Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists have run the numbers on the World Cup and — much as others have done — concluded that Spain are the most likely to come up winners in the epic football contest.
“Our prediction aligns with the historical pattern that the World Cup almost always comes back to Europe after having been won by a South American team,” Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a note Friday.
Goldman’s statistical model showed Spain with a 26% probability of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The analysis combined historical match data, team rankings, scoring talent and geographic factors to forecast the tournament’s outcome. The model relies heavily on Elo ratings — a system originally created for chess, which measures team strength based on results and opponent quality.
