President Trump is trying to pull the rug out from under federal climate regulation. But the U.S. economy may no longer be standing on it.
Why it matters: The energy transition is well underway and is unlikely to be reversed by Thursday's historic move.
The big picture: America's emissions are projected to decline substantially even if major climate regulations are repealed, driven by falling renewable energy prices and cleaner natural gas outcompeting dirtier coal.
Driving the news: The Environmental Protection Agency on Thursday is expected to overturn the 2009 "endangerment finding," which determined that greenhouse gases threaten public health and welfare.
- The finding sets the foundation for federal regulation of climate pollution under the Clean Air Act.
- Issued under President Obama, it reflects the global scientific consensus that greenhouse gases are warming the planet.
Between the lines: The repeal is legally and symbolically seismic. Its real-world impact may be more muted.
- It would likely slow emissions cuts — but not reverse them, according to modeling by the Rhodium Group, a New York-based research firm.
By the numbers: The firm projects that without big EPA rules underpinned by the finding, U.S. emissions in 2035 would be 26-35% below 2005 levels.
- If the rules were intact? A steeper decline of 32-44%.
Reality check: Neither path comes close to what scientists say is needed to avoid the worst climate impacts.
- In its final weeks, the Biden administration set a target of cutting emissions at least 61% by 2035 — roughly aligned with the Paris Agreement's goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels.
Flashback: After years of regulatory whiplash, the finding itself has directly reduced little, if any, emissions since 2009.
- Obama-era rules for vehicles, power plants and oil and gas were delayed, challenged or repealed in Trump's first term.
- Then-President Biden restarted the process. Trump has now begun unwinding things again.
What they're saying: "Although the environmental community has viewed the endangerment finding as the holy grail, it has done very little to reduce greenhouse gas emissions," said Jeff Holmstead, a former top EPA official who's now a partner at the lobbying firm Bracewell, which represents a range of corporate clients.
Yes, but: The finding's influence likely extended beyond formal rules.
- It signaled that federal climate regulation was coming — shaping corporate decisions in ways that are hard to quantify.
"As an energy system modeler, I can only do what's on my spreadsheet. And there's not something that says, 'turn on U.S. leadership on climate,' " said Ben King, a director at Rhodium who was involved in the analysis.
Zoom out: Thursday's action marks the most aggressive move yet in nearly two decades of climate policy ping-pong.
- And it's reigniting debate about the limits of tackling a decades-long problem through these regulatory swings.
"It does point to the risk of basing sweeping and really important policy on fragile foundations," said Josh Freed, senior vice president for the climate and energy program at the center-left think tank Third Way.
What we're watching: Inevitable lawsuits will likely take years to make it to their final destination of the Supreme Court.
- "More importantly, the primary drivers for clean energy generation right now are commercial," said David Goldwyn, president of consulting firm Goldwyn Global Strategies.
- "There is market demand for fast, clean power, especially for data centers, which face formidable license to operate issues."
The bottom line: Decades of state and federal policy, plus market shifts, have pushed the economy toward cleaner energy. So far, Trump's rollback isn't enough to turn it around.
Axios' Ben Geman contributed reporting.
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