Every spring the cream of the British three-year-olds are brought out of winter hibernation to determine if their owners’ aspirations of 2,000 Guineas glory are still realistic, or merely pipedreams.
Last week at Newmarket and Newbury some of England’s finest thoroughbred prospects made their seasonal debuts and in all three trials for the first colts’ classic the strong fancies were soundly beaten.
First up was Faydhan, an impressive winner on his only start last season. He had been the 6-1 second favourite for the Newmarket classic prior to his return in Wednesday’s European Free Handicap.
John Gosden’s promising colt was sent off the 1-2 favourite for the seven-furlong contest and at no stage did his supporters enjoy a flicker of encouragement. He trailed home third. The winner, Home Of The Brave, made every yard of the running, but connections are not even sure that he will run in the 2,000. If he did run, and win, he would be the first to complete the double since Mystiko 24 years ago – but he is as big as 33-1 to do just that.
On Thursday it was the Craven Stakes, run over the same course and distance as the Guineas and all the talk was of Richard Hannon’s Moheet, who was also unbeaten on his sole start as a juvenile.
The Craven outcome was similar to the Free Handicap’s, with the front-running Kool Kompany making every yard and backers of Moheet, the favourite, knowing their fate some way out. The winner, ridden by Richard Hughes, was Hannon’s second string in the race.
A smart colt last season, Kool Kompany looks pretty exposed at the top level and the odds about him emulating Haafhd, the last to complete the double, are as high as 25-1.
Racegoers left Newmarket more confused than before they arrived, but thankfully in recent years Newbury’s Greenham Stakes has proved a helpful barometer for the 2,000 Guineas and there were high hopes for Richard Hannon’s Ivawood, who was a strong favourite at odds of 13-8. But the son of Zebedee finished well beaten behind Muhaarar.
Frankel used the Greenham as a stepping stone to his 2,000 Guineas triumph in 2011, while 12 months ago Night Of Thunder was second to Kingman before the tables were turned over the Rowley Mile when it really mattered on the first Saturday in May.
Muhaarar is available at 20-1 to emulate Frankel, while the runner-up Estidhkaar is only 12-1 to do what Night Of Thunder did last year and go one better.
Ironically, the colt that dominates the betting, Gleneagles, did not set foot on a racecourse last week. Yet his odds contracted from 3-1 to 7-4 and, with no others really catching the eye, he could be an even warmer favourite on 2 May.
With seven of the last 10 winners of the 2,000 Guineas coming straight out of winter quarters, the importance of a warm-up before the Classic is becoming less relevant.
Aidan O’Brien has won the Newmarket showpiece six times since 1998 and each one of his victors was making its seasonal reappearance at the Suffolk course. Interestingly, one of his rare runners to have a prep run was Giant’s Causeway, the “Ironhorse”, and he met with defeat in the race.
This year the master of Ballydoyle has the first two in the betting – Gleneagles and Highland Reel, along with the unbeaten Ol’ Man River – and it is significant that the shrewdest judges of all, the bookmakers, have cut the prices of all three.
Of late the 2,000 Guineas has become a valhalla for favourite backers with three of the last four market leaders obliging, including Frankel and Camelot.
Gleneagles is likely to be a warm favourite on the day, but that is no guarantee of success, as the legions of punters who piled on to Kingman last year will testify. As great a miler as John Gosden’s colt was, he proved that an old racing adage – there is no such thing as a certainty – still rings true.
