Tough season so far, but a few seeds of hope sown last week. Went a solid 9-4-1 straight-up (with the Lions-Steelers tie), and an even 7-7 against the evil betting line. Bull’s-eyed our Upset of the Week with 49ers beating Rams Monday night (“Aawwk!”) and nailed a second outright upset with Vikings’ win at Chargers. Also had Washington-plus-points covering vs. Buccaneers. Wrote that Philly had a big upset shot at Denver but unfortunately didn’t pull the trigger. Got a bit unlucky with Carolina-Arizona. Wrote that Panthers looked good to cover if Kyler Murray didn’t play. He didn’t, but I was stuck with the pick that presumed he would. Oh well. Lots of climbing to do, but lots of weeks still ahead. [Note: Thursday night pick was Patriots (-7) over @Falcons, 31-16.]
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Week 10: 9-4-1, .692 overall; 7-7, .500 vs. spread.
Season: 89-60-1, .597 overall; 71-77-2, .480 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 11 PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK
COWBOYS (7-2) at CHIEFS (6-4)
Line: KC by 2 1/2.
Cote’s pick: DAL, 38-35.
TV: 4:25 p.m., Fox.
Easy call for the GOTW committee. Playoff teams. Star-laden rosters. Even game/tough call. And the prospect of a shootout. (Oh, and an upset. Aawwk!). What else you want!? This game offers the sixth-most combined offensive yards of any game played this late in a season since 1950. And it’s the first time since 1995 a game has featured the season leader in passer rating (Dak Prescott) vs. the career leader (Patrick Mahomes). KC’s defense has been much better the past three games, but I still give Dallas the edge on both sides of the scrimmage line. Full transparency: My gut said Chiefs initially and for most of the week, but I let logic sway me to Cowboys — the kind of change of mind I superstitiously try very hard to avoid. Let’s see if it comes back to bite me.
UPSET OF THE WEEK
WASHINGTON (3-6) at PANTHERS (5-5)
Line: CAR by 3 1/2.
Cote’s pick: WAS, 23-20.
TV: 1 p.m., Fox.
“AAAWWWK!” sings the Upset Bird. “Washingtaaawwwk!” An otherwise ho-hum matchup is spiced by Washington coach Ron Rivera’s first time facing the team that fired him in 2019. And by QB Cam Newton, reunited with Carolina, expected to start vs. his former coach. Panthers benefit from Christian McCaffrey being healthy again, while No-Names are hurt by DE Chase Young’s injury — but I still fancy an upset. Carolina is on a 1-6 skid as a home favorite. Washington’s defense has played much better the past few weeks, and nobody knows Cam’s game better than Riverboat Ron. “Any team that just beat Tom Brady can handle Cam,” adds U-Bird. “Riverboat Raaawwwk!”
THE REST OF WEEK 11:
Dolphins (3-7, -3) over @Jets (2-7), 31-23: Miami is on an 8-2 run in this division rivalry, including 3-1 under coach Brian Flores. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is back starting. And the maladroit Jets defense has given up 45 points in two straight games. Miami will win unless turnovers give it away, or unless Miami reprises a tendency to play down the an opponent’s level. Veteran Joe Flacco won’t be rattled by the Dolphins’ blitz-heavy defense, but he will be an old, immobile target for said pressure.
@Bills (6-3, -7 1/2) over Colts (5-5), 27-20: Indy’s Jonathan Taylor is really good. He’s why Colts have won two straight and four of past five. He’s about to become only fourth RB with 1,000-plus yards and 10-plus TDs each of first two seasons, joining Adrian Peterson, Clinton Portis and LaDainian Tomlinson. Buffs’ D will limit him; still, hunching Colts sneak inside a bloated betting line.
Ravens (6-3, -4 1/2) over @Bears (3-6), 23-20: Baltimore itches for a win to help erase that awful Thursday showing vs. Miami last week, while Chitown had a bye to marinate in a four-game losing streak. Not big on interconference trends, but Lamar Jackson’s 12-0 record vs. NFC teams gets your attention. Look for bounce-back win for L-Jack and Crows, but Bears to stay close.
@Browns (5-5, -11 1/2) over Lions (0-8-1), 30-13: Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff are less than healthy but both are expected to play. Cleveland is fighting through a 2-4 slump while winless Motown got out the ticker-tape for last week’s tie. Earthtones get big and needed lift from expected return of RB Nick Chubb, who will scissor thorugh a weak Lions run D.
Titans (8-2, -10) over Texans (1-8), 32-16: Houston is coming off a bye week and Tennessee could be peeking ahead to next week’s trip to New England. But the disparity here is such none of that should matter. Titans have won six straight, Texans have lost eight in a row, and those streaks will continue.
Packers (8-2, -1) over @Vikings (4-5), 27-18: Pack has won three of past four in this division rivalry including two straight trips to Minny entering this near-pick ‘em game. Kirk Cousins if he’s on give Purples a big chance, but I’m riding with Gee Bees’ defense. Aaron Rodgers gloms all the attention, but Packers’ D is really good, as Russell Wilson and Seahawks were reminded in last week’s shutout.
@Eagles (4-6, -2) over Saints (5-4), 23-20: N’Awlins is mistake-prone but has a big upset shot, especially if Alvin Kamara returns from a knee injury as they hope. And Saints have become a reliable travel team, on a 16-4 road run. But Eagles are coming off a big win in Denver, Jalen Hurts is finding a groove, and, with an 0-4 record at home, hunch Philly fans are overdue a good cheer.
49ers (4-5, -6) over @Jaguars (2-7), 21-17: San Fran faces a letdown risk here after Monday night’s big (and hugely impressive) upset win over Rams. And Jax has improved since an 0-5 start, even though overall No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence continues to struggle on his maiden NFL voyage. SF has won 15 of last 21 road games, and Jags are on an 0-13 skid vs. NFC teams, but still like it close with a home cover.
Bengals (5-4, -1) over @Raiders (5-4), 28-20: Here are two teams on two-game losing streaks trying to find their misplaced mojo. Cincy has Steelers on deck but surely cannot afford a look ahead in a near-pick ‘em game on the road. Coming off a bye, Gals enjoy big prep/rest edge after Vegas played last Sunday night. And Derek Carr and Raiders’ offense have suffered hugely from sudden loss of dynamic WR Henry Ruggs III.
@Seahawks (3-6, +2 1/2) over Cardinals (8-2), 27-23: Upset! (“Aawwk!”) Russell Wilson was under siege in a 17-0 loss to Packers last week in his return from a finger injury. Expect less pocket pressure and a majorly better performance from Russ this week. On the other side, Kyler Murray (high ankle sprain) and DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring) are iffy to play and may be hampered even if they do. Also, I’m a law-of-averages guy, and Zona’s 5-0 road record and Hawks’ 1-3 home mark are aberrant numbers looking for balance.
@Chargers (5-4, -6) over Steelers (5-3-1), 19-16: Sunday night stage gets a couple of playoff-hunting AFC squads, Pitt with the edge on defense, LAC with edge on O. Justin Herbert has been pretty ordinary during team’s 1-3 swoon, but give Bolts the nod based on home field — and mostly on Steelers’ personnel questions. Ben Roethlisberger was iffy as of Thursday to be cleared from COVID-19 list, Minkah Fitzpatrick is likely out for same reason, and T.J. Watt (knee/hip) also was questionable. Still like Pitt to cover, with Najee Harris feast-bound vs. Chargers’ league-worst run defense.
@Buccaneers (6-3, -11 1/2) over Giants (3-6), 38-17: Monday night serves up our last NFL taste before the Thanksgiving tripleheader, and there’s plenty to fill the marquee even if the game isn’t close. Tom Brady and the champion Bucs have lost two in a row, and now face the team that twice beat Brady’s Patriots in Super Bowls. Giants have played better lately and, coming off a bye, hope to have RB Saquon Barkley back, albeit to face a rugged TB run D.. Bucs are 4-0 at home and won’t drop a third straight.
[Note: Betting lines are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of mid-afternoon Thursday] .
Bye weeks:
Broncos (5-5; next vs. Chargers): Denver fell to Philly as home favorites after two straight wins, and now prepares for big AFC West match vs. Justin Herbert and LAC.
Rams (7-3; next @Packers): Monday’s division loss to Niners as road favorites was second straight for L.A., with a tough one on deck vs. Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field.
