressure’s on here. Can you handle it, Russell Wilson? Will you come through for us? Both NFC West rivals are coming off losses, but Seattle’s a bit more desperate after two straight tough losses and facing its first 1-3 start since 2011. San Fran has lost five straight home games, and three of past four to Seattle. In Russ we trust! “Sorry, Garoppolo,” adds U-Bird. “Seahaaawwwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 4:
@Dolphins (1-2, -2) over Colts (0-3), 23-20: The Colts have struggled to score because Carson Wentz has been a very big downgrade from Philip Rivers. Then again, the Dolphins — with Jacoby Brissett starting again for injured Tua Tagovailoa — aren’t populating many offensive highlight reels either. I give Fins a slight edge on defense, but even that’s debatable. Mostly, make this a venue call, fueled by the Fins’ 6-1 run in covering the line at home.
@Falcons (1-2, +1 1/2) over Washington (1-2), 24-20: Upset! You might be more likely to be dealt a royal flush than Washington is to be a road favorite. But here it is, and I don’t get it. Falcons on a 6-0 run in this series, and Matt Ryan will find a way at home to outscore Taylor Heinicke.
@Bills (2-1, -16) over Texans (1-2), 31-13: Betting lines rarely get this fat in King Sport, but all signs point to a holy rout. Buffs on an 8-1 run at home, Texans have lost seven in a row on the road, and Houston rookie QB Davis Mills will melt under Bills’ pass rush in a tough road venue.
Lions (0-3, +2 1/2) over @Bears (1-2), 19-16: Upset! Detroit beats Baltimore last week if a record 66-yard field goal doesn’t bounce off the crossbar and in. Chicago can’t seem to decide if its QB will be hobbled Justin Fields or Andy Dalton or journeyman Nick Foles, while top defender Khalil Mack has a foot sprain. Quick aside: Bears announced plans to move from Soldier Field to suburban Arlington Heights. Oy!
@Cowboys (2-1, -4 1/2) over Panthers (3-0), 27-17: Cats with a big prep edge after playing last Thursday while Boys worked Monday night. Still, RB Christian McCaffrey out injured is a huge blow to Carolina (and to Sam Darnold), while Panthers’ stout defense faces its toughest test. Home edge, no McCaffrey and Cowboys’ balanced attack spell the result.
@Vikings (1-2, +2) over Browns (2-1), 30-27: Upset! (Wow. Gettin’ a bit carried away with upsets this week!). Minnesota’s offense is fire, and Vikes’ solid O-line will handle Browns’ pass rush a hell of a lot better than the sadsack Bears did last week. Kirk Cousins is outplaying Baker Mayfield thus far, and Earthtones have lost five of past eight when giving points on road.
@Saints (2-1, -7 1/2) over Giants (0-3), 24-13: N’Awlins faces letdown after big win at New England, but gets a lift from season debut at Superdome (after home opener was moved to Jacksonville by Hurricane Ida). Not big on monthly trends, but hard to ignore Saints’ 15-0 run straight up in October vs. Giants’ 1-12 skid. NYG’s stinky offense has coach Joe Judge feeling early heat. This won’t help.
Titans (2-1, -7) over @Jets (0-3), 30-16: Impress your friends with this: Jets were born and played as the New York Titans in the AFL in 1960-62. So there! Take today’s Titans in this one, although both teams’ proneness to turnovers makes the pick volatile. Tennessee’s D isn’t great, but Jets’ sad, sad offense can’t capitalize. Zach Wilson already has been sacked 15 times.
Chiefs (1-2, -7) over @Eagles (1-2), 28-23: A win would be Patrick Mahomes’ 40th in his first 50 pro starts, tying Kenny Stabler for most in that span. I like his chances, although watch Jalen Hurts do damage on ground vs. KC’s oft-shaky defense. Chiefs haven’t been blowing out teams for a good while; they’re on a 1-12-1 skid against the spread. Feeling Philly covers as a touchdown home dog.
@Rams (3-0, -4 1/2) over Cardinals (3-0), 30-20: Strong Game of the Week contender if not for Brady-at-Belichick. You’d imagine Rams facing a letdown after beating Brady’s Bucs last week — except a 3-0 division opponent tends to earn your focus. L.A. has owned Zona of late, winning eight in a row in series and effectively limiting Kyler Murray in all four meetings. Matthew Stafford is looking like an early MVP factor, and now Rams expect to have top RB Darrell Henderson back as well.
Ravens (2-1, +1) over @Broncos (3-0), 20-17: Upset! (Our fifth and last of a wild week, although this is a mini one that hardly feels like one). Not sure about either team here. Ravens would be 1-2 if not for the prayer of a record 66-yard field goal last week. Broncos are 3-0 against teams that together are 0-9. Lamar Jackson (sore back) missed practice Wednesday but figures to play and be the first challenge to Denver’s defense.
@Packers (2-1, -6 1/2) over Steelers (1-2), 31-17: Another Game of the Week candidate but for Brady-at-Belichick — if only for the rarity that future Hall of Famers Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger have faced each other. Combined they bring 817 career TD passes into their first head-to-head meeting in almost 11 years! Love Rodgers at Lambeau in this matchup. Big Ben has been bad, and his top WRs Diontae Johnson and Juju Smith-Schuster both are iffy to play. Top defender T.J. Watt also is questionable for Pitt.
@Chargers (2-1, -3 1/2) over Raiders (3-0), 37-31: Sexy Monday matchup and a likely shootout to wrap Week 4. Vegas with two OT wins including last week’s vs. Miami tells you how fragile the Raiders’ 3-0 is. L.A. winning at Kansas City last week tells you how good Justin Herbert and the Chargers can be. (Herbert hurt his throwing vs. KC but is expected to play).
[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of mid-afternoon Thursday.]
