With the odds already heavily in favor of the Bears making the playoffs thanks to a white-knuckled 4-1 start and some of his offseason moves working out better than expected, general manager Ryan Pace might have done just enough to fend off his firing for another year.
Nobody thinks the Bears are a Super Bowl contender, but that almost certainly wasn’t the bar that chairman George McCaskey set for this season. McCaskey talked about the Super Bowl being the goal every year, but didn’t specify his expectations for Pace and coach Matt Nagy if they want to keep their jobs.
He didn’t have to. For a franchise that has gone to the playoffs just five times in this millennium — the quarterback they just beat, Tom Brady, is seeking his 18th trip in the same span — making the postseason will almost certainly be sufficient.
So for Pace, who has gotten more leeway from the Bears than a lot of teams would’ve given their general manager after missing on multiple first-round picks and going 34-46 over his first five seasons, the early returns on his offseason are promising.
Here’s how some of his moves have worked out so far:
Fixing the quarterback issue
This one has been a flop so far. While the Bears could not continue with Mitch Trubisky and that had to be a tough concession for Pace after trading up to draft him No. 2 overall, Nick Foles has not been a substantial upgrade and is not the answer for 2021.
Foles has been erratic his entire career, running the unprecedented path of winning Super Bowl MVP and being benched by the Jaguars, and his first steps with the Bears have been a continuation. As good as he looked rallying for the win in Atlanta, he has been nothing but shaky in the two games since.
Restoring the pass rush
Having an elite pass rush is Pace’s top priority, even ahead of quarterback play, and he went all out by cutting Leonard Floyd to sign Robert Quinn to a five-year, $70 million contract. More than one-quarter of the team’s payroll is invested in Quinn, Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks.
It’s no coincidence that Quinn logged his most extensive playing time of the season on Thursday and the Bears’ pass rush was at its best. NFL NextGen stats showed that they pressured Brady on 43% of his drop-backs, the most duress he has faced since 2017. Mack had six pressures and two sacks (should’ve been three) thanks in large part to Quinn playing 58% of the snaps and getting five pressures.
If those two and Hicks stay healthy, Pace hit jackpot on this one.
Revamping the tight end and safety rooms
Pace handed out tight end contracts like leaflets this offseason and ended up with Jimmy Graham, Demetrius Harris, Cole Kmet and J.P. Holtz. It cost the Bears quite a bit of cash (Graham will cost $16 million over two seasons) and collateral (they used their top draft pick on Kmet in the second round).
This renovation falls into the good-not-great category. There’s no question the Bears are far better at tight end than last season, but it’s an average crew at the moment. Graham has four touchdowns but chips in just 33.8 yards per game, Harris isn’t a receiving threat and Kmet needs time.
Pace fared slightly better at safety with the signing of Tashaun Gipson, a castoff from the Texans who replaced Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. The Bears can always go with a budget-friendly option when they’ve already got Eddie Jackson, but Gipson has made a solid contribution with 28 tackles and a game-sealing interception against the Falcons. He’s been good enough that he hasn’t missed a single defensive snap.
Stopping the ongoing kicker drama
It looked very foolish to potentially bet the season on Cairo Santos, who had a disastrous last three seasons, but Pace nailed it.
Santos’ only misses have been from 46 and 50 yards, and he drilled the game-winner against the Bucs. He has been more than fine while the Bears wait for Eddy Pineiro to return.
Meshing present and future in the draft
Drafting for the future is a hard test for a general manager with questionable job security, but Pace did a disciplined job of balancing immediate needs and drafting players that might not peak until after he’s gone.
He found immediate-impact players in cornerback Jaylon Johnson and wide receiver Darnell Mooney, and Kmet has shown all the signs that he’ll eventually be a factor. Most good tight ends need a season to acclimate to the NFL before they break through.
Johnson has had few hiccups, and opposing quarterbacks are putting up a 63.7 passer rating when they throw his way. Mooney is already even with, if not ahead of, Anthony Miller in the receiver pecking order.
