NFL WEEK 11
GREG COTE’S THURSDAY PICK
PATRIOTS (6-4) at FALCONS (4-5)
Line: NE by 7.
Cote’s pick: NE, 31-16.
TV: 8:20 p.m. Thursday, Fox/NFL.
In the 2016 season Super Bowl, Atlanta led New England 28-3 in the middle of the third quarter before an epic, infamous collapse and a 34-28 loss. Matt Ryan’s Falcons have been in gradual decline ever since — and will get nothing but more misery out of this Thursday night rematch to kick off NFL Week 11. Bill Belichick’s post-Brady Patriots and rookie QB Mac Jones are surging with four straight wins by an average 25-point margin. Erratic ATL, one week after beating Saints, got blown out, 43-3, in Dallas on Sunday. Patriots, oddly, have won only two of past 10 prime-time games, but that’s a trend poised to end. Pats have won six straight in series, and Falcons are on a 1-6 skid as home dogs. Unpredictability of Atlanta and Ryan’s upside make the plus-seven tempting here, but I love Belichick vs. rookie coach Arthur Smith on a short week. Coach G.O.A.T. will scheme to take away Ryan’s favorite target, TE Kyle Pitts. And, with Falcons RB Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle; game-time decision) seeming unlikely to play, it could be a long night in the home nest for Ryan and the Dirty Birds.
[Note: Betting line courtesy Caesars Sportsbook as of midday Wednesday.]
