On the surface, the Energy Ministry's reaction to a large blackout on June 1 that affected various parts of the country appeared to be appropriate and well-thought-out, as it vowed to revise certain energy plans.
Minister Siri Jirapongphan told the media the country's electricity generation capacity reserve will be increased from 15%. This suggests that electricity capacity is in dire need of a boost in terms of domestic supply after relying heavily on imported power for several years.
"We must never have another mass power outage, given the dire economic consequences," said Mr Siri.
The outage was blamed on a lightning strike on a high-voltage power transmission line from the 1,878-megawatt Hongsa Lignite coal-fired power plant in Laos.
According to media reports, the power reserve is being revised by the Energy Policy and Planning Office (Eppo). The new percentage has yet to be studied by policymakers, but the reserve will be divided by region. Regions have supply imbalances that range from 15% in the southern part of the country to upwards of 40% in central Thailand.
One policymaker linked the outage to the southern region's demand, which is a dubious claim. The official, who asked to remain anonymous, told the Bangkok Post that power in the southern region will reach a critical level after 2020, when demand will exceed local capacity.
"The situation may worsen" if the development schedules of new coal-fired power plants are further delayed.
However, there are some discrepancies. It appears the policymakers took a chance to make an impression and show that the country has reserve-related problems.
Such claims are countered by some academics who see the June 1 blackout as an isolated incident. The country is not actually short of power, as some elements may have wanted to imply. The country still has ample supply while the power reserve margin is already considered excessive.
In light of this excess supply, the rare outage was over in a short time, about 45 minutes. The energy load peaked in April at 28,338 megawatts, compared to total production of 42,499MW. The difference looms large when compared to the 15% margin set by international standards.
The June 1 blackout and the subsequent attempt to convey a false impression about energy demand is reminiscent of a similar incident in 2013 that affected most of the southern region.
That blackout sparked rumours of a conspiracy at work as it happened amid a tense confrontation between energy policymakers and the Yingluck Shinawatra government, on the one hand, who were planning to establish coal-fired power plants in Krabi and Songkhla, and local residents working in cahoots with civic groups and environmentalists, on the other. They opposed the further use of fossil fuels, seen as a major contributor to global warming.
And while the latest blackout was no fabrication, the remark by a senior energy planner of a power shortage in the south despite the excessive energy reserve margin raised similar suspicions, which appeared valid.
Meanwhile, a resolution passed by the Prayut Chan-o-cha government to suspend the controversial coal-fired power plants in the South is now being seen as a political decision.
The scandal-plagued regime cannot afford more pressure and confrontation with local residents, who earlier cried foul over the lack of transparency in handling the plant projects. Many also felt the process of inviting people to participate in the decision-making was abused to satisfy the desires of energy policymakers, who still want to promote the use of coal.
That helps explain why policymakers gave a lukewarm reaction to a proposal by local people and civic groups in Krabi after they drafted a so-called people's power plan that would see the southern province fully dependent on alternative energy, especially biomass and biogas.
Instead, the policymakers insist renewables are "unstable" despite a number of success stories in Europe which depends increasingly on environmentally friendly energy.
