Quietly, without broadcasting it, the Miami Dolphins in the buildup to this month’s NFL Draft have reminded anyone paying attention how confident this front office is in its plan and direction. This is a franchise that sees itself close to being playoff-good and sustaining that level — with a vision that smartly isn’t all about right now.
We saw that with the two recent aggressive trades that shook up the first round. The result was Miami bumping down slightly from the third to the sixth overall pick this year but gaining an extra 2023 first-round selection in the process.
That was brilliant because A) it showed a vision to think beyond this year, or next, and B) it was expertly tailored to April 29 in particular. Unless all of the Mel Kiper Jr.s and other draftniks have it dead wrong, the first three players chosen — and maybe the first four — will be quarterbacks. That means the Dolphins knew they would get a player they covet and need even with the dip from the third to the sixth pick.
The several teams wishing to trade up made it a ripe market for the Fins to move down, and they took full advantage.
The first-round maneuvering also verified that coach Brian Flores and general manager Chris Grier have been truthful in their consistent, publicly stated he’s-our-guy faith in second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
The Deshaun Watson megatrade speculation that flared earlier this spring has cooled to near nonexistence (the spate of sexual misconduct allegations against Watson a part of all that). And the willingness to move down from three to six shouts loud that the Dolphins have zero intention of spending a second consecutive No. 1 pick on a quarterback.
The clear aim with the sixth pick should be and will be help for Tagovailoa, building around the faith in him.
With the top pick certain to be Trevor Lawrence to the Jaguars and the next two picks all-but-certain to be Zach Wilson to the Jets and Mac Jones to the 49ers, the draft will get interesting for Dolfans starting with the fourth.
The Falcons picking fourth and the Bengals choosing fifth might well poach players that interest Miami, but with a little luck at least one might not.
Atlanta really likes North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance, and if like turns to love the Falcons drafting him to groom as Matt Ryan’s replacement would make a lot of sense.
Cincinnati is expected to select a wide receiver toy for Joe Burrow to play with, but a trade-down could be very tempting if, say, Carolina, New England or Denver are desperate to move up and select a quarterback such as Lance or Justin Fields.
Here is our “Six at Six” list of players at the top of the Fins’ radar for their first pick, ranked in order:
— Florida tight end Kyle Pitts — Yes, Miami’s 2018 second-round pick Mike Gesicki has developed nicely and is solid. So this is not a position of urgent or dire need. But Pitts is a generational talent. At 6-6 with great hands and great speed, he will be a Sunday matchup nightmare for defensive coordinators, and a BFF for Tua taking the next step. But Miami will need Atlanta to pass on Pitts in favor of its quarterback of the future.
— LSU receiver Ja’Marr Chase — This is the draft’s best, most gifted wide receiver and a physical mismatch for most cornerbacks. The trouble is, Cincinnati thinks so too and likely will grab him to reunite with Burrow, who helped him set SEC receiving records in 2019.
— Alabama receiver DeVonta Smith — Here is Miami’s likeliest top pick at the moment unless they get lucky on Pitts or Chase. With free agent acquisition Will Fuller a one-year rental and DeVante Parker better suited as a second-best wide receiver, Smith would fit perfectly as an elite route runner.. Thirty-seven TD catches and 3,112 receiving yards the past two seasons speak of elite production that would see the Heisman Trophy winner reuniting splendidly with his former Tide mate Tagovailoa.
— Oregon State tackle Penei Sewell — Might be a slight reach at six after he opted out of the 2020 college season, but Sewell is the best blocker in this draft, No. 3 of all players in Todd McShay’s overall rankings. And Miami has a need after allowing 34 sacks last season as opponents blitzed Tua on 35 percent of his dropbacks. One issue here: Could Sewell adapt from left to right to protect his lefty QB’s blind side?
— Alabama receiver Jaylen Waddle — He’s only 5-10 and a bad ankle injury impeded his last season at Bama, but Waddle is a versatile receiver with elite speed and also returns kicks. Some draft boards and mock drafts have him as the second-best WR after Chase.
— The wild-card surprise — I would be shocked if Miami didn’t end up with one of the five players above, but another trade-down cannot be entirely ruled out, in which case the Fins’ first pick could be lower in the round and target one of the players presently on the radar for their 18th overall pick. That could mean an offensive lineman like Northwestern’s Rashawn Slater or Southern Cal’s Alijah Vera-Tucker; Clemson running back Travis Etienne; maybe Penn State inside linebacker Micah Parsons; or an edge rusher — Miami’s Gregry Rousseau, perhaps?
Safest bet three weeks from the draft?
The Dolphins will feel really good about the weapon they get for Tua at sixth overall.
And even better about having gained that extra first round pick in ‘23.
