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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
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Graeme Wearden

Lagarde calls for 'significant' Greek debt relief; Fed leaves rates unchanged - as it happened

A television screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Traders on the New York Stock Exchange were poised for the Fed decision. Photograph: Richard Drew/AP

And that, I think, is all for another day. G’night all! GW

Capital Economics: US interest rate rise is coming.....

A September interest rate hike is still on the cards, says Steve Murphy of Capital Economics.

Here’s his take on the Federal Reserve’s statement:

In its latest FOMC policy statement, the Fed did not provide any clear hints that a September rate hike is coming. Nevertheless, this doesn’t mean that it won’t happen, especially since the statement sounded a bit more upbeat on the economy.

The policy statement was largely unchanged, with only some minor tweaks to acknowledge the improvement in the economic data. The housing sector is described as showing “additional” rather than “some” improvement, jobs gains are now thought to be “solid” and the unemployment rate is “declining” rather than “remained steady” as before.

These tweaks fall well short of a clear hint that a rate hike is coming at the next meeting in September. Note the Fed flagged up a hike at the meeting before the first rise in the tightening cycle in 2004. Nonetheless, Yellen has recently stressed that each meeting is “live” and “data dependent” so this was always unlikely. The more positive tone of the statement is a sign that the first rate hike is coming closer.

Given that in June 15 of 17 officials expected rates to rise this year and 10 of 17 anticipated two 25 basis-point increases, there’s a good change that rates will rise at two of the three meetings left this year. September is very much in play, especially if international risks continue to recede and core inflation continues to strengthen.

Our view is that the Fed will raise rates at the September meeting and to 0.50-0.75% at year-end. Perhaps more importantly, stronger wage growth and core inflation will prompt rates to rise by more than currently anticipated by the markets, taking them to 2.25-2.50% by end-2016.

Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets, says the Fed will want to ensure that the two employment reports between the July and September meetings aren’t “duds” before signalling that they’re ready to raise borrowing costs.

Janet Yellen and colleagues will also be watching for any global risks flaring up, which could knock a rate rise off course. That’s via Marketwatch:

Analysts at BNP Paribas, the French bank, say the Fed has left its options open with today’s little-changed statement on monetary policy:

Here’s a flavour of BNP’s new note to clients:

  • Before lift-off the Fed also wants to be reasonably confident in its forecast for inflation to return to target over the medium-term; crude oil prices falling 17% and the dollar appreciating further probably did not increase their confidence, but there was no explicit sign in the statement that the Fed is losing confidence on its inflation outlook – we will get more intel on this when the June meeting minutes are released.
  • We think the Fed will continue to assess rate hikes on a meeting-by-meeting basis. In Yellen’s testimony before Congress two weeks ago, we heard that the Fed wants to see a bit more labor market improvement before lift-off – this is exactly what the statement said.
  • With two payrolls reports before the September FOMC, the Fed does not know when it will have that improvement in the bag and wants to keep its options open. The majority of market forecasters think we could be there before September. We think December. The Fed is confident we’ll get there before year-end.

A television screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange shows the decision of the Federal Reserve, Wednesday, July 29, 2015. The Federal Reserve appears on track to raise interest rates later this year but is signaling that it wants to see further economic gains and higher inflation before doing so. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)
A television screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange shows the decision of the Federal Reserve. Photograph: Richard Drew/AP

Here’s all you really need to know about the Federal Reserve’s announcement:

Updated

The US stock market had a brief fluctuation at Fed o’clock, but it didn’t last long.

The immediate reaction is that today’s Fed statement makes a September rate hike a little less likely.

But there’s not much in it, given there’s no radical change between the new statement and the last one.

Basically, Janet Yellen and colleagues aren’t quite ready to pull the lever to raise borrowing costs - and want to see more data from the US jobs market over the summer.

The markets aren’t quite sure what to make of the Fed statement.

The dollar plunged when the first newsflashes came up, but has now bounced back.

Changes to the Fed statement

There are two significant changes in today’s statement from the Federal Reserve.

1) It has added a reference to the labor market ‘continuing to improve’, and slightly hardened its language about the underutilisation of resources diminishing (ie, fewer people working less than they want)

2) It has removed a reference to energy prices stabilising:

CNBC has helpfully highlighted the statement:

Today’s decision was unanimous, the Fed adds.

Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged

Here we go!

The Federal Reserve has resisted raising interest rates from their current record low, of 0% to 0.25%.

The US central bank says that it will raise interest rates when it has seen “some further improvement” in the labour market (or the labor market, I guess). Is that a hint of a rise in September?

The Fed also repeats that the risks to the economy and the jobs market are “nearly balanced”, showing that it hasn’t - yet - been pushed into a rate hike.

OK, nearly time for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision....

Afternoon summary: Greek debt relief back in the spotlight

Time for a recap:

The issue of Greece’s unsustainable debt burden has moved back up the agenda, as top officials from the country’s creditors prepare to begin talks on a third bailout.

IMF chief Christine Lagarde has reiterated the Fund’s position, that “significant” debt relief is needed, as part of a new aid deal.

Lagarde also wants to see “sensible fiscal targets” (which must take account of the recent economic turmoil), “structural measures” to reform the Greek economy, and enough funding to cover Athens’ medium-term financing needs.

Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras has also put debt relief front-and-centre, telling a radio interview that Greece should get help in November.

Tsipras also warned that Greece’s eurozone membership is still up in the air until the third bailout is agreed.

And he threw down the gauntlet to rebels in his party, saying they must either support the government or resign. Ratcheting up the pressure, Tsipras also suggested that he could be forced to call early elections if he doesn’t have Syriza’s support.

Tsipras warned:

“I’m the last person who would want elections....If I don’t have a parliamentary majority, though, we will be forced to head to a snap vote.”

Speculation is growing that former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis could ultimately face charges over his plan to develop a parallel payment system. The country’s top prosecutor has asked parliament to examine complaints over the issue.

Greece is preparing for tough negotiations with its creditors over a third bailout - with IMF negotiator Delia Velculescu arriving tomorrow.

While European Commissioner Pierre Moscovici insists that Grexit is off the table, the prime minister of Bavaria is less sure - he fears ‘utter chaos’ if Greece fails to reform and leaves the eurozone.

And the financial markets remain calm, as investors await the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates at 7pm BST (or 2pm East Coast time)

Asked about the prospect of a US rate rise, Christine Lagarde predicts “a variation of monetary policy in the not-too-distant future”.

And she ends her first online press conference by telling reporters that she hopes they’re comfy, with their feet on the desk and a cup of coffee (or watching the Ashes, perhaps....)

Four legs good.....

Lagarde: Greece needs 'significant' debt relief

Christine Lagarde has warned that Greece needs “significant” debt relief - laying down the conditions for the IMF to take part in the third bailout.

She told today’s virtual press conference that any rescue plan for Greece will be unworkable without some form of debt relief.

“For any programme to fly, a significant debt restructuring should take place.”

Lagarde added that a rescue plan would have to involve “four legs”:

  • sensible fiscal targets, that are delivered
  • structural measures to open up the Greek economy
  • sufficient financing to make the programme workable
  • debt restructuring

Lagarde added that the IMF would be looking at what the Greek government does, not what it says, promising to disregard what she called political “noise”, and focus on “deeds, not creeds”.

Updated

Lagarde: The global recovery is tepid and fragile

IMF chief Christine Lagarde is holding her first ever virtual press conference with reporters.

Top spokesman Gerry Rice is putting the questions (don’t go easy on the boss, Gerry!)

The event started with Lagarde joking that she was trying to imagine us all behind the little computer screen *waves*.

And then to business, with a warning that the global recovery is “a little bit too tepid” and fragile for her liking.

On the eurozone, Lagarde says it appears to be ‘turning the corner’.

And on China, she’s believes that the current stock market volatility isn’t a reason to panic.

Updated

The ECB has maintained its current support for the Greek banking sector today, at almost €91bn.

Why no increase? Apparently the Bank of Greece didn’t ask for one - suggesting that the outflow of deposits has stabilised (and with capital controls in force, that’s understandable).

Greek MP: Varoufakis could face charges over Plan B

Greece’s former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis looks on during the Syriza party’s parliamentary group meeting at the Greek Parliament in Athens on July 15, 2015. Greece gears up for a crucial parliamentary vote on draconian reforms demanded by eurozone creditors in exchange for a huge new bailout, in what could be Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s toughest political test yet. AFP PHOTO/ LOUISA GOULIAMAKILOUISA GOULIAMAKI/AFP/Getty Images

In a drama fast unraveling in Athens the scene has been set for possible criminal charges to be brought against former finance minister Yanis Varoufakis following revelations of his secret plan to establish an alternative currency in the event of Greece’s euro ejection.

Helena Smith reports:

Amid cries of high treason, the country’s most senior state prosecutor, Efterpi Koutzamani, ordered the Greek parliament to examine an array of complaints brought by private citizens against Varoufakis.

The Supreme Court prosecutor, who played a leading role in putting the far right Golden Dawn on trial, also asked a magistrate to investigate whether criminal charges should be brought against non-political figures, following Varoufakis’s admission of a plan to hack Greece’s tax service to set up the parallel payment system.

“I would not want to be in Varoufakis’ shoes,” the conservative MP and shadow finance minister Anna Asimakopoulou told the Guardian.

“I think that it is highly likely he will end up in a courtroom.”

As a sitting MP, the maverick economist enjoys immunity from prosecution. But the prosecutor’s move now opens the way to criminal charges being bought against him if parliament determines there are grounds to establish a special congressional committee to probe the allegations.

Judicial sources said the charges could range from dereliction of duty to overseeing the formation of a criminal gang – the central accusation brought against Golden Dawn whose leaders are currently on trial.

The five-member team tasked with organizing the alternative currency – described by the former finance minister as a form of parallel liquidity - could also face accusations of participating in a criminal organization. The working group was headed by the well-known US economist, James K Galbraith, who was seconded to help Varoufakis until the politician’s resignation earlier this month.

In five separate suits brought against him, the academic-turned-MP has also been accused him of high treason although legal experts said the charge would be very hard to prove. His perceived mishandling of highly fraught negotiations with the EU and International Monetary Fund – the bodies keeping debt-stricken Greece afloat – has been blamed for the tough measures imposed on Athens in exchange for a third bailout of emergency loans from international creditors.

By failing to agree on a cash-for-reform programme earlier, the crisis-plagued country was forced to sign up to a deal outlining €12bn of savings rather than €8bn as originally thought. The closure of banks and imposition of capital controls – implemented under Varoufakis’ stewardship – are said to have wrought at least €3bn worth of damage on the economy with prolonged recession now predicted for a country that has experienced record levels of unemployment and poverty since the eruption of the debt crisis five years ago.

In recent days even senior members of prime minister Alexis Tsipras’ radical left Syriza party have joined in the criticism, attributing the tough stance of lenders to the outspoken politician’s handling of the talks.

Syriza MP and vice president of the 300-seat House Alexis Mitropoulos told Mega TV that:

“With his loquaciousness, with his naivety, with his zeal to prove his ideas more than anything else, it seems that he hurt the Greek issue.”

Varoufakis, who has retreated to his island home, has openly admitted resorting to “unconventional methods” to come up with a contingency plan that would have paved the way to the re-embrace of the drachma if Greece was forced out of the euro zone.

But he also argued yesterday that it would have been “remiss” of him if his ministry had not also devised a Plan B.

On Tuesday the European Union waded in slamming Varoufakis for suggesting that he was forced to hack his ministry’s computer systems because the nation’s “troika” of creditors had exclusive control of the country’s tax agency. A commission spokeswoman described the claims as “false and unfounded.”

But the self-styled “erratic Marxist” also has friends in high places with many saying he has been turned into a scapegoat.

Writing in the New York Times this week, the Nobel prize winning US economics professor Paul Krugman argued that it would have been highly irresponsible of Varoufakis had he not had a plan.

“The issue now becomes whether Tsipras was right to decide not to invoke this plan in the face of what amounted to extortion from the creditors,” he wrote.

“I think he called it wrong, but God knows it was an awesome responsibility — and we may never know who was right.”

Varoufakis responded with his usual aplomb today tweeting:

Updated

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras gives an interview to the radio station “Sto Kokkino”<br>epa04864688 Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras speaks during an interview to the radio station ‘Sto Kokkino’, in Athens, Greece, 29 July 2015. Regarding the negotiation, Tsipras noted that a sober evaluation of the situation must be made and underlined that we should be proud of the battle we gave. EPA/ORESTIS PANAGIOTOU
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras during his radio interview today. Photograph: Orestis Panagiotou/EPA

Tsipras has also warned that Greece could face fresh snap elections, if he cannot maintain the support of his party:

Tsipras appears to be challenging the 30-or so rebellious government MPs to either shuffle back into line, or shuffle off:

That sets the tone for a meeting of Syriza’s central committee on Thursday. That committee could decide to call a new party congress – either in September or straight away.

Let’s get back to Alexis Tsipras’s radio interview, where the Greek PM has warned rebels in his Syriza party to support him or clear off:

Some analysts suspect that Syriza will soon split, with the rebellious Left Platform breaking away from the rest of the party. That would allow Tsipras to take a more centrist approach.

However, he’s also just ruled out turning Syriza into a social democratic party.

Bank of England fears impact of Fed rate hike

Breaking away from Greece, and the Bank of England’s deputy governor for financial stability has revealed his worries about the consequences of a US interest rate rise.

Speaking to the Guardian, Sir Jon Cunliffe warned that markets are still ‘quite fragile’. So we can’t assume that a Fed rate hike won’t cause problems.

As Cunliffe put it:

“If and when US interest rates go up ... there are concerns about how the market will adjust. This must be the most advertised, well signalled change in monetary policy in the history of man.

Nonetheless you don’t know. These are different sorts of markets to the ones we had before.”

Cunliffe also warned that new rules to regulate banks should not be watered down, despite pressure from the industry....

Tsipras: Grexit is still a risk

Alexis Tsipras has warned radio listeners that Greece could still be forced out of the eurozone.

The risk of Grexit won’t be removed until a third bailout deal, and debt relief, is secured, he says.

As reported earlier, Bavaria’s prime minister has warned that Grexit is still a risk.

Horst Seehofer said:

On top of that there would be utter chaos. If Greece were not prepared to reform, a path like that would have to be accepted but one shouldn’t strive for it oneself or organise it.”

What defeat?!

In defeat, unbeatable?

Updated

Tsipras has returned to defending the deal he signed up to at the all-night negotiations in Brussels:

But what about your referendum, Alexis?

Greek PM: debt relief in November

Another nugget from Alexis Tsipras’s interview with Sto Konnino 105,5 - he says Greece’s creditors will tackle its debt sustainability in November:

For that to happen, Greece would need to agree a third bailout, and then show its lenders that it is sticking to the plan.

Updated

Alexis Tsipras is denying that Greece could have breezed out of its bailouts if Syriza hadn’t won January’s election:

Chris Loukas of radio station Sto Kokkino 105,5 is tweeting the key points from their interview with the PM:

Updated

Kathimerini are also translating Alexis Tsipras’s radio interview (thanks guys!).

The Greek PM is (once again) defending the bailout deal he agreed to this month:

Tsipras: Last six months have seen 'great conflict'

Here are some early highlights from Alexis Tsipras’s radio interview, via Enikos.

The institutions were not independent or neutral.

We should be proud of the battle we have given.

The last 6 months has been a period of great conflict.

Updated

Greek PM Alexis Tsipras is giving a radio interview now. It’s live here (in Greek, obviously)

Britain’s City watchdog has fired a warning shot at the banking sector, warning that some firms haven’t done enough to prevent financial benchmarks being manipulated.

Following a series of scandals, the FCA is pushing banks to ensure that they are properly overseeing their staff. However:

....the application of the lessons learned from the LIBOR, Forex and Gold cases to other benchmarks had been uneven across the industry and often lacked the urgency required given the severity of recent failings.

Updated

IMF top negotiator won't arrive in Athens until Thursday

After getting off to a bumpy start yesterday, negotiations with mission chiefs representing Greece’s creditor institutions will begin today minus one, we have just been told.

From Athens our correspondent Helena Smith reports

The hotly-anticipated arrival of all four mission chiefs representing the EU, ESM, ECB and IMF will have to wait until tomorrow, the Guardian has just been told.

After much confusion, a finance ministry official has confirmed that the Rumanian economist Delia Velculescu, who will be heading the IMF team to Greece, will not be flying in until tomorrow.

The well-placed source told me

“There’s no particular reason for the delay.

But I can confirm she won’t be coming in today, she’ll be arriving tomorrow.”

The official rejected suggestions that the delay was directly linked to difficulties with the IMF, which of all the creditor bodies has taken the toughest stand with Greece.

“There’s absolutely no mystery to it,” said the official adding that it remained unclear how long the inspection tour would last.

Velculescu comes with a reputation. The Rumanian economist who will be reporting to former mission chief Poul Thomsen (now head of the IMF’s European department) was previously appointed mission chief for Cyprus where her demanding stance earned her the nickname Dracula.

US-trained, she will be tough with Athens applying prior actions in the coming weeks.

Already the talks are mired in dispute amid speculation that the Greek government will have to pass more restrictive measures through parliament to qualify for bailout funds.

Rumour has been rife that creditors will demand further prior actions not least pension cuts and tax hikes on profits made by farmers – neuralgic issues bound to trigger further anger in Syriza.

In a statement the Greek finance minister rejected any suggestion that the government might be forced to impose further prior actions.

“As far as reports of prior actions are concerned it should be noted that neither in the agreement of the European summit on the 12 of July nor in the two letters that the Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos sent to the ESM was there the slightest hint of a third package of prior actions.”

The latest talks, the ministry said, would focus on changes to the Greek pension system labour reform, fiscal policy and market regulation.

Updated

Here’s a few gems from the deluge of corporate news this morning:

And if you want more, check out FastFT’s full summary of this morning’s results:

UK stocks: the morning’s movers and shakers

Greek stock market investors need to stay patient.

The Athens exchange won’t open today, because the government hasn’t issued a ministerial decree to allow trading to resume.

It could open on Thursday, more than a month after capital controls were introduced.

Investors monitor screens at a brokerage house in Shanghai this morning.
Investors monitor screens at a brokerage house in Shanghai this morning. Photograph: Johannes Eisele/AFP/Getty Images

You need nerves of steel to play the Chinese stock market right now.

The Shanghai composite index ended the day up 3.5%, after a late surge of buying drove many shares up 10% - the maximum allowed in one day.

Earlier, the market had been heading for another fall, before a rush of optimism swept brokerages. Beijing’s latest steps to stabilise the markets by buying shares and injecting liquidity may be paying off.

Shanghai composite index, July 29 2015

That still leaves traders nursing big losses after Monday’s 8.5% plunge”

Updated

Barclays plans<br>File photo dated 22/04/14 of cash machines at a Barclays bank in Islington, north London, as the bank’s boss John McFarlane signalled plans to ramp up growth, squeeze costs and streamline the business after announcing a 25% rise in first half profits. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Issue date: Wednesday July 29, 2015. Interim results showing an increase in pre-tax earnings to £3.11 billion come just three weeks after chief executive Antony Jenkins was fired over lacklustre revenue growth. See PA story CITY Barclays. Photo credit should read: Yui Mok/PA Wire

For all the talk of clean-ups and fresh starts, Britain’s banks are still paying for the mistakes of the past.

This morning, Barclays has set aside £1.8bn to cover the cost of compensating customers caught up in a string of scandals. It took the shine off a 25% jump in profits.

Our City editor Jill Treanor reports:

The figure was revealed as John McFarlane, the chairman who is standing in as chief executive following the ousting of Antony Jenkins earlier this month, pledged to accelerate the disposal of risky businesses, cut costs at the scandal-hit bank and change the dividend policy.

Included in the provision is a further £600m for the payment protection insurance mis-selling scandal and £250m to compensate customers with packaged bank accounts that had other products, such as insurance, attached to them.

Shareholders seem happy, though - Barclays shares are up 2.6% in early trading.

There’s not much sign of Greek angst in the European stock markets this morning.

Shares are higher across the board, helped by the news that China’s stock market surged by over 3% in late trading:

European stock markets, early trading, July 29 2015

Investors are poised to hear the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates tonight, and to digest the accompanying statement.

FXTM Chief Market Analyst Jameel Ahmad explains:

What everyone wants to know from tonight’s FOMC announcement is clear guidance on the likely time frame to expect an US interest rate increase.

We have repeatedly been told that US interest rates will rise at some point later this year, but the timing on when this will occur still remains largely unclear.

Bavarian PM: Grexit would be 'utter chaos'

Richard Wagner Bayreuth Opera Festival, Germany - 25 Jul 2015<br>Mandatory Credit: Photo by Action Press/REX Shutterstock (4914883s) Horst Seehofer Richard Wagner Bayreuth Opera Festival, Germany - 25 Jul 2015
Horst Seehofer

The prime minister of Bavaria, one of Angela Merkel’s allies, has warned that there would be ‘utter chaos’ if Greece were to leave the eurozone.

However, it might also be inevitable, if Athens can’t implement the reforms that creditor demand, Horst Seehofer added.

Seehofer made the comments in an interview with German newspaper Die Welt, published in today’s edition.

Reuters has the key quotes:

“No one can predict the consequences of a Grexit other than that a lot of Greece’s debts would have to be written off and at the same time monetary help would be necessary.”

“On top of that there would be utter chaos. If Greece were not prepared to reform, a path like that would have to be accepted but one shouldn’t strive for it oneself or organise it.”

Moscovici optimistic on bailout talks

Negotiations over the third Greek bailout deal are going well, European commissioner Pierre Moscovici told French radio listeners this morning.

Interviewed on Europe 1 radio, Moscovici said talks were taking place in “good conditions”, declaring that:

“Grexit is behind us.”

The priority now, he added, is to create closer integration in the eurozone and drive through economic reforms to lower unemployment.

Updated

Introduction: Greek negotiators 'predict deep recession'

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Coming up.....

Technical talks between the Greek government and its creditors will continue today, as Athens tries to secure a third bailout by mid-August.

Top officials from the European Commission, European Central Bank and European Stability Mechanism should all in the capital by the end of the day, ready to take over negotiations by Friday. Delia Velculescu, the IMF’s lead negotiator, arrives tomorrow.

Technical teams have been assessing the state of the Greek economy so they can draw up plausible new fiscal targets.

Greek media report that they now expect a deep recession in 2015, given the severe damage caused by a month of capital controls:

Also coming up....

Tonight, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest decision on interest rates. They’re very likely to hold them at 0.25% - but for how much longer? Speculation of a September rate hike have already helped to drive emerging market currencies down to a 15-year low.

And there’s also a flurry of corporate news, as companies clear the decks before the August break - including Barclays, Sky, Antofagasta and Foxtons.

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