WASHINGTON — Democrats’ signature election legislation, the For the People Act, is almost guaranteed to fail when Senate Democrats try to move toward a vote Tuesday afternoon.
But with liberal activists priming for a fight, the debate of whether to overhaul how the country conducts elections likely isn’t going to end this week.
Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y., needs support from 60 senators to bring the bill up for discussion, a number he isn’t expected to reach with his slim control. Until late Tuesday, it wasn’t even clear that Schumer would get the support of all Democratic senators. Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., has made clear he doesn’t support the bill without revisions. Manchin agreed to vote to begin debate Tuesday, and Schumer committed to take up Manchin’s proposed substitute amendment first if 10 Republicans voted to allow debate.
Last week, Manchin circulated a list of changes to the bill that he wanted to see, but Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., quickly rejected them as inadequate and said no Republican would sign on. That means even with Manchin’s support or proposed changes, the bill likely won’t get the 10 Republican votes needed to move forward.
Schumer lambasted Republicans’ recalcitrance, stressing that the vote is just to begin debate on the bill, at which point it could be modified or amended.
“Will our colleagues stand up for what generations of Americans have fought for, marched for and died for?” Schumer said Tuesday. “Or will they just slink away and say we’re not going to even debate this?”
The minority party loses leverage by allowing the Senate to debate legislation it doesn’t like. It takes a simple majority to pass legislation, a number Democrats can reach on their own, and there is no guarantee that any changes Republicans or moderate Democrats want would be made to the bill before that vote happens. Refusing to move legislation can force the majority party to moderate a bill to reach consensus.
Failure to meet the 60-vote threshold is expected to reignite debate over changing the filibuster rules, which both parties have used while in the minority to block consideration of legislation they do not like. It takes a simple majority to change Senate rules, but Manchin, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., and other Democrats are leery of making such a permanent move.
Dozens of liberal groups are preparing a last-ditch effort to pressure senators to either pass the legislation or get rid of the vote threshold, through television ads, phone banks and rallies nationwide over the July 4 holiday. Some are lining up to target Democratic lawmakers, including California’s Dianne Feinstein.
Feinstein has previously opposed changing Senate rules to eliminate the 60-vote threshold but also has signaled that she might consider it over voting rights.
“Our summer of mobilization and grassroots actions to pass this bill will continue. Democracy will prevail. Failure is not an option,” Karen Hobert Flynn, president of government watchdog Common Cause, said in a statement.
President Joe Biden has named election reform and voter access a top priority, and recently tasked Vice President Kamala Harris with working on voter rights and access issues. Although she has given speeches and met with supporters, she hasn’t been publicly engaged in whipping up support on Capitol Hill.
Activists’ pressure campaign faces an uphill battle. Biden and Congress are focused on achieving other priorities, such as infrastructure, immigration and a government spending package.
And activists are already showing frustration with Biden for not doing more to rally support. Some progressive members have added to the chorus.
“Where is the president?” Indivisible founder Ezra Levin said on Twitter on Monday. “Is saving democracy a priority for this administration or not? I don’t want to see some tepid public statement. We need to see the president and VP using the full force of their bully pulpit to lead.”
Indivisible, an activist group inspired by the results of the 2016 election, has organized hundreds of events nationwide to pressure senators in the next few weeks.
The White House formally endorsed the bill Tuesday. White House press secretary Jen Psaki said criticism from progressives aimed at Biden were “a fight against the wrong opponent.”
“We share their passion. We share the desire to fight these efforts,” Psaki said. “It doesn’t mean that that fight will always be easy, but he is going to stand by them in this effort.”
Schumer wouldn’t discuss next steps Tuesday before the vote. Schumer can bring the bill, or another piece of election reform legislation, before the Senate again this year.
The bill, which has already passed the House, would set up public financing of federal elections, establish minimum standards for early and absentee polling times and same-day registration and put nonpartisan panels in charge of redrawing congressional districts. It also sets ethics requirements for the president and vice president, and changes the composition of the Federal Elections Commission, the federal agency that oversees campaign spending.
Democrats say it is necessary to counter the wave of legislation proposed by Republican state lawmakers nationwide since the 2020 presidential election that strips state officials of their power in running elections, makes it easier for legislatures to overturn election results and sets new hurdles on early and absentee voting. Fourteen states have passed new laws on voting, including limiting whether water and food can be legally provided to people waiting in long lines to vote. Dozens more restrictions have been proposed.
McConnell said the bill — numbered S 1 — was an attempt to nationalize elections in a way that would harm the Republican Party’s chances of winning elections in the future. Congress has authority over federal elections; states have authority over state elections.
“It’s a recipe for undermining confidence in our elections. For remaking our entire system of government to suit the preferences of one far end of the political spectrum,” McConnell said Tuesday. “It’s always been a plan to rewrite the ground rules of American politics.”
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