A No. 1 seed.
All playoff games at Lambeau Field.
An ideal path to their first Super Bowl in 10 years.
That’s all on the line for the Green Bay Packers over the next three games.
Green Bay (10-3) currently holds the No. 1 seed in the NFC. If the Packers win out — starting with tonight’s game against Carolina (4-9) at 7:15 p.m. CST — they will have homefield advantage until the Super Bowl LV.
Don’t think for one second that isn’t an enormous topic of conversation inside Green Bay’s building right now.
“Sometimes you just have to make a bunch of young guys fully aware of the situation,” Packers wideout Davante Adams said. “Say we win these three games, coming into it and letting them know, obviously everyone on the football team knows how the playoff goes, but to be able to look at a rookie or a second-year, third-year guy in his face and say, ‘Look, we gotta win two freakin football games at home and then we’re going to the Super Bowl.’
“I think that makes it a little bit more clear than just knowing that we’re (the) 1 seed and we have a bye and this and that. Winning two football games at home and then playing in the Super Bowl, that’s crystal clear.”
Green Bay is an 8.0-point favorite. The game time temperature is expected to be around 25 degrees with light winds. No snow is in the forecast.
Here’s a look at each positional group and which team has the edge.
QUARTERBACKS
Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is in a two-man battle with Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes for NFL MVP honors.
Rodgers leads the league in touchdown passes (39), passer rating (119.7) and QBR (84.8). Rodgers is third in the league in passing yards (3,685), fourth in completion percentage (69.6%) and has thrown just four interceptions.
“There’s not many guys that have won three, so that would definitely mean a lot,” Rodgers said of winning a third MVP. “I feel like I’ve been in the conversation, you know, a number of years outside of the two that I’ve won.
“We’re talking about in ‘12 when A.P. (Adrian Peterson) went nuts against us in the last game of the year. I had a pretty good year that year. Obviously in ‘16 we made a run and led the league in passing touchdowns. Didn’t really get a sniff for some reason that year. But, you know, I definitely felt like I was in the conversation. You know, it’s nice to be back in the conversation.”
Carolina’s Teddy Bridgewater is getting his first chance to be a starter since 2016, when he tore his ACL and suffered other structural damage, including a dislocation of the knee joint while playing with Minnesota. Bridgewater needed two full years to recover, then spent the 2018-19 seasons as a backup in Minnesota.
This year, Bridgewater has a sizzling completion percentage of 72.1%, has thrown 13 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. His passer rating is 98.7 and he’s averaging 255.2 passing yards per game.
“You can tell he’s a real resilient guys that is as tough as they come,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said of Bridgewater. “Just for him to be able to battle back through that injury that occurred in Minnesota and he’s had success. He’s a guy that is extremely talented. He knows how to get the ball out of his hands, and I think it shows this year, he’s been very, very productive. So we think he’s a really good player.”
ADVANTAGE: Packers
RUNNING BACKS
Green Bay ranks 10th in the NFL in rushing yards per game (123.8) and 12th in rushing yards per attempt (4.5).
The Packers are able to play running backs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams together at times, and the duo can be dangerous in both the run and pass game.
“I think it’s because you’ve got some of your playmakers you depend on, you have those guys in the game at the same time and you can do different things,” Sirmans said. “You can find, whether it’s a matchup or whether it’s a situation where they’re keying on one guy and now you can work the other.
“It kind of gives us the flexibility to do a number of things, especially the fact that those guys are pretty good receivers out of the backfield. It’s interesting sometimes to see how a defense plans on defending those sets and those personnel groupings when we get in them.”
Carolina’s Christian McCaffrey became just the third player in NFL history to eclipse 1,000 rushing and receiving yards in the same season last year. The Panthers then made him the NFL’s highest-paid running back in April.
McCaffrey has played in just three games this year, though, due to a high ankle sprain, shoulder and thigh injuries.
Veteran Mike Davis has stepped in and rushed for 555 yards and caught 57 passes for 371 yards (6.5).
“With Davis, he’s a really good back,” Packers nose tackle Kenny Clark said. “He’s done a lot of good things stepping in for McCaffrey. Powerful guy that runs behind his pads. He’s made a lot of plays in the passing game. They get him on the edges and he can cut things back, and he has great vision. He’s been doing a great job for them in the run game, and the offensive line’s made holes for him and he’s been doing his thing.”
ADVANTAGE: Packers
RECEIVERS
The Panthers signed former Jets wideout Robby Anderson — who played under Ruhle in college — in free agency. The speedy Anderson leads the Panthers in receptions (83) and yards (996), but has just two touchdowns.
Dangerous D.J. Moore, who had 1,175 receiving yards last year, is averaging 18.5 yards per catch. He’s also on pace for 1,232 receiving yards this season.
No. 3 Curtis Samuel has 61 catches, but is averaging just 9.6 yards per reception. Tight end Ian Thomas, who replaced Greg Olsen this season, has been a non-factor in the passing game with just 16 receptions.
“They have a lot of speed over there,” Packers safety Adrian Amos said of the Panthers wide receivers. “They can stretch the field, and they’re pretty good after the catch, so that’s going to be a lot on us in the back end keeping the top on the defense as well as tackling when they get the ball in space.”
Green Bay’s Davante Adams is tied for the NFL lead with 14 touchdowns, despite missing two games. He’s also had a receiving touchdown in eight straight games, which broke the franchise mark of seven held by Don Hutson.
Adams is averaging an NFL-best 104.0 yards receiving per game this year. And he needs two more receiving touchdowns this season to be the 11th wide receiver since the 1970 merger with 60-plus touchdown catches within his first 100 career games.
Still, Adams insists records aren’t what drives him.
“When we look back, when we have (a Larry Fitzgerald)-like career as far as duration, hopefully I can look back and say we got the boxes checked with a couple Super Bowls to add to that,” Adams said. “That’s where my mind is. At the end of the day, I want to be great and I want this team to be great.
“The awards or little minor achievements along the way, the weekly things, hearing stuff like that makes me feel good obviously but that ain’t what drives me. What drives me is getting the Super Bowl and ultimately trying to be the best receiver to play this game. That’s how I attack it. That’s how I attack my day-to-day.”
ADVANTAGE: Packers
OFFENSIVE LINE
With center Corey Linsley on the injured reserve list with a knee injury, Green Bay continues to shuffle parts up front. That means Elgton Jenkins has moved from left guard to center, Lucas Patrick has gone from right guard to left guard, Billy Turner slid from right tackle to right guard, and Rick Wagner was inserted at right tackle.
“We’ve had a lot of people play different positions,” Wagner said. “Every week, it seems like somebody’s playing the opposite side or a new position. It just shows how good of a coach Steno is, getting us prepared every week against different defenses, putting a game plan together for us that we have confidence in every week. He does a great job getting us on the same page. We’ve got to continue that this week.”
The Panthers traded for veteran left tackle Russell Okung last offseason, and he’s brought consistency to the position. Okung didn’t practice Thursday, though, due to a calf injury and is questionable.
Taylor Moton has been steady at right tackle all season and could switch sides if Okung can’t play.
After a rough 2019 season, center Matt Paradis has been steady this year and allowed just two sacks. Right guard John Miller, who signed a one-year deal in free agency, has five penalties and allowed three sacks. Left guard Chris Reed has been so-so.
ADVANTAGE: Packers
DEFENSIVE LINE
Carolina switched to a 4-3 base under first-year defensive coordinator Phil Snow.
The Panthers’ best player up front is left defensive end Brian Burns, who went two picks after Rashan Gary in the 2019 draft. Burns has six sacks this year, 13.5 for his career and has 4.0 forced fumbles in his career.
“Yeah, he’s a really productive player, really versatile,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said of Burns. “The thing that really jumps out to you is just his ability to get around the corner and bend. I know he had a couple of great sacks – one versus the Vikings, he had another that showed up versus the Chargers that were big time plays. And then you see the guy drop in coverage, and it’s rare to see a guy with that type of athleticism able to do all of that. I know he’s a young player, but he is a really good football player. I think he’s got a really bright future.”
Rookie tackle Derrick Brown, the seventh overall pick in April’s draft, has picked up his play after a slow start and has six tackles for loss. Pro Bowl tackle Kawaan Short was lost for the season with a shoulder injury, and the drop to Woodrow Hamilton has been immense.
Right defensive end Efe Obada (3.5 sacks) is questionable with a knee injury. Disappointing rookie end Yetur Gross-Matos (1.5 sacks) and third year man Marquis Haynes (3.0 sacks) would see increased roles if Obada can’t go.
Amazingly, Green Bay’s much-maligned rushing defense ranks 11th in yards allowed per game (109.7). The Packers are just 26th in yards allowed per carry (4.6), though.
The biggest reason for Green Bay’s solid ranking in rushing yards allowed is that the Packers have built sizeable leads in many games. That’s forced opponents to abandon the run, and foes currently have the third-fewest rushing attempts in the league against Green Bay.
“I think we’re improving each and every week,” Packers nose tackle Kenny Clark said. “Just got to keep doing what we’re doing, keep practicing how we’re practicing and keep trying to put together a complete game. That’s the main thing. Just not have those mental lulls in the middle of games, just being able to put a complete game [together] from the first quarter to the last.”
ADVANTAGE: Even
LINEBACKERS
When the Packers went with just one linebacker last week, it was rookie free agent Krys Barnes logging most of the snaps, not veteran Christian Kirksey.
“I think that’s something that we’re still always kind of working through and trying to figure out to get your best 11 and have them playing at a high level,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “But KB brings a physical presence, he certainly has great instincts, is able to communicate really well to make sure everyone else is doing their jobs, and that’s what you love about him.
“He’s just super-intelligent, he doesn’t play like a rookie. He plays like a vet. His ability to communicate, get everybody on the same page is, it makes everybody else better.”
Carolina’s defense took a huge hit last offseason when linebacker Luke Kuechly — a seven-time Pro Bowler with nearly 1,100 career tackles — retired in January.
Rookie hybrid strongside linebacker/safety Jeremy Chinn has had a terrific first season. Chinn leads Panthers with 95 tackles, has three tackles for loss, five passes defensed, two forced fumbles and an interception.
The Packers need to know where he is at all times.
“He acts and does things a lot older than his age,” Panthers defensive coordinator Phil Snow said of Chinn. “You would think he’s a veteran. I think that’s a tribute to how he’s been raised and brought up — at home and in football. I think the college coaches did a great job with him.”
Shaq Thompson is extremely active on the weakside (89 tackles, six TFLs). Jermaine Carter has been solid in the middle.
ADVANTAGE: Packers
SECONDARY
Carolina ranks 23rd in passing yards allowed per game (250.8) and 26th in opposing quarterback rating (101.0).
The Panthers’ defensive passing game coordinator/secondary coach is Jason Simmons, who came from Green Bay this offseason. Whether or not that will help Carolina’s mediocre secondary against Aaron Rodgers & Co. remains to be seen.
“Working against him in practice was one of the best learning experiences for me,” Simmons said this week. “The thing about Aaron is, he’s humble enough to give you information and things he’s seen. If there were things we were doing as a secondary that are tells, he’d talk to guys about it, and share that with players, coaches, anyone.”
Up and down third-year man Donte Jackson starts at left corner. Rasul Douglas, who was waived by Philadelphia in training camp, and rookie fourth round pick Tony Pride Jr. are No. 2 and 3.
Free safety Tre Boston, who was expected to become the leader of this group after safety Eric Reid was released, has had a rough year. Boston is questionable with a hamstring.
Ex-Brown Juston Burris starts at strong safety and can be exposed in the pass game.
The Packers rank 22nd in opposing quarterback rating (95.8), but 11th in passing yards allowed per game (226.0).
“What’s unique about our group is, especially during these times that we have now, we just have a lot of guys that will come together and are growing and getting better each and every week,” strong safety Adrian Amos said. “With everything that’s going on with uncertainty, people have to move positions, just bouncing back and forth, people being prepared to go at the last minute, you have games where you mess around and have two players that have never played before in there and have to be ready to go. I just think we’re a resilient group, a close group and I just feel like our best ball is still ahead of us.”
ADVANTAGE: Packers
SPECIAL TEAMS
Another week, another special teams gaffe for the Green Bay Packers.
Last week, Detroit’s Jamal Agnew returned a kickoff 71 yards to set up a late field goal. After a respectable start to the season, Green Bay had a punt blocked in Houston, allowed punt return touchdowns against both Jacksonville and Philadelphia, fumbled a kickoff return vs. Indianapolis, and failed to recover an onside kick against San Francisco.
“We’ve done a lot of really good things,” said Packers kicker Mason Crosby, one of Green Bay’s few bright spots on special teams. “It’s just eliminating that one or two plays in a game.
“We don’t get a series. We don’t get multiple reps to go out there and get kind of in a rhythm. Every opportunity we have, it’s a one play series and we have to execute at a high level.”
Carolina’s Pharoh Cooper, a Pro Bowl returner in 2017, has been solid on kick returns (23.9), but just so-so on punts (5.6). Running back Trenton Cannon, who had a 98-yard kickoff return against Tampa Bay on Nov. 15, also returns kicks.
Kicker Joey Slye is a disappointing 26-of-33 (78.8) on field goals, largely because he’s just 1-of-6 from 50 yards and beyond. Undrafted rookie Joseph Charlton has been solid (46.2 gross, 39.6 net).
“We definitely got a challenge in front of us like you do every week,” Packers special teams coordinator Shawn Mennenga said. “It’s the NFL. They do some unique things, fake the ball, so we have to be sound in everything we’re going. We have to go out there play with great technique and play hard, too.”
ADVANTAGE: Panthers
COACHING
Carolina’s Matt Ruhle rebuilt college programs at both Temple and Baylor. The Panthers then gave him a seven-year, $26 million deal to replace long-time coach Ron Rivera after last season.
This is Ruhle’s first year as an NFL head coach and just his second in the NFL, after he spent the 2012 campaign as the New York Giants’ assistant offensive line coach.
Ruhle brought defensive coordinator Phil Snow with him from the college ranks and the two have blown up the Panthers’ defensive roster. Ruhle also hired former LSU passing game coordinator Joe Brady to be his offensive coordinator.
“Definitely have a lot of respect for what he’s been able to accomplish as a head coach at Temple, at Baylor,” Packers head coach Matt LaFleur said of Ruhle. “He’s just had a lot of success.”
Green Bay is 23-6 in Matt LaFleur’s first two seasons, including a surprising 10-3 this year. Still, LaFleur has been a forgotten man in NFL Coach of the Year discussions.
“I think he’s amazing,” Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett said of LaFleur. “He should get that award. I mean, for what has gone on these past two years, I mean, it’s unbelievable. And the confidence he’s instilled in so many people is great, how he lets us be us and be able to coach and work with the guys is awesome.”
ADVANTAGE: Packers
Prediction: Packers 34, Panthers 20
Season record: 12-1
Record vs. the point spread: 10-3
