Our second-half heater resumed in Week 16 as we went a big 12-4 overall and a solid 10-6 against the spread. Nailed Titans’ upset of Niners and Colts’ mini-upset of Cards, and also had Lions-with-points covering at Atlanta. Had some bad luck related to the fact our picks are locked in on Thursdays. That has hurt us some related to COVID-19 protocols and also injuries, such as Lamar Jackson still with a shot to play when we picked. Anyhow, no excuses. With two weeks to go our overall season total has risen to the respectable zone and our number against the Evil Betting Line is not above what it was a year ago. Time to finish strong!
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Week 16: 12-4, 750 overall; 10-6, .625 vs. spread.
Season: 152-87-1, .636 overall; 125-113-2, .525 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 17 PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK
CHIEFS (11-4) at BENGALS (9-6)
Line: KC by 5 1/2.
Cote’s pick: KC, 27-23.
TV: 1 p.m., CBS.
Not sure how often in 31 years of NFL picks in the Miami Herald that Cincinnati has been in our Game of the Week — but it ain’t many! KC has won its division but bags No. 1 AFC seed with win if Miami beats Titans. And Bengals clinch their division crown with a win. Joe Burrow has the weapons to hang with Patrick Mahomes in a shootout, although Chiefs getting back TE Travis Kelce off COVID-19 list is XXL-big. Also give KC an edge on defense. Still see this one closer than the bet line, which, despite the visitors’ pedigree and eight wins in a row, disrespects the Bengals somewhat. Cincy is 4-0 against rival Ravens and Steelers this season, but winning here would be another level or respect. They will come close.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
BROWNS (7-8) at STEELERS (7-7-1)
Line: CLE by 3.
Cote’s pick: PIT, 20-17.
TV: 8:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN.
“AAAWWWK!” cries the Upset Bird. “Bawlin’ my eyes out over here. Baaawwwk!” Emotion will be thick over the final Monday night game of the regular season. Expect a massive tribute to this week’s passing at 85 of MNF icon John Madden. Also, all signs point to this being the final home game of Ben Roethlisberger’s illustrious Pittsburgh career as he strongly hints at retirement. Almost forgot: Two old rivals in a desperate fight for their playoff lives. Why the upset? Browns have lost four of past five roadies, Pitt is 5-0-1 in it last six at home, and emotion matters. Big Ben’s farewell, at home, under the lights, will mean something palpable. “Agreed,” nods U-Bird, dabbing a hanky to watering eyes. “Ben Roethisbaaawwwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 17:
@Titans (10-5, -3 1/2) over Dolphins (8-7), 23-20: Miami is playoff-positioned after unlikely seven wins in a row and now faces longtime former Fins starting QB Ryan Tannehill for the first time. Delicioso! Put another way: It’s Tua Tagovailoa’s first head-to-head with the man he was drafted to replace (and be better than). Key factor here: Tennessee played last Thursday and Miami on Monday night, a major prep/rest edge for Titans. Tenners a stout home team (6-1 run) and getting OT Taylor Lewan back from COVID-19 protocols. And return of WR A.J. Brown has been huge lift for Tannehill. Folks, I’m trying to break it to you gently that Miami’s seven-game win streak is about to end — though I like Fins to cover and give ‘em a medium outright upset shot.
@Bills (9-6, -14 1/2) over Falcons (7-8), 31-14: Buffs have yet to clinch playoffs, and AFC East title is still in play, so homies have much at stake here. But will Bills be flat, bit by the letdown bug, after last week’s huge win over rival New England? ATL is still alive in NFC wild-card hunt, but in pretty much the same way I’m still under consideration for a Pulitzer Prize. Crowd and weather big factor here.
@Bears (5-10, -6) over Giants (4-11), 24-9: Andy Dalton is more likely back from injury than Justin Fields, but in any case Nick Foles is a plus-grade QB option for Chitown. Little matter, because defense will carry the day. NYG is 1-7 on road and has been outscored by 66 points in its 0-4 skid. And The Soldier in winter is a tough venue — especially when you pack a putrid offense for the trip.
@Colts (9-6, -6 1/2) over Raiders (8-7), 27-17: After Indy failed to pry Philip Rivers from retirement, sixth-round rookie QB Sam Ehlinger is on call for first start if unvaccinated Carson Wentz can’t extricate off the COVID-19 list in time. (Way to be there for your teammates, selfish Carson). Like Colts at home anyway to win and clinch playoffs, with heavy dose of running back Jonathan Taylor and a defense that leads NFL in points (115) off takeaways.
@Patriots (9-6, -16) over Jaguars (2-13), 34-0: Pats primed for a huge bounceback game at home after consecutive losses, including last week’s to rival Bills complicated the playoff chase. So Bill Belichick bags his 20th 10-win season to tie Don Shula’s record. Sad Jax and struggling Trevor Lawrence see their woes magnified by injury loss of RB James Robinson.
@Ravens (8-7, +3 1/2) over Rams (11-4), 23-20: Maybe this should have been our Upset of the Week instead? Rams are playoff-clinched, the game is bigger for Baltimore and I expect a noble effort from Ravens’ D after last week’s embarrassing torching by Joe Burrow. Also seems Lamar Jackson (ankle) has a chance to return from two games out, albeit with mobility likely limited. LAR has won four in a row and BAL has lost four straight, but watch both trends end. Crows have won eight of past 10 at home.
Buccaneers (11-4, -13) over @Jets (4-11), 30-10: Tom Brady is 17-4 at Jets/Giants and watch that continue, although Bucs have sewn up division and may be on autopilot, putting the cover in some doubt. Brady is missing key weapons (Leonard Fournette, Chris Godwin) but hopes to have Mike Evans.
Eagles (8-7, -3) over @Washington (6-9), 24-20: Philly clinches playoffs with a win and other results falling right, but Washington should be highly charged to play spoiler vs. a division rival, especially after last week’s 56-point embarrassment vs. Dallas. Jalen Hurts topped 300 yards in 27-17 win over No Names two weeks ago, and Birds’ offense is clicking in its 5-1 run.
@Chargers (8-7, -6 1/2) over Broncos (7-8), 26-21: Both teams desperate in playoff chase after two straight L's each, and Bolts especially reeling after spanking by lowly Texans. Difference here: Home team has some offensive pop. Denver, especially with Teddy Bridgewater (concussion) doubtful to play, does not. Still, Broncos on a 4-1 series roll and seem a nice bet getting a touchdown.
@49ers (8-7, -12 1/2) over Texans (4-11), 27-17: Playoff-seeking Niners played last Thursday so have a nice rest/prep edge, although Jimmy Garoppolo (thumb) is iffy to play, putting rookie Trey Lance on call for his second career start. Houston and Davis Mills have won two in a row and are a too-tempting play here with nearly a two-TD head start.
@Cowboys (11-4, -5 1/2) over Cardinals (10-5), 31-24: Our Game of the Week runner-up finds Boys off four consecutive victories still angling for No. 1 NFC seed and Cardbirds despite three straight losses still dreaming of division title. Arizona played last Saturday and Dallas Sunday night, but Cowboys’ offense is humming enough to overpower a Cards D beaten for 82 points in its three-game slide.
@Seahawks (5-10, -6 1/2) over Lions (2-12-1), 19-17: Jared Goff (knee) might be out again for Motown, but likely return of RB DeAndre Swift is big boost. Lions have turned (sort of) respectable since 0-8 start, are still playing hard and have had a reliable niche of staying close and covering — and here’s another perfect chance. Notable: Is this the final home game for embattled coach Pete Carroll and wants-out QB Russell Wilson?
@Saints (7-8, -6 1/2) over Panthers (5-10), 24-10: Carolina fans booed return of Sam Darnold and chanted, “Fire [Matt] Rhule!” during last week’s fifth consecutive loss. Depleted N’Awlins was awful in 20-3 loss to Miami with raw rookie Ian Book at QB, but get big boost with expected return of Taysom Hill. Cats have packed it in and been outscored by 80 points in their five-game skid.
@Packers (12-3, -6 1/2) over Vikings (7-8), 30-23: Final Sunday night game of regular season should be a good one. Gee Bees trying to secure No. 1 NFC seed while Vikes’ playoff hopes are hanging by a strand of (non-al dente) spaghetti. Kirk Cousins will be missing Adam Thielen but hopes to have Dalvin Cook back of COVID-19 list in time to face Pack’s so-so run defense. And Minny has beaten Cheesers two straight. Still, always like Pack at Lambeau, where they’re 7-0, and love Aaron Rodgers over Cousins in general but especially in prime time.
[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of mid-afternoon Thursday].
