Not unlike the Miami Dolphins, we’ve flipped the season narrative thanks to a mighty second-half surge that continued last week with a solid 10-4 mark overall and 9-5 against the spread. The crown jewel of our comeback: Rams winning at Arizona Monday night was our sixth (!) outright Upset of the Week bull’s-eye in a row. Tough enough getting one. Two or three straight would be rare. We’re at six ... and counting. We also had Ravens-with-points covering at Cleveland last week. This has been a tough year setting NFL records for close games and unpredictability. A record 28 games have been decided on the final play. The 24 teams with six-plus wins right now are the most ever. Yet despite the raging parity our overall season won-lost record would tie for third best on the 11-person ESPN Experts Panel. Thanks for being along with us on the wild ride. Let’s keep it rollin’!
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Week 14: 10-4, .714 overall; 9-5, .643 vs. spread.
Season: 130-77-1, .628 overall; 108-98-2, .524 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 15 PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK
PACKERS (10-3) at RAVENS (8-5)
Line: GB by 6.
Cote’s pick: GB 27-23.
TV: 4:25 p.m., Fox.
Light on scintillating Week 15 matchups but this one edges Pats-Colts for GOTW. Atop the marquee: First ever meeting between 2019 league MVP Lamar Jackson and ‘20 MVP Aaron Rodgers — presuming Jackson (ankle; iffy) is able to play. Doubts about that (Jackson did not practice Thursday) are why the bet-line is plump, and why I like the Gee Bees. Packers clinch division title with win or Vikings loss. Ravens have won 10 in a row vs. NFC teams and won five of past six as a home dog. Even with the dice roll on Jackson playing, like Crows to cover, at home, getting almost a touchdown.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
PATRIOTS (9-4) at COLTS (7-6)
Line: IND by 2 1/2.
Cote’s pick: NE, 28-20.
TV: 8:15 p.m. Saturday, NFL.
“AAAWWWK!” carols the Upset Bird. “Wait. Bill Belichick on a seven-game winning streak is the underdog!? “ That’s right. Belichick’s Pats are hottest team in league, they are 6-0 on the road, and they are getting points. Well don’t twist my arm or anything! Should be a great one for prime time, though, with both teams coming off byes and with Indy and Jonathan Taylor a formidable foe. Give me New England for one big reason: Defense. Pats’ D has allowed three points in the second half -- total -- in past five games. Pats have rival Bills on deck but Belichick is too good to let minds wander past Colts. By the way, did I mention we’ve hit six Upset of the Week bull’s-eyes in a row, and that this would be the seventh straight? “You’re welcome,” says U-Bird, with an iridescent blush. “Six in a raaawwwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 15:
@Browns (7-6, +1) over Raiders (6-7), 20-17: Saturday’s early game is near pick’-em, but Browns being home dogs however slightly strikes us an overreaction to Cleveland’s COVID issues. Example, if Case Keenum must sub in for Baker Mayfield, is that even a drop-off? (RB Kareem Hunt’s likely absence is more significant). Browns are stout at home (5-2), and their defense will carry the miniupset vs. reeling Vegas squad on a 1-5 skid.
@Bills (7-6, -10 1/2) ) over Panthers (5-8), 30-16: So much for Buffs taking over the AFC East while Pats faded, right? Bills aren’t even a playoff lock after three losses in past four games, but should sail comfortably here presuming QB Josh Allen (turf toe) plays as expected.
Cardinals (10-3, -13) over @Lions (1-11-1), 28-16: Zona rolls into Motown 7-0 on road and will fly home still perfect away after a playoff-clinching win. Cardbirds played Monday night and are missing WR DeAndre Hopkins, but neither will be the difference vs. this foe. Like a home cover, though, by Lions team still playing hard.
@Dolpins (6-7, -9 1/2) over Jets (3-10), 23-18: Have five wins in a row made us trust the Dolphins yet, or are Dolfans still waiting for the blindside sucker punch? Waiting to be let down again? The hated rival Jets, with Miami a season high 9 1/2-point favorite, would be the perfect time for the collapse, right? Especially with several key players including Jaylen Waddle and Myles Gaskin in COVID protocol and iffy to play. Safety Javon Holland is out as well. Fins defense simply overdue an off game, that point spread is feeling awfully big for what I see as a points-shy game.
Cowboys (9-4, -11) over @Giants (4-9), 24-16: Boys clinch NFC East title with a win if Washington loses. Dallas is on an 8-1 roll in this rivalry, including a 44-20 October win, and even a slumping Dak Prescott can outscore Mike Glennon. But chance Biggies at home getting double digits.
@Eagles (6-7, -8 1/2) over Washington (6-7), 23-21: Taylor Heinicke and Jalen Hurts are banged up, but both should play in a matchup that allows the winner to still think wild-card hunt. Eagles are coming off a bye while Washington is hurt by COVID protocols. Like Birds in the home nest, but Washers’ stout run defense will limit Philly’s strength and keep this close.
@Steelers (6-6-1, +1) over Titans (9-4), 19-16: Miniupset! Tennessee clinches division title with win if Indy loses, but Pitt will get in the way. Steelers have rest edge after playing last Thursday and hope to have top defender T.J. Watt back. Pittsburgh is on a 4-0-1 run at home and has won five straight games as a home dog. But counting on the Ben of old to show up, not the old Ben.
@Jaguars (2-11, -5) over Texans (2-11), 17-14: The most interesting thing about this game is that fired Urban Meyer won’t be a part of it. The sacking should give Jax a little home bump if only because, at these depths, where else you gonna go but up? But Houston is on 7-0 run in series and an upset would not surprise. Jags should not be favored by five points over anybody, with possible exception of FIU.
@Broncos (7-6, -2 1/2) over Bengals (7-6), 24-20: A huge game in the bunched AFC wild-card chase. And a tough call, but I like this as a venue pick. Mile High a tough place to visit in December, and the hosts quietly have the No. 2 scoring defense in the NFL. Oh, and Cincy has won only three of its past 23 games as an underdog on the road.
@49ers (7-6, -9 1/2) over Falcons (6-7), 27-21: Niners coach Kyle Shanahan was Matt Ryan’s offensive coordinator in Atlanta for years, so should be well-schooled in how best to defend him. But that feeds Ryan incentive, too. Dirty Birds have been good on road (5-2) and should keep this inside an inflated betting number.
@Rams (9-4, -4 1/2) over Seahawks (5-8), 27-24: Rams clinch playoffs with a win, if Saints and Vikings both lose. L.A. is coming off a Monday win, and, since Week 13 of last year, teams that win on MNF are 16-0-1 the following game. This won’t be easy, though, with a dozen-plus Rams in COVID protocol including Odell Beckham Jr. and Jalen Ramsey, and with Aaron Donald iffy with a knee injury. Don’t be shocked if Russell Wilson swoops in to pinch an outright upset. I’ll settle for ‘Hawks with points.
@Buccaneers (10-3, -11) over Saints (6-7), 34-17: The Sunday night sales pitch will be that N’Awlins is Tampa Bay’s nemesis, because Tom Brady as a Buc is 0-3 vs. Saints in regular season. Now forget all that. Tampa can clinch division title with a win —- and will. Bucs have won four straight. Saints had lost five in a row before beating the lowly Jets. TB is 6-0 at home and has topped 30 points every time. Rout.
Vikings (6-7, -3 1/2) @Bears (4-9), 24-21: You can’t be sure which Vikings team will show for this Monday nighter, which alone makes home-’dog Bears viable for a cover if not an outright upset. But Minnesota is better rested after playing last Thursday, and resurgent Dalvin Cook looks like a strong matchup vs. Chitown’s run defense. Still hunching Bears with that extra half-point on the bet-line.
[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of mid-afternoon Thursday].
