World powers see space as a future battlefield. The consequences are enormous.
The big picture: Tomorrow's war will be fought in the stars above as well as on the ground below. Preparations are happening today.
- The signs are everywhere: in launch cadence competitiveness, insatiable appetites for overhead imagery, Chinese satellite close-approaches, reported Russian development of nukes for space and the Pentagon's pursuit of a revived and rebranded Star Wars.
- "There really is a high-stakes competition unfolding in space, and we're seeing China and Russia really deploying significantly more capabilities," Susanne Hake, a Vantor executive vice president, told Axios.
- "What's notable here is the line between routine activity and nefarious behavior is getting thinner," she said. "Space has no national boundaries, right? So it's inherently a global challenge."
Driving the news: The military value of space was made clear in the briefing that followed America's capture of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro; Space Command, it was revealed, helped carve a path for troops headed into a blacked-out Caracas.
- "I think Operation Absolute Resolve is a perfect example of what modern, integrated U.S. warfare looks like," Kari Bingen at the Center for Strategic and International Studies told Axios.
- "Just like we've seen — whether it's Israel-Gaza, Israel-Iran, Ukraine-Russia — you want to be able to take out the other guy's eyes and ears and ability to communicate."
The intrigue: The Trump administration has expressed interest in both the exploration and weaponization of space, which is governed by a cocktail of agreements, conventions, resolutions and treaties.
- In less than six years, President Trump has energized and complicated this international dynamic.
- In his first term, he springboarded the Space Force, which recently began talking plainly about weapons in space.
- In his second term, he courted Elon Musk, introduced to the world the $175 billion Golden Dome, warned of progress lost to Beijing and Moscow, relocated SPACECOM headquarters to Alabama to "help America defend and dominate the high frontier" and directed the deployment of nuclear reactors on the Moon.
Zoom in: The urgency and opportunity are felt among America's industrial players.
- More than 2,400 applicants have been named, so far, to the Missile Defense Agency's Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense contract. It's worth as much as $151 billion.
- "Gen. [Chance] Saltzman has made it clear: Space is a warfighting domain," Gokul Subramanian, senior vice president of engineering at Anduril Industries, told Axios, referencing the Space Force's operations chief.
- "As our adversaries rapidly develop and field offensive space capabilities, the assumption that space is a peaceful domain no longer holds."
Threat level: Daily life counts on space. Your morning forecast. The quickest route to work. Financial transactions during lunch or dinner.
- "I don't know, on average, if people understand how dangerous their lives would be if satellite systems just blacked out," Jonathan Horowitz, a legal adviser at the International Committee of the Red Cross, told Axios.
- "As there is increased attention to space, that attention needs to account for humanitarian consequences," he said. "That can't be forgotten."
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