MIAMI — In 1964, getting somewhat less attention in America at the time than Beatlemania, the U.S. Supreme Court heard a free speech case on whether a French film being shown in Ohio was or wasn’t obscene. That was when Justice Potter Stewart, describing how he defined pornography, famously said, “I know it when I see it.”
So it is with Miami Hurricanes football, and the annual amorphous question of whether or not The U is “back.” What are the parameters that define such a thing? There is no easy answer, but this:
You’ll know it when you see it.
The result of Saturday’s season opener against No. 1 Alabama in Atlanta — whether stunning upset or expected defeat — would not answer the question absolutely. No one game can, although, as Litmus tests go, there may be no better (or brutal) gauge of where your program stands than facing Nick Saban’s dynasty.
The proving, the inching toward “back,” goes on.
Ever since UM bunched those five national championships in its own dynastic run from 1983 to 2001, Canes fans have waited for new glory days. Fortunes fell off sharply when UM joined the Atlantic Coast Conference in 2004. Gone was the freedom of being an independent and later the friendly confines of the lil’ Big East. Welcome to the Power 5, fellas.
Miami since ‘04 has won zero ACC championships and played for the title only once, in 2017, losing 38-3. That’s despite being in the division not including mighty Clemson and rival Florida State.
There have been teases along the way in the 20 years since the halcyon days died, sporadic reasons to keep hope (and “Is The U back”) alive.
Yet, bottom line, Randy Shannon, Al Golden and Mark Richt all failed to accomplish what now is Manny Diaz’s aim: win another national championship.
Because, when your school has won five, anything less means you aren’t back.
Now comes 2021, and I’m not sure if The U is back, but the big tease sure is.
So much is changing so fast in college football. The NCAA is losing its power by degrees. The NIL law (name, image, likeness) means players can now get paid. Texas and Oklahoma are leaving the Big 12. The ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 counter by forming an “alliance.” The College Football Playoff weighs major expansion.
But other things seem never to change.
The dominance of Saban and Alabama. The ACC supremacy of Clemson. And a once-great Miami program, forever searching for a path back to national relevance.
The talent gap is real. Need another reminder? A panel of ESPN experts named the top 100 college players entering this season. Alabama had 10. Clemson had six. Miami had one, quarterback D’Eriq King at 36.
Yet here we are with the big tease ... again.
Miami was No. 14 in The Associated Press preseason poll entering the opener as Diaz dug in for his third season as head coach with the Canes returning 19 of 22 starters — including the ballyhooed King and preseason All-ACC safety Bubba Bolden — from a 10-win team.
The program is his now, and Diaz majorly shook up his defensive staff during the offseason. Recruiting has been solid. King is a star quarterback. The excuses not to win are fewer and fewer.
This is not saying Diaz is or should be feeling job pressure in his third season as boss.
This is saying that job pressure may be on him if this season disappoints.
Two games matter most. Two season-shaping games to say loudest if the Canes are back, or how far away they remain. Ten games look like should-be to better-be wins. The other two will tell:
— The Sept. 4 opener vs. the No. 1 Crimson Tide, of course. Bama was an 18 1/2-point favorites and given an 80.6% likelihood of winning by ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index).
None of which seemed to matter an iota to King.
“I’m a very confident guy. I think we’re going to finish No. 1,” he said before the opener. “I’m never gonna say we’re gonna lose to anybody. I’m looking forward to playing those guys. I’m super-confident.”
— And the Oct. 16 game at No. 10 North Carolina. UNC likely will be a small favorite at home, especially after crushing the Hurricanes, 62-26, in Miami last year. The FPI, though, had UM with an early 53.3% win likelihood.
Odds are the victor there will have a great shot at winning the ACC Coastal Division and meeting Clemson (presumably) for the conference title. The tar Heels are highly regarded on the arm of QB Sam Howell, who is No. 2 on Todd McShay’s ESPN list of the top 50 prospects in the 2022 NFL draft. (UM’s King is not on the list.)
Howell has thrown for 7,227 yards and 68 touchdowns the past two seasons.
The Canes counter with King, the transfer who threw for 2,686 yards and 23 TDs in his first UM season.
Significantly, though, King’s value must be measured not just in the air, but on land. His 538 rushing yards set a UM season record for a QB. The previous highs were 468 by Malik Rosier in 2017 and 439 by Fran Curci (!) in 1957.
Two games. Bama presented the chance to make an immediate, national statement with everybody watching. But UNC looms even larger in terms of ACC stakes.
The standard set for UM football, the ghosts Diaz is chasing, is more than just the five national championships.
Across 21 seasons from 1983-2003, Miami finished 20 times (all but once) in the postseason Top 25 — including 15 top 10s and 12 times in the final top five. The Canes haven’t ended a season in the Top 25 since.
No wonder ESPN recently included Miami among the 12 programs that have been the biggest underachievers over the past 30 years (although the past 20 years would be more accurate and fair).
The biggest of the big teases since the glory days came late in the 2017 season, when Miami was 10-0 and ranked No. 2 nationally, seemingly headed for the College Football Playoff. They ended that season 0-3. In fact, since cresting at 10-0/No. 2 that November of ‘17, the Canes have been a combined 21-19, including 0-4 in bowl games, and including losses to FIU and Louisiana Tech.
The Hurricanes actually have lost 10 of 11 bowl games dating to 2008.
This is not a football program or a fandom that should be laying any claim to swagger until it has earned the right again. Even beating Alabama would not accomplish that. Not with 11 games remaining and the recent history of letdowns a rep that needs erasing.
This is not a program that can proclaim it is back until that status is so indisputable that, well, you’ll know it when you see it.
Check back after the October trip to Chapel Hill to see if The U is moving forward on the road to back, or if this has been the latest big tease, a dream deferred again.
