PALMDALE, Calif. _ While walking into Target here recently, Bob and Deidre Murphy noted that GOP Rep. Steve Knight's district is "a little pocket" of conservatism in Los Angeles County.
"I think that's going away though," Bob said. Deidre added, "It is."
Shifting demographics and political affiliations has Democrats optimistic they can unseat Knight in the 25th District, which was once considered a Republican stronghold. It's emblematic of other Democratic targets in 2018 _ a suburban seat that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 with an increasingly diverse population.
Some operatives in both parties say the changing dynamics and Knight's recent fundraising numbers could mean he is the most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the Golden State, especially after GOP Reps. Darrell Issa and Ed Royce decided to retire.
Knight disputes that.
"In the last election everybody was writing that I wasn't going to win. In the previous one everyone was writing that I wasn't going to win," Knight said at the Simi Valley Cajun and Blues Festival last week. " ... I'm always in the district. I flew back across this country 70 _ seven zero _ times last year."
"People know me." Knight said. " ... That's really hard to beat."
People like Bob and Deidre.
They are Republicans who are not fans of President Donald Trump's style, but they're supporting Knight. The couple said they know Knight and his wife personally from their children's' soccer team.
Knight acknowledged increased energy on the Democratic side, but said he plans to keep the focus on his work in Congress and issues affecting the district.
But Democrats in the area have a renewed optimism about their potential for success after Clinton carried the seat. They're itching to flip the seat from red to blue _ starting with an office building in Newhall.
Last Saturday local Democrats opened up an office in Newhall for volunteers to gather and organize. It's the first time they've had an office space during a midterm election year.
Michelle Kampbell, a local Democratic leader, noted at the opening that the space used to be the local GOP headquarters, drawing cheers from the Democrats in the room.
Knight's name is well known in the 25th District, which encompasses northern Los Angeles County. His father was a record-breaking Air Force test pilot and state senator. Knight worked as a Los Angeles police officer before being elected to the Palmdale City Council in 2004. He went on to serve in state government before being elected to Congress in 2014.
Residents of the 25th and operatives watching the race note the district has shifted to the left due to a population boom. And some Democrats said 2016 was a tipping point.
"We would set up a headquarters when we could afford to, but nothing like this," said Diane Trautman, who ran unsuccessfully against GOP Rep. Buck McKeon in 1996 and attended the Newhall office opening last week. " ... Really the 2016 election and (President Donald) Trump's election exploded the energy here."
Democrats now outnumber registered Republicans here by nearly 14,000 voters. Nearly one in four voters are not registered with any party.
Democrats also see opportunity in the district's increasing diversity _ especially an increase in Latino and black residents. Nearly 40 percent of the district is Latino, which makes immigration a top issue.
Knight has signed onto a discharge petition to force a vote on immigration measures in the House, and says he knows the arduous immigration process first-hand since his wife is a Chilean immigrant. But Democrats say Knight has not done enough to differentiate himself with Trump on the issue.
Democrats are also heartened by activism among younger voters. Last Saturday, shortly before Knight attended the music festival 60 miles away, students marched through Palmdale in the Antelope Valley to call for action on gun violence. Earlier this month, a 14 year-old male student opened fire in Highland High School in Palmdale, injuring one student.
Gun violence remains a top issue in the district, and it has become a contentious one in the competitive Democratic primary.
The June 5 primary will decide which Democrat will take on Knight in November, but there is a divide over what kind of Democrat is the best fit for the district.
Katie Hill, an executive for a non-profit combating homelessness, describes the 25th as a purple district and emphasizes that she would work with Republicans and Democrats to get things done in Congress.
Attorney Bryan Caforio, who unsuccessfully challenged Knight in 2016, says the district needs a strident Democrat who is willing to stand up to Trump.
Volcanologist Jess Phoenix also touts her liberal values, but says she wants to focus on the local economy, which includes shifting from an area dominated by commuters to one with more jobs based in the district.
Hill and Caforio are viewed as the top two contenders, which Phoenix dismisses as analysis based on fundraising numbers.
Hill has raised $1.4 million throughout her campaign, while Caforio has raised $1.1 million and Phoenix has raised $456,000. Hill also outraised Knight the last two fundraising quarters, raising some concerns among Republicans about Knight's campaign.
Knight said he has been approached about those concerns, and his improved fundraising will be reflected in the next report. He also noted he will have an advantage in cash on hand after the costly Democratic primary.
Voters deciding between the Democrats are weighing their policies and also their chances of defeating Knight.
Paul Chandler, a 72 year-old Democrat who attended the Simi Valley music festival, said he was leaning toward Hill since Caforio had a shot at Knight in 2016 and lost.
Caforio explains his 2016 loss as a 10-month campaign, which he was able to make competitive even as a political unknown. He noted the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee didn't even list the district as an initial 2016 target. This cycle the DCCC has a field organizer on the ground in Knight's district and has run digital ads encouraging voter registration.
Caforio said this time he started his campaign earlier, with a focus on his ground game and reaching out to different areas of the district. That was on display in Santa Clarita last Saturday, where Caforio was canvassing with his wife and a Spanish-speaking volunteer.
A man in a white car called out to Caforio from the street, recognizing him from his campaign ads.
"I think you are the first politician that's ever come across the railroad tracks," the man said, referring to the tracks between the neighborhood and the rest of the city.
Caforio says that when he knocks on doors the top concern he hears is related to Trump. But Hill said she hears more concerns about the economy and health care affordability than comments about the president.
The two have different approaches to Trump in their campaigns.
"I think we have to fight his policies and bring voice to those," Hill said. "But I don't think we want to make this election about Donald Trump."
Caforio said Trump is a "huge issue." He said people in the community, particularly immigrant families, are frightened for the future.
Caforio and Hill have some similar policy positions. Both support an assault weapons ban. But Hill has also noted that she owns guns, and said at a recent town hall that new laws might not have prevented gun-related deaths in her own life.
Both support a path to citizenship for so-called Dreamers, or undocumented immigrants brought to the U.S. as children. Caforio said Democrats in Congress should have used their leverage over government funding to push for a clean bill addressing the Dreamers. But Hill supports coupling increased border security funds with a solution for Dreamers.
"If you are a Democrat who's upset that we haven't protected the Dreamers yet, it's because Democrats like that have gotten elected," Caforio said of Hill.
On Tuesday Democratic voters will choose which candidate and which strategy is the best to take on Knight, who Republicans are already gearing up to defend.
The NRCC hit Caforio early on, launching a digital ad in August of 2017 targeting his position on single-payer health care (Caforio supports Medicare-for-all legislation).
And the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with House GOP leadership, opened a field office in the district a year ago.
"CLF is committed to working to ensure Republicans keep the House, and California's 25th Congressional District is going to be an important seat to maintaining the majority," said CLF spokesman Michael Byerly.
Roughly 50 CLF interns work in the 25th District, and that number is expected to double over the summer to include college students. The group's office in Lancaster, Calif., was humming Friday night.
With a snack table stocked with Capri Sun juice pouches and chips, a dozen high school students made phone calls to voters, surveying them on Knight, Trump, the tax overhaul and the initiative to repeal the state's gas tax.
Republicans believe a ballot initiative repealing the gas tax could drive out voters, especially in the 25th District, which is home to scores of voters who commute in and out of Los Angeles every day. The group is also touting Knight's work on veterans issues and his support for the GOP tax overhaul (which Democrats say will have a negative effect on Californians).
CLF's message is similar to Knight's own, which is keeping the focus on his district even amid a tumultuous national political environment.
"We kind of keep our head down and do our job," Knight said. "And I think people like that."
