The respected Cook Political Report crowned Republicans the early favorites on Thursday to grab control of the House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections, but warned the redistricting process could still shake things up.
With Democrats holding a razor-thin five-seat majority, the early odds suggest that the GOP-led redrawing of lines in several states alone would tip the balance in the House even if every American voted for the same party as last year.
Two safe Democratic seats in North Carolina and Georgia have already been effectively morphed into safe GOP districts, due to new district lines. Five other Democratic seats are now deemed either likely or leaning to the GOP column, while only two Republican-held seats in Illinois look likely to flip blue.
“Still a long way to go, but Republicans have clear edge for control,” Dave Wasserman, a Cook analyst, said on Twitter.
Aside from redistricting, Republicans believe they can ride President Joe Biden’s unpopularity in polls to an even more sweeping win in the midterms, where the sitting president’s party nearly always flops.
The report notes that egregious Republican gerrymanders, especially those in North Carolina and Ohio, could be struck down by courts.
There could also be big surprises yet to come in the 19 states that have not yet finished the once-a-decade redistricting process, including New York and Florida.
New York’s dominant Democrats may redraw the lines in the Empire State to dramatically reshape the congressional delegation, which declined from 27 to 26 seats. They could use their supermajorities in the Assembly and Senate to pass maps giving Democrats up to a 23-3 edge, up from the 19-8 margin they now hold.
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