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The Independent UK
The Independent UK
World
Laura Board

Global week ahead: Post-Brexit black holes and 'Mother Merkel's' election bid

As Americans prepare for Thanksgiving, looming elections in Germany will come to the fore this week, as well as the outlook for Britain as the government hurtles towards Brexit.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel kicks off the political week on Sunday with a press conference in which she is widely expected to announce she'll stand for a fourth term in next year's federal elections. Merkel, known to grateful Syrians as 'Mother Merkel' after she agreed to take in 1 million refugees last year, has led Germany since 2005. However, in recent months she's been on the defensive as populist forces, emboldened by a refugee-related backlash, make political headway.

In Britain, the post-Brexit outlook for public finances and the economy will be laid bare in Wednesday's mini-budget, or so-called autumn statement.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond will deliver forecasts compiled by the Office for Budgetary Responsibility, which is a state agency but independent from the government. Reports suggest that the figures will reveal a £100 billion ($123.3 billion) black hole in public finances.

Nevertheless, Hammond will exercise the limited fiscal levers at his disposal to mitigate the Brexit-related fallout, with "just about managing" families predicted to be a key beneficiary. His statement will be closely watched for any sweeteners for companies to convince them to stay in the U.K. after its divorce from the EU.

On Wednesday, in the eurozone IHS Markit will deliver preliminary, or "flash," November purchasing mangers' indices for Germany, France and the eurozone as a whole.

Credit Suisse expects a flat eurozone composite PMI at 53.3, with growth in the services component offsetting a declining manufacturing index.

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