Whenever USA and Germany have faced one another in a Women’s World Cup, the winner has gone on to lift the trophy.
As far as statistics go, it’s not the most ironclad – they’ve only faced one another three times in World Cups before. But given the paths both teams have taken to Tuesday night’s semi-final, and what lies ahead, that small piece of history is all the more striking.
Whoever wins the semi-final will have beaten the other highest-ranked team in the tournament and will have the best odds of winning, based on past performances. The winner will face either Japan or England, and there are plenty of reasons to think both Germany and USA can beat either of those teams. “It’s No1 and No2,” the USA forward Alex Morgan said. “It’s almost like a final in and of itself.”
Will the real USA please stand up?
The Americans are riding a high after a win over China that showed an encouraging degree of attacking flair and style. For the first time in Canada, the Americans succeeded in pressing high, winning the ball back and holding possession. They created the most chances they’ve managed all tournament.
But China are no Germany and it’s unclear whether the Americans will be able to execute that same gameplan again.
After the US tweaked their strategy against China, the midfield in particular has become something of a question mark. Because Lauren Holiday was suspended, Morgan Brian replaced her, playing a holding midfield role. That let Carli Lloyd push further into the attack and score the game-winning goal.
But having served her punishment, Holiday will be available again and during this tournament, USA coach Jill Ellis has favored a system where Holiday and Lloyd split attacking and defensive duties in the middle. Asked on Monday if she could find a way for both Lloyd and Holiday to attack, Ellis said, “I sure hope so. We’ll figure it out,” and then winked.
Ellis has never been one to reveal line-ups early and she seems to relish playing coy with reporters when she can. Despite Ellis’s preference for a Lloyd-Holiday tandem, players gushed about the changed midfield in the China game.
“I really liked getting a central midfielder a little higher up the field because in the last couple of games we’ve seen Lauren take that responsibility at times and Carli take that responsibility at times,” Morgan said. “But with Carli knowing it was her responsibility, she went and ran with it.”
On the defensive side, the Americans have not conceded for a whopping 423 straight minutes. That’s largely due to the solid backline that has carried the Americans through this World Cup, buoyed by center-backs Becky Sauerbrunn and Julie Johnston, arguably the team’s two best players.
But that has meant Hope Solo has had relatively little to do. Against a potent German side, the keeper will likely need to step up for the first time since USA’s opening game, when she made two brilliant saves to keep Australia at bay.
“It’s not what Germany is going to bring because they are going to bring it,” Solo said. “I could talk all day about the strengths that they bring, but it’s all about how we play. I think we learned that from our last game [against] China. If we play our game, it doesn’t matter who we play.”
Can Germany keep holding on?
The Germany coach Silvia Neid didn’t mince her words when asked about the teams’ respective world rankings. “I know the US would like to be No1, but we are still No1 and we look forward to showing tomorrow that it’s our position to keep,” she said.
If there is a favorite in this top-of-the-world clash, it has to be Germany.
The Germans boast the two top goalscorers of the tournament in Celia Sasic and Anja Mittag. In attack, Germany have dominated for the entire World Cup: they have scored 20 goals so far (USA have managed just seven, although the Americans had far tougher opponents in the group stage). If that’s not enough to terrify US fans, Germany have had 134 goal attempts in Canada. The tournament average is 50. At the other end, their goalkeeper, Nadine Angerer, has conceded three goals in five games, and was Fifa’s 2013 World Player of the Year.
Of course, 2014’s Fifa World Player of the Year was Nadine Kessler, a crafty striker who was ruled out of the tournament through injury. That hasn’t hampered them: the Germans have proved to have perhaps the deepest squad in the tournament.
Not even a lingering injury to the brilliant youngster Dzsenifer Marozsan has been enough to cause them to stumble. Neid said on Monday that Marozsan’s status is unclear and she will wait until before kick-off before deciding whether the attacking midfielder can play.
If anything gives the Americans their opening, it’s the gruelling chess match against France that Germany had to endure to move past the quarter-final. After 120 minutes, the match ended 1-1 and Angerer made the only save in the penalty shootout to win.
France figured out how to keep Germany on their toes, using the speedy Elodie Thomis up and down the flank while Louisa Necib roamed in front of goal. The Americans have likely taken notes from France’s strategy and have joked that they hope the Germans will be tired after Friday’s extra-time showdown.
Neid admitted her side didn’t come out strong enough from the get-go against France, but intend to come out guns blazing against USA.
Asked if Germany used up all their luck against France and won’t have any left for USA, Neid smirked: “Maybe,” she said. “But that’s why we’ll have to win it on pure skill.”
