Voters have dealt a significant blow to the Greens, with the minor party on track to lose several MPs – including potentially its party leader, Adam Bandt – and fall short in other electorates that it had hoped to win from Labor, while several teal independents retained their seats with improved margins and others are on track to win seats previously held by the Coalition.
At the Greens’ election night function in Melbourne, the party faithful had largely tuned out of the election results broadcast, as early results predicted Max Chandler-Mather and Stephen Bates would lose their respective seats of Griffith and Brisbane to Labor.
And in the Brisbane seat of Ryan, the future of Elizabeth Watson-Brown – who, with Chandler-Mather and Bates, won their seats for the Greens for the first time at the 2022 election – was unclear, with early results on a knife-edge.
While Watson-Brown was leading the Liberal candidate on a two-candidate count, with about 50% of the votes counted, preference flows would be key to determining the outcome.
In Melbourne – the seat held by Bandt since 2010 – early results indicated a tight race.
There was little separating Bandt from Labor’s Sarah Witty, with just under 60% of the vote counted. Projections indicated he was at risk of losing the seat depending on preference flows.
Bandt said he expected to retain his seat in a statement issued at about 11.30pm on Saturday.
Elsewhere, Labor’s Josh Burns appeared to comfortably retain his inner-Melbourne seat of Macnamara. The Greens had targeted the seat, but swings away from the minor party and towards the government, and poorer than expected support for the Liberal candidate, favoured Burns.
Though the Greens appeared to have failed to increase their lower house presence from four seats, and instead went backwards, there was some positive news.
The party was ahead in the northern New South Wales seat of Richmond, which covers the Tweed and Byron areas. With about 35% of votes counted, Greens candidate Mandy Nolan appeared to have benefited from a swing away from the government.
Nolan was projected to slightly edge Labor’s Justine Elliot, who has held the seat since 2004, if the preference patterns observed in votes counted early on Saturday night continued.
Greens candidate and former state party leader Samantha Ratnam was still a chance to win the Melbourne seat of Wills from Labor’s incumbent, Peter Khalil, with the result too close to call with 65% of the vote counted on Saturday night.
Bandt acknowledged the Greens’ poor results, but claimed the losses in Brisbane were due to previously Liberal voters turning to Labor. “One of the things that may happen … is some Labor MPs may get elected on Liberal preferences. We will watch with interest and see whether that happens in the coming hours,” he said.
Macnamara, with one of the nation’s highest proportion of Jewish voters, was a seat where party policies towards the Israel-Palestine conflict featured prominently in the campaign. Equally, in Wills, Labor’s position on foreign policy was a key focus for Ratnam’s campaign against Khalil.
Teals gain
Teal independents Allegra Spender and Zali Steggall were set to retain their Sydney seats of Wentworth and Warringah respectively, enjoying swings to see off intense campaigns from female Liberals who failed to win back the former blue ribbon seats.
Also in Sydney, the seat of Bradfield, where retiring Liberal MP Paul Fletcher and a redistribution to take in chunks of teal hotspots from the abolished North Sydney electorate, appeared too close to call on Saturday night.
Teal independent candidate Nicolette Boele slightly led Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian on a two-way count, with final preference distributions projected to come down to the wire as more votes were counted.
However, in Melbourne, teal independents faced a tougher fight.
In Goldstein, incumbent independent Zoe Daniel was ahead of former Liberal MP Tim Wilson for the seat, with a result unclear by the end of Saturday night.
In Kooyong, the current independent MP, Monique Ryan, led Liberal challenger Amelia Hamer with 70% of the votes counted.
In the Perth seat of Curtin, teal independent Kate Chaney, who won the seat at the 2022 election, appeared to face a serious challenge from Liberal candidate Tom White, but was slightly ahead with 63% of the vote counted.
In Mayo in South Australia, longtime crossbencher Rebekha Sharkie retained her seat, enjoying a small swing according to early vote counts.
In the Victorian seat of Wannon, Liberal MP Dan Tehan saw off independent Alex Dyson, a former Triple J radio host and repeat contender for the seat.
In the regional NSW seat of Calare, incumbent Andrew Gee looked set to have edged Nationals challenger and former state politician Sam Farraway.
Gee was first elected as Calare MP in 2016 as a Nationals representative, but resigned from the party to become an independent in protest over the party’s “no” stance during the Indigenous voice to parliament.
In the Tasmanian seat of Franklin, Labor MP Julie Collins saw off a fight from former journalist turned independent candidate Peter George, who had mounted a challenge marked by his opposition to the commercial salmon farming industry in the state.
In the Canberra seat of Bean, Labor MP David Smith was on track to narrowly hold the seat in the face of a challenge from midwife and former journalist turned independent candidate Jessie Price. However, the result appeared too close to call on the night.
Independent Dai Le was on track to edge out Labor’s Tu Le in the Sydney seat of Fowler, but led by less than 900 votes with more than 75% of the count completed.
Labor MPs hold on despite Gaza anger
Labor’s position on the Israel-Palestine conflict was also the impetus for a handful of independent candidates running against the government in Sydney seats with high proportions of Muslim voters.
However, Labor MPs Jason Clare and Tony Burke appeared set to comfortably retain their respective seats of Blaxland and Watson in the face of contests from independents Ahmed Ouf and Ziad Basyouny.
Additional reporting: Henry Belot
