Time for MLS fans to start panicking?
Out in the deep, murky world of data analytics in soccer, there are several different predictive models used by analysts to determine roughly where, based on performance, teams will finish at the end of the league season. Even the most sophisticated models however tend to require a four-to-six-game sample before they can make a reasonably accurate prediction.
That’s a science-y way of saying you are now within your rights as fans of MLS to start getting a little worried/elated – within reason – over how your club is performing at the moment. Keep in mind of course that even now you’re apt to make enormous errors in judgment; at this time last season, Toronto FC were third overall in the league, LA in 10th, and New England, who would go on to become MLS Cup finalists, were fourth from bottom. Things can change; coaches will depart, player deals will be done in time for the August-October crunch period, and old-fashioned random variation – i.e. luck – will no doubt play its part.
That said, after this weekend you should feel free to sound off about your team without getting buried under a chorus of “It’s too early!”, whether you believe another loss is evidence for the objective awfulness of the Chicago Fire, or that a shutout win proves FC Dallas’ impressive defense is the real deal.
Are the Vancouver Whitecaps a contender?
It’s a safe bet that as the season progresses, the 10 teams competing in the Plinko board that is the Western Conference will soon meander their way toward their familiar homes in the standings. That means over the next few weeks, the Seattle Sounders will almost certainly improve on their 1-1-1 record, while the San Jose Earthquakes may shake their way downward to the middle of the table.
Nevertheless there is the delicious possibility that one team’s overperformance may reflect a substantial trend, and that one team’s struggles may be less ephemeral than first imagined. That’s what makes the Vancouver Whitecaps’ home game this weekend against the slightly off-kilter LA Galaxy so compelling. Bruce Arena’s Galaxy managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in a 1-0 loss against DC United at RFK Stadium last weekend, despite outshooting Ben Olsen’s side 17-6. This was after their tepid 1-1 home draw against a spirited (and prepared) Houston Dynamo. Meanwhile Vancouver have won a franchise-best three consecutive MLS matches, conceding a single goal in the process.
Still, if one were to choose between the immovable object of Vancouver’s defense, manned now by the solid pairing of Kendall Waston and Pa Modou-Kah, and the unstoppable force of LA’s impressive attack which will include key players returning from international duty like Robbie Keane and Gyasi Zardes, the Galaxy clearly have the edge. Particularly if one considers how Vancouver have gone 0-1-4 against LA in their last five meetings. Even so, this game may form a major chapter in How the MLS 2015 West Was Won.
Glimmers of hope that Orlando City is more than just MLS expansion-year fodder
Despite the conventional wisdom which holds that expansion teams are always dead certainties for the wrong half of the playoff line in MLS, there are glimmers here and there that Adrian Heath’s Orlando City may be destined for something greater. One of those came last weekend against the Montreal Impact, a two-minute sequence involving two rapid fire goals and some lovely give-and-go between the club’s star designated player Kaka and the 24-year-old Brazilian who grew up idolizing him, Pedro Ribeiro. While not exactly ‘samba football’, it made for entertaining viewing, and echoed the best of, say, Clint Dempsey and Obafemi Martins at Seattle.
The other glimmer for Orlando came at the opposite end of the pitch. Though Sean St Ledger handled the ball in the box to concede a penalty to Montreal in the early stages last weekend, OCFC’s otherwise sound five-man defense with Aurelien Collin in the center looked fairly steady throughout. Though DC United are a more challenging opponent than Montreal, even with their uneven, low-scoring start to the 2015 season, the prospect of Cyle Larin and US national team goal-scorer Brek Shea returning to play at home should give City fans hope. For Ben Olsen’s DCU, played off the park at home last weekend against LA despite Chris Pontius nabbing a 1-0 result at the death, they’ll likely hold for a better overall 90 minutes than last week.
Can Toronto FC shake-off lousy result?
Toronto FC’s 2-1 loss to Real Salt Lake at Rio Tinto last Sunday evening was hard to swallow. Despite Nick Hagglund’s disallowed goal in the 73rd minute for something vaguely resembling holding, and Jackson netting an equalizer and what seemed like a deserved point in the 88th minute of play, TFC’s old habit of conceding late goals reared its head again. Less than a minute after Toronto appeared to secure the draw, RSL’s Jordan Allen scored the winner.
Though it’s easy to put that game in the context of eight seasons of utter futility, this was nevertheless a different Toronto. Though outshot by Salt Lake, they managed more shots on target – 6 to RSL’s 5 – and earned 10 corners to RSL’s none. Toronto dominated play through much of the second half. They did all this without their regular starters Jozy Altidore and Michael Bradley, out on international duty.
Of TFC’s four remaining road games in what has been a grueling start to the 2015 season, this weekend’s date with the Chicago Fire should be a winnable match. The Fire, who have enjoyed playing Toronto in season’s past, will want to maintain momentum after a 1-0 win against the Philadelphia Union, a game in which they showed signs of life after opening the season with three losses. For Toronto FC, we’ll get some evidence over whether they have the mettle to push on after a difficult and ever-so-slightly unjust loss.
Can Portland produce results to match their style?
One could argue that Portland coming within minutes of a fourth consecutive draw last weekend was as bad as conceding yet another late goal, this time a 91st-minute winner to Vancouver Whitecap Robbie Earnshaw in a 2-1 defeat. Only four matches into the season, it’s hard to escape the sense of deja vu with the Timbers; last season they drew five and lost three of their first eight matches, a string of results that strongly contributed to their final-day playoff elimination in October.
The frustrating aspect of all this, not least for Portland coach Caleb Porter, is that the side has so far looked better than their record. Fanendo Adi is sharp in front of goal, Nat Borchers and Liam Ridgewell seem a reasonable centre-half pairing, and Diego Chara and Darlington Nagbe are both capable of technical brilliance in the centre of the pitch. Portland are good at stringing together some quality b-roll footage but can’t close out matches.
This weekend’s game against FC Dallas will present something of a sterner test, even in the fortress that is Providence Park. Dallas are 3-1-0 to start the season, with the joint-highest league goal tally of six, three from Blas Perez. Though FCD haven’t found much success in Portland in recent years, they will want to improve on last week’s draw against Seattle. No matter the opposition however, Caleb Porter needs to break the hoodoo of last year’s stutter start.
