Closing post
Time to recap…
Stocks are piling up at US factories at a record rate this month, as demand weakens.
In the UK, growth has hit a four-month low, as the shutdown at Jaguar Land Rover hits manufacturing output.
That shutdown has been extended for another week this morning, as JLR reels from its cyberattack.
The OECD has lifted its global growth forecasts, while warning that Donald Trump’s trade war will hurt the world economy,
The UK is expected to slip to the middle of the G7 growth league table next year, with inflation likely to rise faster in Britain than other countries this year.
Gold has hit a record high, and is on track for its best year since 1979.
Chief economists warn of weak growth
The global economy is entering a period of weak growth and systemic disruption, a group of chief economists have warned.
The World Economic Forum’s latest Chief Economists’ Outlook has found that many expect a slowdown next year, and that debt pressures are rising.
The outlook has found:
72% of chief economists expect global economy to weaken in 2026 as disruptions in trade, technology, resources and institutions signal a shift to a new economic environment.
Regional growth pathways are diverging: 56% anticipate greater divergence between advanced and developing economies, with MENA and South Asia emerging as bright spots.
Debt risks are intensifying in advanced economies, with 80% of respondents expecting vulnerabilities to grow.
Photos: Peter Kyle visits JLR supplier
Back in the UK, Secretary of State for Business and Trade Peter Kyle has visited one of Jaguar Land Rover’s suppliers, to discuss how the JLR shutdown is affecting them.
He’s been pictured at Webasto, in Sutton Coldfield in the West Midlands.
Webasto make glass roofs for JLR, and was forced to close its factory and lay off personnel after the cyber-attack hit Britain’s largest carmaker this month.
Kenvue shares shrug off Trump's claims
Shares in Tylenol maker Kenvue bounced back today, recovering much of of yesterday’s losses when Donald Trump said pregnant women should limit their use of Tylenol, the US brand name for paracetemol. He claimed it heightens the risk of autism in children - a claim contested by scientists and contradicted by studies.
Wes Streeting, the UK health secretary, firmly rejected the US president’s claims today.
He told ITV’s Lorraine:
“I’ve just got to be really clear about this: there is no evidence to link the use of paracetamol by pregnant women to autism in their children. None.
“In fact a major study was done back in 2024 in Sweden, involving 2.4 million children, and it did not uphold those claims. So I would just say to people watching: don’t pay any attention whatsoever to what Donald Trump says about medicine. In fact, don’t even take my word for it as a politician. Listen to British doctors, British scientists, the NHS.”
Kenvue shares fell more than 7% yesterday after Trump’s intervention, hitting their lowest level since the consumer health company was spun out of US drugmaker Johnson & Johnson in 2023. The stock rose more than 6% in early trading in New York today.
Kenvue has been touted by analysts as a potential takeover target for Haleon, which was itself spun from British phamaceutical giant GSK three years ago. Kenvue is under pressure from activist investors to offload underperforming brands.
AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said:
“Despite President Trump suggesting a link between Tylenol and autism the company behind the branded paracetamol – Kenvue – did not suffer too much pain in the end overnight, paring earlier losses. Though the shares are down meaningfully since the first murmurings from the administration on a possible link earlier this month.”
Kenvue’s market value has fallen from $40bn in mid-August to less than $35bn today. In July, its board fired chief executive Thibaut Mongon, paving the path for what investors said they hope will be the eventual sale of the company. Kenvue’s other major brands include Listerine and Band Aid.
The jump in stocks of unsold goods at US factories this month are a sign that manufacturing sales growth is disappointing, says S&P Global’s Chris Williamson.
He suggests this could help to “soften inflation in the coming months,” adding:
“The inventory build-up of course also hints at some downside risks to future production. While growth expectations across both manufacturing and services also continue to be dogged by concerns over the political environment, and especially tariffs, September encouragingly saw business sentiment improve in part due to the anticipated beneficial impact of lower interest rates.”
US business growth slows as stock piles up at American factories
Just in: Business growth across the US is slowing this month, due to a softening of demand growth across both manufacturing and the services sector.
The latest poll of purchasing managers at American companies has found that levels of unsold stock at US factories has jumped this month, at the fastest rate in the survey’s history.
🇺🇸 US Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.0, with slower growth in output & new orders. Disappointing sales led to the largest build-up of unsold finished goods ever. Services PMI dropped to 53.9 due to weaker domestic demand. Input costs rose to a near 27-month high but firms struggled… pic.twitter.com/20Hm69eSnP
— Augur Infinity (@AugurInfinity) September 23, 2025
S&P Global, which conducts the PMI survey, reports that growth has weakened for a second successive month in September.
Comapnies also blamed tariffs as being the principal cause of further cost increases in September, most evidently in the manufacturing sector.
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, says:
“Further robust growth of output in September rounds off the best quarter so far this year for US businesses. PMI survey data are consistent with the economy expanding at a 2.2% annualized rate in the third quarter.
However, the monthly profile is one of growth having slowed from its recent peak back in July, and September saw companies also pull back on their hiring. Softening demand conditions are also becoming more widely reported, curbing pricing power.
Although tariffs were again cited as a driver of higher input costs across both manufacturing and services, the number of companies able to hike selling prices to pass these costs on to customers has fallen, hinting at squeezed margins but boding well for inflation to moderate.
This pulled S&P Global’s flash US Composite PMI output index down to 53.6, a three-month low, showing a slowdown in growth.
Revolut opens global HQ in London
Europe’s largest fintech Revolut has opened the doors to its new global headquarters in the YY London Canary Wharf to much fanfare this afternoon, as bosses announced plans to invest £3bn in the UK and create 1,000 new jobs over the next five years.
The chancellor Rachel Reeves was on site, throwing her support behind the fintech firm, even issuing an official Treasury release about the investment (which averages out to about £600m and 200 jobs per year).
The Treasury said Revolut’s investment “marks its commitment to the UK” where it has grown to a company with over £3bn in revenues and 10,000 staff.
It continues the government’s charm offensive, with ministers desperate to convince Revolut to choose London for its much-awaited stock market debut primary listing.
That is despite growing frustration from CEO Nik Storonsky about further delays to the firm’s UK banking license, which has been approved with restrictions while regulators assess any outstanding issues.
Reeves tried to secure a meeting with watchdogs and regulators earlier this year amid the banking license delay, but was blocked by the Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, amid concerns that Reeves was meddling in a process that should be independent from government intervention and influence.
Commenting on the opening of the new HQ, Reeves said:
“The UK is well and truly open for business under this Government.
Through our Leeds Reforms we’re making Britain the best place for financial services companies to do business, pushing us ahead in the global race for investment and putting more money in people’s pockets through the Plan for Change.”
Storonsky said in a statement:
“Today’s opening of our new Global HQ in London is the launchpad for our future. This HQ will be central to driving our growth towards our next milestone of 100 million customers.
“To power that journey from our home market, we are investing £3 billion in the UK over the next five years. This commitment will not only create 1,000 new jobs but will also fuel the innovation from our London hub that will help us deliver on our global ambitions.”
Revolut said on Tuesday that it is also planning to grow its 65m global customer base to of 100m by mid 2027. It comes as it prepares to launch in India and make it first push in Africa starting in South Africa
Meghan, Duchess of Sussex offered MagicFM show
Media news: Meghan Markle has been offered her own show on MagicFM after saying in her Netflix TV series that listening to the station was one of the things she missed most about living in the UK.
Last month, the Duchess of Sussex revealed in the second series of her Netflix lifestyle programme, With Love, Meghan, that MagicFM’s easy-listening mix of soft pop and love songs was “one of the things I miss most about the UK”.
On Tuesday, Paul Sylvester, content director at MagicFM and Absolute Radio, revealed on a panel that he has held discussions with Markle’s representatives and made a formal offer.
“We had conversions with the Sussex team and if the Duchess would like to add radio presenter to her CV there is an offer on the table,” he said, speaking at Tuning In, a conference held by UK radio body RadioCentre on Tuesday.
MagicFM has a roster of presenters including Ronan Keating and ex-All Saints singer Nicole Appleton.
Gok Wan and Harriet Scott on the breakfast show and other hosts including Nicki Chapman, Gaby Roslin and Mel Giedroyc.
The main Magic station has a weekly audience of 2.3m, while across the network it attracts 3.6 million listeners.
MagicFM is owned by Bauer Media, the second biggest radio group in the UK, which also owns Hits Radio and Greatest Hits.
“We love that Meghan is a big fan of the station,” said Sylvester, in a statement to the Guardian.
“We’e been in with her team and offered her a show, if she ever wanted one.”
Last month, the Duke and Duchess of Sussex signed a new multi-year film and television deal with Netflix.
Harry and Meghan, who struck a five-year deal in 2020 reportedly worth $100m (£78m) after stepping back from their duties as senior royals, have collaborated with Netflix on a number of projects
Updated
Labour MP warns of 'cash crunch' danger from JLR shutdown
Labour MP for Tipton and Wednesbury Antonia Bance has warned that Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) suppliers face a “real cash crunch” during the production pause.
Bance has described the extended pause as “hugely worrying”, telling the PA news agency:
“Obviously, JLR are a jewel in the crown of British manufacturing.
“But whilst 34,000 people are employed at JLR, there are over 200,000 in the supply chain to JLR who are obviously experiencing really profound knock-on effects.
“We’re seeing production lines closed across the West Midlands and further afield and suppliers having a real cash crunch.
“There’s a real problem with cashflow which is meaning people, obviously, with production lines down and JLR not paying for what they would normally sell them under contract, they’re not able to pay their staff.
“What this risks is a disintegration of the entire supply chain into JLR, which means that when JLR stands back up again and is ready to go – and it will do, once it’s got over this cyber attack – it may be that some of the supply chain isn’t ready to go if they’ve lost the skilled labour that they rely on, or maybe some of the businesses have gone under.”
Updated
Rupee hits record low as U.S. tariff, visa policies heap pressure on India
Back in the markets, India’s currency has hit a record low against the US dollar today.
The rupee was hut by worries about the US trade war, and the consequences of the new $100,000 fee for H-1B visas, which are heavily used by India.
The ruppee fell as low as 88.7975 to the dollar, an alltime low, before ending at 88.755/$.
The rupee has fallen more than 3.5% this year, making it one of the region’s worst performers, Reuters points out.
#RupeeAtClose | Rupee ends at record closing low of 88.76/$ against Monday’s close of 88.31/$ pic.twitter.com/7mrgLqlaOB
— CNBC-TV18 (@CNBCTV18Live) September 23, 2025
Last month, Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on most US imports from India, over its purchases of discounted Russian oil.
All Amazon Fresh stores in UK to close
Just in: Amazon is preparing to shut down all of its Amazon Fresh stores in the UK, just four years after the US tech company launched its first grocery shop in London.
The company plans to close all 19 Fresh stores, with plans to convert five of these into Whole Foods shops, the US organic grocery chain that it bought in 2017.
Amazon launched its first Fresh store in 2021 in Ealing, west London, that allowed customers to walk out with their shopping without having to use a till.
Instead, shoppers use an app to enter the store and are charged when they leave, with a range of highly sensitive cameras and sensors used to monitor which products they picked up while in store.
However, the concept has struggled as demand for contactless shopping waned at the end of the coronavirus pandemic and Amazon has not been able to pose a serious threat to the likes of Tesco and Sainsbury’s.
More manufacturing gloom: the latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to September.
Worryingly, manufacturers expect output volumes to decline again in the next three months.
The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to September, at a slower pace to the three months to August. Manufacturers expect output volumes to decline again in the next three months. pic.twitter.com/A2UAo3xZwz
— CBI Economics (@CBI_Economics) September 23, 2025
BoE's Pill less worried about inflation, as he explains QT dissent
Encouragingly, Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill, is less worried about UK inflation than earlier this year.
Pill has been speaking at the inaugural Pictet Research Institute Symposium 2025 this morning, when he has explained he is now more comfortable with the outlook for price pressures.
Pill said (via Reuters):
“It’s always a question of a balance of risks. And you know, I have been on the side of saying maybe the balance of risks are more on the inflationary side than the disinflationary side.
“I think, through time, and also as markets reprice, that probably is changing. And personally, I’m more comfortable now than I was six, nine, 12 months ago.”
Last month, inflation was unchanged at 3.8%, almost double the Bank’s 2% target.
Pill is one of the more hawkish policymakers at the Bank, and opposed the decision to slow the pace of its quantitative tightening (QT) programme last week.
QT is the process where the Bank cuts the holding of government bonds it build up during the financial crisis and Covid-19. Last year, it conducted £100bn of QT, but now plans to only do £70bn over the next 12 months.
Pill, though, voted for another £100bn, which would have meant actively selling more bonds than the rest of the Bank policymakers were comfortable with.
Today, he explains that he wanted the Bank to maintain “continuity and consistency” in its approach to QT, saying:
What permits QT to operate “in the background” is the scope for Bank Rate (as the “active instrument”) to establish a policy stance that delivers inflation sustainably at target given the impact of QT on yields. With Bank Rate away from its effective lower bound and able to change in either direction, this is the environment in which QT has operated in recent years.
Operating within our established principles has allowed the market to price the impact of QT and has thereby allowed the MPC to set Bank Rate to achieve the inflation target given the impact of QT – as well as a multitude of other factors – on the yield curve, bank behaviour and wider financial and credit decisions.
Updated
Today’s OECD forecasts are a sign that “the bad news keeps piling up for the government”, says Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.
Brooks explains:
The OECD has said that the UK faces the highest level of inflation of any major economy this year. The OECD predicts that UK inflation rate will rise to 3.5% this year from 2.5% a year ago, and core inflation will rise to 3.7%, well above the G20 average rate.
The OECD has blamed food prices and has also pointed out that high levels of wage inflation is fanning the flames of price increases. This can also date back to the government’s large public sector pay rises, and the increase in the national minimum wage. Although the UK is set to have the second fastest growth rate in the G7 this year, growth has faltered in the second half of the year, and the OECD slashed its forecast for 2026 to a mere 1%, saying that fiscal tightening along with trade tariffs will weigh on the UK economy.
The OECD also urged the chancellor to maintain fiscal headroom to better react to any future shocks, through medium term ‘budgetary adjustment paths’ i.e., spending cuts. The private sector is hoping that Rachel Reeves will listen.
Q: Is the UK at risk of stagflation?
The OECD replies that this is not its working assumption.
It points out that growth is expected to pick up this year, and be around potential, while inflation is expected to come down.
OECD secretary-general Mathias Cormann then warns that an extended trade war will have no winners, and will only have losers
Q: Which countries will be most affected by US tariffs?
OECD chief eonomist Álvaro Pereira says the US, Canada and Mexico are expected to be most affected by these rising trade tensions, because their economies are closely linked.
In the next few months, these countries are due to engage in “important dialogue”, Pereira says, adding it is important that this leads to greater engagement and reduces trade barriers.
Q: Why has the OECD raised its inflation forecast for Australia?
OECD chief economist Álvaro Pereira says it’s only a small uptick, and not a big concern as Australia’s growth is expected to pick up too.
The OECD are now taking questions about their latest economic outlook.
Q: How can Europe close the competitiveness gap with the US?
OECD secretary-general Mathias Cormann says Europe should lift investment, saying higher investment leads to higher productivity growth.
This would also help Europe to benefit from the artificial intelligence boom.
Updated
OECD's UK growth forecast: political reaction
Chancellor Rachel Reeves says there is “more to do” to improve the UK economy, after the OECD forecast it woud grow more slowly than the US, Canada and Germany next year:
“These figures confirm that the British economy is stronger than forecast – it has been the fastest growing of any G7 economy in the first half of the year.
“But I know there is more to do to build an economy that works for working people – and rewards working people. That is what I’m determined we deliver through our Plan for Change.”
Conservative party leader Kemi Badenoch, though, has blamed the Labour government for driving up inflation, saying:
The OECD report is a damning verdict on Starmer’s weak economic management. Growth is shrinking, inflation highest in the G7 - all driven by Labour’s tax hikes. Britain needs strong leadership and a clear plan.
Only the Conservatives will cut spending and live within our means.
The OECD report is a damning verdict on Starmer's weak economic management. Growth is shrinking, inflation highest in the G7 - all driven by Labour’s tax hikes.
— Kemi Badenoch (@KemiBadenoch) September 23, 2025
Britain needs strong leadership and a clear plan. Only the Conservatives will cut spending and live within our means. https://t.co/EsKhe7OU5x pic.twitter.com/oivlrSrg9D
Here are some charts illustrating the risks to the economy cited by the OECD this morning:
The OECD singles out four risks to the global economic outlook – from rising borrowing costs to food inflation.
OECD chief economist Álvaro Pereira tells reporters that long-term fiscal risks have risen, leading to higher long-term bond yields.
He also warns that elevated asset valuations pose a risk, citing the jump in US tech stocks, bitcoin and gold.
The cost of living is another threat; Pereira explains that food inflation is driving goods inflation higher.
Fourthly, he warns of “refinancing risks” as a large amount of debt matures in the next few years.
The OECD are also forecasting that the UK will be hit by the highest inflation in the G7 this year, the Financial Times reports, as the country absorbs the impact of higher payroll taxes, an increase in the minimum wage and rises in regulated prices.
The FT adds:
Consumer prices will rise 3.5 per cent in 2025, up from 2.5 per cent last year, and remain well above the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target in 2026, the Paris-based organisation said on Tuesday.
OECD: Full impact of tariffs yet to be felt
The OECD’s secretary-general Mathias Cormann, is explaining why it expects growth to slow (see 10.00am).
Cormann is telling a press conference that the global economy has remained resilient through first half of 2025, with strong growth in several emerging markets including Brazil.
But looking ahead, trade flows and several high-frequency indicators point to slowing momentum, he says.
Cormann points to the US trade war, pointing out that the average tariff rate on imports into America is estimated to be 19.5%, higher than at any time since the mid-1930s.
The full effect of the trade war will be clearer as firms run down their inventories, and as higher tariffs continue to be implemented, he explains.
He also points to signs of slowdown in some economies, which is why growth is forecast to 3.2% from 3.3% in 2024.
Cormann then calls for “constructive dialogue between countries”, saying that well functioning open markets will lead to higher living standards.
At the same time, countrie should also tackle genuine concerns about trade amd economic security.
The OECD’s “strong advice” is for all countries to work together to make our international trade relatinshps function better.
It also says:
central banks should remain vigilent due to high levels of uncertainty.
governments should display fiscal discipline…
… and also implement ambitious structural reforms
OECD: UK to fall down G7 growth table in 2026
The UK economy is expected to slide down the G7 growth league table next year.
The OECD sticking with its forecast that UK economic growth will slow to 1% in 2026. That would put it in the midtable for advanced economic growth next year, behind the US (+1.5%), Canada (+1.2%) and Germany (+1.1%).
The better news for the UK government is that the OECD has revised up its forecast for UK growth this year, from 1.3% to 1.4%. That would be the second-fastest G7 member, behind the US (+1.8%).
OECD: US tariffs to slow global growth
Newsflash: The OECD is warning that growth in the world’s economy will noticeably weaken over the rest of the year.
In its latest economic outlook, the Paris-based thinktank says higher US tariffs will dampen global trade and investment.
Global growth is forecast to decrease from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025, and 2.9% in 2026.
However, 2025’s figure is 0.3 percentage points higher than the OECD’s previous forecast set out in June.
"The economy is faltering"
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, says today’s UK PMI survey showing Britain’s economy is slowing should set alarm bells ringing.
Williamson explains:
“September’s flash UK PMI survey brought a litany of worrying news including weakening growth, slumping overseas trade, worsening business confidence and further steep job losses.
The only good news is perhaps that, just as the Bank of England grows increasingly worried about persistently elevated inflation, the PMI indicated that price pressures have moderated in September. Companies reported one of the smallest increases in prices charged for goods and services seen since the pandemic.
With the weakening of business activity growth to a rate consistent with the economy almost stalling, and around 50,000 job losses being signalled by the PMI again in the three months to September, alarm bells should be ringing that the economy is faltering, which could help shift the policy debate at the Bank of England back towards a more dovish stance.
However, amid talk of further tax rises being needed in the Budget later this year, it’s not surprising to see that business expectations have worsened again in September, and in the absence of an improvement in confidence, it’s unlikely that the economy will make any strong gains in the months ahead irrespective of the outlook for interest rates.”
UK private sector growth hits four-month low
Newsflash: growth across the UK economy has slowed this month, to a four month low.
Data provider S&P Global has reported that UK private sector output is expanding at the slowest pace since May this month.
Its ‘flash’ survey of purchasing managers at British companies has found that growth is slowing in September, which is blamed on weak client confidence and heightened political and economic uncertainty.
The report also shows that UK manufacturing output is shrinking at the fastest pace in six months, due to weakening order books – partly due to the JLR hack that has frozen its factories since the start of the month.
S&P Global explains:
The latest decline in manufacturing output was the fastest since March, with survey respondents mostly citing weak order books from both domestic and export markets.
There were also some specific mentions of lower manufacturing output across the automotive supply chain as a result of plant stoppages at Jaguar Land Rover.
Updated
EU and Indonesia sign free trade deal
Business leaders have welcomed the new trade deal between the EU and Indonesia hailing, saying “diversification is more urgent than ever” in “light of new risks” to EU economies but it has been criticised by environment groups.
The Indonesia-European Union Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) was sealed on Tuesday after nine years of talks.
The top commodities exported from the Indonesian market including palm oil as well as fishery and textile products.
The deal removes import duties on 98.5% of EU goods to Indonesia while Indonesian goods will enjoy zero tariffs in 90% of EU market with barriers remaining for palm oil.
The EU is hoping to seal deals with Thailand, Philippines later this year with hopes of a deal with India last week setback by its participation in Russian military exercises last week.
Germany’s confederation of businesses, BDI, said EU, US and China remain “indispensable”, but countries in south east Asia are “gaining considerable strategic importance” in the wake of Donald Trump’s tariff wars, the confederation of Germany industries.
Environment campaigners condemned the deal saying they, and civil society, were “shut out” of negotiations.
Nithi Nesadurai, director and regional coordinator of Climate Action Network in south east Asia, said the deal “props up polluting industries while deepening social and environmental crises, especially for the most marginalised communities”.
Over in the eurozone, business activity is growing at its fastest pace in 16 months.
The latest poll of purchasing managers across Europe shows that business activity continued to rise in the Eurozone during September. Howwever, new orders stagnated after briefly expanding in August.
Data provider S&P Global reports that export orders are falling again, by the most in six months, explaining:
The overall increase in business activity was recorded in spite of a stable picture for new orders. New business was unchanged in September, following a first rise in 15 months during August.
A slight rise in services new business was cancelled out by a renewed fall in manufacturing new orders, which decreased to the largest degree since February. Continuing the recent trend, total new order volumes were limited by difficulties securing new business from abroad.
Its HCOB Flash Eurozone composite PMI output index, which measures activity, has risen to 51.2 from 51.0 in August.
Updated
Interest rates cut in Sweden
Sweden’s central bank has cut interest rates, and predicted that it current easing cycle may be over.
The Riksbank has lowered its policy rate by a quarter of one percentage point, to 1.75%.
It explains that while inflation is elevated now, it is expected to fall back. Economic activity is weak and the turnaround on the labour market appears to take longer, it added.
Signalling that it expects to hold borrowing costs steady, the central bank adds:
If the outlook for inflation and economic activity holds, the policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come.
However, the outlook for inflation and economic activity is uncertain, and there are factors that could lead to a different design of monetary policy going forward.
Industry minister: We wat to help JLR, and the supply chain
Industry minister Chris McDonald has insisted that the goevrnment is on the side of JLR’s suppliers.
McDonald says:
“We have two priorities, helping Jaguar Land Rover get back up and running as soon as possible and the long-term health of the supply chain.
“The Business Secretary and I are visiting JLR today to host companies in the supply chain, to listen to workers and hear how we can support them and help get production back online.
“We are acutely aware of the difficulties the stoppage is causing for those suppliers and their staff, many of whom are already taking a financial hit through no fault of their own – and we will do everything we can to reassure them that the Government is on their side.”
Updated
The extension of Jaguar Land Rover’s production freeze comes as business secretary Peter Kyle visits JLR to meet firms in its supply chain.
MPs who represent constituencies in the region have been urging the government to deliver “urgent and tangible” steps to support JLR’s suppliers, warning that the West Midlands economy and the UK’s broader automotive sector could suffer from the factory shutdown.
Unions have demanded a furlough scheme for workers who are suffering because of the shutdown.
JLR shutdown extended by another week after cyber-attack
Newsflash: Jaguar Land Rover has extended its shutdown on car production for another week, as it continues to struggle with the aftermath of a recent cyber-attack.
JLR has just annouced that it has told colleagues, suppliers and partners that it has extended the current pause in production until Wednesday 1 October.
We have made this decision to give clarity for the coming week as we build the timeline for the phased restart of our operations and continue our investigation.
Our teams continue to work around the clock alongside cybersecurity specialists, the NCSC and law enforcement to ensure we restart in a safe and secure manner.
Our focus remains on supporting our customers, suppliers, colleagues, and our retailers who remain open. We fully recognise this is a difficult time for all connected with JLR and we thank everyone for their continued support and patience.
The shutdown has reportedly led to JLR missing out on production of 1,000 cars a day, losing £72m each day in sales.
Since the cyber-attack, which was reported at the start of this month, thousands of JLR production workers have been told not to come in to work, and reports suggest a number of the company’s suppliers have also had to tell their staff to stay at home.
A week ago, JLR had extended the shutdown until tomorrow, but today’s statement extends the disruption by another seven days. There have been reports, though, that car production may not resume until November.
The gold price is benefitting from the markets’ understanding that there are “no risk-free paths” anymore, says Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.
Innes writes that the Federal Reserve (America’s central bank) does its best to balancing employment and prices while “juggling the torches of leverage, credit, and liquidity”, but history shows that it eventually hits problems:
The Greenspan era gave us the dotcom bubble, Bernanke the housing inferno, and Powell a decade of money-press confetti. Each time, the Fed “fixes” things not by truly securing the system, but by fiddling with the bolts—tightening a notch here, loosening a notch there—but eventually the whole machine rattles itself apart again.
In that stop-start circus, gold has been the one constant—the timepiece that keeps ticking when the clocks of equities and bonds stop. Since 2000, the S&P has returned 730%, while the Nasdaq has returned 800%. Gold has returned 1,280%.
Innes dubs gold a “lifeboat bolted to the deck”, adding:
Does this mean gold is riskless? Hardly. Like every asset, it climbs walls of worry and stumbles down staircases of fear. But unlike equities, its value doesn’t depend on tomorrow’s earnings whisper or the next policy pivot. It depends only on the persistence of human doubt. And doubt, as history shows, never goes out of style.
Athough gold mining can be lucrative, it can also be dangerous.
And sadly, Caledonia Mining Corporation has told the City this morning that one of its employees has died following an accident at its Blanket Mine in Zimbabwe.
The accident was related to secondary blasting (where blocks of rock are broken down into more manageable sizes).
Caledonia says:
The Company’s immediate priority is to ensure the safety and well-being of all individuals involved and to conduct a thorough investigation into the circumstances surrounding this accident. Further details cannot be released pending the outcome of an enquiry into this accident by the relevant authorities.
Caledonia expresses its condolences to the family and colleagues of the deceased.
Here’s a chart showing how much gold has risen, or fallen, each year since the late 1960s, in dollars.
Gold on track for best year since Iranian Revolution
This morning’s gains mean gold is still on track for its best year since 1979.
Gold has risen from $2,626 per ounce at the start of January to $3,759 per ounce (a new record) today, a gain of 43%.
That’s beats 2024, when it rose by 27%.
But it needs to rise rather higher to beat 1979, when the gold price more than doubled – from $226 to $512 per ounce – during a sharp bout of global inflation and a weakening dollar.
Jim Reid, market strategist at Deutshe Bank, told clients this morning:
The other asset class to reach yet more record highs was gold, which rose +1.67% to $3,747/oz and now up more than +42% on a YTD basis. So that now leaves gold prices well on track for their strongest annual performance since 1979, when prices surged +127% against the backdrop of the oil crisis after the Iranian Revolution, which caused a fresh surge for inflation and led investors to seek out gold as a hedge against that.
In real terms gold prices didn’t actually cross the highs seen around this time until earlier this month some 45 years later.
Gold is up an incredible 40% in 2025, the best year since 1979.
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) September 22, 2025
It was up a record 133% that year though. pic.twitter.com/GNrfHvhXE2
Introduction: Gold climbs to new record high
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
Gold keeps climbing, driven by geopolitical jitters, expectations of interest rate cuts, and anxiety that financial markets could have risen too high.
The spot price of gold has hit $3,759 per ounce this morning, a new record. It has gained 9% so far this month, and a blistering 43% since the start of this year.
Another day, another gold record.#gold #markets #economy #markets #investing #investors pic.twitter.com/yCVB01LhCC
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) September 22, 2025
Gold is benefiting from its traditional role as a safe-haven asset – and there’s plenty for investors to worry about right now, from the Ukraine war and conflict in the Middle East to fears that inflation could get out of hand again.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, says “tense geopolitical risks in Ukraine and Gaza” are helping gold extend its rally, explaining:
For Gaza, an increasing number of developed nations are recognizing the state of Palestine, straining relations with Israel and the US – the latest being France.
In Europe, meanwhile, countries close to Russia’s border worry that Moscow is testing NATO’s nerves with repeated airspace violation.
Fears that Donald Trump could undermine America’s fiscal health by driving up borrowing, and his undermining of the US Federal Reserve, are also making gold look an attractive safe place for traders.
Central banks have been piling into gold this year too, as they look to reduce their dependency on the US dollar.
Gold’s major flaw as an investment asset is that it doesn’t pay a yield (unlike cash deposits which earn income, or bonds which pay a coupon to investors). But if central banks keep cutting interest rates, that’s less of a disadvantage for gold.
Also coming up today
Donald Trump is to meet with Argentina’s president later today, over a possible financial lifeline for Javier Milei’s government, which has been battling a run on the peso.
Investors will also be keen to hear from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell this afternoon, for hints as to how quickly the Fed might keep lowering borrowing costs following last week’s rate cut.
The agenda
8.30am BST: Sweden interest rate decision
9am BST: Eurozone flash PMI for September
9.30am BST: UK flash PMI for September
10am BST: Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill at fireside chat at the Inaugural Pictet Research Institute Symposium
11am BST: CBI industrial trends
5.35pm BST: Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell speaks in New York
