Well, Week 17 was better to us than it was to the Miami Dolphins, put it that way. We finished the regular season strong. Our 12-4 mark lifted us up over the .650 plateau overall for the year, which is sort of our unofficial acceptable base. Our 9-6-1 finish against the point spread left us at .520 for the year ATS, a tick better than last year despite this strangest, most unpredictable of pandemic season. We kept our hot hand on Upset of the Week picks, nailing another with Rams over Cardinals ("Aawwk!"). Also had a quartet of 'dogs-with-points in covers by the Steelers, Lions, Broncos and Texans. (The push was Indy's 14-point win). Now it's time to surf a hot streak all the way to the Super Bowl. Because, unlike the Dolphins ... we're on to the playoffs!
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Week 17: 12-4, .750 overall; 9-6-1, .600 vs. spread.
Final Season: 166-89-1, .651 overall; 130-120-6, .520 vs. spread.
Final 2019: 169-86-1, .663 overall; 129-120-7, .518 vs. spread.
Final 2018: 179-75-2, .705 overall; 145-104-7, .582 vs. spread.
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GREG COTE'S NFL WILD CARD PLAYOFF PICKS
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AFC
COLTS (11-5, No. 7 seed) at BILLS (13-3, No. 2)
Line: BUF by 6 1/2.
Cote's pick: BUF 31-20.
TV: 1:05 p.m. Saturday, CBS.
As if by design, the Super Wild-Card Weekend playoffs — super because it's the first time with three games each day — kick off Saturday in a way that provides maximum torture to Miami Dolphins fans. With a matchup that features the two teams that most kept the 10-6 Fins out of the playoffs — Buffalo with that 56-26 closing slaughter of Miami, and Indy winning when a Colts loss was the Dolphins' last hope to sneak in. Smokin' hot Buffs are seeking their first postseason win since 1995 in their first home playoff game in 25 years. Fans will even be there, albeit a sparse pandemic crowd. The Colts' best hope is to get RB Jonathan Taylor going (253 yards rushing last week) and keep the ball out of Josh Allen's hands. It isn't anything I'd bet on. Bills may be missing WR Cole Beasley again, but Stefon Diggs looks like he'll be ready to go for a percolating offense that has risen to elite status. (Just as the Dolphins defense). Oh, and you're taking a dome team and dropping it into a Buffalo winter with temps expected in the 26-36 range. It doesn't make one warm up to the Colts' chances here.
RAVENS (11-5, No. 5) at TITANS (11-5, No. 4)
Line: BAL by 3.
Cote's pick: BAL 34-26.
TV: 1:05 p.m. Sunday, ABC/ESPN.
NFL football is an airborne, let-it-fly brand. Here's the refreshing antidote: Two teams that got here with ground warfare. Baltimore's J.K. Dobbins-led running game averaged 192 yards per game to lead the league. Tennessee was second behind NFL rushing leader Derrick Henry. It's why QB Lamar Jackson's arm is less important than his legs. It's why Ryan Tannehill is most valuable when handing off. So the question is whose defense is better-suited to stopping the run? Answer: Ravens, although Henry seems unstoppable, period. Revenge is among the Ravens' motivations, and edges, in the startup to Sunday's tripleheader. Titans beat Crows, 30-24, in OT in November — after unexpectedly ousting Baltimore from the playoffs, 28-12, last season. That left Jackson 0-2 in the postseason, a big smudge in dire need of remedy. Revenge factor aside, on recent form the Titans make a tempting home 'dog. The Upset Alert is activated. Be wary, though. Tennessee has lost 22 of its past 28 games as a home favorite. And Baltimore is too good to lose three straight within 12 months to the same foe.
BROWNS (11-5, No. 6) at STEELERS (12-4, No. 3)
Line: PIT by 6.
Cote's pick: PIT 27-16.
TV: 8:15 p.m. Sunday, NBC.
Cleveland will be missing head coach Kevin Stefanski, two assistants and two players including Pro Bowl guard Joe Bitonio because of COVID-19 — not ideally how a team wishes to enter its first postseason since 2002. Then again Pittsburgh coming in on a 1-4 skid after an 11-0 start isn't exactly the definition of momentum, either. Browns beat Steelers just last week, 24-22, but Ben Roethlisberger and other key starters sat and rested. Um, they'll play in Sunday's prime-time rematch. It's why bettors jumped on Steeltown to jack the point spread from four to six. Also, Pitt was 7-1 at home this season and is on a 13-3-1 series run vs Earthtones. Frankly, I don't know how Browns won 11 games this season. They're average in scoring offense, below that on defense, and had a minus-11 points differential. (Miami was plus-66). This is an overrated Browns team, and a playoff-tested Steelers squad poised to shake off its late-season lull. I trust Roethlisberger in January more than I trust Baker Mayfield. Mostly, I trust this Steelers defense, at home, to rise up and be the difference.
BYE
Chiefs (14-2; No. 1 AFC seed): On a 10-game win steak, KC opted to end season sitting key starters including Patrick Mahomes and lost to the Chargers. So it hardly counts. Chiefs will be rested, and Andy Reid coming off byes. Will face lowest remaining seed in next round, which, if point spreads hold and favorites win this weekend, would mean a challenging matchup vs. Ravens.
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NFC
RAMS (10-6, No. 6 seed) at SEAHAWKS (12-4, No. 3)
Line: SEA by 3 1/2.
Cote's pick: LAR 20-17.
TV: 4:40 p.m. Saturday, Fox.
Five teams averaged 30-plus points this season, an NFL record. But if you like you some defense as a change of pace, here's your game. Rams led the league in fewest yards and points allowed. Seahawks found their mojo around midseason and haven't allowed more than 23 points in eight straight games. It's why Saturday's middle game has the weekend's smallest over/under. Injury status will weigh heavily here. Rams gets WR Cooper Kupp back off COVID-19 list, and QB Jared Goff (thumb) missed last week but practiced some this week and seems a game-day decision. Seahawks RB Chris Carson and S Jamal Adams both are iffy but hopeful to play. These division rivals have split each of past two seasons but Rams have won five of past seven. I rarely pick against Russell Wilson and Seattle at home, but this is one of those gut feelings that won't go away. Aaron Donald and that Rams defense are the real deal, Wilson has tailed off after a scorching early season, and the possibility Goff plays underlines the whole thing. Upset! ("Aawwk!" says the Upset Bird, even though he typically isn't around beyond the regular season).
BUCCANEERS (11-5, No. 5) at WASHINGTON (7-9, No. 4)
Line: TB by 7 1/2.
Cote's pick: TB 24-16.
TV: 8:15 p.m. Saturday, NBC.
Tom Brady has piloted Tampa Bay into its first playoffs since 2007, and the Bucs understandably are comfortable favorites against a Washington team that won the NFC Least with a losing record. All signs point to Brady bagging his 31st career playoff win. (Next most by a QB: 16 by Joe Montana). Ah, but there's something about the Washington No-Names, the defrock Rs. Their coach, Ron Rivera, battled cancer. Their QB, Alex Smith, came back from a catastrophic leg injury. And that defense! Washington, once 1-5, has held seven straight opponents to 20 points or fewer, and has a secondary that will challenge Brady. (Did the No-Names get here because Philly blatantly tanked to deny the Giants? Holy Nate Sudfeld! Probably. But we digress. And that's moot at this point). It's time for the feel-good Washington tale to end. Tampa's fierce run defense will bottle up Antonio Gibson, and, with Smith and top WR Terry McLauren iffy to play, it's too much of a stretch and a gamble to imagine this 25th-ranked offense finding a way to outscore Brady.
BEARS (8-8, No. 7) at SAINTS (12-4, No. 2)
Line: NO by 9 1/2.
Cote's pick: NO 31-13.
TV: 4:40 p.m. Sunday, CBS.
Sunday's middle game finds N'Awlins the weekend's biggest favorite vs. a Chicago squad that somewhat snuck into the postseason despite a six-game losing streak earlier this season. (Washington and the Bears make the playoffs but the 10-6 Dolphins don't. Oh wicked fate!) Drew Brees' potent offense hopes to have available both RB Alvin Kamara off the COVID-19 list and WR Michael Thomas off the injured reserve list. I'd like Saints here even without Kamara or Thomas. With both, that's too much even for Chicago's solid D. I trust playoff-tested Brees at a time of season when experience does matter. But this pick really turns for me on the other side of the ball. The one where the Bears' rather inept, Mitchell Trubisky-led offense is facing a Saints defense that is really good and led the NFL in forced turnovers. Even if he finds Allen Robinson deep once or twice, it figures as a long, two-or-three-pick kind of day for Trubisky in Sunday's middle game. Bears kept it close in a 26-23 loss to NO in early November, but have lost six straight to Saints. Make it seven. And I'd be surprised if this one was close.
BYE
Packers (13-3, No. 1 NFC seed): Gee Bees routed Chicago to end its season on a nifty six-game win as Aaron Rodgers continued to pick up league MVP points as he overtakes KC's Mahomes as perceived (and betting) favorite for the trophy. Pack will play lowest remaining seed in next round. If favorites all win this weekend, that would mean a fast, favorable rematch vs. division rival Bears.
[Point spreads used are courtesy Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Thursday afternoon.]
