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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

Former Greek finance minister avoids jail over Swiss bank case – as it happened

Former finance minister George Papaconstantinou.
Former finance minister George Papaconstantinou. Photograph: Louisa Gouliamaki/AFP/Getty Images

Closing summary

OK, that’s all for tonight. A quick reminder of the key points.

Greece’s former finance minister, George Papaconstantinou has received a suspended jail sentence after being convicted of tampering with the list of suspected Greek tax evaders handed to Athens by Christine Lagarde.

Greece’s government is racing to put together a comprehensive reform plan to satisfy its creditors. The government says it should have it ready by Monday at the latest.

Analyst fear that Greece could run out of cash on April 20, without a deal.

Greece’s prime minister, Alexis Tsipras, has met with left-wing opposition leaders on the second day of his visit to Berlin. He also visited the Holocaust Memorial.

There are signs that relations with Germany are thawing; foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier says the atmosphere has improved “significantly”.

George Osborne, though, has told MPs that the ill-feeling between Greece and its eurozone neighbours is “palpable’, making Grexit more likely.

And George Soros has claimed there’s a 50% chance that Greece leaves the euro.

In other news...

Supermarket price wars and falling petrol prices have helped pull the UK inflation rate down to 0.0%.

It’s a cost of living boost, but may make it harder for workers to get sizeable pay rises after years of wage squeezes. Here’s Larry Elliott’s analysis.

US inflation has also come in at zero.

And there is hope that Europe’s economy is recovering, after private sector growth hit a near four-year high.

We’ll be back tomorrow. Goodnight all. GW

Back to the Athens courtroom....

And a court official told Helena that:

“This is as close to a acquittal as would be possible in the circumstances,”

The one-year sentence handed down to George Papaconstantinou was suspended for three years.

Papaconstantinou, in a dark suit, has told friends he is “relieved.”

The former finance minister had always protested his innocence and said he had been framed by a political establishment bent on finding convenient scapegoats to distract public attention from the crisis Greece was enduring.

One other piece of news....The Financial Times is reporting that the European Central Bank is set to make it illegal for Greek lenders to add to their holdings of government debt.

That would appear to make it impossible for Greek banks to provide Athens with extra funding to tide it through its cash flow crisis.

The FT says:

The governing council of national central bank governors and top ECB officials have waved through a proposal tabled by supervisors at the central bank to make legally binding their recent warnings to Greek banks against loading up on their sovereign’s short-term debt, or t-bills, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Papaconstantinou receives one-year suspended sentence

Athens special court has just handed down a one year suspended sentence to former finance minister George Papaconstantinou, reports Helena Smith.

Court sources have told Helena that of the 13 judges, five (including the presiding judge Nikos Passos) were in favour of acquitting Papaconstantinou over charges that he had tampered with the list of Swiss bank account holders.

Updated

The court (still deliberating over the sentence) accepted George Papaconstantinou’s “prior life” as a mitigating factor.

Addressing the wood-panelled court, the prosecutor proposed a sentence of four years.....

Court officials say it is almost certain that George Papaconstantiniou will not “spend a night” in jail, despite being convicted tonight of tampering with the Lagarde List.

Helena Smith our correspondent says the former minister smiled when the presiding judge read out the judgement.

Associated Press also believes Papaconstantiniou will avoid a custodial sentence.

Updated

Greek Court officials have now adjourned to deliberate on sentencing, following George Papaconstantinou’s conviction a few moments ago.

Our Helena Smith has been told that as the tampering charge is a misdemeanour and not a felony, it will be regarded as a lighter crime. Papaconstantinou is the first cabinet minister to be brought before a special tribunal in more than two decades.

Updated

Former Greek finance minister convicted over Lagarde List

Former finance minister George Papaconstantinou (C) sits between his lawyers, as he appears before a special court in Athens on February 25, 2015, to face charges for allegedly tampering with a confidential tax document known as the ‘Lagarde list’. AFP PHOTO/ Louisa GouliamakiLOUISA GOULIAMAKI/AFP/Getty Images
Former finance minister George Papaconstantinou, last month. Photograph: Louisa Gouliamaki/AFP/Getty Images

Breaking News! Former Greek finance minister George Papaconstantinou has been found guilty of tampering with the infamous “Lagarde list” of suspected tax evaders by special criminal court.

But Athens correspondent Helena Smith also reports that Papaconstantinou was exonerated of another charge, of breach of duty for not acting on the list handed to him by Christine Lagarde, the current IMF chief, who was then finance minister of France.

Papaconstantinou was in power when country’s debt crisis erupted and widely regarded as the architect of Greece’s first EU-IMF bailout programme.

He was accused of removing the names of three of his relatives from the list of some 2062 wealthy Greeks with Swiss bank accounts.

Updated

After a few days out of the spotlight, Yanis Varoufakis surfaced at the presidential palace in Athens today for talks with Prokopis Pavlopoulos.

Pavlopoulos said he plans regular meetings with Greece’s finance minister. That may dampen media chatter that Varoufakis is been sidelined after not joining Tsipras on his Berlin trip.

epa04676984 Greek President Prokopis Pavlopoulos (R) welcomes Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis (L) during their meeting in Athens, Greece, 24 March 2015. EPA/ALEXANDROS VLACHOS
. Photograph: Alexandros Vlachos/EPA
epa04676980 Greek President Prokopis Pavlopoulos (R) talks with Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis (L) during their meeting in Athens, Greece, 24 March 2015. EPA/ALEXANDROS VLACHOS
. Photograph: Alexandros Vlachos/EPA

What better way to mark your birthday? (many happy returns of the day, Mr Varoufakis!).

A man reads the front pages of the Greek newspapers hanging at a kiosk in central Athens, Greece, 24 March 2015.
. Photograph: Orestis Panagiotou/EPA

The atmospherics may have improved dramatically after last night’s talks but the Greek prime minister’s still faces the enormous challenge of “changing the narrative” among his own constituency, writes Helena Smith.

Officials hope that some of last night’s feel good politicking will rub off on relations between German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble and his Greek counterpart Yanis Varoufakis.

“In terms of atmospherics the [Merkel-Tsipras] meeting went very well. Both countries can now return to the substance of the matter at hand rather than reciprocal finger-pointing,” said the economics analyst Jens Bastian, a former member of the EU task force for Greece, speaking from the German capital.

“The hope is that both [Schauble and Varoufakis] can follow suit so that a constructive dialogue can return to the euro group of finance ministers instead of the bitterness and wrangling that we have seen during the past weeks.”

Bastian, who is German but lives in Greece, said the Tsipras government had had a “harsh meeting” with reality. “It is gradually starting to govern driven not by ideology but the institutional requirements of such a reality check.”

“Dissent within Syriza is going to be the big challenge for the Greek prime minister. The leadership he has shown in Berlin will have to be repeated in terms of explaining the reality on the ground in Athens, the need for structural reforms, to his own rank and file.”

Tsipras’ meeting with Merkel marked the first time a Greek prime minister had said openly in Berlin that the Germans weren’t responsible for the crisis, he said.

“That is important for the narrative both between the two countries but also in terms of domestic politics in Greece, in particular inside the governing Syriza party.” Bastian told the Guardian.

Another Reuters newsflash, suggesting signs of progress...

  • EUROGROUP HEAD DIJSSELBLOEM ASKS EURO ZONE BAILOUT FUND TO ANALYSE POSSIBLITY OF REFUNDING €1.2bn TO GREECE - FUND’S SPOKESMAN

Speaking of Greece.... a verdict is expected soon in the trial of former finance minister Giorgos Papakonstantinou.

Papakonstantinou is accused of removing the names of relatives from the Lagarde list of suspected Greek tax evaders, a charge he denied.

A Greek government insider has told Reuters that the country would run out of funds on April 20th without additional help from its lenders.

That suggests Greece can handle the next hurdle; the €467m due to the IMF on April 9th. but would then be close to the brink.

  • GREECE TO RUN OUT OF MONEY BY APRIL 20 WITHOUT FRESH FINANCIAL AID - SOURCE FAMILIAR WITH MATTER
  • GREECE HOPES TO GET €1.9bn IN ECB PROFITS ON GREEK BONDS, €1.2bn OF BANK RESCUE FUNDS IF EUROGROUP APPROVES REFORMS LIST-SOURCE

Osborne: Grexit risks are rising

The Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, has warned MPs that the risk of Greece leaving the euro is rising.

Testifying to the Treasury committee, Osborne claimed that the “ill will” around the table at recent EU meetings has been palpable.

Osborne also warned, though, that a Grexit could cause severe disruption. He cited the example of Black Wednesday when Britain was driven out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.

Once you have established the fact that a pegged currency can be broken….. the markets and others will seek to test that.

Greece is not the only weak economy in the eurozone.

Osborne is also discussing last week’s Budget -- you can follow the action in our Politics Live blog.

More US data just hit the wires.... and it’s encouraging.

New home sales have jumped by almost 8% to 539,000, the most in almost seven years.

Updated

Two pieces of new economic news have given rather different views of the US economy.

First, growth in America’s factory hit a five-month high, echoing the strong data from the eurozone this morning.

Markit’s US manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.3 this month from 55.1 in February, with new orders rising at the fastest rate since last October.

But then..... the Richmond Federal Reserves’s measures of manufacturing activity in its region tumbled to -8, from zero last month.

Cue another ripple through the foreign exchange markets....

Greek media are reporting that a Euro Working Group [made up of technical officials] will assess the country’s situation on a conference call tomorrow morning.

And.....the euro is continuing to slide.

The US dollar experienced dramatic swings as traders digested the news that US inflation rose to zero last month.

US dollar, March 24 2015
Euro vs US dollar today. Photograph: Thomson Reuters

As Ashraf Laidi, Chief Global Strategist at Cityindex.com, it’s still not clear whether the Federal Reserve will feel confident to raise interest rates soon:

The fact that core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy items) edged up to 1.7% from 1.6%, helps explain that the disinflation-bound trend in US retail prices is largely driven by the oil declines, which suggests that a continue stabilization in energy prices could lift headline CPI back towards the 1.0% level.

Yet, it would take an unlikely sharp and prolonged rally in oil prices in order for headline CPI to approach the Fed’s 2.0% objective and pave the way for a lift off in US interest rates.

Updated

Yesterday’s Merkel-Tsipras meeting makes the front pages in Germany too:

epa04676856 People walk past a kiosk offering newspapers in central Athens, Greece, 24 March 2015. The main articles of the newspapers is about the visit of Greek Premier Alexis Tsipras in Berlin to meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel. EPA/ORESTIS PANAGIOTOU
A kiosk in central Athens today. Photograph: Orestis Panagiotou/EPA

Over in Greece, the media reaction to last night’s meeting between Alexis Tsipras and Angela Merkel is generally positive.

But behind the scenes, some members of Tsipras’s government aren’t happy.

Helena Smith reports from Athens:

Greek newspapers this morning may have seen prime minister Alexis Tsipras’ visit to Berlin as a much-needed ice-breaker – with the government friendly Efimerida ton Syntakton hailing it as a “civil partnership”– but in Athens the battling lines are being drawn within the leader’s Syriza party.

Panagiotis Lafazanis, the energy minister who as head of the party’s militant wing, the Left Platform is effectively the number three in the government, reacted with fury this morning to the prospect of the national electricity company DEH, being privatised.

A united and public DEH was non-negotiable, he says.

“To privatize it would be a catastrophe for the economy,” he said adding that the leftist-led government’s goal was an exit from the crisis by pursuing policies of job-creating growth.

Lafazanis insisted:

“The government is trying to open positive paths for the people so that their income can return to pre-memorandum levels. It’s a titanic quest and it will be achieved whatever the pressures, threats, blackmailing and difficulties.”

The intervention underscored the difficulties the ruling coalition is likely to face when it is forced to vote legislation through parliament.

Speculation in Athens is rising that Tsipras may have to dump his far left comrades and seek backing from other pro-reform parties – but we are a long way off from that yet. HS

US inflation rises, to zero

Just in: US inflation was zero on an annual basis last month, matching the UK’s reading this morning.

But in America’s case, that’s actually an increase from the -0.1% CPI recorded in January.

Prices increased by 0.2% on a month-on-month basis, reversing a 0.7% tumble in January, as fuel prices picked up.

And core inflation, which strips out volatile elements, has risen to 1.7%. That suggests inflationary pressures may be increasing - putting a summer interest rate rise back on the agenda, perhaps.

Alexis Tsipras has also visited the Holocaust Memorial in Berlin today, as part of his first visit as Greek prime minister.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras (c) visits the Memorial to the Murdered Jews of Europe aka Holocaust Memorial in Berlin on March 24, 2015. Tspiras is making his first visit to the German capital since taking office in January 2015. AFP PHOTO / TOBIAS SCHWARZTOBIAS SCHWARZ/AFP/Getty Images
. Photograph: Tobias Schwarz/AFP/Getty Images
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras visits the Memorial to the Murdered Jews of Europe aka Holocaust Memorial in Berlin on March 24, 2015. Tspiras is making his first visit to the German capital since taking office in January 2015. AFP PHOTO / TOBIAS SCHWARZTOBIAS SCHWARZ/AFP/Getty Images
. Photograph: Tobias Schwarz/AFP/Getty Images

The FT’s Gideon Rachman has heard that Germany could provide some financial aid to Greece, in recognition of the horrors of the second world war.

That may be related to the Future Fund, which was set up last year to address the issue.

Greece’s prime minister tweets that he’s met with the leaders of Germany’s left-wing opposition parties, a day after his talks with Angela Merkel.

Germany: Relationship with Greece has improved

Time to turn back to the Greek debt crisis.

And German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier has told reporters in Berlin that relations between the two counties have improved.

Steinmeier (who has met with Alexis Tsipras today), said:

“I’m pleased that the atmosphere in German-Greek talks in recent days has changed and improved significantly.

And that warming of relations should help “serious talks” begin about Greece’s debts, he added.

Here’s Angela Monaghan’s news story on UK inflation:

And here’s Larry Elliott’s full analysis:

Updated

The TUC is also concerned about the underlying state of the UK economy.

General secretary Frances O’Grady said:

“Zero inflation is a reminder of how fragile the economy remains. Stagnating prices are not a sound foundation for the strong and sustained pay rises that workers have waited so long for.

“With deflation on the horizon, the Chancellor’s plans for extreme cuts after the election look more and more like a suicide note for the UK economy.”

Worth remembering that the Bank of England’s task is to keep inflation at 2% in the medium-term, not at zero....

File photo dated 16/03/07 of an oil rig in the North Sea, as Chancellor George Osborne announced a £1.3 billion package of support for the oil and gas industry in his final Budget before the general election. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Issue date: Wednesday March 18, 2015. Among the measures he set out is a cut in the supplementary charge on oil industry companies’ profits from 30% to 20%, backdated to January. See PA story BUDGET Main. Photo credit should read: Danny Lawson/PA Wire
.

With the election just 44 days away, the opposition Labour party isn’t giving the government much credit for Britain’s inflation data.

Cathy Jamieson MP, Labour’s Shadow Treasury minister, says:

“Inflation is falling around the world because global oil prices have plummeted, yet in Britain wages continue to be sluggish.

“Working people are £1,600 a year worse off under this government. And another Tory VAT rise if David Cameron wins the election will hit living standards and send prices rising again.

“A few months of falling world oil prices won’t solve the deep-seated problems in our economy. We need Labour’s better plan to build a more productive economy so we can earn our way to sustained rises in living standards and so get the deficit down too.”

Updated

Some historical context:

The UK Consumer Prices Index since 1989

Updated

The prime minister and chancellor shouldn’t be too complacent about the dangers of deflation, argues Ranko Berich, Head of Market Analysis at Monex Europe.

He points to the fact that price rises have slowed, or started falling, across the economy (see earlier chart).

George Osbourne and David Cameron have been quick to write off the ‘noflation’ as purely a symptom of lower fuel prices, pointing to the positive aspects of low inflation for British households.

While this argument certainly has some weight, today’s data also showed year-on-year deflation in five categories, including food, as well as slower price increases across many others. This suggests that the UK could well be succumbing to the wave of low inflation that has swept the eurozone, and a sustained period of deflation remains a key risk.

Inflation to fall into negative territory

David Kern, Chief Economist at the British Chambers of Commerce, also predicts that Britain’s inflation rate will fall below zero:

“These historically low figures reinforce our belief that inflation will fall into slightly negative territory in the coming months, before returning to a positive trend before the end of the year. However, we remain convinced that there is very little risk of a long period of deflation.

“Inflation in the service sector, which accounts for 80% of the UK economy, remains firmly above the government’s 2.0% target, and core CPI inflation in February was 1.2%. Together with higher earnings, lower inflation is boosting people’s spending power, and will contribute to economic growth in the year ahead.

“To sustain business confidence we need a firm commitment from the MPC to keep interest rates on hold until at least early 2016.”

Danielle Haralambous, UK analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, agrees that we should welcome this period of no-flation.

“The likelihood that we are on the verge of a period of deep and prolonged deflation in the UK remains slim.

Recent deviations in inflation from target have been largely driven by lower food and energy costs, which will provide a welcome boost to real household incomes and support prospects for the demand-driven recovery.”

Spot the pattern:

A wider measure of inflation, the retail prices index, also fell last month.

But unlike CPI, RPI showed that prices rose by around 1.0% annually. That’s the lowest since November 2009.

Updated

The drop in inflation has driven the London stock market to a new record high.

The FTSE index has jumped by another 24 points, or 0.35%, to 7062.

The pound has weakened, hitting a one-month low against the euro at €1.36, down from €1.365 yesterday.

Both moves show that traders believe UK monetary policy will remain extremely loose for some time. Last week, indeed, the Bank of England’s chief economist Andy Haldane suggested that an interest rate cut is as likely as a rise.

Updated

The elimination of inflation, however temporarily, is simply good news for the UK, argues Rob Wood of Berenberg Bank:

Cheaper imports, petrol and food are unmitigated good news for consumers and growth, which shows up in high consumer confidence.....

He reckons there’s little danger of Britain suffering full-blown deflation - a protracted period of falling prices, when people are reluctant to spend.

The UK can sit back and enjoy the purchasing power boost that low inflation today is bringing without fearing any of the sillier claims of what ‘deflation’ might bring, like households delaying purchases on the expectation that prices will be even lower tomorrow.

Larry Elliott: What zero inflation means for you

Larry Elliott, Guardian staff byline
.

The drop in inflation to zero means that living standards are going up, and interest rates are going nowhere soon. And it may mean that pay rises will be less generous.

Our economics editor Larry Elliott explains:

Britain is on the cusp of a period of deflation. It is the first time on record that inflation, measured by the consumer prices index, has hit zero, since the measure was created in 1989. This has three implications, two of them obvious, one less easy to assess.

The first is that living standards will rise. Average earnings are growing by just less than 2% a year, so with prices not rising at all people will find their wages and salaries go further.

The second implication is that there is likely to be a further delay before the Bank of England raises interest rates. The latest fall in inflation came as no surprise to Threadneedle Street but its nine-strong monetary policy committee is going to be in no hurry to raise the cost of borrowing.

That’s because it will want to see what zero inflation does to wage bargaining. At the moment, it is assumed that the fall in the cost of living is temporary and that inflation will pick up later this year. But it would be a different story if low inflation led to less generous pay settlements. If that were to happen, deflation could become tough to shift, as has been the case in Japan.

“We are looking for a couple of months of deflation in the UK”, predicts Jeremy Cook, chief economist at the international payments company, World First.

Enjoy no-flation while you can.

The CBI’s director of economics, Rain Newton-Smith, reckons it’s a temporary situation:

“Despite inflation dropping to zero, it is unlikely we will see falling prices for a prolonged period, particularly as the pressure from lower oil prices fades.

There’s little chance of the Bank of England raising interest rates anytime soon, Newton-Smith adds.

Chancellor George Osborne gives some of the credit to the falling oil price.....

...before following up with another of his witty puns.

Cameron: Zero inflation is good news for families

The drop in inflation means that real incomes in the UK continues to rise, after declining for several years.

British pay packets are rising by 1.8% annually (or 1.6% excluding bonuses) according to the latest data. So with inflation at zero, so are real incomes.

The prime minister has leapt on the news:

Updated

Economists reckon that the UK is now heading into a period of negative inflation:

Inflation: the key charts

This table confirms that food and transport costs dragged inflation down to zero:

UK inflation to February 2015
Contributions to the CPI 12-month rate in February 2015 Photograph: ONS

And this chart is a reminder that inflation spent most of the last seven years above the official target of 2%, before its recent slide:

UK inflation to February 2015
UK inflation to February 2015 Photograph: ONS

Updated

This is the first time on record that the consumer prices index has hit zero, according to figures going back to 1989.

The ONS suggest that inflation may have been lower in 1960, though, according to Reuters.

Updated

UK food prices fall 3.4%

The drop in inflation was caused by a big drop in food prices, which fell by 3.4% in the year to February.

Motor fuels tumbled by 16.6%, due to the sharp fall in oil prices in recent months.

The Office for National Statistics also attributes the fall to:

“price movements for a range of recreational goods (particularly data processing equipment, books and games, toys & hobbies), food and furniture & furnishings.”

This is a bigger fall in inflation than expected.

Economists had predicted that the consumer prices index would slide to just 0.1% in February, down from 0.3% in January. But instead, CPI has come in at exactly zero.

UK inflation falls to 0.0%

Breaking: The UK inflation rate has fallen to zero for the first time on record.

More to follow.....

France is lagging behind the rest of the eurozone for job creation, and output growth, according to Markit’s new PMI survey.

Eurozone PMI, March 2015
.
Eurozone PMI, March 2015
.

Eurozone recovery: what the experts say

Economists are cheering the news that the eurozone private sector is growing at the fastest rate since May 2011:

Eurozone private sector growth hits near four-year high

The eurozone recovery is alive and well.

Firms across the euro are growing much faster than expected this month, according to Markit’s latest survey of the sector.

The eurozone composite PMI, just released, smashed expectations by jumping to 54.1 this month, up from 53.6 in February. That’s the highest reading since May 2011, driven by a recovery in the service sector.

As mentioned earlier in the blog, Germany is growing at its fastest rate for 10 months, while growth in France eased back.

But importantly, the rest of the eurozone is enjoying strong growth; new order growth and job creation was both the strongest since mid-2007.

It suggests the eurozone economy is picking up pace, and should get another boost from the European Central Bank’s new quantitative easing programme.

Eurozone PMI, March 2015
Eurozone PMI, March 2015 Photograph: Markit

Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit said:

“The eurozone’s economic recovery gained further momentum in March, with the PMI hitting its highest for almost four years. The improvement provides welcome news to a region awaiting signs that the ECB’s quantitative easing is stimulating the real economy.

Deflationary pressures ‘eased’ this month, Williamson says, suggesting the eurozone will avoid a deep deflationary spiral. He adds:

The survey data therefore indicate that the ECB’s quantitative easing has been started at a time when the eurozone’s economic upturn is already starting to gain traction. This augurs well for the region to enjoy further improvements in business conditions as the year proceeds, helping drive greater business investment and hiring, and thereby ensuring that the recovery becomes sustainable.

Updated

The euro has jumped half a cent against the US dollar on the back of the news that the German economy is accelerating.

Not that it’s a huge shock.

Strong economic data from Germany - its private sector is growing at the fastest rate in eight months.

The German composite PMI has risen to 55.3, from 53.8 in February - meaning 23 months of consecutive growth. Manufacturing and services both grew at a faster rate.

Germany is entering the “domestic fast lane again”, says Markit economist Oliver Kolodseike.

Updated

Hopes that France’s economy was recovering have just taken a knock.

Markit’s monthly healthcheck of the sector shows that growth in France’s private sector slowed this month.

The French composite PMI fell to 51.7 this month, down from 52.2 in February [where any reading over 50 = growth]. Service sector expansion slowed, while factory output continued to fall.

The data implies a ‘modest’ rise in GDP this quarter, Markit says.

Soros: 50% chance Greece will quit the euro

George Soros.
.

Billionaire philanthropist George Soros has declared there’s a 50:50 chance that Greece will leave the eurozone, due to the mistakes of the past.

Soros made the comments in an interview with Bloomberg, being broadcast later today.

In it, he warned that:

“It’s now a lose-lose game and the best that can happen is actually muddling through....Greece is a long-festering problem that was mishandled from the beginning by all parties.”

The 84-year old, who famously beat the Bank of England on Black Wednesday, also said that the deadlock between Greece and its creditors is hurting its economy badly. As a result, “Greece is going down the drain.”

More details here: Soros Says Greece Is Now ‘Lose-Lose Game’ After Being Mishandled

Greece’s three-year government bonds are strengthening, a little, on the back of today’s comments from Athens, and from Martin Schulz:

Yields are still very high, around 21%, implying a high risk of default.

Updated

Schulz: Deal could come this week

Another optimistic sign - European Parliament chief Martin Schulz has predicted that Greece and its creditors could secure a breakthrough this week.

He told Italy’s La Repubblica that:

“I think by the end of this week a new deal will be reached that should be sufficient to release the most urgent financing,”

Greece would then have “not more than three months” to present a “credible, detailed and definitive” plan, Schulz added.

That makes sense; Greece’s current bailout extension runs until the end of June.

Alexis Tsipras is still in Berlin, and due to meet with the leaders of Germany’s opposition Left and Green parties.

Germany’s Deutsche Welle newspaper reports that Angela Merkel and Alexis Tsipras spoke until almost midnight about the situation in Europe, at their ‘working dinner’

Chancellor Merkel’s spokesman Steffen Seibert told reporters late last night that:

“The chancellor and the Greek prime minister had a comprehensive discussion in a good and constructive atmosphere about the situation in Greece, the procedures of the European Union and future German-Greek cooperation,”

Greece: We'll present reform package by Monday

News from Athens: Greece will present a new reform programme to its creditors by next Monday, potentially unlocking bailout funds and averting the risk of bankruptcy.

The news comes less than 12 hours after prime minister Alexis Tsipras and Angela Merkel ended their talks in Berlin.

Reuters has the details:

Greece will present its proposed package of reforms to its euro zone partners by next Monday in hopes they will release much needed cash, its government spokesman said on Tuesday.

“It will be done at the latest by Monday,” government spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis told Mega TV.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin on Monday but it was unclear if they had narrowed differences on economic reforms Athens must implement to win urgently to get fresh aid from its creditors.

Sakellaridis said the package of reforms Athens will propose will not contain recessionary measures but structural changes.

He said Tsipras and Merkel on Monday discussed the outline of the reforms but did not go into depth.

“I believe points of convergence were found,” Sakellaridis said.

Time is short; on April 9th , Greece must repay €467m to the International Monetary Fund.

If it does convince its creditors next week, then they could unlock some of the €7.2bn bailout tranche which is being withheld.

This could call for another crunch meeting in Brussels.....

The Agenda: Greek developments and UK falling inflation

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Today we’ll be assessing the situation in Greece after yesterday’s visit by Alexis Tsipras to meet Angela Merkel.

The two leaders struck a fairly conciliatory tone during last night’s press conference [even though Tsipras mentioned the war reparations], but there’s no sign yet of a breakthrough deal to unlock fresh funds for Greece.

In the UK, we get the latest inflation data at 9.30am – and economists reckon it could fall to just 0.1% as low energy costs ripple through the economy.

On the economic side, the latest PMI surveys are being released this morning (from 8am to 9am GMT) They are expected to show the eurozone’s manufacturing and service sectors continuing to expand this month as the slow recovery continues.

We’ve already had downbeat news from China -- its factory activity has fallen to an 11-month low, suggesting its economy is slowing down. More stimulus could be needed....

European stock markets are expected to dip this morning.

I’ll be tracking all the main events through the day....

Updated

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Plus: How to win the medal count, and how Free Agent readers want to fix the Olympics
Reason
Reason
What Is 'Diecided'? The Alleged Epstein-Linked Code Stirring Online Theories — and Why Selena Gomez and Candace Owens Are Being Mentioned
Explore the intriguing 'diecided' term from Epstein's emails, its connection to Selena Gomez, and the rise of clone theories
International Business Times UK
International Business Times UK
Nearly half of Americans unaware of link between eating processed meat and colorectal cancer
Colorectal cancer is the second-leading cause of cancer deaths in the US
The Independent UK
The Independent UK
“A historically significant instrument directly tied to the evolution of modern funk”: The bass Bootsy Collins used to record a James Brown anthem has been listed on eBay
The Fender Jazz Bass bought at auction for $40,000, has now been listed on eBay for almost twice as much. But you’ll have to bid an extra $299 if you want the original strings
Guitar World
Guitar World
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