Many Clouds
Jockey: L Aspell Trainer: O Sherwood Age: Nine Weight: 11st 10lb
Last year’s winner tries to be the first to win two Nationals since Red Rum in the 1970s. Maybe he’s up to it; he already seems an exceptional talent, having carried more weight (11st 9lb) to victory than any winner since “Rummie” and having also been the first horse to win both the Hennessy Gold Cup and the National. Unusually for a National winner he has continued to show a high level of form immediately afterwards, winning easily over Unioniste last time and running second to classy rivals in December and January. Another fine run seems on the cards, though he rather plodded for the last half-mile a year ago and may be vulnerable if something else is close to him over the last.
Chance: medium
Silviniaco Conti
Jockey: N Fehily Trainer: P Nicholls Age: 10 Weight: 11st 8lb
Tough sort holds a 50% record over fences (11/22) and has bagged seven Grade Ones, including two King Georges. Has never faced the National fences but is three times a winner at the Grand National meeting, suggesting three things: he can be relied on to show his ability at this late stage of the season; he loves a flat track; and he copes well with the kind of surface on offer here. Likes to race prominently, which will keep him out of trouble here but will also make this a severe test of his stamina.
Chance: medium
First Lieutenant
Jockey: BJ Cooper Trainer: MF Morris Age: 11 Weight: 11st 3lb
Seemed to take an instant dislike to this place last year, when jumping the first two fences very awkwardly. Got round in his own time to be beaten 95 lengths. It is not impossible that he may fare better this time (the 2009 National winner, Mon Mome, had been stuffed in the previous year’s race), especially since he ran his best race for ages when second in a Grade One at Christmas. But his losing run extends to three years, he has never won a handicap and he has never won a steeplechase against more than seven rivals.
Chance: low
Wonderful Charm
Jockey: S Twiston-Davies Trainer: P Nicholls Age: Eight Weight: 11st 3lb
Has long been well regarded at the stable of the champion trainer but has yet to really justify that. Wins over fences have come against a maximum of four rivals and he’s been well beaten every time he’s tackled a major contest. Trailed Silviniaco Conti by 32 lengths in the King George last season but carries just 5lb less than him here. Pulled up in last year’s Bet365 Gold Cup. Has made significant jumping errors in some races and his stamina for this test seems doubtful.
Chance: low
Ballynagour
Jockey: T Scudamore Trainer: D Pipe Age: 10 Weight: 11st 2lb
Impressive winner at the Cheltenham Festival in 2014 but has been high in the weights ever since and his only subsequent win was a hurdles race in France. Has never won a race at three miles or further, so his stamina is in question, even though he ran well in a three-mile Grade One here a year ago. Form has been dire for most of this winter but better when seventh at the Festival and seems to peak in the spring.
Chance: low
Gilgamboa
Jockey: R Power Trainer: E Bolger Age: Eight Weight: 11st 1lb
Still sailing along below many a radar despite a career record of six wins from 14 starts. Been restricted to three handicap starts so far, winning two over hurdles, including a very tough one in 2014, and running fourth under top weight over fences at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting. Can’t quite cut it at the highest level but talented and robust enough to win a race like this under a fair weight, like the one he has been given here. Stamina is the issue, as three miles looks his outer limit on the available evidence but there is more to come from this eight-year-old.
Chance: medium
On His Own
Jockey: PW Mullins Trainer: WP Mullins Age: 12 Weight: 11st 1lb
Was a faller in consecutive Grand Nationals, going well in 2012 when coming down at second Becher’s and looking beaten before departing three fences later the next year. Has also been a disappointing but staying-on sixth in the shorter Becher Chase over these fences. Career peaked in March 2014 when he was pipped in the Gold Cup but has struggled to get close to that level in recent starts. His only success in the past two years was in a small-field Grade Three at Cork and he was left way behind in the latest Gold Cup. But he remains higher in the weights than for any of his previous attempts around here, making him hard to fancy.
Chance: low
The Druids Nephew
Jockey: D O’Regan Trainer: N Mulholland Age: Nine Weight: 11st 0lb
Appeared on his way to winning last year’s National when slipping and falling five-out, though that was too far from home to be sure his stamina would have lasted. This has been the only target since then, so modest form through the winter is not worrying. He is a classy animal, a Cheltenham Festival winner from last year, with a fine trainer, and it would be no surprise to see him go very well again. But he’s 9lb higher in the weights than last year and this may be a hotter contest.
Chance: high
Triolo D’Alene
Jockey: J McGrath Trainer: N Henderson Age: Nine Weight: 11st 0lb
Won a shorter race over these fences three years ago and continued to run well that year, winning the Hennessy. Mostly off the boil in a handful of runs since then, including when pulled up in the 2014 National after a bad mistake at the 21st. Only 2lb lower now, partly because he won at Kempton in January but he beat a single rival, aged 13, that day. Trailed Silviniaco Conti by 54 lengths at Ascot when last seen.
Chance: low
Rocky Creek
Jockey: A Thornton Trainer: P Nicholls Age: 10 Weight: 10st 13lb
Completed the course in the past two Nationals but well beaten both times, seeming not to stay the full distance on either occasion. Was a fair fifth in 2014, a disappointing 17th last year and appeared not to relish these fences in a shorter race here in December. Has a couple of excellent bits of form to his name but has been underperforming for a full year now and neither tongue tie nor blinkers made a difference last time.
Chance: low
Sir Des Champs
Jockey: N Carberry (changed from injured R Walsh) Trainer: WP Mullins Age: 10 Weight: 10st 13lb
Second in the Gold Cup of 2013 and won the Punchestown Gold Cup the following month, both runs that put him in the highest class. Had won at the previous two Cheltenham Festivals. Tendon injury early in 2014 seems to have blighted his career, though he managed a comeback win in a small race at Thurles in November. Well beaten in two Grade Ones since then, though both were run on heavy going and it remains possible that he can do better on this drier surface. Nicely weighted if the ability is still there.
Chance: high
Holywell
Jockey: R McLernon Trainer: J O’Neill Age: Nine Weight: 10st 12lb
Seems a spring horse, having run with great credit at the last four Cheltenham Festivals and also three times at the Grand National meeting. Has never tackled these fences and rather smaller than your typical National type but seems pleasingly tough. Position in the weights is perfectly fair if he copes with the course and one for any shortlist.
Chance: high
Shutthefrontdoor
Jockey: B Geraghty Trainer: J O’Neill Age: Nine Weight: 10st 11lb
Irish National winner of 2014, his stamina seemed to give way when fifth in this race last year. Possibly his preparation was partly to blame, as he raced freely on his first start for five months. He won’t be as fresh this time and that may help him sustain his effort, from a 1lb lower mark. Abscess in his foot was responsible for poor showing last month. Infrequent appearances in recent years make him harder to like.
Chance: medium
Soll
Jockey: C O’Farrell Trainer: D Pipe Age: 11 Weight: 10st 11lb
Twice beaten around 40 lengths in this race, when seventh in 2013 and ninth last year. Stamina appeared to be the issue both times, as he travelled well for a long way. He also has a history of bursting blood vessels and connections must hope it doesn’t happen again. Has hit new heights since joining new stable about 15 months ago, winning three of last seven and showing admirable toughness on occasion. Is 13lb higher in the weights than last year and hard to believe he can overcome that to win, though likely to run well again to a point.
Chance: low
Buywise
Jockey: P Moloney Trainer: E Williams Age: Nine Weight: 10st 10lb
One of the most frustrating horses in the game, bursting with talent but somehow unable to win anything apart from novice hurdles in the last two years. Hold-up tactics and jumping errors get in his way, with the result that he has finished strongly but too late in several major handicaps at Cheltenham. Nicely placed in the weights but hard to see him getting away with his usual sloppy fencing around here and his stamina is also in doubt. Seemed to have had enough at the end of a three-mile race in January, whereas this is four and a quarter.
Chance: low
Boston Bob
Jockey: P Townend Trainer: WP Mullins Age: 11 Weight: 10st 10lb
The winner of three Grade Ones over fences, although none of those looks especially strong in retrospect. Soundly beaten in the very best races but his rating remained artificially high until he was also stuffed in a couple of handicaps this season. Now seems on a fairer mark and won a decent trial race at Fairyhouse last time. Stamina could be a weak point, despite two successes at around three miles.
Chance: low
Aachen
Jockey: H Brooke Trainer: V Williams Age: 12 Weight: 10st 10lb
Veteran has been better than ever this season, making all to win at Wincanton and Cheltenham in December. That run came to an end when collared by Soll at Sandown in January and he has fared much less well in two runs since, on drier ground, being beaten more than 40 lengths each time. Hard to believe he can win this from a career-high mark at the end of a tough season.
Chance: low
Morning Assembly
Jockey: D Russell Trainer: PA Fahy Age: Nine Weight: 10st 9lb
Not far off top class in 2014, when third to O’Faolains Boy in the RSA at Cheltenham, but missed almost two years through injury. Three creditable runs since his comeback in January, including finishing fourth in a Festival handicap last month, when a mistake three-out may have come at just the wrong time. Seems a strong stayer, fairly treated on his best form and a contender.
Chance: medium
Double Ross
Jockey: R Hatch Trainer: N Twiston-Davies Age: 10 Weight: 10st 9lb
Like a few from his stable over the years, had an excellent novice season over fences but struggled thereafter. Won two Cheltenham handicaps in 2012/13 and was a close third in a Grade One at the 2013 Festival but fell short of top class in subsequent runs while being too high in the weights to win a handicap. Has never won beyond about two and a half miles, so the extra two miles here is a real concern. Several bits of form, including his last two outings, seem to make it clear that he doesn’t quite last three miles, never mind four, so he doesn’t appeal, even from a Grand National-winning stable in great form just now.
Chance: low
Goonyella
Jockey: JJ Burke Trainer: JTR Dreaper Age: Nine Weight: 10st 8lb
Stayed on dourly to be second in the Scottish National last year, so must be a contender here from just a 3lb higher rating. Had won the Midlands National on his previous start, so stamina is clearly his long suit. Has had a couple of abortive attempts on these fences in the Becher Chase but that race is held in December, whereas this one seems to be at his best in the spring. Fine effort to be second to a stablemate under a big weight at Naas last month and likely to get involved if he can get the hang of these fences at last.
Chance: high
Ucello Conti
Jockey: D Jacob Trainer: G Elliott Age: Eight Weight: 10st 8lb
Half-brother to Silviniaco Conti is a fascinating, unexposed contender who has done most of his racing in France. Joined a top Irish trainer for this season and, in his last two runs, has been placed in two of Ireland’s best handicap chases. Those efforts were the more impressive in light of the extravagantly wide course charted both times by Jacques Ricou, the jockey who knew him best in France but is likely to be replaced for this race. He looks a classy stayer with more to give.
Chance: high
Unioniste
Jockey: N Scholfield Trainer: P Nicholls Age: Eight Weight: 10st 8lb
Twice a winner around Aintree’s conventional course but hasn’t yet taken to the National circuit, falling at the fifth last year and trailing home in the Becher Chase after a bad mistake. Nicely weighted on the best of his form, 8lb below the rating he had last year, and last three runs suggest he’s still good enough to run well here with a bit of luck. Seems to have been around forever but still only eight, so quite an achievement to have won seven times over fences. Well held by Many Clouds at Kelso last time but meets that rival on 12lb better terms, which ought to make all the difference.
Chance: medium
Le Reve
Jockey: H Skelton Trainer: L Wadham Age: Eight Weight: 10st 8lb
Likeable sort who can win a good prize in the right conditions but this doesn’t look like his bag, mainly because the bends at Aintree turn left. For whatever reason, Le Reve likes to turn right, which is why all six of his wins have been at right-handed circuits like Sandown and Kempton. His form going left (Haydock, Newbury, Doncaster) isn’t on the same level. Plus his stamina gave way alarmingly at the end of a three-mile race last time at Kempton.
Chance: low
Gallant Oscar
Jockey: M Walsh Trainer: AJ Martin Age: 10 Weight: 10st 8lb
Hasn’t won a major prize yet but clearly has talent and suspicion is that there’s more to come, even though he’s 10 now. Was a staying-on third in a hot handicap at the 2015 Festival, won by The Druids Nephew, and bolted up at Punchestown soon after. Has had a quiet season so far but it has probably been building to this peak, so no surprise to see him run a big race. Usually held up, so will need some luck in weaving through the pack.
Chance: medium
Onenightinvienna
Jockey: T O’Brien Trainer: P Hobbs Age: Seven Weight: 10st 8lb
Terribly inexperienced as a novice chaser with just four runs over fences behind him. Only success over fences came at the expense of four other finishers who are now a collective 0/17 in chases. A good jumper so far and looks a stayer, though he got tired at the end of a quality three-mile race last time. Needs to take an enormous step forward. Younger than any National winner since 1940.
Chance: low
The Last Samuri
Jockey: D Bass Trainer: K Bailey Age: Eight Weight: 10st 8lb
Young, improving and with an impressive strike rate of five from eight over fences, this chestnut demands to be taken seriously. From a stable that has already won a National (albeit back in 1990), he won a competitive race at Kempton’s Christmas meeting and hacked up in his prep race at Doncaster last month. His 10-length defeat of The Druids Nephew that day should probably not be taken literally but it could not have been more encouraging. Still, this is a much greater test than anything he has ever faced.
Chance: high
Kruzhlinin
Jockey: R Johnson Trainer: P Hobbs Age: Nine Weight: 10st 7lb
Never got into the race when a distant 10th two years ago but was only a seven-year-old and can probably also be forgiven his modest effort at the Cheltenham Festival last month, since he seems not to cope well with that track. Change of stable helped him recover his best form when scoring at Kempton in January, beating Le Reve despite jumping left throughout. Should have more to offer with this season’s champion jockey aboard, though new stable may be slightly going off the boil. He is vulnerable to the occasional mistake.
Chance: medium
Rule The World
Jockey: D Mullins Trainer: MF Morris Age: Nine Weight: 10st 7lb
Yet to win over fences after 13 attempts but no doubt that he has the ability to land a good race. He was second in last year’s Irish National and third in the Kerry National, giving plenty of weight to the front two. Between those efforts, he somehow slipped up on the run to the last in the Galway Plate when seeming to have every chance. Last two efforts have not been as good but midwinter ground might not be his thing. Worth a second look.
Chance: medium
Just A Par
Jockey: S Bowen Trainer: P Nicholls Age: Nine Weight: 10st 6lb
Produced an extraordinary finish to win the Bet365 Gold Cup last year, beating Vics Canvas and Le Reve, seeming to relish the marathon distance. Fairly handicapped on 7lb higher now and easy to imagine a similar effort carrying him into the argument, although horses that need extreme hold-up tactics can get into trouble in Grand Nationals. First two (weak) runs this season came at a time when the stable was faring poorly. Back to form last month with a second place at Exeter, giving a stone to the winner and without usual blinkers.
Chance: medium
Katenko
Jockey: W Kennedy Trainer: V Williams Age: 10 Weight: 10st 6lb
Looked really classy in his first season since arriving from France but hasn’t been the same since falling in the 2013 Hennessy and no real sign of encouragement for at least two years now. This course has sometimes sparked a revival in some horses and he has at least dropped back to his last winning rating but a substantial reason for hope is lacking.
Chance: low
Vics Canvas
Jockey: R Dunne Trainer: DA McLoughlin Age: 13 Weight: 10st 6lb
Sole win over fences so far was in the Cork Grand National of 2014 but there have been other impressive efforts. He was third in a quality Christmas handicap at Leopardstown that season and second to Just A Par at Sandown last April. Efforts this season have been mixed but his fifth in the Becher Chase here in December was another fine run from a slightly higher rating than he has here. Aged 13, which would make him the oldest National winner since 1923, but lightly raced for his age and could get involved.
Chance: low
Black Thunder
Jockey: S Waley-Cohen Trainer: P Nicholls Age: Nine Weight: 10st 6lb
Four wins over fences have come against a maximum of five rivals, suggesting he may not relish the experience of racing against 39 others. Has generally struggled since leaving novice company and even a drop in the weights didn’t help him at Sandown last time. Bought at auction by a syndicate including Robert Waley-Cohen, the father of the jockey, on Thursday.
Chance: low
Ballycasey
Jockey: K Walsh Trainer: WP Mullins Age: Nine Weight: 10st 6lb
Chance in last year’s race was not obvious, even though he was ridden by Ruby Walsh. In the end his credentials went untested, as he was brought down at the first Canal Turn. It looks as though a return here has been the only plan since then, in which case it may be unwise to fret over a couple of his poorer efforts this winter. He has still not won at three miles or further, so his stamina is a major concern.
Chance: low
Hadrian’s Approach
Jockey: N de Boinville Trainer: N Henderson Age: Nine Weight: 10st 6lb
Proved he’s the right type for this by landing the Bet365 Gold Cup in 2014. Just three runs since but there was promise in his midfield effort at Kempton last time, his first outing for more than a year. Is only 1lb higher than for his Sandown success and jockey bookings suggest he is the better hope of his trainer, Nicky Henderson, who also runs Triolo D’Alene. Leap of faith required but not out of this.
Chance: medium
Vieux Lion Rouge
Jockey: J Reveley Trainer: D Pipe Age: Seven Weight: 10st 5lb
Only seven and a novice chaser who jumped fences for the first time in May, making him inexperienced for a test like this. Won a handicap at Haydock in November and fairly weighted on the strength of that. Cheltenham Festival effort last time was more of a concern; either his stamina failed him or he lacked the resolution for a battle. Younger than any National winner since 1940.
Chance: low
Pendra
Jockey: A Coleman Trainer: C Longsdon Age: Eight Weight: 10st 8lb
Talented and has almost always started his seasons well, without being able to sustain his form this far into the year. Career peak with Ascot win on his reappearance but faded into fifth when trying to follow up there in December. Other efforts have also suggested he lacks the necessary stamina for this. Nicely weighted and surely has other handicaps in him but this does not seem an ideal opportunity.
Chance: medium
Saint Are
Jockey: P Brennan Trainer: T George Age: 10 Weight: 10st 5lb
Second in last year’s race, beaten less than two lengths, and often finds his best form on a drying surface at this time of year. Only 3lb higher this time and, as was also the case last year, comes here off the back of a handicap success. Likely to go well again from a handy spot at the bottom of the weights.
Chance: high
Home Farm
Jockey: AE Lynch Trainer: H De Bromhead Age: Nine Weight: 10st 4lb
Winless since first run for this trainer in November 2014 in what now looks a weak Listed chase. Spent most of last season being shown up in Grade One races, while this season consists so far of a couple of well-beaten efforts over hurdles. Rating has at least dropped but even his best form does not entitle him to be in the shake-up here.
Chance: low
The Romford Pele
Jockey: T Whelan Trainer: R Curtis Age: Nine Weight: 10st 4lb
Dangerous to underestimate this one, who seems on the way back after a period in the wilderness, much like his stable. Was a comfortable winner of the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter in 2014, making him a National type, and only 6lb higher now than he was that day. This season has been a write-off over fences but last two efforts over hurdles have been encouraging. If he can do something similar over these fences, he’ll have a say in this, although his jumping can let him down.
Chance: high
