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Bangkok Post
Bangkok Post
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Great escape could lead to backlash

Friday was supposed to be Judgement Day but became Great Escape Day when former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra reportedly managed to sneak out of the country ahead of the verdict by the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Political Position Holders.

Ms Yingluck had been accused of dereliction of duty in her handling of her government's much-hyped rice pledging scheme that cost the state losses running into hundreds of billions of baht.

It is yet to be determined which route she took to escape but it is clear that the coup-led government is very happy that she did buckle under pressure and eventually decided to escape. It was the best option for the military government. Up until Friday, the government had hoped that Ms Yingluck would run away because it would have been their worst nightmare had she been jailed for something that had helped farmers across the country.

The suddenly efficient judiciary did not spend years, as in the Red Bull case, to issue an arrest warrant, but instead within an hour or so an arrest warrant was issued for Ms Yingluck to appear at the court when the next hearing is held on Sept 27.

What perplexes people like myself is how it is possible that the government did not know when Ms Yingluck escaped. This government had plainclothes officers following her ever since the coup of May 22, 2014, and many times she went on social media to vent her frustration about how these officers were invading her private life.

So how is it possible that such a great escape went without being noticed by the authorities? Or was it that they helped her because it was in their best interests to do so? Coup leader and incumbent Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha was in an exceptionally good mood a day before Judgement Day when he attended the Bangkok Post Forum and gave a speech on the reforms that the country needs to undertake in the years ahead.

After his shorter-than-expected speech of about one hour and 40 minutes, Gen Prayut ignored his security cordon and went out to meet and greet hundreds of attendees -- a move that surprised everyone because we, as the organisers, were prepared for his possible mood swings.

One wonders if Gen Prayut, who was about to face one of the toughest days of his three-year iron-fisted rule, knew something that others did not. That is something that will be known in the future but what is assured is the fact that the military strongmen have got what they want, which is the demise of the once powerful Pheu Thai Party.

The escape of another Shinawatra clan member is most likely to have a severe impact on the party's future and its workings. The party's working team are already wondering how things will shape up in the near future and possibly at the next general election slated to take place late next year.

Many party members are starting to question whether it is right for them to stay in the party or shift their allegiance to a new party in order to avoid facing a similar fate to what has happened since 2006. From 2006 until now, four prime ministers under Pheu Thai and the defunct People's Power Party have lost their positions and two Shinawatra family members have had to escape from the country.

Politicians could run for cover to other parties, weakening Pheu Thai, which was still commanding a leading position in polls undertaken by various government agencies up until three or four months ago.

But what is more worrisome is the fact that there is another school of thought which sees Ms Yingluck's escape as more of a breakdown of a possible negotiation with the powers that be. Ms Yingluck did not budge until the last minute, which meant that negotiations were ongoing until that time but had failed. Many people view this as being a worst-case scenario because such a breakdown could be the start of more problems in the near future.

Could this breakdown lead to a backlash from the Shinawatra family similar to the one witnessed during the 2010 protests or even worse? It is our only hope that this country does not lose more than it already has over the past decade, where infighting has led to what is being called "the lost decade" and Thailand has started to lose its charm as an investment destination.

The country does not need more conflicts but instead more of a compromise to allow all sides to live peacefully and prosper, but the time to foster reconciliation might already have flown off with Ms Yingluck in her great escape.


Umesh Pandey is Bangkok Post editor.

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