Ouch. Got skunked in the AFC and NFC finals, mistakenly counting on Aaron Rodgers and (for some reason I’d like to blame on an adverse reaction to medication) Josh Allen. But let’s not dwell on the past. If it were better, we’d dwell. Exalt, even. Instead, we can only move on. This wraps up our 30th season of NFL picks in the Miami Herald and we thank you for joining us one again on the ride. Let’s on a high note, shall we?
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Championship Round: 0-2, .000 overall; 0-2, .000 vs. spread.
Playoffs: 7-5, .583 overall; 5-7, .417 vs. spread.
Final 2020: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
Final 2019: 169-86-1, .663 overall; 129-120-7, .518 vs. spread.
Final 2018: 179-75-2, .705 overall; 145-104-7, .582 vs. spread.
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The NFL somehow managed to survive this pandemic season with zero games canceled and only five even postponed, and, now, like a reward at the end, we get a Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl. We get the greatest champion in league history vs. the young, reigning king. So who wins? Right out front here, the safest play for me might be the ‘over’ on 56, because I do not see two pretty-good-but-fallible defenses stopping two offenses capable of being unstoppably great. The harder job is settling on who’ll win outright and against that stubborn and steady 3-point betting line favoring the Chiefs, a number that has nudged to 3 1/2 at some sportsbooks but not many. Not only would a Tampa Bay win not surprise me, I see it as about dead-even likely. I was going back and forth on this pick like eyes at a tennis match.
— The case for the Bucs — Well, Mr. Brady, no duh, in his 10th SB and after his seventh ring. The untouchable G.O.A.T. Tampa is the first team ever to play an SB in its home stadium, and is better on both the offensive and defensive lines. The Bucs expect to have top LB Lavonte David back, and have a chance to pressure Mahomes without blitzing thanks to KC missing both its top tackles including left-side guardian Eric Fisher. And history makes the odds against the Chiefs winning a second straight crown. Back-to-back hasn’t happened in King Sport since 2003-04 when the Pats — and Brady — did it.
— The case for the Chiefs — Start with Mahomes and Andy Reid. Chiefs beat Bucs in ate November. It was by only 27-24, but KC dominated time of possession and Mahomes pitched for 462 yards — 269 to Tyreek Hill. Chiefs’ speed led by Hill is a big edge over Bucs‘ secondary. KC is better in the kicking game and special teams. And two weeks off to heal his injured toe should give Mahomes the added mobility to help offset the absence of his two best tackles. And with the very notable exception of Brady, the Bucs surrounding him are no match for the Chiefs’ overall postseason experience.
— And the winner is... — The only result that would surprise is a 17-14 type defensive scrum. The Chiefs are 15-4-1 against the spread in their past 20 games when favored by 3 or less, and proved in the second half of the season they know how to win close games. Truth be known, my gut feeling was to pick Tampa to win, but the reason for KC kept arguing otherwise. The NFL is due for another back-to-back champion. Brady has had his day, his decades. It’s Mahomes’ time now time now.
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GREG COTE’S SUPER BOWL 55 PICK
NFL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
BUCCANEERS (14-5) vs. CHIEFS (16-2)
Line: KC by 3.
Cote’s pick: KC, 34-27.
