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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Andrew Sparrow

May suggests EU will only get part of promised £39bn from UK if there's no Brexit deal - as it happened

Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn pictured at PMQs
Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn at PMQs Photograph: Sky News

Afternoon summary

  • Theresa May has failed to challenge the position taken by the EU on the Irish border, allowing it to become “a decisive factor” in the Brexit negotiations, according to the hard Brexit European Research Group, which has been discussing whether to attempt to unseat the prime minister. As Dan Sabbagh and Lisa O’Carroll report, a position paper on the future of the Irish border, presented by David Davis and a string of Tories hostile to May’s Chequers plan, concedes that the UK will have to sign up to “equivalence of UK and EU regulations” for food products and standards. But it claims it will be possible to do that by the UK and EU maintaining a system of customs checks away from the border. The paper says: “Repetitive trade is well suited to established technical solutions and simplified customs procedures already available.” Here is Lisa’s analysis of the paper.
  • Downing Street has rejected claims by Russian president Vladimir Putin that there is “nothing criminal” about the prime suspects in the Salisbury nerve agent attack.
  • Airport baggage checks “weren’t probably as good as they might be” and contributed to two Russian nationals being able to bring novichok into the UK, security minister Ben Wallace has suggested. Speaking in a Commons debate on the Salisbury novichok poisonings, he said:

When a hostile state is determined to try and use its full resources to penetrate another state, the challenge is much greater. The logistical support of that state in assisting its agents is significant and that means for example that these two individuals travelled on a genuine Russian passport, making it harder to spot, that there was clearly some form of attempt to create a legend to make sure that they circumvented obviously our checks and, only in a speculative way, but no doubt at the other end of that aeroplane journey there was some, I should think the baggage checks weren’t probably as good as they might be.

This is from Labour’s Stella Creasy.

This is from the SNP’s Stewart McDonald.

This is from the Conservative Tom Tugendhat.

And this is from Welby.

That’s all from me for today.

Thanks for the comments.

Updated

Politics Live readers probably don’t look at the Daily Mail much. But, if they did, they would see that since Paul Dacre was replaced recently as editor by Geordie Greig, there has been a notable shift in its coverage of Brexit.

Politico Europe’s Jack Blanchard summed it up well in his morning briefing.

Just check out these headlines on the main politics pages of the new, post-Dacre Daily Mail … Headline 1: “Brexiteer disarray as they shelve Chequers Plan B” … Headline 2: “How No Deal could put your holiday to Europe at risk” …. Headline 3: “We may have to stop building cars here, warns Jaguar boss” … Headline 4 (tiny, buried at the bottom of the spread): “Post-Brexit boost for farmers.” How David Cameron would have killed for this sort of coverage back in 2016.

And this is from the Economist’s political editor, Adrian Wooldridge.

Voters would narrowly back staying in EU in second referendum, poll suggests

We have some new Guardian/ICM polling out today. Mostly it is about Brexit. There is probably just about enough material here to merit a People’s Vote press release, but in truth the main takeaway is that Brexit opinion does not seem to have shifted much in recent weeks even though the talks deadline is looming and speculation about the UK leaving without a deal has intensified.

Second referendum

We asked people, as we have done before, how they would vote if there was another EU referendum tomorrow.

  • Voters would narrowly back staying in the EU if another remain/leave referendum were held tomorrow, the poll suggests. On the basis of these results, remain would win by 52% to 48%. Support for remain has gone up since we last asked this question in April, but only slightly. Five months ago it was 45% for remain and 44% for leave, with the rest don’t knows or won’t says. Now it is 46% for remain and 42% for leave.
Polling on how people would vote in another EU referendum.
Polling on how people would vote in another EU referendum.

Here is ICM’s Alex Turk on these findings.

We asked this question in both January and April this year – both times finding the slimmest of leads for remain over leave. Yet at the third time of asking, we have seen a slightly bigger shift, with remain creeping up one percentage point to 46% and leave slipping down two percentage points to 42% from April.

Let’s not get over-excited about these figures – these are still small shifts in numbers, and the result is still considered well within the margin of error. Nevertheless, this is the largest lead for remain we’ve seen across the three times we’ve asked the question this year. And, when excluding those who prefer not to say, don’t know and wouldn’t vote, the results of this question do catch the eye. If an exact repeat of the 2016 referendum were to be held tomorrow, this poll predicts an exact reversal of 2016’s result – with the country split 52% to 48%, but this time in favour of remain.

Impact of Brexit

We also asked what impact people think Brexit will have on the British economy, their personal finances and life in Britain generally, using a question we have asked repeatedly over the last year and a half.

  • Voters overall continue to think that Brexit will have a negative impact on Britain, the poll suggests, although they are more pessimistic about its impact on the economy (positive impact 30%, negative 44%, hence -14 net) and on their personal finances (positive 14%, negative 33%, hence -19 net) than they are about its impact on life in Britain generally (31% positive, 37% negative, hence -6 net.)

Here are charts with the figures. The bars measure the net result for each month, and for the figures you need to read the scale across the top. (Note: in each case the difference from May is only one percentage point, but it does not look like that because the scale is different in each chart.)

Polling on impact of Brexit on the British economy
Polling on impact of Brexit on the British economy

Polling on impact of Brexit on the British economy

Polling on impact of Brexit on respondents' own personal finances
Polling on impact of Brexit on respondents’ own personal finances
Polling on impact of Brexit on life in Britain generally
Polling on impact of Brexit on life in Britain generally

Here is Turk on these results.

Brexiteers may take solace from the fact that there are no huge negative shifts at the overall level. But scratch the surface, and there looks like there might be something interesting happening among those who voted leave in 2016. Leavers are still more positive than negative about the aspects of Brexit we ask about, but the gap between those who are positive and negative about the impact of Brexit on the way of lifer in Britain today in general has narrowed by 8 percentage points. Even more strikingly, the equivalent gap has narrowed by 10 percentage points when it comes to the impact on the economy.

So while the country remains strongly polarised along the same lines as the 2016 referendum, there are small signs that leavers’ initial optimism maybe, just maybe, might be fading at the margins.

Voting intention

And, finally, here are the voting intention figures.

  • The Conservatives have opened up a three-point lead over Labour, the poll suggests. Since our last poll two weeks ago, the Conservatives are up two points, and Labour down one.
Voting intention
Voting intention

The poll tables will go up later on the ICM website. When they do, I will post an update here with the link.

UPDATE: Here are the tables (pdf).

ICM Unlimited interviewed a representative online sample of 2,051 adults aged 18+, between 7 and 9 September 2018. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

Updated

And this is from Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform.

This is from my colleague Jennifer Rankin.

Mark Drakeford, the frontrunner in the contest to replace Carwyn Jones as Welsh Labour leader when he steps down later this year, has said that he would back a second referendum on Brexit if the Commons were to vote down the Brexit deal and a general election (his preference) were not called. This is the official TUC position, and effectively the unofficial Labour leadership position, but it differs from the stance taken by Jones, who has opposed a second referendum.

ERG Irish border plan backed by DUP, but opposed by Sinn Fein, the CBI and No 10

Here is a round-up of reaction to the ERG Brexit plan for the Irish border.

In favour

From the DUP deputy leader Nigel Dodds

The paper published by the European Research Group today is a positive and timely development. The paper makes clear that, in the event of a free trade deal being negotiated with the EU, there are sensible practical measures which can ensure there will be no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic.

It therefore accurately reflects the fact that the border issue is no impediment to the negotiation by the UK of a comprehensive trade deal with the EU. This a position we have consistently articulated.

Nigel Dodds, the DUP deputy leader
Nigel Dodds, the DUP deputy leader Photograph: Paul Davey / Barcroft Images

Unconvinced

From a Downing Street spokesman

We have been working on the issue of the Northern Irish border for two years and we have looked at a significant number of potential solutions. We believe the plan put forward by Chequers is the only credible and negotiable solution.

Against

From Josh Hardie, deputy director general of the CBI

Local firms will welcome recognition of the importance of the Irish Border issue and the attempts to provide solutions. But this is a disappointing effort – the proposals are too superficial to be of use in practice. If this is the ERGs road to Brexit, the final destination is disastrous for jobs and prosperity.

There is no solution to agreeing a backstop, without which the negotiations will not move forward and the much-needed transition will become a cliff edge.

The paper is also based on the wrong premise - that a Canada-style deal is desirable. UK businesses have been abundantly clear that such a relationship is an ocean away from what is needed to protect prosperity.

From Sinn Fein MP Chris Hazzard, in a statement put out by Sinn Fein

These proposals show again that the Tories do not care about Ireland or the effects that any Brexit deal will have on the Irish people. They are not designed to offer a solution but result from the civil war raging internally within the British Conservative party.

These proposals are a rehash of the unacceptable and already rejected and failed notion that a technological border can be put imposed post Brexit. They are pure fantasy with no attempt to set out how they can actually be achieved.

From the Labour MP David Lammy, in a statement put out by the anti-Brexit Best for Britain campaign

No-one asked for the ERG’s report, which offers no serious plan for Brexit. As this group of hardliners has no mandate, no parliamentary and no public majority, it should be met with a collective shrug of the shoulders.

From the People’s Vote campaign, which is calling for a referendum on the final Brexit deal

The half-baked proposals made today by the European Research Group show that two years on from the referendum, Brexit hardliners are still in denial about the real threat Brexit poses to Northern Ireland

It is simply not good enough, as Owen Paterson stated today, to “use imagination” to solve the problems faced by businesses and communities living on each side of the border.

The ERG hardliners do not care about Northern Ireland. They have suggested border checks for people and goods, threatened the integrity of the UK, attacked the Good Friday agreement, and downplayed the border issue altogether.

Today’s proposals – aside from the fact that they would be rejected by the EU on day one – are not a credible alternative to the current peace and stability in Northern Ireland that is underpinned by membership of the EU.

The proposals are the latest failure of the ERG to articulate their ideological fantasy for a hard Brexit. They should stick to shouting from the side lines, or face up to reality, and allow the country to judge their actions, through a People’s Vote on the final Brexit deal.

I’ll be wrapping up the blog around 5ish. But we plan to keep comments open until about 6pm.

Archbishop of Canterbury says rollout of universal credit should be halted

Justin Welby, the archbishop of Canterbury (and thus head of the Church of England), was speaking to the TUC this morning and what he said about universal credit echoed what Jeremy Corbyn told MPs at PMQs. Welby said;

It was supposed to make it simpler and more efficient. It has not done that. It has left too many people worse off, putting them at risk of hunger, debt, rent arrears and food banks.

When universal credit comes into a local area the number of people going to food banks goes up. What is clear is if they cannot get it right they need to stop rolling it out.

Here is our story about Welby’s speech.

And here is the full text of his speech.

Number 10 has responded to Vladimir Putin’s declaration that the Salisbury poisoning suspects were “civilians” who had nothing do with the country’s military. Speaking to journalists after PMQs, the prime minister’s spokesman repeated the accusation that the two men were GRU agents and accused Russia of continuing to respond with “obfuscation and lies” when asked by the UK to account for what happened in the Wiltshire city in March. The spokesman said:

The prime minister set out the position very clearly last week. The police and CPS have identified these men as the prime suspects of the attack in Salisbury.

These men are officers of the Russian military intelligence, the GRU who used a devastating toxic, illegal chemical weapon on the streets of our country. The government has exposed the role of the GRU, its operatives and its methods. This position is supported by our international allies.

We have repeatedly asked Russia to account for what happened in Salisbury in March. They have replied with obfuscation and lies. I have seen nothing to suggest that has changed.

If you want to read the ERG report on Brexit and the Irish border, the full text is available here.

PMQs - Verdict from the Twitter commentariat

A little later than usual, here is a round-up of what political journalists and commentators are saying about PMQs.

Corbyn seems to have made a better impression than May, but that view is not universal. There is, though, a general consensus that they were good exchanges.

From the Daily Mirror’s Jason Beattie

From the New Statesman’s Anoosh Chakelian

From ITV’s Paul Brand

From the Sun’s Harry Cole

From the Guardian’s Dan Sabbagh

From the Birmingham Post’s Jonathan Walker

From the Independent’s Rob Merrick

From the Daily Mirror’s Kevin Maguire

From the Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges

I follow PMQs from the TV feed, but it is worth pointing out that colleagues who watched the exchanges from the press gallery found the shouting even worse than usual.

From the Yorkshire Post’s Arj Singh

From Business Insider’s Adam Bienkov

May suggests EU will only get part of promised £39bn from UK if there's no Brexit deal

In answer to a question from a Conservative MP, Theresa May effectively told MPs that, if the UK leaves the EU without a deal, the EU won’t get the £39bn “divorce payment” agreed in the joint report published by both sides in December.

Some Tory Brexiters say that, if there is no agreement, the UK should leave without paying a penny. May is not supporting this line, and she did not say that today. Like Philip Hammond, who addressed this point in evidence to peers yesterday, she accepts that the UK has some legal obligations to the EU and that it would have to pay up regardless of whether or not there is a deal.

But quite what those legal obligations would be remains unclear. Today, in response to the question from Chris Philp, May implied that the £39bn was a generous offer - she suggested the UK was paying more than it had to, in the interests of good will - and she implied that, without a deal, the UK would certainly not be getting the full amount.

She told Philp:

We are very clear that we need to have a link between the future relationship and the withdrawal agreement.

But we are a country that honours our obligations. We believe in the rule of law. And therefore we believe in abiding by our legal obligations.

However, [Philp] is right, that the specific offer was made in our desire to reach a deal with the European Union. And on the basis, as the EU themselves have said, that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, without a deal the position changes.

Interestingly, when Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, met the Commons Brexit committee in Brussels last, he refused to accept that the amount of money that would be handed over by the UK under terms of the December deal was up to £39bn. That was a UK government figure, he said. According to the transcript subsequently released, he told the MPs:

I never used a figure. You mentioned a figure. I never used a figure when we discussed the financial settlement. I never used a figure. We worked well with the British Government on the basis of legal commitments entered into on both sides, legal commitments by your country for the period of its participation in the customs union and the single market against the backdrop of the financial perspectives, so I would not endorse the figure you said. I did not mention that figure.

His comments are consistent with claims made at the end of last year that the UK and the EU had agreed to play down the full, eventual value of the “divorce bill” under the complex financial settlement agreement in order to minimise Brexiter protests in the UK.

Barnier also insisted that this payment was to cover obligations from the past, not to secure a good trade deal, and he implied that if the UK wanted to guarantee access to the single market, it would have to stump up more. He said:

That figure [£39bn] is settlement for the past. You want to leave the European Union. That is your decision, so we settle the accounts. As in any separation or divorce, we settle the accounts. That is what it is. The future is a different matter.

If your country—and this might happen—were to request participation in the single market, as per Norway, while remaining outside the European Union, we would discuss your financial participation to European solidarity, but that is for the future. The figure you mentioned relates to settling the balance for the past.

Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, used his questions at PMQs to ask about the economy. Here is an account of what was said from the Politics Home live blog.

SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford launches into a tirade about the shuddering recovery from the economic crash while bankers saw little or no retribution.

The PM defends the economic picture and protected more people from income tax while boosting jobs.

Blackford insists people are poorer as it has been the worst decade for wage growth in years and years. He says the PM is “incapable of leadership” and urges her to end the austerity programme.

He didn’t really ask a question there - but the PM defends her Brexit plan (which he also complained about) and noted that the Scottish NFU suggested parties should get behind the Chequers plan.

Johnny Mercer, a Conservative, asks if May will intervene to stop soldiers who served in Northern Ireland for being prosecuted for what happened in the past.

May says she is aware of how strongly people feel about this. She says the current system is not working. The government wants to ensure all deaths in the past in Northern Ireland are investigated in a way that is fair, proportionate and balanced. But that is not the case at the moment. There is disproportionate attention being paid to deaths caused by the armed forces.

Plaid Cymru’s Liz Saville Roberts says the aluminium and steel industry said earlier this week that thousands of jobs could be put at risk from the goverment’s Brexit policy. Is May prepared to hand out P45s to steel workers just to appease Brexit extremists in her party.

May says that is not correct. The government wants to protect jobs for the future, she says.

The SNP’s Carol Monaghan asks about a Windrush case, and a person who cannot claim employment support allowance because they have not made enough national insurance contributions, even though Home Office rules prevented the person from working (and hence acquiring those NI contributions).

May says the individual should get in touch with the Windrush taskforce.

Chris Green, a Conservative, asks about a case involving constituents who had to effectively bury their daughter three times because the police did not release some body parts to the family when the body was first handed over.

May says the family have had to endure a prolonged trauma. The Human Tissue Authority is looking into this case and what went wrong.

Labour’s Wayne David says, if the UK leaves the EU without a deal, it will not have access to the European arrest warrant. Would May be happy about that?

May says she wants to ensure the UK can still use it after Brexit.

Trudy Harrison, a Conservative, asks May to back faming and ensure that farmers can export their meat after Brexit.

May says the government wants to ensure that farmers will be able to export after Brexit. But the government will also be able to produce an alternative to the CAP.

May describes the Lisa Skidmore case as appalling. She says it is being reviewed to ensure this can never happen again.

PMQs - Snap verdict

PMQs - Snap verdict: Corbyn nailed it. Despite the challenges posed by facing a PM so obviously on the ropes (see 11.57am), he won comfortably, with a peroration that was perhaps one of his best. In fact, what probably helped a lot was his decision not to try to make mischief with the latest ERG anti-May plotting. (For obvious reasons, backbench opposition to the leadership is not particularly a good topic for Corbyn.) Instead he focused on universal credit - one of several areas where the government’s public service delivery record is very poor, but where Brexit has led to this receiving less attention than it deserves. Unusually, but successfully, Corbyn started with a gentle, trick question. (See 12.07pm.) After that he piled in with textbook display of evidence-based questioning, challenging May with robust and serious questions about universal credit and, towards the end, its impact on those currently on disability benefits who are due to migrate to UC. In the circumstances, May put up a pretty spirited defence. She could not really address Corbyn’s questions about whether UC is exacerbating poverty (because so many experts say it is), but she was entitled to say that the benefits system under Labour was not perfect and, interestingly, she tried the Corbyn tactic of using first-person stories to defend UC. But one anecdote from Roberta cannot counter a stack of statistical evidence from expert organisations. May responded to Corbyn’s peroration with a half-decent stirring one of her own, although it was very telling that, when she is looking for examples of things she has done to promote social justice, she chose to focus particularly on her time as home secretary and her reforms to stop and search. She has been PM for more than two years now. Is there really nothing better she can cite from her prime ministerial CV?

Corbyn says he asked about the NAO. The Trussell Trust says foodbank usage is four times higher in areas where UC has been rolled out. He says people with disabilities are being forced onto UC. Will the government ensure people retain the support they need. Or is it up to the government?

May says the government knows work is the best route of out poverty. If Corbyn thinks UC should be changed, why did Labour vote against the changes?

Corbyn says Labour has been speaking up for the poorest in society. It wants a decent system. Mind, the mental health charity, says many people with mental health problems could see their benefits stopped entirely. The government’s Brexit negotiations are an “abject failure”, he says. He can see that from the look on Tory MPs faces - not just the ERG lot, but all of them. He says government policies have failed, and disabled people risk losing their homes under UC. The PM is not challenging the burning injustices in society. She is pouring petrol on the crisis. When will she stop inflicting misery on people?

May says Corbyn talked about injustices. But she set up the racial disparities unit. She said no one should be stopped and searched because of the colour of their skin. We are seeing 3.3m more people in jobs. And what have we seen from Labour? Iranian state TV broadcasting a no confidence motion in Labour MP. And, “most shamefully of all”, Chuka Umunna saying Labour is now institutionally racist. That is what Corbyn has done for Labour; just think what he would do for this country.

Corbyn says the Child Poverty Action Group says UC will put more children in poverty. A government survey says that. Does May accept that?

May quotes Roberta, a claimant, saying UC works for her. And she quotes Ryan saying the same too. And another quote. She says under Labour 1.4m spend most of the decade trapped on benefits. Earlier this week unemployment hit a record low.

Corbyn says constituency MPs know the pain UC is calling. Some 60% of the cuts are hitting people in work. UC is creating hardship, and forcing people to use foodbanks. The NAO said this could end up costing the state more.

May says Corbyn talked about constituency cases. She says she remembers a single mother coming to see here when Labour was in office who wanted to work but was told she would be better off on benefits.

Jeremy Corbyn also congratulates Alastair Cook.

He says the NFU, the Federation of Small Businesses, the NAO, Gingerbread and the RSA - what do they have in common?

May says, across different areas, they all give good service. They are bodies to which the government listens.

Corbyn says he agrees with the first part of the answer. But they are also all telling the government universal credit is flawed and failing hundreds of thousands of people. In 2010 the government said UC would lift 350,000 children out of poverty. Does she still stand by that?

May says the government introduced UC because the “legacy system” left by Labour was flawed. Some people were getting up to £100,000 in benefits.

The Scottish Conservative David Duguid asks about the fishing industry.

May says the government wants a sustainable and profitable fishing industry. When the UK leaves the EU, it will take back control of its waters and decide who fishes in our seas.

Theresa May starts by sayings MPs will want to congratulate Alastair Cook on his long career.

(She’s a cricket fan, as wel as someone with an interest in how long high profile people can stay in post.)

PMQs

PMQs is starting soon.

Not for the first time, it is worth reminding everyone that, for a leader of the opposition, there is no harder PMQs than the one where the PM is in such a mess that everyone assumes a victory will be easy. David Cameron explained this well in a quote he gave Ayesha Hazarika and Tom Hamilton for their recent book about PMQs, Punch and Judy Politics.

My general rule [for PMQs] was that if you went in thinking you were going to do well you did badly, and if you went in thinking you would do badly you’d do well. And that’s partly expectations and partly how you respond. And I found that as leader of the opposition, if you thought, ‘Oh my God, today we are just going to nail this,’ that was always a disaster.

What the ERG is proposing for the Irish border

The ERG paper on the Irish border does not seem to be available anywhere on the web> (Jacob Rees-Mogg describes it as a research organisation, which is partly true, but it provides briefings for Brexiter Tory MPs. It does not have a website, and it only very rarely puts its documents into the public domain.)

So here, as a public service, is a readable version of the document’s executive summary.

The issue of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland has been allowed to frame the Brexit negotiations. Both the UK and the European Union have committed to introduce no new physical infrastructure. There is, at present, a border between the two countries for tax, VAT, currency, excise and security; these are managed using technologies without infrastructure at the physical border.

The key obstacle in the negotiations is the EU’s concern that goods could enter into the single market area through the Irish border without being compliant with EU standards or tariffs. The question for the EU is whether this risk to the integrity of the single market is so serious that it could block a free trade agreement with the UK.

It is in the interest of all parties to ensure that this is resolved as easily as possible and that the current border arrangements are modified to deal with the necessary extra checks. Both the CEO of HMRC and the head of Irish Revenue have confirmed that there will be no need for new customs facilities on the border to make this happen.

The checks that are required post-Brexit to retain the integrity of the EU single market and customs union include customs declarations, declarations of origin,sanitary and phytosanitary checks and checks on product compliance.

Cross-border trade on the island of Ireland is mostly comprised of regular shipments of the same goods. This repetitive trade is well suited to established technical solutions and simplified customs procedures already available in the Union customs code.

Larger companies may take advantage of trusted trader-type schemes. This status provides assurance of a high degree of compliance and hence entitles the bearer to simplified procedures.

For all companies, the requirements for additional declarations can be incorporated into the existing system used for VAT returns. Licensed customs brokers can be engaged to support businesses in dealing with rules of origin and customs arrangements.

For agricultural products, the government should agree equivalence of UK and EU regulations and conformity assessment. Since UK and EU standards are identical and will remain identical at the point of departure, determining equivalence after Brexit should be straightforward. The current smooth movement of agricultural products across the Irish border, without the need for border inspection posts, can be continued by maintaining the island of Ireland as a common biosecurity zone.

The proposals set out below can be realised within the existing legal and operational frameworks of the EU and the UK, based on the mutual trust on which regular trade depends. Any risk of fraud or smuggling can be addressed by effective co-operation by authorities on both sides of the border, as already occurs with smuggling of drugs, cigarettes, fuel and alcohol.

Such measures can ensure that the trade across the Irish border is maintained. They do nothing to alter the constitutional position of Northern Ireland, and do not violate the principle of consent enshrined in the Belfast Agreement. The integrity of the EU single market is safeguarded. The UK and the EU would be free to conclude a far-reaching free trade agreement.

Harnessing the latest developments in international best practice can deliver continued cooperation and prosperity in the best interests of the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland.

UPDATE: You can read the full text of the document here.

Updated

Here is my colleague Dan Sabbagh’s story about the ERG document.

And here is how it starts.

Theresa May has “failed to challenge the position taken by the EU” on the Irish border, allowing it to become “a decisive factor” in the Brexit negotiations, according to the hard Brexit European Research Group, which has been discussing whether to unseat the prime minister.

A position paper published on the future of the Irish border and presented by David Davis and a string of Tories hostile to May’s Chequers plan does concede that the UK will have to sign up to “equivalence of UK and EU regulations” for food products and standards.

But it claims it will be possible to do that by the UK and EU maintaining a system of customs checks away from the border. The paper says that “repetitive trade is well suited to established technical solutions and simplified customs procedures already available”.

Davis says all sides agree that checks are best conducted away from the border.

But Michel Barnier has talked about Northern Ireland having separate rules from the rest of the UK. That is completely unacceptable, he says.

And that’s it. The press conference is over.

Rees-Mogg says they have to wrap up so MPs can get to the Commons. But he does not say for PMQs. He says they need to be there “for prayers” (which take place in private at the start of every session.)

Q: Why did May not go for these plans originally?

You will have to ask her, Davis says.

He says around the world the trend is for more streamlined borders.

David Davis stresses his support for May is not conditional

Q: You say Theresa May has your support for now?

David Davis accuses the questioner of putting words in his mouth. He did not say “for now”, he says. She has his support, “full stop”.

  • David Davis stresses his support for May is not conditional.

Updated

Q: Your problem is that you don’t have the votes to replace Theresa May, do you?

May says the ERG focuses on policy. It is not taking a position on leadership. Some members may have their views, but not in their capacity as members of the ERG.

David Davis says his preference is for a free trade agreement. Rather than call it Canada plus plus plus, it would be free trade plus, because it would be based on various EU free trade agreements.

Updated

Q: [From the Westmonster website] Do you think remainers are using this as an issue to obstruct Brexit? And I have a source who said last night the ERG was in total chaos. Haven’t you let down people who voted for Brexit?

Jacob Rees-Mogg says yesterday the ERG published plans for trade, and today it has published plans for Northern Ireland. Like Alastair Cook, it is still scoring centuries, even though it has been around for a long time.

Updated

Q: What makes you think the EU would accept these plans when it has shown no sign of accepting them up to now? And what will you do if May refuses to budge?

Rees-Mogg says there is an “iron focus” in the paper on meeting the EU’s concerns. It is not a UK wishlist. It looks at EU precedent and EU law.

Rees-Mogg invites someone else to answer the question about May.

David Davis accepts the challenge. He says we are now at the pressurised part of the negotiations. At that point people look for other alternatives.

He says from last year the government had two customs proposals. This paper is saying this is the best way.

Q: But you lost the argument in cabinet?

Davis says the government chose to pursue another approach, which is why he left.

He says, if you look at what Juncker said this morning (see 9.50am), it is clear that the EU will not accept Chequers.

Updated

Q: You say the ERG is a research group. Last night was it researching ways of getting rid of May?

David Davis says he supports May. He resigned over this issue, but he wants her to stay and change her stance on this.

ERG leaders refuse to back Brexiter colleagues plotting against Theresa May

Q: This is very similar to the customs paper published by the government last summer. What is different? And do you agree with your ERG colleagues who want to get rid of Theresa May?

Jacob Rees-Mogg says he has long said that the policy needs to change, but he is supporting the prime minister. She has enormous virtues. He just wants one change in policy.

  • ERG leaders refuse to back Brexiter colleagues plotting against Theresa May. Jacob Rees-Mogg, the ERG chair, said so just now, backing up what Steve Baker, a former ERG chair and still one of the most influential organisers in the group, said earlier. (See 10.10am.)

On the border, he says he met Barnier with other members of the Brexit committee last week. Rees-Mogg knows that the EU is concerned about protecting the integrity of the single market.

Updated

Q&A

Rees-Mogg now invites questions.

Q: Have you considered a proposal to allow EU officials to inspect vehicles in Ireland?

Owen Paterson says the ERG considered all sorts of views.

He says people have an old-fashioned view of borders, involving a man in a tricorn hat stopping the carriage and putting a ladle in the treacle.

Borders don’t work like that anymore, he says.

He says, under this plan, the UK would be ahead of the game.

David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, goes next.

He says cross-border trade accounts for less than 5% of the Irish economy.

Run properly, the border would be no threat to the integrity of the single market, he says.

He says there are three reasons for borders: fiscal (tariffs), regulatory and rules of origin.

The paper deals with all these issues, he says.

He says the EU has offered a zero-tariff arrangement.

On rules of origin, he says people talk about there being hundreds of border crossings. But there are only a handful of places where good come into Northern Ireland, he says.

He says the paper is very practical. It could unlock the negotiations, he says. It represents common sense.

Rees-Mogg introduces David Trimble (Lord Trimble). He says Trimble’s presence counters claims that the ERG is not interested in the Irish issue.

Trimble says there is no reason why Brexit should undermine the Good Friday agreement, which he helped to negotiate.

If anything is likely to lead to instability, it is the approach being taken by Michel Barnier and the European commission, he says.

Here is Sky’s Lewis Goodall on the report.

The Conservative MP Maria Caulfield is speaking now. Rees-Mogg says she is one of the ERG members who has pushed hardest for the group to find a solution to the border issue. She sits on the Commons Northern Ireland affairs committee.

She says in Rotterdam their border inspection checks can take place up to 20 kilometres from the border.

All the solutions in the paper are reasonable, and are already in existence. They could be scaled up quickly, she says.

Hans Maessen, a Dutch customs expert who has contributed to the paper, is speaking now.

He says tariffs should not be an issue.

He says there is already a VAT clearance system in place. That could continue. But if the EU were not to agree, another system is available that could allow firms to make VAT declarations.

Firms with turnovers below £85,000 are exempt anyway, he says.

He says Theresa May’s plan, a facilitated customs arrangement, does not cover VAT. He asked the government about this, he says, and they said they would come back to him.

And, turning to regulations, the third issue that needs to be addressed, he says the UK and the EU would start with regulatory alignment.

There would be a need for veterinary-style checks, he says. But they would not have to be conducted at the border. So you could have a drive-through border, he says.

Here is the summary from the document.

Owen Paterson is speaking now. He says there is already a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

He says the people who trade across the border could easily use an authorised economic operator system. Any checks that would need to take place would not have to be conducted at the border, he says. There is no need for infrastructure at the border.

He says smuggling across the border takes place already.

He says there is nothing new in the document. It is actually quite boring, he says. And there is nothing in it that would pose a threat to the integrity of the single market, he says.

Theresa Villiers goes first. She says a Canada-style free trade agreement is in the interests of both sides. This paper shows how that could be achieved while keeping the border in Ireland as open as it is today, alongside checks that would protect the integrity of the EU’s single market.

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the ERG chair, is opening the briefing now.

He stresses that the ERG is a research organisation. And he says there is a formidable panel to present the ERG’s document.

Journalists have been given an 19-page paper setting out details of the ERG’s plans.

ERG press briefing on Brexit and the Irish border

I’m in the library at the RUSI thinktank on Whitehall, where the European Research Group briefing on their plans for tackling the Irish border issue after Brexit are about to be revealed.

Speakers on the panel include David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, Owen Paterson and Theresa Villiers, both former Northern Ireland secretary, and David Trimble, the former UUP leader and Northern Ireland first minister who is now a Conservative peer.

There are about 50 journalists here too.

Steve Baker, the former Brexit minister who is a leading figure in the European Research Group, the Tory faction pushing for a harder Brexiter, has said that the ERG is not pushing for Theresa May to be replaced.

I’m just off to the ERG briefing on Ireland now. Normally I would cover an event like this from a TV feed, but I’m not sure it will be televised. It’s in a Whitehall venue about 10 minutes’ walk way. I’ll post again when I’m there.

The two men accused by the UK of carrying out a nerve agent attack in Salisbury have been identified and are civilians, not criminals, Vladimir Putin has said. My colleague Andrew Roth has the full story here.

Juncker says UK cannot remain just 'in parts' of single market

Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European commission, has been delivering his annual state of the union address to MEPs in Strasbourg. He said that the commission would work “night and day” to get a Brexit deal and that the EU would always have a special relationship with the EU. He said:

The United Kingdom will never be an ordinary third country for us. The United Kingdom will always be a very close neighbour and partner, in political, economic and security terms.

The commission’s negotiators stand ready to work day and night to reach a deal. We owe it to our citizens and our businesses to ensure the United Kingdom’s withdrawal is orderly and that there is stability afterwards. It will not be the commission that will stand in the way of this.

But he also appeared to reject a central part of Theresa May’s Chequers plan, the proposal for the UK to remain effectively in the single market for goods but not for services. The UK could not have the same “privileged position” as a member state, he said.

If you leave the union you are of course no longer part of our single market - and certainly not only in parts of it.

And Juncker also said the EU would always show “loyalty and solidarity” with Ireland on the issue of its border with Northern Ireland.

We will defend all the elements of the Good Friday Agreement. It is Brexit that risks making the border more visible in Northern Ireland. It is not the European Union.

Jean-Claude Juncker delivering his state of the union speech at the European Parliament
Jean-Claude Juncker delivering his state of the union speech at the European Parliament Photograph: Frederick Florin/AFP/Getty Images

Gove issues call for unity as Tory Brexiter anger against May intensifies

With the possible exception of the 24 hours or so after the announcement of the findings of the 2017 general election exit poll, Theresa May is probably closer than she has ever been to facing a leadership challenge. That is not, repeat not, the same as saying that there will be one soon, because although there are enough Conservative MPs who hate her Chequers Brexit plan to trigger a confidence vote, they don’t have a viable strategy that could pass the House of Commons and almost certainly they don’t even have the numbers to beat May in a straight yes/no confidence vote (which would take place before someone like Boris Johnson would have the chance to stand in a leadership contest.) Still, with PMQs coming today, these are tense times for the prime minister.

ITV’s Robert Peston revealed quite how febrile the mood is in the Conservative party last night with a post on his Facebook account giving an extraordinary account of how members of the European Research Group, the 50-strong hard Brexit caucus in the Conservative party, devoted their weekly meeting last night to a detailed discussion about how May could be replaced. Here is an excerpt from the account, which Peston says has been verified by multiple sources.

We’ve just had an ERG mass meeting, 50 odd MPs present, where virtually the only topic of conversation for 40/50 mins was: how best do we get rid of her? What’s the best way to use our letters?

Comments included: ‘Everyone I know says she has to go’, ‘she’s a disaster’, ‘this can’t go on’.

You might think that this is usual far for us, but it’s not! Not in the mass weekly meeting, never in what’s basically a public forum.

The truly amazing thing was they spoke about it so openly, in such an unabashed way, even though they could see the Whips sneak sitting there.

Really, really detailed discussion of the mechanics of how best you game the leadership election rules. And zero dissent.

No one, in a room of fifty Tory MPs even raised a squeak of objection. Not even a murmured pretence as good form. Nor did anyone preface their remarks with any ‘sadly I’ve concluded formulae’.

Michael Gove, the environment secretary, was asked about this when he gave an interview to the Today programme this morning about the agriculture bill he is publishing today. Gove was a leading figure in the leave campaign but, unlike his Vote Leave colleague Boris Johnson, he has decided to back May’s Chequers plan. When asked about the latest ERG plotting

For as long as I’ve been in politics, there are always people who want to write stories about leadership speculation. It is one of those things like our weather - a feature of British life which some shrug off ... We need to make sure that we have unity in the Conservative party and we need to make sure that there is unity in the country behind the prime minister’s proposition.

This is loose talk. You always have loose talk. The critical thing is to ensure that we deliver on that Brexit mandate. I think that any diversion or any distraction from that mission means that our ability to ensure that the referendum mandate that we were given is delivered is undermined.

Gove has got a point when he says that speculation about leadership is an almost constant feature of political life, like moaning about the weather. But, as environment secretary, he should also know that there are such things as extreme weather events. We’re probably in the middle of a political equivalent.

Very conveniently, the ERG are holding a press briefing later. It should be interesting.

Here is the agenda for the day.

10.30am: The European Research Group, the which represents Tory MPs pushing for a harder Brexit, holds a press conference to unveil plans for addressing the Irish border issue in a Canada-style Brexit deal.

10.40am: Former GCHQ director Robert Hannigan and Sir Mark Lyall Grant, former national security adviser give evidence to the Lords international relations committee.

12pm: Theresa May faces Jeremy Corbyn at PMQs.

As usual, I will also be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to post a summary after PMQs and another when I finish, at around 5pm.

You can read all today’s Guardian politics stories here.

Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.

If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

I try to monitor the comments BTL but normally I find it impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer direct questions, although sometimes I miss them or don’t have time.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.

Updated

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