Miami Marlins CEO Derek Jeter and primary owner Bruce Sherman availed themselves to media on a 45-minute Zoom call Monday, and had it been a drinking game and you had the word “progress,” you’d have left that meeting swaying like Tom Brady being helped off a parade boat.
Progress, they want as the fourth season of their ownership unfurls with the start of spring training.
No timetable on that road to sustained winning, no guarantees, no predictions. Just progress, please.
“I’m not one to make guarantees, but I will guarantee you this,” Jeter said with a wry smile. “Our attendance will be higher in ‘21 than it was in ‘20.”
It will indeed. After the pandemic-tossed 2020 season was limited to 60 games and no fans, Jeter announced a “limited capacity just north of 20 percent” would be welcomed back this year starting on Opening Day April 1. That would mean around 8,000 or so per game, should that many fans feel comfortable going with COVID-19 still around.
There are no plans for COVID-sniffing dogs at Marlins Park such as the Miami Heat have.
“Maybe I’ll let one sit outside my house,” kidded Jeter.
Having fans back is hugely important for this ballclub more than most because Jeter/Sherman are doing more than trying to build a winner. They are trying to prove (against prevailing doubt) that Miami can be a baseball town.
Seeing that progress on the field in 2021 will be a big ask.
Nobody expected Miami to have its first winning record in nine years last season and make the playoffs for the first time since 2003 — especially when a COVID outbreak within the team tossed the start of the season upside down.
Played out across a full 162 games in ‘21, Miami’s winning percentage last year would equate to a record of 84-78 this year. If progress means that or better in ‘21, and the playoffs again, that’s a bunch to expect because the rest of the NL East loaded up in the offseason while the Fish tinkered but mostly stood pat.
The Marlins made international news for all the right reasons last November, shattering baseball’s gender barrier by hiring veteran front-office pioneer Kim Ng as MLB’s first female general manager.
The winter lay ahead, the offseason, free agency, when big deals are made and teams make their move.
Kim Ng was poised and ready to be let loose and compete — to chase starpower and make as big a splash with impact signings as she’d made with her arrival.
She never got the chance.
The club had other ideas.
Miami might have opened the company wallet and gone hard after available big-bat sluggers to balance a team that is pitching-strong but needs offensive help.
George Springer was out there. So was Marcell Ozuna. Imagine if Miami had spent to reacquire the former Marlin and poach him from divisional rival Atlanta at the same time? It could have helped change what team is seen as in charge in the NL East.
“They need some serious offensive help,” said ESPN analyst Tim Kurkjian of the Marlins, on our new podcast out Monday.
Instead Ng was only freed to make minor, second-tier offseason deals such as signing former Braves outfielder Adam Duvall to a one-year deal. He’s had 26 home runs in his past 310 at-bats. He’ll help as a quick-fix power surge. Miami added Anthony Bass to its bullpen to close (they hope) in another low-watt deal.
“Our No. 1 priority was adding to our bullpen,” Jeter said.
The Marlins served a reminder this is a franchise banking on its youth, its burgeoning farm system, to be the future.
The master plan asks patience of fans, but it is hard to argue the broad strategy.
Miami ‘s farm system, broken and barren when Jeter and Sherman took over, is now ranked No. 2 in all of MLB by ESPN.com, festooned with six Top 100 prospects led by righty pitcher Sixto Sanchez, who teased and flashed in seven starts last season.
Sandy Alcantara, Sanchez and Pablo Lopez are three strong, young arms at the top of the starting rotation.
The army of prospects rising up behind Sanchez includes middle infielder Jazz Chisholm, righty pitchers Max Meyer and Edward Cabrera, outfielder J.J. Bleday and lefty arm Trevor Rogers.
Brian Anderson is an established ascending star. The Marlins hope Monte Harrison, Isan Diaz and Lewin Diaz will be, too. And Lewis Brinson is still around, trying to catch up with a potential that has proved so elusive.
Bottom line, the Marlins have young talent in various stages of arrival throughout the 40-man roster, suggesting a sustainable future that could prove 2020 — in the playoffs albeit with the extra spot in an expanded postseason, then getting past the Cubs in the wild-card round before losing to the rival and nemesis Braves in the NL Division Series — was the beginning, not a fluke.
That Don Mattingly was named NL manager of the year spoke to both the Marlins’ accomplishment, and the unexpectedness of it.
So why might equaling last season, let only seeing “progress,” be such a tough climb? Here is why:
MLB.com had a “who won the winter” story on the top 10 teams that had the best offseasons. The Marlins didn’t make it. But the rest of the NL East all did.
The Mets (second) gained all-star shortstop Francisco Lindor and pitcher Carlos Carrasco in a blockbuster trade, and re-signed starter Marcus Stroman.
The Nationals (eighth) added Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber’s bats and pitchers Jon Lester and Brad Hand.
The Braves (ninth), off three straight division titles, added ace pitcher Charlie Morton, another startger in Drew Smyly, re-signed Ozuna, and will have starter Mike Soroka back healthy.
The Phillies (10th), with GM Dave Dombrokwski now at the helm, re-signed J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorius and shored their bullpen.
“We have a tough division. It’s no secret,” Jeter said.
This is some of why Miami is pegged to finish fourth of five teams this year via betting lines at oddsshark.com. Even more gloomily, the Marlins are projected for last place and only 68 wins by Baseball Prospectus’ proprietary Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm (PECOTA).
If accurate or close the suggestion is Miami could see the opposite of the progress desired in 2021.
There is no doubt about the outside doubts still surrounding the Marlins, even as the burgeoning farm system and young talent ready to bloom should make fans optimistic.
The sense that last season was a bit of a fluke must be proven wrong.
The idea of Miami as a baseball town must be proven right.
“Last year was a good first step, getting to the postseason. There is a level of excitement and we need to continue to build on that,” Jeter said. “But you talk about sustained success on and off the field — we have to earn it.”
