MIAMI — The Miami Hurricanes have a legitimate shot to shock the college football world Saturday and turn Nick Saban all grumpy by upsetting his mighty Alabama Crimson Tide in the season opener in Atlanta. There, I said it. Even weirder, I mean it.
No. 1 and reigning national champion Bama is a 19 1/2-point favorite over No. 14 UM with good reason. Yes. Alabama has won relentlessly since Saban took over in 2008. Miami has struggled to regain stature since winning its last national title in 2001.
A lot has to go just right for the Canes to beat a No. 1 -ranked opponent for the first time since Florida State in 2000. But there is a path. A map.
Miami is one of the most experienced teams in the sport, returning 19 starters including quarterback D’Eriq King, who is older at 24 than most NFL rookies, has been playing college football since 2016, is healthy again and could be a Heisman contender.
King is the best dual-threat QB ever at Miami. He could be the best playmaker on the field Saturday — and needs to be, for an upset to happen. He has great receivers in Mike Harley and Oklahoma transfer Charleston Rambo, who, besides having a wonderful name, is a game-breaking deep threat. Watch Rambo become UM’s first 1,000-yard receiver since Allen Hurns in 2013.
(Of course King will need a few seconds to operate, which could be tall ask of UM’s offensive line against a fierce Tide front seven including the best linebacking unit in America).
By contrast, this is a young, less experienced Tide team, especially on offense. The Saban recruiting pipeline always replaces talent with talent, but it is hard to imagine there won’t be a falloff or learning curve in an offense that is replacing coordinator Steve Sarkisian, QB Mac Jones, running back Najee Harris, receivers Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle, and three starting offensive linemen.
Five of those seven departed players were NFL first-round draft picks in April.
And Alabama’s least experience at any position is at the most important one.
Bryce (Very) Young just turned 20. He threw 22 passes last season, all in garbage time with Bama mercilessly ahead. Saturday will be his first college start, first time facing a ranked opponent, and first time in a full stadium. Miami’s retooled defense and pass rush have a chance to rattle him, maybe force turnovers.
“Just going back into a full stadium is going to be very emotional compared to where we were a year ago,” Canes coach Manny Diaz said.
Facing Young and a rebuilt Tide offense in the season opener may be to UM’s advantage. An outright upset would be exactly that, but I’d be surprised if Miami didn’t at least beat the large point spread and give ABC viewers a compelling game.
I wonder too if there might be an overconfidence/looking ahead element on Alabama’s part that also might favor UM.
I doubt the Canes are circled as boldly on Saban’s calendar as the Sept. 18 game at No. 13 Florida or the Oct. 9 game at No. 6 Texas A&M. Consider:
While the Canes and Bama haven’t met since 1993, the Gators came closest to beating Saban last season. It was 35-31 entering the fourth quarter and ended 52-46. And you know Saban is aware that A&M coach Jimbo Fisher, addressing a Houston Touchdown Club this summer and referring to Saban, predicted his team would “kick his ass” this season.
Again, the timing might be right for Miami to catch Bama in the opener.
Diaz says having Alabama first on the schedule added “a great sense of urgency for our entire offseason program.” He also embraces the measuring stick element, as his goal is plain: “How do we get us to the next level?”
Asked this week how far away Miami is right now from Alabama’s level, he said: “That’s very difficult to answer because we’re going to play those guys. All we have to do is find a way to be one point better than they are on Saturday. We’re not playing 162 games or a best of seven series. It’s a small-sample-size sport.”
In other words,“We’re about to find out.”
Even if Miami loses as most expect, it’s true in the college game that a loss early is easier to overcome than a loss late, in terms of the polls and jockeying for the College Football Playoff.
I dare mention the four-team CFP because teams ranked No. 14 going in are allowed to dream. Besides, ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Miami the eighth-best shot at making it, after the favored foursome of Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma and Ohio State, and then Georgia, Notre Dame and Texas A&M.
If UM loses Saturday but takes it down to the wire, the poll hit might be very slight. Any respectable loss and Miami should not fall out of the teens — so respected is Alabama. Only a blowout loss defeat might see a major poll dive.
Miami’s schedule after Alabama is easy, with the glaring exception of an Oct. 16 trip to No. 10 North Carolina.
Here is what’s plausible: the Hurricanes lose Saturday but win in Chapel Hill, and reach the ACC Championship Game at 11-1. (I said plausible. Didn’t say likely).
Hey, reality comes quickly, folks. Saturday, perhaps.
You dream while you can.
