PANAJI: Even as cases appear to have plateaued in Goa for now, experts said that the third wave is inevitable, but were unsure of its impact.
Stating that vaccination would help blunt the impact of the wave, they also stressed people should not let their guard down, and that the state too shouldn’t take lightly the incidents that may lead to crowding.
“Otherwise, too, September is the month we witness a rise in flu cases,” said state epidemiologist Dr Utkarsh Betodkar. “If normal flu cases go up, Covid-19 infections also will, to some extent.”
We are continuously tracking cases and may see the third wave this or next month, though we are currently on a plateau.”
Stating that the third wave is “inevitable”, chest specialist Dr Anil Mehndiratta said that vaccination has to be expedited to cover a larger section of the population to lessen the severity of the disease. This, he said, will ensure fewer ICU admissions and fewer deaths.
As of Friday, more than seven lakh people have been vaccinated with the first dose, and over 2.88 lakh are fully vaccinated. During the peak of the second wave in May, Goa reported 66,000-plus cases and 1,481 mortalities.
“We need to set up a central oxygen facility in most hospitals to lessen the load on tertiary care hospitals,” Mehndiratta said.
Eminent pathologist Dr Eugene D’Souza said that the state can flatten the curve of the third wave but preventive health measures are the key, rather than focusing on the predominant task force. “The government needs to involve more experts in preventive social medicines and epidemiology. We need genome sequencing performed in Goa to identify variants of concern early,” he said.
Goa is yet to receive the results of the samples sent for genome sequencing to outstation laboratories over a more ago. The state sent samples every 15 days. Till the first week of last month, the directorate of health services received the results of about 120 samples — of those sent since the beginning of the second wave in March-April — with 109 showing the delta strain that caused the second wave.
“The delta-plus is a triple mutation. Most probably, it will not cause much harm. That’s why wherever the delta-plus variant has been found so far, we haven’t seen a rise in cases. It has been detected in some 15 states,” Betodkar said.
D’Souza said that active tracing of contacts to identify super-spreader events and micro-management zones to limit spread, as well as enhancing the ratio of RT-PCR tests for surveillance and stronger border testing can help blunt the impact of the third wave.
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