The latest grains cropping forecast from Rabobank predicts the current winter crop will hit just under 53 million tonnes, just slightly off 2020's highs.
The large crop would be 5 per cent less than last year but more than 25 per cent above the five-year average.
Western Australia though is predicted to achieve a record harvest with an 18 per cent increase on the previous year.
Queensland will also increase 18 per cent on last year's crops, but New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia will all be down.
Why isn't it as big as last year?
NSW production is forecast to drop 14 per cent with dry areas in the Riverina and north-west, and waterlogging in the central west.
Victoria is forecast to fall 24 per cent with dry conditions in the western cropping region and the Mallee.
Canola is the stand-out crop this year, up 10 per cent from 2020 and 48 per cent above the five-year average.
Cheryl Kalisch Grodon from Rabobank said it was a still a "stellar year" but the industry was coming off a "really high base" from the 2020 winter cropping season.
The report shows that while production is down, it could be record year in terms of value for the industry.
"Globally, prices of wheat are remaining high and canola as well has record pricing," Ms Kalisch Grodon said.
"Even our barley prices are looking good even though we don't have China in the market."
Two bumper crops to finish off
The latest crop forecast comes as farming group GrainGrowers released the State of the Grains Industry Report which looked at the last five years for the industry.
The report said that compared to the previous five-year period the area planted to crop and production was down, but the value of the sector had continued to grow.
The area sown to crop was down 6 per cent on average, to 21 million hectares planted per year, because of multiple drought years in the reporting period.
Production fell 8 per cent to an average of 40 million tonnes per year.
Despite the falls in production, the value of the industry still grew steadily to average $13 billion in gross value, an increase of 1 per cent on the previous five-year period.
