
SINCE the pandemic began, the Hunter Region has slipped its way past some very close "near misses" when it comes to coronavirus numbers.
But with over 80 confirmed cases announced yesterday, this present cluster of COVID cases is looking more and more like the start of a worryingly embedded outbreak.
Yes, the statewide number of 941 new cases yesterday is well down on the peak in the first week of September.
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Even so, the Victorian spike in cases to 1438 yesterday - up 40 per cent in a day - confirms an already unarguable truth: that the Delta variant is highly contagious.
What's more, the almost certain link between last Saturday's AFL grand final gatherings and the subsequent explosion of Victorian positives provides a "real world" preview of what could be in store in the coming months, once the lockdowns are eased or ended.
Victoria has had more practice than any other Australian state in managing COVID.
So if one day of socialising - even if a substantial portion of it was in breach of the rules - can have such an immediate impact, what do we expect will happen when looser guidelines allow people to freely mingle, and not just for a single day?
Admittedly, the major relaxation of restrictions will only come once vaccination rates hit 80 per cent.
But COVID data from around the world shows that fully vaccinated people are quite capable of carrying and transmitting the Delta variant.
Even Australia's target of 80 per cent vaccinated leaves 20 per cent of the population - five million Australians - vulnerable and exposed on the road to "new normal".
Also, the federal government plans to dramatically scale back its COVID assistance once the required vaccination rates are reached in affected states - a policy it openly admits is aimed to stop further lockdowns if cases explode upon reopening.
Canberra is doing this knowing the loss of COVID disaster payments will discourage people from testing, for fear they will lose their income, or even their job.
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The federal government may well want to give the business community what "certainty" it can around reopening, but the ultimate decisions will be determined by the virus.
Australia has escaped the worst of COVID.
Negating that good fortune by thinking 80 per cent vaccination allows us to "let it rip" with the virus would be a national betrayal.
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