NFL WEEK 10
GREG COTE’S THURSDAY PICK
RAVENS (6-2) at DOLPHINS (2-7)
Line: BAL by 7 1/2.
Cote’s pick: BAL, 34-16.
TV: 8:20 p.m. Thursday, Fox/NFL.
Life is a constant reminder that almost anything is possible. A game-show host can be U.S. president. Adam Sandler can have a successful acting career. The Jaguars can beat the Bills. Anything can happen, right? Well, sorry, but no. I can’t outspend Jeff Bezos, for example. Which brings us to Ravens at Dolphins on Thursday night. Baltimore has won the past three meetings by a combined score of 137-16. (You read that right). The most recent meeting in 2019, coach Brian Flores’ first season, was 59-10. Ravens qualify as a nemesis team and a really bad matchup for Miami. Baltimore has Lamar Jackson and NFL’s No. 1-ranked ground game. Fins have an offense that has failed in seven of nine games to top 20 points. Ravens are beatable at times on defense, but, again, Miami’s offense stinks. And that’s with Tua Tagovailoa, whose finger injury made it seem likely Wednesday he would miss a second straight game. That leaves Jacoby Brissett, weak pass protection and a quicksand running game — a brutal combination. Miami somehow beat Houston last week despite five (!) turnovers. To best Baltimore will take a near-perfect game from the Dolphins, and even that might not be enough. Baltimore is a good road team (15-4 run), has covered the spread nine straight times vs. Fins, and is on a 15-1 roll vs. sub-.500 teams — and by an average winning margin of 16.9 points. In a wide-open AFC, the Ravens are very much in play to reach the Super Bowl. I wish I could be more hopeful (because anything can happen,right?), but the chances of an upset win by Miami are only slightly better than the likelihood Sandler’s next role will win him an Oscar.
[Note: Betting line courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of midday Wednesday.]
