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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Julia Kollewe

Gold eases from new $1,980 record as dollar lifts ahead of Fed meeting – as it happened

Spain’s stock exchange in Madrid.
Spain’s stock exchange in Madrid. Photograph: Ana Bornay/EPA

A quick note before I finally go: the chief secretary to the Treasury, Steve Barclay, has ruled out extending the UK’s furlough scheme, as demanded by Niesr, but said there could be more targeted measures, according to a news flash on Reuters.

Updated

Closing summary

Time for a quick re-cap.

The rally in precious metals has eased a bit, with spot gold easing to $1,941 an ounce, from a new all-time high of $1,980 an ounce. Silver has fallen 2.5% to $24 an ounce after hitting a seven-year high.

Wall Street fell after the opening bell, as markets awaited news on negotiations over the Republicans’ proposed $1 trillion stimulus package, and the outcome of the Fed’s policy meeting tomorrow. The Dow Jones has lost 0.7%, the S&P 500 slid 0.4% and the Nasdaq fell 0.6%.

European shares retreated just before lunchtime after earlier gains, dragged down by luxury stocks following weak results from LVMH.

In London, the FTSE 100 was flat to slightly positive, buoyed by the housebuilders, which rose on hopes that the government’s help to buy scheme will be extended beyond December. The scheme, which allows people in England to buy a home with a 5% deposit, has accounted for a large chunk of housebuilders’ sales in recent years According to the Financial Times, the government could make an announcement on Friday.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a respected UK think tank, has warned that 1.2m jobs will be lost in the UK by Christmas if the government’s furlough scheme ends in October as planned. The think tank called on the chancellor to extend the scheme until the middle of next year to save jobs, arguing this would have a similar cost as the government’s planned £1,000 bonuses to companies for every worker they bring back from furlough and keep on until January.

The International Air Transport Association, which represents the global airline industry, now predicts it will take until 2024 – a year longer than previously expected – for passenger traffic to return to pre-crisis levels. It said air cargo could partially replace lost revenues from business travel, and called for Covid-19 testing of passengers at airports, funded by governments.

That’s all from us for today. Thank for your comments. We’ll be back tomorrow. Bye for now - JK

NEWSFLASH: US consumer confidence worsened more than expected in July, according to the Conference Board.

The FTSE 100 in London has ventured into positive territory again, up 0.1% or 6.5 points at 6,110, while other European stock markets are in the red. Gains are led by the housebuilders after the Financial Times reported that the government is drawing up plans to extend the help to buy scheme beyond December.

Wall Street has opened lower, as markets awaited further news on talks over the Republicans’ proposed $1 trillion stimulus programme – and the outcome of the US Federal Reserve’s monthly policy meeting, which ends tomorrow.

  • Dow Jones down 0.2% to 26,529
  • S&P 500 down 0.16% to 3,234
  • Nasdaq down 0.26% to 10,509

This map shows the current travel restrictions around the world.

Air cargo is a brighter spot – and could help make up some of the shortfall in passenger traffic, in particular business travel, as firms have switched to home working and online conference calls, IATA said.

Updated

Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s director general and chief executive, called for Covid-19 testing at airports of passengers flying between countries with high infection rates. This should be funded by governments, and organised by airlines.

Note: Germany’s health ministry has decided to offer free Covid-19 tests to passengers arriving at German airports on a voluntary basis, and is considering making them compulsory for those returning from high-risk areas.

The UK, however, has decided to impose a two-week quarantine on people arriving in Britain from Spain, which has seen flare-ups in Covid-19 infections in some parts. This will disrupt the travel plans of thousands of British holidaymakers.

Updated

I’m on a call hosted by the International Air Transport Association, which represents the global airline industry.

Brian Pearce, IATA’s chief economist, warned that the recovery in air traffic in the second half will be slower than expected, as the opening of international borders is proceeding more slowly than the industry hoped. In June, global air traffic was down 86.5% year-on-year.

HSBC’s move comes after the recent Black Lives Matter protests in the United States and around the world. Today, a survey showed that BAME representation in the UK’s top jobs has not improved in the past few years.

The proportion of black, Asian and minority ethnic people in some of the 1,100 most powerful jobs in the UK has barely moved over the past three years, according to a study that highlights the lack of non-white representation across key roles, writes my colleague Jasper Jolly.

Only 51 out of the 1097 most powerful roles in the country are filled by non-white individuals, an increase of only 1.2%, or 15 people, since 2017, the Colour of Power survey by consultants Green Park and not-for-profit organisation Operation Black Vote said.

HSBC to 'at least double' black staff in upper ranks

Moving onto another topic..

HSBC told staff it will “at least double” the number of black staff across its upper ranks, but ...has to collect the data first, reports our banking correspondent Kalyeena Makortoff.

HSBC’s chief executive has admitted to staff that the bank’s failure to collect and publish ethnicity data has created a “feeling of mistrust” among black colleagues, and pledged to collect and release the information alongside its annual report next year.

It has also said it will work with headhunters to “engage” black and ethnically diverse candidates for leadership roles and improve their representation on shortlists in mid-career roles. It will also update its recruitment processes to reduce potential bias and “enhance” hiring strategies for its graduate programmes.

Niesr is also predicting a rise in UK unemployment to close to 10% of the workforce by the end of this year, from around 4% now, as the government’s furlough scheme ends in October. It described the decision to close the job retention scheme as a “mistake”.

Garry Young, Niesr deputy director, said:

The planned closure of the furlough seems to be a mistake, motivated by an understandable desire to limit spending. The scheme was intended by the chancellor to be a bridge through the crisis and there is a risk that it is coming to an end prematurely and this increases the probability of economic scarring.”

The scheme has been an undeniable success in terms of keeping furloughed employees attached to their jobs. The incentives offered to employers by the Job Retention Bonus look too small to be effective given the uncertainty about the economic outlook ─ a one-off payment of £1,000 per employee compared to an average wage of £530 per week.

Barry Naisbitt, Associate Research Director for Global Macroeconomics at NIESR, says:

While the economic policy responses have been swift, they have not been coordinated. It is not obvious that policies to unlock economies will be coordinated either.

Given the risk of a second wave of the virus and of long-term economic scarring, there is a compelling case for international policy coordination to ensure that public health is restored and that the benefits of a global economic recovery are widely shared.

Updated

NIESR: Global GDP to fall 5% in 2020

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, a UK think tank, has published its latest UK and global forecasts.

It forecasts that global GDP will fall by 5% this year – “a substantially larger fall” than during the financial crisis when economic output fell by 0.1%. This will take global GDP back to 2018 levels, with unemployment rising as a consequence. In late April, Niesr was predicting a 3.5% decline.

Next year, the world economy is expected to bounce back with 6.25% growth.

Even with such an increase, however, the level of GDP at the end of 2021 will be lower than had the pandemic not occurred.

The UK is forecast to shrink by 10% this year, and to stage a 6% bounceback next year.

Updated

Returning to the CBI retail sales survey, Andy Bruce, economics reporter at Reuters, has summed it up nicely:

Stock markets turn negative

The (rather muted) stock market rally has proved short-lived: the FTSE 100 in London and the Dax in Frankfurt haven moved into the red, trading down 0.19% and 0.6% respectively.

The CAC in Paris and the FTSE MiB in Milan have extended losses, and are now down 0.87% and 1.08% respectively. Of the major European stock markets, only the Ibex in Madrid is still positive (just about), up 0.1%.

Staying with retailers... Selfridges is to cut 450 jobs across its department stores, in the latest blow to UK high street retailers hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic, it emerged today.

The cuts represent 14% of its workforce and Anne Pitcher, group managing director of the luxury department store chain, said it was the “toughest decision we have ever had to take,” writes our retail correspondent Zoe Wood.

The move follows 700 job losses at upmarket rival Harrods which were announced earlier this month. At the time the Harrods chief executive, Michael Ward, blamed the cuts on social distancing and a lack of tourists visiting the UK.

Greggs, famous for its traditional and vegan sausage rolls, was more upbeat, despite posting a £65m half-year loss. Here is our full story:

Updated

The CBI surveyed 62 retail chains, as well as 55 wholesalers and 16 car retailers. Wholesalers reported the fourth consecutive month of falling sales and orders, though at a slower pace than last month. Both sales and orders are expected to worsen again next month.

Motor traders reported growth in sales in the year to July, the first increase since February, with the balance jumping to +18% from -80%, but expect a return to negative territory next month (-10%).

The CBI survey showed that shoppers bought more food and drink this month, but sales of hardware and DIY products and other things such as cards, flowers and stationery also returned to growth.

Although most other retailers – for example clothing, footwear and department stores – continued to report significant declines, in some cases falls were less severe than in recent months.

A shop on July 27, 2020 in Birmingham, United Kingdom.
A shop on July 27, 2020 in Birmingham, United Kingdom. Photograph: Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

Here are the CBI’s main findings for retailers:

  • Retail sales were broadly flat in the year to July (balance of +4%, from -37%) and are expected to dip slightly next month (-5%).
  • Orders placed on suppliers in the year to July also fell (balance of -14%, from -47%) and are expected to fall at a similar pace next month (-14%).
  • Sales were seen as normal for the time of year (balance of 0%, from -34%) and are expected to remain so in August (-2%).
  • Internet sales growth remained above the long run average (balance of +48%, from +50%) and is expected to pick up further in the year to August (+61%).

UK retail sales highest since April 2019 – CBI

NEWSFLASH: UK retail sales rose in July to its highest level in over a year, mainly because of higher grocery sales, according to a survey. Non-esssential shops were allowed to reopen from 15 June after being closed for months, since the government imposed a Covid-19 lockdown on 23 March.

The Confederation of British Industry’s monthly retail sales balance rose to +4% from -37% in June, the highest level since April 2019 – but still only signalling modest growth in sales.

The measure is a balance of those who are reporting higher sales minus those whose sales have fallen. For August, retailers are expecting a weaker performance.

CBI chief economist Rain Newton-Smith said:

It’s great to see retail sales stabilise this month, but this doesn’t tell the whole story. This crisis has created winners and losers within the retail sector and for some businesses the picture remains bleak.

The re-opening of non-essential retail was a vital step towards recovery but isn’t a cure-all. The government has provided critical support for firms and jobs throughout the crisis. But ongoing financial pressures are a major challenge for some retailers, and additional direct support to shore up cash flow, such as extension of business rates relief, should be considered.

Updated

European banks are being urged to preserve their cash for longer, amid fears that the coronavirus crisis could drag on for the rest of the year, reports our banking correspondent Kalyeena Makortoff.

The European Central Bank, which previously told banks to halt dividend payments and share buybacks until at least October, said this morning that lenders should extend that restraint until 1 January 2021.

It has also told CEOs to be “extremely moderate” with staff bonuses, consider how much variable pay could be cut or how long payment could be delayed. The ECB said banks should not try to compensate staff for those losses in other ways, and warned that the regulator would be monitoring pay levels.

The ECB said recent analysis showed that bank capital levels “could decline significantly” in a “severe” scenario.

“This updated recommendation on dividend distributions remains temporary and exceptional and is aimed at preserving banks’ capacity to absorb losses and support the economy in this environment of exceptional uncertainty.

“This uncertainty makes it difficult for banks to accurately forecast their capital positions.”

The central bank pledged to review its stance in the fourth quarter, taking into account the economic environment, stability of the financial system and reliability of capital planning.

The Bank of England, which already pushed banks to scrap payments for the entirety of 2020, said it would also carry out a review of its own policies in Q4.

The European Central Bank is seen in Frankfurt, Germany.
The European Central Bank is seen in Frankfurt, Germany. Photograph: Michael Probst/AP

Updated

Vaccine hopes lift markets

Aside from the proposed US stimulus package, hopes of some progress in efforts to find a Covid-19 vaccine have also added to the more buoyant mood in stock markets today.

Moderna, a Boston-based biotech firm, has just begun its first late-stage trial of its experimental Covid-19 vaccine, giving the first doses to participants in what will be a 30,000-person trial, it announced yesterday. It is conducting the trial in partnership with the US National Institutes of Health.

Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech also announced they were starting a late-stage trial of their vaccine.

Josh Mahony at IG says:

As Moderna heads into the third phase of their vaccine trial, it does feel as if we are entering the final stretch of a historic push for a solution to this pandemic.

While markets have been burnt by heavily manipulated announcements from pharma firms working on treatments and vaccines, the fact is that we have multiple routes to success, as Pfizer, AstraZeneca, and Moderna all push to get their vaccines across the line.

The big question for the short-term is whether the likes of the UK and US will be willing and able to extend much of the financial support provided throughout this crisis, with a failure to do so likely to spark a huge spike in unemployment as a result.

Nurse Kathe Olmstead, right, gives volunteer Melissa Harting, of Harpersville, N.Y. an injection as the world’s biggest study of a possible COVID-19 vaccine, developed by the National Institutes of Health and Moderna, gets underway.
Nurse Kathe Olmstead gives volunteer Melissa Harting, of Harpersville, N.Y. an injection as the world’s biggest study of a possible COVID-19 vaccine, developed by the National Institutes of Health and Moderna, gets underway. Photograph: Hans Pennink/AP

Housebuilders lead FTSE 100 gains

Housebuilders are leading gains in the London stock market today, with investors piling into a sector that tends to benefit in post-crisis periods.

Barratt is 4.8% ahead, Berkeley Group has added 4.4% and Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey both rose 3.2%.

The Financial Times reported that the government is working on plans to extend the Help to Buy scheme beyond its December deadline. It allows people in England to buy a new-build home with a deposit of as little as 5%; the government provides a further 20% equity loan (in London, up to 40%). The scheme, first introduced in 2013, has boosted house builders’ sales and has also been criticised for pushing house prices higher.

Joshua Mahony, senior market analyst at online trading platform IG, says:

With the recent stamp duty holiday expected to spark a resurgence in demand, speculation over the potential measures such as a help-to-buy extension adds yet another string to the bulls bow.

Fears surrounding a potential spike in bankruptcies and job losses remain an issue for banks, yet the housing sector still has the opportunity to enjoy a particularly strong period as previously hesitant movers finally take the plunge thanks to government incentives.

Alongside the stamp duty holiday, Johnson’s promise to relax planning restrictions for new builds, and invest £12bn in 180,000 affordable homes goes to highlight the boom that could be ahead for the sector.

But the stamp duty cut has only really benefited wealthier buyers in London, says the property website Zoopla.

Our economics correspondent Richard Partington writes:

In a reflection of the disproportionate benefit for wealthier buyers, the property website said that agreed house sales in the capital jumped by 27% in the first two weeks of the stamp duty holiday.

The tax, which is paid by homebuyers, was temporarily removed on properties up to £500,000 in England and Northern Ireland by Rishi Sunak as the centrepiece of his summer financial statement this month.

Designed to boost housing transactions and demand for goods and services related to moving home – such as estate agents, solicitors, removals and the building trade – the tax holiday is set to last until 31 March 2021, at a cost to the exchequer of £3.8bn.

In its monthly assessment of house prices and property sales, Zoopla said the change had less of an impact on regional housing markets than in London. “This boost to transaction volumes has not been replicated in other regions, where average property prices are lower and less responsive to stamp duty amends,” the property website said.

“While stamp duty relief will support demand in higher value markets [on property priced up to £500,00] across southern England, it is unlikely to sustain demand indefinitely into 2021,” it added.

Updated

Over in Japan, Nissan has forecast its biggest-ever annual operating loss in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Japanese carmaker, which is still reeling from the 2018 arrest and subsequent dismissal of its former boss Carlos Ghosn, expects vehicle sales to tumble by 16% and to make a loss of 470bn yen (£3.5bn) for 2020, in its second year of losses. Revenues are forecast to fall by a fifth to 7.8 trillion yen.

The entrance of a showroom of Nissan’s global headquarters in Yokohama on July 28.
The entrance of a showroom of Nissan’s global headquarters in Yokohama on July 28. Photograph: Philip Fong/AFP/Getty Images

Updated

Stocks continue to push higher, encouraged by signs of progress on the new US government stimulus package [see earlier post].

The FTSE 100 index in London is now almost 0.5% ahead at 6,134, a 29 point gain, while the Dax in Frankfurt gained 0.4% and the Ibex in Madrid added 0.76%. The CAC in Paris and the FTSE MiB in Milan slipped 0.1%.

Brent crude oil edged up 0.1% to $43.46 a barrel after yesterday’s declines, and gold is trading at $1,931, down 0.55%, after surging to a new record of $1,980.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, has looked at the moves in London:

On the UK stock market, energy and tech stocks led the way, following by a good showing from consumer cyclicals and utilities. After recently rallying amid strong precious metal prices, miner Fresnillo was the biggest FTSE 100 faller after publishing half-year results.

Shares in grocery sellers including Marks & Spencer, Morrisons and Ocado shrugged off news that Amazon Prime customers will be eligible for free grocery deliveries in London and the south east from today.

Updated

European luxury stocks hit by poor results

In London, the FTSE 100 index has pushed 0.4% higher and Germany’s Dax is 0.28% ahead, while the French and Italian indices have fallen into the red again, dragged down by poor results at luxury companies. The pan-European Stoxx 600 has edged up 0.2%.

Luxury stocks are down after results from LVMH, the world’s biggest luxury company. It said sales across Asia excluding Japan fell 13% in the second quarter, compared with the previous quarter’s 32% slump. Overall, revenues plunged 38% to €7.8bn on a like-for-like basis between April and June.

LVMH’s finance chief Jean-Jacques Guiony said:

I do not think we have ever seen such a perfectly negative alignment of planets against us.

He warned that the group’s travel retail business would suffer for several more quarters, as Chinese consumers’ spending at home could not offset their lack of spending abroad.

LVMH shares fell 4.45%, while Gucci owner Kering slipped 1.3% and France’s Hermes lost 2.1%. Moncler, which makes luxury puffer jackets, posted a first-half operating loss for the first time in its history, triggering a 4.36% fall in its share price.

A giant mockup of a suitcase outside an official retail outlet of the French luxury goods maker Louis Vuitton in Shanghai, China.
A giant mockup of a suitcase outside an official retail outlet of the French luxury goods maker Louis Vuitton in Shanghai, China. Photograph: YONHAP/EPA

Precious metals rally eases; markets await further US stimulus

The precious metals rally is running out of steam, for now. The price of spot gold has fallen 1.5% to $1,913 an ounce while spot silver has lost nearly 6% to $23.20 an ounce, after hitting a seven-year high of $26.19 an ounce.

There is some profit taking, but the dollar has also recovered some ground after hitting two-year lows.

Markets are awaiting more news on a fiscal stimulus package, after Republicans in the Senate proposed a $1 trillion coronavirus aid bill last night hammered out with the White House. It immediately drew criticism from both camps – Democrats, whose $3 trillion proposal passed the House of Representatives in May, criticised the Republican proposal as too little while some Republicans think it’s too much.

Meetings started immediately after the bill was proposed, and House speaker Nancy Pelosi (a Democrat) said:

We hope that we would be able to reach an agreement. We clearly do not have shared values. Having said that, we just want to see if we can find some common ground to go forward. But we’re not at that place yet.

She and Senate Democrat leader Chuck Schumer met for nearly two hours with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, who described it as a “good meeting”.

Senator Mitt Romney speaks during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Monday, July 27, 2020, to highlight the Republican proposal for the next coronavirus stimulus bill.
Senator Mitt Romney speaks during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Monday, July 27, 2020, to highlight the Republican proposal for the next coronavirus stimulus bill. Photograph: Susan Walsh/AP

Updated

One million jobs lost in Spain because of the coronavirus crisis – that’s a staggering number. Economists say it’s worse than during the financial crisis.

Spain's jobless rate rises to 15.3%; 1m jobs lost due to Covid-19

Spain’s unemployment rate rose to 15.3% in the second quarter, from 14.4% in the first. It’s the highest rate since the first quarter of 2018, albeit not quite as bad as expected - economists had pencilled in a rise to 16.7%.

The number of people out of work increased by 55,000 to 3.37 million, said Spain’s national statistics agency.

The jobless numbers are set to swell in coming months, with the current figures not capturing the full extent of the crisis. Workers who are in a furlough scheme are not counted as unemployed.

The statistics office also said that just over a million people lost their jobs during the quarter, but were not included in the count as they didn’t meet the technical definition, such as active job search.

Updated

Julie Palmer, partner at business advisory and restructuring firm Begbies Traynor, says:

The success of Greggs has been the envy of the high street in recent years, however, even the bakery chain hasn’t been immune to the impact of Covid-19 which has forced its stores to close and eaten away at its top line.

For Greggs, achieving rent reductions from landlords will be first on the tick list, and indeed this has been a priority for many on the high street. But once these costs have been reduced its push to return to success will begin. And given its track record of marketing & PR success with its famous vegan sausage roll, I wouldn’t be surprised to see another high profile campaign on the horizon that captures the sentiment of a nation experiencing seismic change.

Let’s have a look at today’s corporate news. Greggs, Britain’s biggest bakery chain (known for its vegan sausage roll) has warned that sales won’t get back to pre-pandemic levels for as long as physical distancing continues.

But it’s fared better than other retailers: sales are now running at 72% of the 2019 level. All of its 2,050 stores reopened by July, after being forced to close during the Covid-19 lockdown imposed on 23 March. Greggs made a £65.2m loss before tax in the first half, compared with a £36.7m profit a year ago.

People are seen outside a Greggs store.
People are seen outside a Greggs store. Photograph: Lee Smith/Reuters

Updated

And we’re off. UK and European shares have edged higher at the open.

  • UK’s FTSE 10 up 0.2%
  • Germany’s Dax up 0.4%
  • France’s CAC down 0.2%
  • Spain’s Ibex up 0.3%
  • Italy’s FTSE MiB up 0.08%

Last night Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sanchez, criticised the UK’s decision to impose a 14-day quarantine on travellers entering the UK from Spain – a popular destination for UK holidaymakers. He pointed out that much of the country had a lower infection rate than the UK.

According to the Daily Telegraph, the UK government is planning to cut quarantine periods for travellers arriving in the UK from 14 days to 10 if they test negative for coronavirus. You can read more on our UK live blog:

Introduction: Europe to open higher

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, and business.

Gold has continued its rally amid fears of a second Covid-19 wave and mounting US-China tensions. Regarded as a safe-haven investment in times of turmoil, the precious metal blasted to $1,980 an ounce, a fresh record high and not far off the $2,000 an ounce level. Is now hovering around $1,940 an ounce as some investors have cashed in their gains.

The dollar has bounced back a bit after hitting two-year lows yesterday, ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting that begins later today and wraps up tomorrow. The Fed is expected to reaffirm its super-easy policies, and might signal its willingness to tolerate higher inflation in the long run which would allow it to keep interest rates low for longer. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar rose 0.2% to 93.918 after touching a two-year low of 93.492.

European stock markets are expected to open higher after finishing in the red yesterday. Wall Street has fared better, thanks to the popularity of tech stocks such as Apple, Facebook, Twitter and Google parent Alphabet, which will report results later this week. Asian stock markets traded flat to positive.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, says:

It is hard to predict the short-term market direction in such choppy conditions. Hope for more monetary and fiscal stimulus keep investors on track for buying equities, however, the company fundamentals and the economic situation don’t improve at the desired speed.

This means that the country and company debts are exploding without a concrete positive impact on businesses and economies. And as we move forward, the margin for more stimulus tightens. When and how this would impact the market sentiment is yet to be seen.

It’s another light day on the economic data front. Spain’s unemployment rate is expected to rise to around 16.7% from 14.4%. The country has been hard hit by Covid-19 and the UK’s decision to take it off the safe-country list at the weekend has dealt it a big blow, as tourism will suffer.

The Agenda

  • 8am BST: Spain unemployment rate (forecast: 16.7%)
  • 11am BST: CBI retail sales survey (UK)
  • 3pm BST: US consumer confidence (forecast: 94.5)

Updated

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