When San Francisco hosted Green Bay in the NFL Championship 10 months ago, Jimmy Garoppolo was the 49ers’ quarterback, Raheem Mostert was the running back, George Kittle played tight end, and Deebo Samuel, Kendrick Bourne and Emmanuel Sanders were the wide receivers.
That group helped the 49ers throttle the Packers, 37-20, and reach the 54th Super Bowl. None of those players will be on the field tonight, though, when San Francisco (4-4) hosts Green Bay (5-2) at Levi’s Stadium.
Sanders signed with New Orleans this past offseason. The rest of the 49ers’ standouts are either injured or on the reserve/COVID-19 list.
It’s almost as bad on defense for San Francisco, where defensive linemen Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, Solomon Thomas and Ziggy Ansah, plus cornerback Richard Sherman are all sidelined with injury.
With San Francisco a shell of its terrific 2019 team, Green Bay is a 7-point favorite.
“I’ve got a lot of respect for San Francisco and what they’re able to do, really in every phase,” Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said. “So, we’re going to have to be on top of our game and we’re going to have to bring our ‘A’ game. We’re going to have to bring a lot of energy and effort and just go out there and execute.”
Here’s a look at each positional group and which team has the edge.
QUARTERBACKS
San Francisco starter Jimmy Garoppolo is on injured reserve (ankle), so No. 2 Nick Mullens gets the call.
Mullens, an undrafted free agent out of Southern Mississippi in 2017, started eight games in 2018 and had a 90.3 passer rating. This season, he’s started two games, played in four and has a quarterback rating of 97.8.
Mullens is a smooth, natural passer with an efficient release. His accuracy is good and he consistently throws on time.
Mullens is small, though (6-1, 210) and at times, tries forcing throws into tight windows that he can’t make. He’s also limited athletically.
“Yeah. I think Nick’s a very good player,” 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said of Mullens. “I mean the first time he ever got in was a Thursday night game (in 2018) and I think statistically he had the best first game of all time.
“We’ve just got to put a good game plan in, we’ve got to play well around Nick. And he doesn’t have to force anything, he’s just got to let the game come to him because he’s a very natural quarterback and he knows how to get the ball to the right places.”
Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers has had a passer rating of more than 100.0 in six of seven games this year.
Rodgers has struggled against San Francisco, though, his favorite team as a child and the one that passed on him when it held the No. 1 pick in the 2005 draft. Rodgers has a career record of just 4-6 against the 49ers and is 0-3 against them in the playoffs.
ADVANTAGE: Packers
RUNNING BACKS
Both teams have been hit hard here by injury and COVID-19.
Green Bay’s Aaron Jones (calf) is expected to miss his third straight game. Rookie A.J. Dillon tested positive for the coronavirus and Jamaal Williams was deemed a “high-risk close contact” to Dillon and placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list.
That means second-year man Dexter Williams — who has 11 career rushing yards on five carries (2.2) — will get the call. Williams has appeared in just five career games due largely to his unreliability, but will need to step up tonight.
“The one thing I’ll tell you about Dexter Williams is he has worked his tail off and he does that on a daily basis,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said of Williams. “He prepares as hard as anybody we have. So we have a lot of confidence in his ability to go out there and perform at a high level.”
San Francisco is down to third string running back JaMycal Hasty, an undrafted rookie out of Baylor. Hasty (5-8, 205) is an electric, change of pace back who has both patience and suddenness. He struggles in pass protection, though, and doesn’t have much authority as a finisher.
“This is just a quiet, but confident rookie who really doesn’t say much unless spoken to, but a guy that never gets any questions wrong in the meeting room,” 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk said of Hasty. “And then as soon as we stepped on the field, you could just see the talent.
“I promise you — every Thursday we do one-on-ones with our linebackers, and nobody is jumping to the front of the line to try to cover this guy. He probably has the quickest feet of the whole running back group, and it’s been awesome to see him get a few opportunities these past couple of weeks.”
ADVANTAGE: 49ers
RECEIVERS
Minnesota played Cover-2 and bracketed Green Bay’s Davante Adams last Sunday. Although Adams had three touchdown catches, he averaged just 7.6 yards on his seven receptions.
The rest of Green Bay’s wide receivers failed to take advantage of the extra attention being paid to Adams. That group combined for just four catches for 63 yards.
“I think it’s important that we find ways to move him around and put him in different spots, so we’re not just putting him inside, backside,” Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers said of Adams. “He’s been so productive even when he’s doubled most of the game, to have three touchdowns last week is phenomenal.
“Like I told him after one of his catches, I won’t say exactly what I said, I might have had a colorful metaphor for it, but I was just telling him how much I appreciate him, how good I think he is (laughs). But of course he has to be a focus for every defense that we play, try to find ways to slow him down and not get as many looks.”
It’s a mystery who the 49ers will throw the ball to.
Deebo Samuel (hamstring) was already ruled out, teammate Kendrick Bourne tested positive for COVID-19, and contact tracing landed rookie standout Brandon Aiyuk on the reserve/COVID-list.
Trent Taylor, a fifth-round draft pick in 2017 who has nine catches this year, becomes No. 1. Richie James, an undersized return specialist, could be an option, but he’s listed as questionable with an ankle injury.
There are three healthy wideouts on the practice squad — Kevin White, Chris Finke and River Cracraft. Expect two of those players to be promoted for the game.
George Kittle, arguably the best tight end in football, is on injured reserve after breaking a bone in his foot last week. Ross Dwelley, a third-year player with 23 career catches, becomes No. 1.
ADVANTAGE: Packers
OFFENSIVE LINE
Green Bay left tackle David Bakhtiari (chest) is expected to miss a third straight game. The Packers were solid up front in their first game without Bakhtiari, but struggled last week in a loss to Minnesota.
Left guard Elgton Jenkins had a rough day with a pair of holding penalties. Right tackle Rick Wagner had a long day against the Vikings’ mediocre front.
One positive has been the continued stellar play of center Corey Linsley, who has allowed just one pressure all year and is the NFL’s top rated center by Pro Football Focus.
San Francisco left tackle Trent Williams was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. He’ll be replaced by second-year man Justin Skule, who held up OK at that spot during his eight starts as a rookie.
Right tackle Mike McGlinchey, a first-round draft pick in 2018, is as steady as it gets. Left guard Laken Tomlinson, a first-round draft pick by Detroit in 2015, has improved his play since coming to the 49ers and has shined in 2020. Right guard Daniel Brunskill has been a weak link with three sacks allowed and two penalties.
The 49ers are also down to their third-string center in Hroniss Grasu, a former third round draft pick of the Chicago Bears.
“We’ve got all the guys who are capable, there’s no doubt, and they’ve shown that and that’s why they’re here,” 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said of his offensive line. “But the continuity is real. The more you play together, the better you do. We’re trying to string a few weeks together where we can get the same group of people.”
ADVANTAGE: Packers
DEFENSIVE LINE
Green Bay’s unit was embarrassed in a 28-22 loss to Minnesota last week.
Vikings running back Dalvin Cook ran for 163 yards on 30 carries (5.4) and scored four total touchdowns. Cook became the first player ever to eclipse 200 total yards from scrimmage and score four touchdowns against Green Bay at Lambeau Field. And Cook joined Chuck Foreman (1975) and Ahmad Rashad (1979) as the only players in franchise history to score four touchdowns in a game.
“Guys just got to do their job,” Packers nose tackle Kenny Clark said. “That’s just what it comes down to. We’ve all got to just buy into it, do our job, beat blocks and fill in and be where we’re supposed to be. It’s as simple as that. That’s what we’ve got to do.”
San Francisco expected to have one of the deepest and most talented defensive lines in football. Instead, defensive end Joey Bosa and defensive tackle Solomon Thomas both suffered ACL injuries and are out for the rest of the year. Ends Dee Ford (back) and Ezekiel Ansah (biceps) are also on the injured reserve list.
End Arik Armstead, who had 10 sacks a year ago, is the headliner. After a breakout 2019, though, Armstead has just 1.5 sacks this year. Ex-Lion Kerry Hyder Jr. is a versatile, try-hard defensive end.
Rookie first round three-technique Javon Kinlaw is a mountain of a man (6-5, 319) who possesses rare power and a wicked first step that can demolish blocking schemes. Nose tackle D.J. Jones has a blend of burst and power.
“They’re very sound,” Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett said of the 49ers’ front. “They know what they’re trying to attack and how they’re going to attack it. They’re penetrators. They’re going to go full speed ahead.
“I think any time you’re playing a defense like that, regardless of who the players are, it’s going to make you a little nervous. I think that they do a great job, regardless of who’s on that other side. We just have to treat everybody like they’re the best player in the league and do whatever we can do move the ball.”
ADVANTAGE: 49ers
LINEBACKERS
San Francisco middle linebacker Fred Warner, a third-year player from BYU, has been a starter since arriving and is emerging as one of the NFL’s elite players at his position. Warner had led the 49ers in tackles each of first three seasons and is terrific in coverage.
“I think Fred Warner’s been our leader out there, starting with by the way he plays,” 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said. “It usually starts with that. Guys aren’t going to listen to a lot of people unless they’re performing. I think Fred’s performed at a very high level, not to mention he’s the Mike linebacker and the quarterback of our defense, makes all the calls and carries himself outside of playing as good as anyone possibly could.”
Strongside linebacker Dre Greenlaw (5-11, 237) is an undersized, run and chase player. Journeyman Joe Walker, on his third team since 2017, could start on the weakide due to injury.
Green Bay’s inside linebackers — Kamal Martin and Krys Barnes — struggled during last week’s loss to Minnesota. Martin is on the reserve/COVID-19 list after it was determined he was a “high-risk close contact” with A.J. Dillon, who tested positive Monday. With Christian Kirksey still out with a shoulder injury, Ty Summers might have to play.
After Green Bay’s brutal game against Minnesota, ESPN analyst Rex Ryan lit up the Packers’ defense.
“I don’t know who’s coaching the inside ‘backers (Kirk Olivadotti), but my God!” Ryan exclaimed. “Mike Pettine (the defensive coordinator), you better go coach ‘em yourself. And that team has to toughen up or they’re done. One and done.”
ADVANTAGE: Even
SECONDARY
San Francisco ranks fourth in the league in passing yards allowed (209.0) and eighth in opposing quarterback rating (85.6). The Packers are 12th in yards allowed (227.6), but a dreadful 29th in opponent passer rating (109.8).
The 49ers are without perennial Pro Bowl cornerback Richard Sherman (calf). Former Charger Jason Verrett has recovered from leg injuries that plagued him in recent years and is playing like a No. 1 cornerback. Emmanuel Moseley starts on the other side and has been up and down all season.
Free safety Jimmie Ward, a first-round draft pick in 2014, has never played to that level. Strong safety Jaquiski Tartt played near a Pro Bowl level last season, but hasn’t been as good in 2020.
Green Bay’s Jaire Alexander is the top-rated cornerback in football according to Pro Football Focus.
“We do have a ton of faith certainly in Jaire,” Packers defensive coordinator Mike Pettine said of Alexander. “I challenge somebody to find a corner who’s having a better season than he is.”
ADVANTAGE: 49ers
SPECIAL TEAMS
Green Bay kicker Mason Crosby was a game-time decision last week due to calf and back injuries, but was able to play in his 215th consecutive game. Crosby should be close to 100% this week.
“As far as Mason and field goals, that’s really game by game,” Packers special teams coach Shawn Mennenga said. “His health was fine. It was a deal where based on wind conditions and the side wind and are they kicking more into it and things like that, that’s always going to set your limit during the game as far as where your max line’s going to be. It even changed during the game as the wind changed. It’s just a feel for thing.”
San Francisco veteran kicker Robbie Gould has made 90.9% of his field goals this year and 86.9% during his stellar 16-year career. Australian punter Mitch Wishnowsky ranks 13th in average (46.8) and sixth in punts downed inside the 20-yard line (12).
Trent Taylor is averaging 11.6 yards per punt return, but could relinquish that role if he’s the 49ers’ top receiving option. Ex-Viking Jerick McKinnon has averaged 21.6 yards on his five kickoff returns.
ADVANTAGE: 49ers
COACHING
Packers head coach Matt LaFleur and 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan became close when they worked together in Houston, Washington and Atlanta.
Shanahan, the son of two-time Super Bowl winning coach Mike Shanahan, was the offensive coordinator in Houston in 2008-09. LaFleur was an offensive assistant with the Texans those same years.
Shanahan became the offensive coordinator for his father in Washington from 2010-’13, then held that same position on Dan Quinn’s staff in Atlanta from 2015-’16. Each time, LaFleur was on the staff as the quarterbacks coach.
“I think he’s done a hell of a job,” Shanahan said of LaFleur. “I know how he is so I know he’s going to do a hell of a job, regardless. I know how his team feels about him; you can tell how they play, you can see it on tape how hard they go and that they’ll fight for him. I know the guy so it doesn’t surprise me at all.”
LaFleur’s brother, Mike, is the 49ers’ passing game coordinator today. And San Francisco defensive coordinator Robert Saleh and Matt LaFleur are extremely tight.
When the teams met twice last year, Shanahan’s staff got the better of Matt LaFleur’s group — winning the two games by a combined score of 74-28.
“Yeah, you know, I mean you always want to come out on top of everybody but certainly you know they handled us pretty easily both times we played them last year,” Matt LaFleur said. “Every year is a new year and they’ve had their fair share of adversity, as well.
“They’ve lost a lot of key players: Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, the list goes on and on, Richard Sherman. So they’ve had their fair share. We know it’s going to be … you can throw all that stuff out the window come Thursday. It’s going to be about the guys that we have out on the field and just our ability to go out there and execute, make the necessary adjustments when they need to be made and go play ball.”
ADVANTAGE: 49ers
Prediction: Packers 27, 49ers 17
Season record: 6-1
