Week 15 was another tough one as the late-season sledding turns rocky for us. We were an OK 10-6 overall but (ouch) only 4-9-3 against the spread, with the Colts, Cardinals and Chiefs all pushed. Missed two other games by 1 and 2 — meaning I missed a five-game turnaround ATS by six total points. We did at least bull's-eye another Upset of the Week with Cowboys beating 49ers ("Aawwk!"), and also correctly had Washington covering vs. Seattle, but not much else went right. Nothing to do now but shake it off and finish strong! This is our 30th season of picks in the Herald and we thank you for joining us on the ride! Oh, and happy holidays everybody! Told Santa all I wanted for Christmas was an end to COVID, peace on earth and double-digit wins against the spread in Weeks 16 and 17. Let's see if the big guy delivers.
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Week 15: 10-6, .625 overall; 4-9-3, .308 vs. spread.
Season: 142-81-1, 637 overall; 111-108-5, .507 vs. spread.
Final 2019: 169-86-1, .663 overall; 129-120-7, .518 vs. spread.
Final 2018: 179-75-2, .705 overall; 145-104-7, .582 vs. spread
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GREG COTE'S NFL WEEK 16 PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK
UPSET OF THE WEEK
COLTS (10-4) at STEELERS (11-3)
Line: IND by 2.
Cote's pick: PIT 27-21.
"AAAWWWK! Pittsbaawwk!" carols the Upset Bird. "Happy holidays and Merry Christmaawwk!" You want more crazy in a crazy year? I nominate this: Pittsburgh, 11-3 ... and a home 'dog. Three straight losses and a hot, quality opponent will do that. Steelers clinch division title with a win or a Browns loss. Colts clinch playoffs with win, if Ravens or Dolphins lose. Pitt needs and should get a big bounceback game from Ben Roethlisberger, who has thrown a pick in five consecutive games. Also like Steelers' D limiting RB Jonathan Taylor and getting in Philip Rivers' pocket. Also; Steelers have beaten Colts six straight times — and 15 of past 16 at home in series. Mostly, just cannot see a team this good, at home, losing a fourth game in a row. "Fourth game in a raawwk," nods U-Bird, now wearing a Nat King Cole sweater. "Chestnuts roasting on an open fire, Jack Frost nipping at your nose. Yuletide carols being sung by a choir, and folks dressed up like Eskimaaawwwk!"
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THE REST OF WEEK 16:
@Saints (10-4, -7) over Vikings (6-8), 30-16: This Friday matinee is NFL's 22nd Christmas Day game since the 1970 merger, but hardly a must-watch to lure you away from last-minute shopping. Saints clinch division title with win (or Bucs loss) and should do so to avenge last season's upset loss to Vikes in wild-card playoffs. Minnesota is somehow still mathematically alive for postseason, surely an indictment of math. Expect a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara as rusty Drew Brees reclaims his rhythm and N'Awlins halts a rare two-game skid.
Buccaneers (9-5, -10) over @Lions (5-9), 34-23: Tampa Bay clinches its first playoff ticket since 2007 with a win (or Bears' loss), and will do so in this first of three Saturday games as Tom Brady starts his 298th career game to tie Brett Favre's QB record. Safest bet might be bombs bursting in air, a Brady-Matthew Stafford shootout and the 'over' on 54.
@Cardinals (8-6, -5) over 49ers (5-9), 23-20: Middle of Saturdays' three games finds 'Zona clinging to final NFC playoff spot and able to clinch with win here (if Bears lose). Niners should get a little bump with C.J. Beathard starting at QB for awful Nick Mullens. Leaning Frans with the points.
Dolphins (9-5) over @Raiders, 30-20: I of little faith picked Dolphins to lose to New England last week and took a big L. Well, I'm nervous for Miami again in this prime-time end to NFL Week 16's Saturday tripleheader. High stakes for sure. Miami hangs onto seventh and last AFC playoff ticket and can ill afford a loss here. Vegas, with more time to prepare after playing last Thursday, needs a win and a miracle. A wrench in this pick: QB Derek Carr (groin) is iffy, with Marcus Mariota in the wings. Carr is better but Mariota offers more of a dual-threat with the run. Either way, Raiders' offense will struggle vs. Fins D. And Vegas' defense should be little match for a Dolphins attack that hopes to have back RB Myles Gaskin as well as top receivers DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki and Jakeem Grant. That could make it a big-numbers night for rookie Tua Tagovailoa. So why am I nervous for Miami? A) Vegas is home and Jon Gruden is as desperate to win as a man can be. And B) Following the Dolphins closely the past 20 years has made me mistrust the idea of good things happening. Still, there are two comparatively productive offenses in this game but only one quality defense — one great defense vs. one awful one, actually. That's enough to steer any pick with some confidence.
@Chiefs (13-1, -10 1/2) over Falcons (4-10), 34-24: Champion Chiefs clinch first-round bye with win (or if Steelers or Bills lose). Book it. But will KC get back on the Rout Train? They ride an 0-5-1 skid against the spread with a string of narrow wins. This feels like another, with Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley well-armed to hang around in a shootout.
Browns (10-4, -10) over @Jets (1-13), 28-13: NYJ got off the winless schneid with the upset of the season in shocking Rams last week, a Pyrrhic victory that saw them relinquish the draft lead in the Trevor Lawrence Sweepstakes. Jets showing life and the stakes here will bring CLE's best effort. Earthtones can clinch first playoff spot since 2002 with a win if Ravens Dolphins or Colts lose.
Bears (7-7, -7 1/2) over @Jaguars (1-13), 27-17: Chitown is odd-team-out in NFC playoff chase but will have a shot if they win out and get a peck of luck. Jaguars were just handed the best Christmas gift ever, Trevor Lawrence with a bow on his head, and wouldn't dare blow it by winning here. (Would they!?)
@Ravens (9-5, -10 1/2) over Giants (5-9), 24-16: Baltimore's offense has come alive in its three-game win streak and this is a must-have result — with Miami right now owning tiebreaker over Ravens for final AFC playoff spot. NYG struggles with the ball but does enough right on defense to keep this one (fairly) close.
@Texans (4-10, -8) over Bengals (3-10-1), 28-21: One of only two Week 16 games (DEN-LAC) with zero bearing on playoff picture. Cincy coming off a shocking Monday win over Pittsburgh but should fall back down to earth on road on a short week. Hunch 'Gals stay close, though.
@Washington (6-8, -2 1/2) over Panthers (4-10), 23-13: Hard to believe but the D.C. No-Names will clinch NFC East crown with a win, if Giants lose. Washington was hopeful QB Alex Smith would return to replace Dwayne (Strip Club) Haskins, and that RB Antonio Gibson also would be back. That and strong defense will be enough.
@Chargers (5-9, -3 1/2) over Broncos (5-9), 27-18: The Bolts have stacked back-to-back wins and have rest/prep edge here after playing last Thursday LAC, led by rookie Justin Herbert, is finishing stronger than Denver. Tempted by that extra half-point on the bet-line, but Chargers have enough pop on offense to cover.
@Cowboys (5-9, +2) over Eagles (4-9-1), 34-31: Jalen Hurts has played well in two starts replacing benched Carson Wentz (505 pass yards, four TDs, 169 yards running), but he's no panacea for a team on a 1-5 skid. Cowboys have won two straight, a healthy Andy Dalton the difference. 'Boys also expect Ezekiel Elliott back. Upset!
@Seahawks (10-4, -1 1/2) over Rams (9-5), 24-20: Game of the Week candidate sees Seattle able to clinch division title with a win, and Rams able to clinch playoff spot with a win, or with a Bears loss or Cardinals win. Little doubt LAR will bounce back with big effort after last week's colossal embarrassment vs. Jets. But Russell Wilson and Seattle have more offensive pop and are much better at home — including a 12-3 home run vs. rival Rams.
@Packers (11-3, -3 1/2) over Titans (10-4), 38-31: More GOTW quality in this Sunday prime-timer, with both teams hot 'n rolling. Gee Bees clinch first-round bye with a win, if Seattle loses. Tennessee clinches playoffs with a win, and division title with a win if Indy loses. Titans are only fifth team ever to have 30-plus points and 420-plus yards in five straight games, but GB is as good on the scoring end and better on D. The question: Which opponent will do better job in limiting Aaron Rodgers and Derrick Henry? Sticking with Pack at Lambeau on a 6-0 run in prime time.
Bills (11-3, -7) over @Patriots (6-8), 23-20: Plenty of intrigue here as the season's final Monday night game wraps up Christmas week in the NFL. Once-lowly Buffalo reigns as AFC East champ for first time since 1995. Once-mighty New England is out of playoffs for first time in 11 years. Pat have dominated this series for years. How about now? Star WR Stefon Diggs (foot) is iffy, but if he plays there will be no Stephon Gilmore to guard him. Still, count on Bill Belichick to find ways to limit Josh Allen and keep this competitive..
(Point spreads used are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Thursday morning.)
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