The Golden Globe awards derive most power largely by dint of the schedule. First round Oscar voting ended on 8 January, so the winners and losers - and well as the calibre of the former’s speeches and the piquancy of latter’s tears - won’t affect the Academy nominations (revealed 15 January). But they will likely colour crucial second-round ballots in both Baftas and Oscars.
The Golden Globe voters, for this reason, are by far the most powerful, because of this leverage and their comparatively tiny number. While the Oscars are decided by around 6,000 industry veterans, invited to join the Academy because of proven success in acting, directing, writing or, say, cinematography (and Bafta has a slightly higher membership still, similarly composed), there are just 93 members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA).
Their credentials as bonafide movie journalists have been questioned over the years, as well as their impartiality, on account of what’s seen as easy butterability by studios and publicists. Measures have recently been introduced to clamp down on iffy practices, but there’s still little doubt that rather than being less in bed with the nominees than, as you’d imagine, Oscar voters, these 93 are likely yet more prone to giving it up for Hollywood. These are fans, yankophiles by profession, treated to A-list treatment by hungry publicists – and keen for it to continue.
Best film, drama
Ernst & Young, the accounting firm which tots up the votes, has said over the weekend that the gaffe was just a gaffe, and Selma hasn’t necessarily nailed it. However, I’m betting that, in fact, it has won best drama, for there’s little the Globes would like better than a heavyweight political biopic with added Oprah stardust. Failing Selma, Boyhood would be the next bet. The Imitation Game and The Theory of Everything are cripplingly British; Foxcatcher’s rosettes will likely be reserved for acting, if anything.
Best film, comedy or musical
If it hadn’t been for that website leak, which suggested Into the Woods, I’d have said Birdman, easy. So let’s stick with that. Pride and St Vincent one can pretty much dismiss, but saying you like The Grand Budapest Hotel doesn’t make you look half as clever as saying you appreciate the pseudo-single-take meta movie about a Hollywood star stretching himself for credibility. But it might be that Into the Woods ran a great campaign, or the voters are suckers for a song.
Best actress, comedy or musical
This is where I think the 93 members will splurge their love for Into the Woods, naming Emily Blunt the winner, just nabbing it from Amy Adams for Big Eyes. Julianne Moore is such a shoo-in for best actress, drama that she doesn’t stand a chance for Maps to the Stars, for which she won best actress at Cannes. Helen Mirren for The Hundred-Foot Journey and Quvenzhané Wallis for Annie are just making up the numbers.
Best supporting actor
No-one’s impossible, and there’s a chance that people may have felt JK Simmons such an easy favourite for Whiplash that they neglected to actually tick his box (possibly what happened to Timothy Spall at the Baftas). Strong competition from Edward Norton for Birdman and Mark Ruffalo for Foxcatcher. Heavy campaigning would have been needed to win it for The Judge’s Robert Duvall. Ethan Hawke would be a nice but weird choice for Boyhood.
Best score
Antonio Sanchez’s innovative Birdman banger has probably got this one in the bag because Oscar disqualified it, meaning the Globes have another reason to celebrate it. All the familiar names are in the running: Alexandre Desplat for The Imitation Game, Johann Johannsson for The Theory of Everything, Trent Reznor for Gone Girl and Hans Zimmer for Interstellar. Sanchez’s relative anonymity may work for him.
Best song
Regardless of whether Selma wins best picture, John Legend and Common’s Glory has probably got this licked, with Lana Del Ray’s Big Eyes theme in at No 2, and Lorde’s Yellow Flicker Beat from Hunger Games, Mockingjay Pt 1 third choice. Patti Smith, Lenny Kaye’s Mercy Is from Noah and Annie’s scramble for a best original song, Opportunity, aren’t likely to get an airing.
Best director
A very tight race. But Richard Linklater’s sheer achievement in making Boyhood must surely make him the favourite over Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel), David Fincher for Gone Girl and Alejandro González Iñárritu for Birdman. But Selma fails to take best drama then Ava Duvernay has to be the popular choice.
Best actor, drama
Jake Gyllenhaal for Nightcrawler is least likely among a very strong lineup, with Benedict Cumberbatch for The Imitation Game perhaps taking penultimate spot. There’s a little persistent ambivalence about Steve Carell in Foxcatcher, and an inner coolness in David Oyelowo’s Martin Luther King in Selma, which probably means Eddie Redmayne will take it for The Theory of Everything – a performance which is warm and unexpectedly charming, as well as everything an awards contender should be.
Best supporting actress
Patricia Arquette is seen as a shoo-in for Boyhood, and LA just loves an old stager being prepared to age before their very eyes. But do they love that more than they love Meryl Streep? It’s possible her Into the Woods witch might just pip Arquette at the post. Jessica Chastain for A Most Violent Year, Keira Knightley for The Imitation Game and Emma Stone for Birdman aren’t really in the frame.
Best actress, drama
Ever since Still Alice debuted at Toronto, no-one has thought the best actress awards are anyone’s but Julianne Moore’s for the taking. So it’d be a major upset if Jennifer Aniston nabbed it for Cake, another Toronto illness movie (in which she is, incidentally, very good). Rosamund Pike is seen as a dark horse for Gone Girl, but it’s hard to see Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything) or Reese Witherspoon (Wild) making headway, despite similarly brilliant performances.
Best actor, comedy or musical
Michael Keaton has this in the bag for Birdman, which will mean a heavy push for his (already healthy) Oscar odds. Of the other nominees – including Bill Murray for St. Vincent, Joaquin Phoenix for Inherent Vice and Christoph Waltz for Big Eyes – perhaps only Ralph Fiennes for The Grand Budapest Hotel has a realistic shot.
Best animation
The LEGO Movie has winner written all over it: it’s safely subversive – and a massive box office hit. Big Hero 6 and The Boxtrolls are second and third picks, with The Book of Life and How to Train Your Dragon 2 unlikely to make it.
Best screenplay
The Globes may split the acting awards, but they combine both adapted and original screenplay into this subsequently choka category. Richard Linklater is favourite for Boyhood; Graham Moore has a shot for The Imitation Game, a movie perhaps better critically received in the US than the UK. Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris and Armando Bo’s Birdman has been better loved for its acting and tech specs, while Gillian Flynn for Gone Girl would be a hot potato option.
Best foreign language film
There’s much momentum around Force Majeure, but the real hacks among the voting pack should surely identify Leviathan as the story here, and push it to the top. Ida may prove just too challenging a prospect; Tangerines and Gett: The Trial of Viviane Amsalem are relatively untested.
