The Golden Globes are a different beast than other awards shows like the Oscars and the Emmys. Not only does the night feature both television and movies, but it is presided over by a small cabal of foreign writers rather than a large voting population of people who work in the industry. That means the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is generally outside of the politicking of other awards shows.
And the stakes are very different for the television awards. It might mean increased ratings or prestige, yes, but the Emmys, the medium’s big awards, aren’t until September. Winners on 11 January aren’t going to translate into more awards, as the film Golden Globes do for the Oscars. The HFPA likes to think of itself as more highbrow and innovative than the Emmys, which has never failed to give Modern Family a statue it didn’t deserve. That makes picking the winners of the Golden Globes television categories sort of like picking which flower box a drunken sorority girl is going to barf into as she totters home. You know it’s going to happen, but no one knows where. Just hopefully not on your shoes.
That said, it’s always fun to guess, so here goes.
Best television series – drama
The fact that The Affair, a mediocre freshman on Showtime, is nominated at all makes me think it’s already won. The Golden Globes loves a mediocre Showtime show like soccer hooligans like headbutting each other. Also I can see the Globes trying to give it to popular favorite Game of Thrones, which the Emmys always snubs, or trying to be so cool that they’re not afraid to back a network gem like The Good Wife. But I think at the end of the night House of Cards is going to take home the trophy that it lost last year to Breaking Bad. It has David Fincher, a movie-caliber cast, and the HFPA already showed its affection for the show by giving Robin Wright (Penn) an award last year.
Best performance by an actress in a television series – drama
Claire Danes (Homeland) is yesterday’s news, Julianna Margulies (The Good Wife) won the Emmy, Robin Wright (House of Cards) won last year. So who’s left? Viola Davis for How to Get Away with Murder and Ruth Wilson for The Affair. This could go either way, but I’m giving it to Ruth Wilson.
Best performance by an actor in a television series – drama
Clive Owen gave a killer performance in The Knick, a wonderfully made, little-seen show on Starz directed by Steven Soderbergh. I think that’s going to prove to be too much for the HFPA to resist. James Spader, a popular favorite and always a good time, could pull out a win for The Blacklist or Dominic West might surprise us if The Affair gets all the votes, but I think it’s Owen’s night. Sorry, Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan) and Kevin Spacey (House of Cards).
Best television series – comedy or musical
I think this is pretty easily going to be Transparent’s category. The show was on Amazon Prime, so it’s cutting edge, and because it came out this fall, the HFPA can show how hip it is before the Emmys can even nominate it. Also, it’s damned good. Jane the Virgin, which gets good buzz, has a shot and Orange is the New Black is sufficiently good and quirky for them to choose as well. Girls and Silicone Valley, while both great, seem less likely.
Best performance by an actress in a television series – comedy or musical
Gina Rodriguez is a name no one knows but does great on Jane the Virgin. She has a shot. Still I think it’s going to be Taylor Schilling for Orange is the New Black to win. Lena Dunham (Girls), Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie), and Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep) just seem far too over at this point. However JLD does give the best comedic performance on TV. Quality could win in the end.
Best performance by an actor in a television series – comedy or musical
Please, HFPA, whatever you do, don’t give it to Ricky Gervais for Derek. I know you want to so you can be contrary and thank him for hosting all those years, but for all that is holy, do not. Give it to anyone else: Louis CK (Louis), Don Cheadle (House of Lies), even William H Macy (Shameless). Especially give it to Jeffrey Tambor whose role as a trans woman in transition was absolutely remarkable on Transparent. Just don’t give it to Ricky, OK? Promise?
Best miniseries or motion picture made for television
I could come up with a rationale why any of the nominees could win. It’s an especially strong category, with Fargo, Olive Kitteridge, True Detective, The Normal Heart, and The Missing all nominated. If I had to guess (and I do because that is my job) I’ll say it’s a tie between Olive Kitteridge, which was beautiful and has lots of critical support, or True Detective, only to correct, at least in the minds of the HFPA, the Emmys not giving it a golden flying lady.
Best performance by an actress in a miniseries or motion picture made for television
Maggie Gyllenhaal will almost definitely get the gold for her amazing performance (and great accent) in The Honorable Woman. This excellent show on small SundanceTV is just the kind of thing the Globes always recognizes. Though Frances McDormand’s great work in Olive Kitteridge or Allison Tolman’s on Fargo may prove to be a spoiler.
Best performance by an actor in a miniseries or motion picture made for television
This isn’t the Emmys, which is obsessed with British actors, so Martin Freeman (Sherlock) can take a seat. Matthew McConaughey was promised an Emmy if he starred in True Detective but HBO went and put the show in the drama category and he lost. Now’s his chance. Billy Bob Thornton (Fargo), Mark Ruffalo (The Normal Heart) and Woody Harrelson (True Detective) will all look good in their tuxes though.
Best performance by an actress in a supporting role in a series, miniseries, or motion picture made for television
Uzo Aduba (Orange is the New Black) hands down.
Best performance by an actor in a supporting role in a series, miniseries, or motion picture made for television
I’m going to say Bill Murray for Olive Kitteridge because he doesn’t get nearly as many awards as he deserves, am I right? Jon Voight for Ray Donovan could be a good guess, but no one wants to give conservatives the prize. If it were up to me, Matt Bomer and Alan Cumming would share the award for The Normal Heart and The Good Wife and they would make out on stage while accepting their awards, but this is starting to sound more like slash fiction than an Golden Globes article.
