Thunder And Roses (Age 10, weight 10st 5lb)
Won the Irish Grand National in 2015, beating Rule The World at level weights, form which looked pretty good when the runner-up won the next year’s Grand National. Has not won since and yet somehow remains 6lb higher than for his Fairyhouse success. Was not to blame for his jockey being knocked out of the saddle in this last year but harder to make excuses for his falls in his last two races, since he got about halfway up the fence on each occasion and was under no great pressure at the time. The ability is probably still in there somewhere.
Blaklion (9, 11st 10lb)
Looked the likely winner when going clear after the third-last a year ago but was on fumes by the final fence and faded into fourth. More conservative tactics might help but he’s 9lb higher and carries 12lb more in absolute terms. Romped to glory in the Becher, showing how well he goes round here, but the extra weight he got for that did not help at Haydock in February, where he couldn’t go with the easy winner and finished tired.
Anibale Fly (8, 11st 8lb)
Travelled well and was still going on at the finish when third in the Gold Cup, suggesting he might cope with this distance. Beat 27 rivals by daylight in a hotly contested handicap chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Still on a beatable rating but this is asking a lot, with a big weight to carry. Doesn’t always get that high at his fences and took a heavy fall in the Irish Gold Cup. Also took a liberty at Cheltenham’s third-last and there is likely to be at least one scare along the way.
The Last Samuri (10, 11st 8lb)
Couldn’t finish quite as strongly as a classy rival when second in the 2016 National. Shot up the ratings, has not won since and is still 10lb higher than that day. Faded into a well-beaten 16th last year and something similar seems likely. Admirably consistent but in need of luck.
Valseur Lido (9, 11st 7lb)
Wasn’t far off the best when with Willie Mullins, for whom he won two Grade Ones as a novice. May well have won the 2016 Irish Gold Cup, but for unseating at the last. Missed a year and four runs since his comeback seem to show him in decline. Still high in the weights, just 5lb below his peak, and would need something like his best to get involved here. Stamina must also be taken on trust, as he’s never raced beyond three miles and a furlong.
Total Recall (9, 11st 5lb)
Instantly improved by last summer’s move to Willie Mullins, since when his only failure has been a fall in the Gold Cup. Won the Munster National easily and then scrambled home in the Ladbrokes Trophy, when held up for a late challenge. Now 9lb higher but likely to have more to offer and wasn’t out of it when hitting the deck at Cheltenham. A clear round will surely put him in contention.
Alpha Des Obeaux (8, 11st 4lb)
Not far short of the best as a staying hurdler and useful over fences but is rated to the hilt of his ability. Ran a fair race to be eighth in last year’s Irish National, when he was hampered by a faller, and beaten only by Total Recall in the Munster National, trying to give him lumps of weight. Not usually a strong finisher and has broken blood vessels at times.
Perfect Candidate (11, 11st 3lb)
Cheltenham specialist who has run many fine races there but not usually to the same level elsewhere. Pulled up at the fourth-last a year ago and only 2lb lower in the weights this time but trainer says he had an interrupted preparation then. A sound jumper and solid stayer with no secrets from the handicapper and likely to be outpaced by something if still in contention after the last.
Shantou Flyer (8, 11st 2lb)
Would have an extra 4lb to carry if the weights had not been set in February, since when he ran a fine second at the Cheltenham Festival, finishing strongly to be beaten by a neck. Promising teenage jockey who rode that day will be aboard again. Pulled up four fences from home last year but was only seven and entitled to do better now. Hasn’t won since but several efforts have suggested he is ready for this marathon trip. Slight concern that his Cheltenham form is so much better than elsewhere.
Tenor Nivernais (11, 11st 1lb)
A front-runner when things go well, he never got involved last year and finished 17th. In common with most of his stablemates, has been well below his best this year but the yard is now getting winners. Wins over fences have come in small fields, which does not augur well here. It’s more than five years since he won at a track where the bends go to the left.
Carlingford Lough (12, 11st 1lb)
Irish Gold Cup winner of 2015 and 2016, this veteran has dropped a stone from his peak rating in the past year and is now on a weight that would make him dangerous if he returned to something like his best. Has shown little in four runs this season but all came before New Year, when he has not traditionally been at his best. Interesting.
Delusionofgrandeur (8, 10st 5lb)
Has been useful and consistent around the northern tracks this winter but it’s hard to believe he has the class for this and his stamina seems to have been exposed by weak finishing efforts in his last two starts.
Tiger Roll (8, 10st 13lb)
Three times a winner at the Cheltenham Festival, including in the Cross-Country last month. Has also won a Munster National, so neither big fields nor marathon distances are a problem. He’s not wonderfully consistent and was well beaten on the two previous occasions when he ran a month after Festival success. Also, he’s not the biggest and could meet trouble when the field bunches up at the Becher’s – Canal Turn section of the course. But he undoubtedly has the talent to win and it would be no surprise if he did so with authority.
Vieux Lion Rouge (9, 10st 13lb)
Hoping it can be third time lucky but the limitations of his stamina seemed to be exposed by the last two Nationals. Has had a poor season, failing to finish within 12 lengths of a winner, but is slightly higher in the ratings than for his previous two attempts, which hardly seems fair. Comes from a stable having a poor run.
Chase The Spud (10, 10st 12lb)
Muddy marathons are the thing for this winner of last year’s Midlands National. On drier ground or against classy opposition, he generally gets left behind. Having won at Haydock in November, he went up 10lb and has struggled in two subsequent runs, suggesting he lacks the necessary quality unless it rains plenty.
Warriors Tale (9, 10st 12lb)
A dogged galloper, he goes well at Newbury and should therefore be suited by this circuit. Looked as though he was reaching the limits of his stamina when headed close home in the Great Yorkshire Chase, over a mile shorter than this. Up against it, on a rating 12lb higher than when he last won.
Seeyouatmidnight (10, 10st 12lb)
Third in the Scottish National two years ago, though his jumping was scrappy at times and his stamina gave out about a furlong from the line. Has had a wind operation. Because of injuries, his decent third in a much shorter race last month was his first run over fences for 16 months, which is not ideal preparation. Nicely weighted on the pick of his form, including a defeat of Blaklion at Cheltenham two years ago.
Gas Line Boy (12, 10st 11lb)
Jumped the last with the leaders last year but had nothing left and tired into fifth, having taken a shoulder-barge from the runner-up at the second-last. Fell at the first in 2015 but usually does well over these fences, having won here in December. Has held his form so well that he is now rated higher than ever, 4lb higher than for last year’s race. Another respectable showing is likely.
The Dutchman (8, 10st 11lb)
Career best in January when running away with the Peter Marsh, pulling 13 lengths clear of Captain Redbeard. Was fired up the ratings to a mark 9lb higher than he’s ever been and may struggle to compete until he drops back down. He was carrying less weight that day than four other finishers of moderate talent, whereas here he will mix with Festival winners on a similar weight. Stopped quickly and was found to have bled from the nose when pulled up at Haydock in February.
Pleasant Company (10, 10st 11lb)
Given every chance last year by a masterful Ruby Walsh ride, creeping smoothly into contention on the second circuit before getting tired from the third-last and finishing ninth. Jumped soundly but stumbled and nearly unseated on landing over second Valentine’s, which can’t have helped. Only 1lb lower, despite modest efforts on both starts this season, and won’t have Walsh’s help.
Ucello Conti (10, 10st 10lb)
This plodder must be one of the few horses to spend three years in Gordon Elliott’s yard without winning. Often runs well, however, and has twice been placed in the Thyestes and also in Leopardstown’s Paddy Power Chase. Was a distant sixth in this race two years ago after notable mistakes. Went well last year until a rival jumped across him at Becher’s, causing his rider to fall off. Generally a sound jumper but will surely find something too quick for him on the run-in, even if his stamina holds up.
Saint Are (12, 10st 10lb)
Fine record at Aintree in April stretches back to 2011, when he won a Grade One novice hurdle. Won a handicap chase the next year and has since been second and third in the National, from four attempts. Soft ground is no use, as he showed when pulled up in 2016. Gets to run off the same rating as when third last year but we can’t be sure he retains his ability aged 12. He’s had just two runs this season and predictably failed to cope with soggy ground both times. Stable has been quiet for a month or two.
Raz De Maree (13, 10st 9lb)
Stormed clear in the Welsh Grand National and would have done the same the previous season if he hadn’t bumped into a future Gold Cup winner in Native River. Is also a winner of the Munster National and two Cork Nationals, giving him an excellent record in big-field marathons. Gone up another 6lb to match the highest rating he’s ever had and Chepstow form does not always translate well to Aintree. He’s a hold-up horse who will therefore need luck, which he didn’t get last year, when he unseated his jockey while dodging a faller. Would be the oldest winner for 95 years but clearly is not in decline. Very dangerous if able to get into contention by the third-last.
I Just Know (8, 10st 8lb)
Entered the reckoning with an authoritative success in the North Yorkshire Grand National, when he made all the running. Went up a stone in the weights, which is a lot for beating five finishers who have done little for the form. That might have been his big day, in a race the trainer was winning for the third year in a row, at a course where this horse is unbeaten. But he copes well with a stamina test and could have more to offer.
Virgilio (9, 10st 8lb)
Has a good record round Aintree’s Mildmay course, which may not translate to the much bigger National course and fences. Disappointing when eighth there in November and had a wind operation the next month. Unraced since mid-December, an unorthodox National preparation. Likes a dry-ish surface, so could do without much rain. Fairly weighted and could get involved if everything falls right but more likely to be seeking softer targets.
Baie Des Iles (7, 10st 8lb)
Tough, staying mare who is still young enough to have her best days ahead of her, being younger than any National winner since 1940. Never got into it when sixth in the 2016 Irish National and could only find the one pace when fifth in the Welsh National that year. Last seen running a fair third in Punchestown’s National Trial, giving weight to the first two, who made that form look good in the Irish National. She’s in big trouble if a turn of foot is required but, granted soft ground, she could get a lot of these in trouble by grinding along relentlessly in front.
Maggio (13, 10st 8lb)
Went into a lot of notebooks as a National type when bolting up by 12 lengths in a race on the Mildmay course here two years ago, but then had to miss last year’s National after a badly timed injury. Hard to say how much ability he retains, as he’s been raced so sparingly and often over hurdles but it’s a concern that he is now older than any National winner since 1923. Leap of faith required.
Pendra (10, 10st 8lb)
Stamina is the most obvious weak spot for this talented but frustrating type who appears not to be the most robust. Beaten over 100 lengths into 13th two years ago, eased down on the run-in on soft ground. Has only had two runs since, when a fine second in last year’s Kim Muir and when well beaten in the same race this year. Ground made the difference; it was good when he was second, very testing when he flopped. Hard to believe he’s a National winner in waiting.
Buywise (11, 10st 8lb)
Famously frustrating beast who has finished fast but too late on many a day, often after killing his chance with a mistake. Has been held back by metal pins in a back leg but the trainer says he’s moving better than ever and won a decent pot at Sandown in January. Offsetting that he ran so poorly when 12th in the 2016 National on soft ground, which should have suited, and after a much stronger season than this one.
Childrens List (8, 10st 8lb)
One of the least experienced in the field after just four runs over fences, of which his only win came in a 2016 beginners’ chase. Background and pedigree suggest his stamina might not stretch to a race like this and he was pulled up on his only attempt in a long-distance handicap chase. Doesn’t seem to like big fields. Rating looks a bit high. Hard to fancy.
Lord Windermere (12, 10st 7lb)
Ruined his chance last year by boiling over before the start. Did pretty well, then, to work his way into contention by the second-last but was a tired seventh in the end. Fell on his only outing since, when heavy ground did not suit. If the weather dries up and he behaves himself, it’s not beyond him to get involved off a rating that has dropped a stone and a half from his peak. He was a dual Festival winner but four years is a long time to make your supporters wait for another victory.
Captain Redbeard (9, 10st 7lb)
Game and consistent, he’s already had an excellent season, winning the Tommy Whittle in December and chasing home The Dutchman in the Peter Marsh back at Haydock. Warmed up with a first hurdles success for two years. Still on a beatable rating in the right contest but this might not be it. There’s a lot more strength in depth than he’s used to meeting and all his wins have come in single-figure fields. Not the most efficient jumper, mixing flamboyant leaps with the odd mistake. He didn’t have much left at the end of his last two races.
Houblon Des Obeaux (11, 10st 7lb)
Thoroughly experienced plodder after 38 starts over fences. By no means a prolific winner in recent seasons, though he managed to nick a weak race at Sandown in November. Got round in his own time to be 10th last year, beaten by 42 lengths. Could do better if the ground is soft. Blinkers may have helped when he was third at Ascot last month and could do so again. A distant third in the Welsh National last season and has since dropped 9lb, while his stable has finally hit form after a bleak winter, so a case can be made for him plugging on into fifth, maybe.
Bless The Wings (13, 10st 6lb)
Veteran of 46 races over fences showed his wellbeing by winning round Cheltenham’s cross-country course in December. Has twice been second in the Irish National and was beaten just a short-head in 2016 under Ruby Walsh. Now 6lb higher than when second at Fairyhouse last year. Jumping has never been flawless but a clear round could easily put him in the leading bunch on the run from the third-last. Doubtful he can be fastest from there. Could do with the ground drying up.
Milansbar (11, 10st 6lb)
Gave a mulish display when dropping himself out in the Welsh National and was then remarkably revived by the fitting of blinkers when an easy winner of Warwick’s Classic Chase. A change of jockey may also have helped. Believing he would miss the cut for this, connections raced him in two more marathons on heavy going in the past two months, including a fair second in the Midlands National. Will have to be remarkably robust to show his best form here at the end of such a taxing season.
Final Nudge (9, 10st 6lb)
Close second in the Badger Ales on his first run of the season but went up a few pounds and has not really shone in stronger races since. Travelled strongly in the Welsh National and Kim Muir before the limitations of his stamina appeared to be shown up in both.
Double Ross (12, 10st 6lb)
Was running a fair race just behind the leaders when his saddle slipped at the second Canal Turn two years ago, causing him to be pulled up. Now 7lb lower and capable of going well again, though his form this season has been patchy. Was giving lumps of weight to the first three when fourth at Chepstow in October and plugged on gamely to be fourth in the Kim Muir last month. Stamina must be in question, given he got tired and faded in the Hennessy for the last two years.
Road To Riches (11, 10st 5lb)
Career peaked with an extremely game effort to be third in an attritional Cheltenham Gold Cup three years ago, when quality rivals like Many Clouds, Silviniaco Conti and Carlingford Lough were a long way behind. Ran to a high level for another season after that and was second in the 2016 Irish Gold Cup but has been two stones below his best in the last year. Enthusiasm seems to be on the wane, despite various bits of headgear being tried. On a dangerously low rating if he ever does bounce back to something like his best.
Non-runners
Regal Encore, Walk In The Mill, Minella Rocco, Vicente, Beeves.
Prediction
1) Total Recall
2) Carlingford Lough
3) Tiger Roll
4) Milansbar
