11am Trickster penalised for Newbury win
Tricky Trickster may have blown his chance of Grand National glory by winning the Aon Chase at Newbury on Saturday. The seven-year-old will now have to carry at least 11st 4lb in the Aintree race on April 10, for which he is the 12-1 favourite.
The weights have just been unveiled by last year's winning trainer, Venetia Williams, at a ceremony in London's Park Lane. Tricky Trickster is 15th in the list and will have to carry more than any winner since Corbiere in 1983, who also had 11st 4lb.
The weights are headed by three joint-topweights, Albertas Run, Madison Du Berlais and Notre Pere, all of whom will have to shoulder 11st 10lb if they run. Next in the list is Taranis on 11st 9lb.
There is every chance that the weights will not have to be raised before the race, as Madison Du Berlais is reportedly being trained for the National. In any case, the weights should not go up by more than 3lb, as Mon Mome, last year's winner, has been set 11st 7lb and is certain to run if he remains healthy.
I will be talking to trainers as they arrive here and revealing their reactions through the afternoon.
11.30am Fancied War Of Attrition will not run
Trainer Mouse Morris has ruled former Cheltenham Gold Cup winner War Of Attrition, as low as 16-1 in the betting, out of the race. The Irish trainer has expressed his disgust at the 11-year-old's allotted weight of 11st 1lb in the Aintree feature and he will now skip the April 10 contest.
Morris had hoped to take in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at Cheltenham before going on to the National but he was very disappointed with the handicapper's assessment of his horse.
"I think with that weight they are basically saying they don't want us to run," he said. "If [joint top-weight] Albertas Run is rated 164 and we are getting 9lb, that means he's rating us 155. I entered our horse in a handicap chase at Sandown the other week and they rated him 149, so I don't know how they've come up with 11st 1lb to be honest.
"We've decided we're not going to go as we won't be going where we're not wanted and I don't know how he can justify that weight. The plan now would be to go straight to the World Hurdle and he'll then probably have his last run at the Punchestown Festival in the Guinness Gold Cup or the big staying hurdle race.
11.45am Niche Market owner is bullish
Phil Smith, Britain's senior handicapper, says he has raised Tricky Trickster by 3lb for Saturday's effort, which means the horse would have had 11st 1lb if he had stayed in his box, the same weight that was carried to victory by Hedgehunter in 2005.
Niche Market, narrowly beaten by Tricky Trickster, is also on 11st 4lb, which is 4lb higher than his previous rating. But his owner, Graham Regan, is not downhearted. Quite the reverse, in fact.
When I asked if he regretted running at Newbury on Saturday, Regan told me; "No. They don't make money standing at home in their boxes. The minute you decide to wrap them in cotton wool, something happens. They're there to be raced.
"He'll run at Cheltenham in the William Hill Trophy [on 16 March] because I think he's got a great chance in it, and then he'll go on to the National. Last year, he ran at the Festival in the four-miler [finishing eighth behind Tricky Trickster] and three weeks later he won the Irish Grand National, so we know he takes his racing.
"I'm delighted there's three topweights because that'll hopefully keep the weights where they are. Our fella jumps and stays and he can carry weight. As long as he doesn't get lonely out in front, he'll be there or thereabouts."
Regan has backed his horse at all rates from 50-1 down to 20-1 and says he will go in again at 16-1 when he gets home tonight.
12.10pm How much weight is too much in the Grand National?
The question is a vexed one because results appear to show that it is next to impossible to win under top weight or within a few pounds of it. The last horse to win with more than 11st 5lb on its back was Red Rum, the greatest horse in the race's history, who won despite 11st 8lb in 1977 and 12st in 1974.
Grittar carried 11st 5lb to victory in 1982 and Corbiere had 11st 4lb the following year. Since then, Mon Mome (11st last year) and Hedgehunter (11st 1lb in 2005) are the only winners to have carried 11st or more.
The Grand National is, of course, an extreme test of stamina, thanks to the combination of distance, demanding fences and strong pace. As horses get tired, the weight on their backs has an increasing effect, so that the difference of a few pounds has a much greater importance than would normally be the case in, say, an eight-runner race over three miles at Huntingdon.
Still, many pundits refuse to believe that a horse's chance is reduced by having to carry 11st 4lb instead of 11st. And Smith has deliberately changed the way he allocates the weights to give those at the top of the list a better chance than before.
Smith gives the top weights a few pounds less to carry, relative to those below them, than they would get in a normal race. Albertas Run, for instance, only has 6lb more than Tricky Trickster, instead of the 12lb he would have had to give away if they were to meet anywhere else.
Smith reckons that his changes mean that weight matters less than in the past. "If you look at the percentage of horses that have carried 11st plus, as opposed to 10st plus, the fact that two with 11st or more have won in the last five years is about right," he said just now. "But this year is very different, because there's 30 horses set to carry 11st plus at this moment in time."
A maximum of 40 horses can run in the Grand National. If there are still more than 40 entered at the overnight stage, the ones with the lower weights are eliminated, so some trainers are actually anxious to have their horses get a pound or two extra.
Smith reckons the cut-off point this year will be around the 10st 5lb or 10st 6lb mark, meaning that the difference from top weight to bottom weight will only be around 19lb. Again, that should mean that the top weights have a better chance than in the past.
Smith says he has raised Palypso De Creek and Royal Rosa by a few pounds because of their good efforts in defeat in the Becher Chase, over the National fences in autumn. That means that those horses have a chance of sneaking into the race at the bottom of the weights.
The quantity of class horses entered this year is illustrated by the lowly position of Hello Bud, last year's Scottish National winner, who ought to be an ideal horse for the race. He is on 10st 6lb but is 70th in the list and will need 30 horses above him to be withdrawn before 10 April if he is to get into the race.
12.55pm Hi Harchibald
Whinstone Boy is 84th in the weights on 10st 4lb and will need a lot of withdrawals if he is to get into the race. If Phil Smith is right about the cut-off point, he will just miss out.
1pm Nicholls unconcerned about Tricky weight
Paul Nicholls says he has no regrets about running Tricky Trickster on Saturday, despite the fact that the horse has 3lb more to carry in the Grand National because of his victory at Newbury.
"I'm not the slightest bit worried," Nicholls said to me just now. "He's a big horse, it won't make any difference to him. Three pounds over four and a half miles is absolutely nothing.
"He won a nice race, which is good for his owner, Chris Giles, who is new to the game. In my view, 3lb is neither here nor there. You don't worry about 3lb because one good jump or one mistake can make the difference and the improvement in him will more than negate the 3lb.
"Things have changed a lot now. One of these days, a class horse is going to win off top weight because Phil Smith is compressing the weights and trying to get better horses to run."
Conversely, Nicholls pointed out that one of his other entrants, Big Fella Thanks, has been dropped 3lb to 10st 12lb, after unseating Ruby Walsh at Kempton on Friday. "He looks quite well treated," the champion trainer said.
"He finished sixth [in last year's Grand National], he ran a blinding race. From the minute he came back in July, this was going to be his target and I've trained him accordingly. He's going to have another run at Newbury on 5 March to sharpen him up and he must go there with a leading chance.
"Nozic [11st 3lb] jumped round last year [in the Topham Chase, a shorter race over the National fences]. He ran a nice race on his debut at Newcastle and then got stuck in the mud at Chepstow, really bad ground. He wants better ground, he wants to be fresh, so he's going straight to the race. He's a horse with a lively outside chance.
"My Will [11st 2lb] was third last year. He's been out of form a bit of late but better ground is what he wants. He's going to have a run in the Gold Cup and then go there. He will improve for better ground in spring."
Nicholls also has Taranis entered in the race. Having won a valuable race at Cheltenham in January on his first race for more than two years, Taranis has been lumbered with 11st 9lb.
"He's going to run in the Gold Cup and then we'll decide whether to run or not. The weight, with him, won't be an issue because he's a Grade One winner, he always carries plenty of weight. It may be that we'll wait another year with him, I've got to discuss that with [his owner] Mrs Yeoman."
2.50pm Trainers respond to the weights
The press conference has taken a quick break, so here's a round-up of some of the opinions offered.
Venetia Williams said she had no complaints about Mon Mome being given 11st 7lb, in view of how he accelerated clear of the field on the run-in last year, carrying 11st. "He seems to be in good form," she said of the 10-year-old, who is due to run at Haydock on Saturday.
Williams also has Flintoff in the race, the horse having been sent back to her after a brief sojourn at Tim Vaughan's yard. Pulled up in the Welsh National, Flintoff has been given 10st 5lb and the trainer said he is "quite an intelligent horse. I'd be hopeful he'd take to it."
Dessie Hughes said he had no complaints about the handicapping of his Becher winners, Vic Venturi and Black Apalachi, both of which are on 11st 6lb. Asked to choose between them, Hughes diplomatically said it was "very hard to call". Both are due to run in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse on Saturday.
Hughes added that Siegemaster would not run in the National, as he is "feeling the effects" of his run at Navan on Saturday. As Siegemaster was 21st in the list, that means that all those below are already a bit closer to getting into the race.
Another unlikely runner is French-trained Louping D'Ainay. His trainer, Francois Cottin, said he would like to run the 11-year-old but he has been on the sidelines since November 2008. A return to the track is planned for the near future at a French course but Cottin feels a visit to Aintree is not likely to follow.
Nigel Twiston-Davies, who has won the National with Bindaree and Earth Summit, has seven entries this time. He named Razor Royale, Irish Raptor and Hello Bud as his main contenders and refused to pick between the three. His son, Sam, needs to ride four more winners in order to be allowed to ride in the race and Twiston-Davies believes that is possible. He would be happy to give his son a ride in the race but would not be drawn further on jockey arrangements at this early stage.
5.10pm Mullins and Pipe have many options
Willie Mullins has 10 horses entered in the race but Ballytrim (10st 1lb) and Pomme Tiepy (9st 12lb) are highly unlikely to get into the race, having 90 horses above them in the weights. Mullins said that Jayo was "probably too young" at the age of seven, while Dooneys Gate, a recent winner over two miles, was so unlikely to stay that he probably wouldn't run.
The Irishman said Snowy Morning (10st 13lb) and Irish Invader (11st 5lb) offered his best chances of success but both were well beaten in last year's race and he was "astounded" that the pair have not received more lenient treatment from the handicapper.
Still, he is hopeful that a change of tactics may produce an improved run from Snowy Morning. He feels the horse is a keen sort who was disappointed by being held up last year and may benefit from being allowed to stride out this time. Ninth last year, Snowy Morning had been third in the 2008 race behind Comply Or Die. He is a 33-1 shot this time.
Of his other runners, Mullins talked up the chances of Equus Maximus (10st 9lb), Beroni (10st 13lb) and Deutschland (10st 12lb), though only the first of those is a definite runner at this stage. He was not so complimentary about Arbor Supreme (10st 8lb), who, he said, was "not the greatest jumper out of soft ground. I think he'd want it good".
David Pipe has nine entries, headed by the 2008 winner, Comply Or Die. "He has the experience round there and he's in great form," Pipe said. "There are some of mine which are less exposed, but he's Mr Reliable."
Comply Or Die is on 11st 5lb, 1lb less than he carried in last year's race, when he was the 12-length runner-up to Mon Mome.
Pipe also gave a good mention to his The Package (10st 7lb), winner of a handicap at Cheltenham in December when last seen. "He's a horse that we've always thought a lot of and there's probably more to come," he said.
Madison Du Berlais is an intended runner, despite being lumbered with top weight of 11st 10lb. "He acts well on flat tracks," said Pipe, who provoked laughter by saying the horse had "jumped well until falling" at the eighth fence in the 2008 race.
Pipe was cagey about running plans for his other entrants, including Faasel, who has left Nicky Richards' yard since he last ran in summer. "He won't get into the National but he'll run in something at Cheltenham," Pipe said. "He's got lots of talent but he's a rogue."
6pm McCain rants at 'soft' Grand National
A staple of the build-up to each year's Grand National is a colourfully expressed complaint from Ginger McCain, trainer of Red Rum, that the race has gone soft since his day. McCain seized the opportunity of today's gathering to say he was "bloody disgusted" by the fact that almost half the field was still in contention with two fences to jump in last year's race.
"That's not Grand National," he said. "Put the top weight back up to 12st, have stiffer fences and put one or two of the drops [on the landing sides] back in and that'll sort that lot out. You don't make it easier to climb Mount Everest by taking 10,000 feet off the top!"
McCain referred to Britain's senior handicapper, Phil Smith, as "a bollocks", though he then acknowledged that last year's race proved Smith had done his job well. "But Liverpool [should] make men of boys and a mockery of the handicapper and that's great," he added.
McCain's comments drew an indulgent response from 91-year-old former commentator Peter O'Sullevan. "There are very few men who can talk more utter rubbish, more engagingly than he can," he said.
6.30pm Big Fella the one?
As any punter knows, you have to be very careful when inviting a bookmaker to give you advice as to what might win a race. Still, I found it very interesting that both David Williams of Ladbrokes and David Hood of William Hill gave me quite similar responses when I asked for their Grand National views.
Both feel that Niche Market, rather than Tricky Trickster, is the horse to take out of the Aon Chase on Saturday. They argue that Niche Market finished so tired because he was the only runner to attempt to take the fight to Denman down the back straight. Had he been ridden in the careful, hold-up fashion that Tricky Trickster was ridden, they feel he would have stayed on stoutly to win.
Both seem content to lay Tricky Trickster at the current 12-1 but said they would be more cautious about market interest in his stablemate Big Fella Thanks, a 20-1 shot who ran sixth in the race last year and is reckoned to be more experienced this time.
Weights for the John Smith's Grand National
Horse (followed by age and weight).
Albertas Run 9-11-10; Madison Du Berlais 9-11-10; Notre Pere 9-11-10; Taranis 9-11-09; Our Vic 12-11-08; Mon Mome 10-11-07; Black Apalachi 11-11-06; Joe Lively 11-11-06; Vic Venturi 10-11-06.
Comply Or Die 11-11-05; Don't Push It 10-11-05; Irish Invader 9-11-05; Made In Taipan 8-11-04; Niche Market; Tricky Trickster 7-11-04; Casey Jones 9-11-03; Cloudy Lane 10-11-03; Dream Alliance 9-11-03; Nozic 9-11-03; Possol 7-11-03; Siegemaster 9-11-03; My Will 10-11-02; Pablo Du Charmil 9-11-02; One Cool Cookie 9-11-01; War Of Attrition 11-11-01; Backstage 8-11-00; Ballyholland 9-11-00; Beat The Boys 9-11-00; Preists Leap 10-11-00; Roulez Cool 7-11-00.
Beroni 8-10-13; Can't Buy Time 8-10-13; Le Beau Bai 7-10-13; Seven Is My Number 8-10-13; Snowy Morning 10-10-13; Air Force One 8-10-12; Big Fella Thanks 8-10-12; Darkness 11-10-12; Deutschland 7-10-12; Louping D'ainay 11-10-12; Character Building 10-10-11; Chelsea Harbour 10-10-11; Dooneys Gate 9-10-11; Gone To Lunch 10-10-11; Kornati Kid 8-10-11; State Of Play 10-10-11; Ellerslie George 10-10-10; Follow The Plan 7-10-10; Jayo 7-10-10; Royal County Star 11-10-10; Ballyfitz 10-10-09; Conna Castle 11-10-09; Equus Maximus 10-10-09; Eric's Charm 12-10-09; King Johns Castle 11-10-09; Ollie Magern 12-10-09; Arbor Supreme 8-10-08; Cane Brake 11-10-08; Kilcrea Castle 8-10-08; Lennon 10-10-08; Maljimar 10-10-08; New Alco 9-10-08; Bible Lord 9-10-07; Irish Raptor 11-10-07; Mr Pointment 11-10-07; Parsons Pistol 8-10-07; Piraya 7-10-07; Razor Royale 8-10-07; The Package 7-10-07.
Hello Bud 12-10-06; Iris De Balme 10-10-06; Palypso De Creek 7-10-06; Trust Fund 12-10-06; Abbeybraney 9-10-05; Cerium 9-10-05; Flintoff 9-10-05; Parsons Legacy 12-10-05; Royal Rosa 11-10-05; Silver Birch 13-10-05; Coe 8-10-04; Glenfinn Captain 11-10-04; Knowhere 12-10-04; Oodachee 11-10-04; Whinstone Boy 9-10-04; Faasel 9-10-03; Mumbles Head 9-10-03; Officier De Reserve 8-10-03; Sizing Australia 8-10-03; Trabolgan 12-10-03; Chief Dan George 10-10-02; Duers 8-10-02; Ballytrim 9-10-01; Offshore Account 10-10-01; Pak Jack 10-10-01; Boychuk 9-10-00; Kings Advocate 10-10-00; Treacle 9-10-00.
Galant Nuit 6-9-13; Anothercoppercoast 10-9-12; Belon Gale 7-9-12; Pomme Tiepy 7-9-12; Merigo 9-9-10; Chiaro 8-9-09; Kilbeggan Blade 11-9-09; According To John 10-9-08; Lorum Leader 9-9-07; Old Benny 9-9-07.
Over The Creek 11-9-04; Cossack Dancer 12-9-01; Wee Robbie; Offaly 9-8-12.
