When the New South Wales premier, Gladys Berejiklian, took the unprecedented step of announcing her cabinet in the regional town of Queanbeyan, she did so with clear intent.
Berejiklian was there to declare her beleaguered government had been reset and had turned its attention back to voters in the bush following the Orange byelection catastrophe.
The symbolism was without subtlety. But Berejiklian struggled to make herself heard through the noise. Waiting for her in the shade of the leafy Queanbeyan park were a group of protesters, furious at her government’s controversial council amalgamation policy.
Berejiklian was forced to unveil her new cabinet to the cameras with a smattering of anti-government placards hovering behind her. She looked at times flustered, unable to deliver her message with confidence.
“Guys, can you just let me finish?” she asked the protesters after one interjection.
By itself, the incident was no more than a frustrating distraction for the new premier. But it has has been mirrored time and time again in Berejiklian’s first two months in office. The premier’s attempts to reset and refresh have been rendered ineffective by the demons of the government’s past.
Any notion of a honeymoon period for Berejiklian was quickly dispelled by infighting, rampant factionalism and her own close ties to the controversial policies that precipitated Mike Baird’s plunge into unpopularity.
Now Berejiklian’s performance as leader faces its first test from the state’s voters.
On 8 April, voters will go to the polls in three byelections in North Shore, Manly and Gosford. Gosford, a marginal seat, has been all but ceded by Berejiklian.
But the contest in North Shore and Manly will be keenly watched. Both are safe Liberal seats but the hot-button issue of council mergers has created a degree of uncertainty.
While it’s unlikely the Liberals will lose either seat, poor results could set the tongues of Berejiklian’s internal opponents wagging and ramp up the pressure on the new premier.
“She needs those byelections like she needs a hole in the head,” University of Sydney political scientist Michael Hogan said. “It’s going to be difficult and council amalgamations will be an issue.”
In Manly, moderate candidate James Griffin, who was Baird’s pick, was pitted against Tony Abbott’s preferred candidate, conservative Walter Villatora. Griffin easily had the numbers at 71-37 but the result reportedly caused tensions within the party.
It was a similar story in the North Shore, where moderate Felicity Wilson, a corporate affairs director at Broadspectrum, soundly beat the right’s candidate, Tim James, a one-time chief of staff to the planning minister, Anthony Roberts.
The NSW Liberal party’s factionalism is already emerging as a major challenge for Berejiklian. The resignation of parliamentary secretary Catherine Cusack could not have made that more plain.
Cusack, furious at those who had been rewarded in Berejiklian’s cabinet reshuffle, penned a late-night email to her boss. “If you say one more time that the cabinet is based on merit, I will resign from the Liberal party,” Cusack wrote. She later stepped down as parliamentary secretary but stopped short of resigning from the party.
University of Wollongong political scientist Gregory Melleuish said it was placating the factions, rather than any specific policy, that presented the greatest challenge for the new premier.
“The NSW Liberal party is heavily factionalised, more so than any other state. You’ve got the business with Tony Abbott not getting his person up against Baird’s. You’ve got [Liberal powerbroker] Michael Photios who is very strong,” Melleuish said. “It’s a question of keeping everybody under control.”
Melleuish says the moderates are still clearly the dominant faction in NSW. But, even then, Berejiklian has faced challenges from those closer to home.
Her major sweetener for voters in Manly and the North Shore was clearly the announcement of the $3bn northern beaches tunnel on Thursday.
The project has been talked about for decades, and is desperately needed to alleviate the notorious congestion between the two regions. But, just like her announcement at Queanbeyan Park, Berejiklian was robbed of momentum.
Outgoing North Shore MP Jillian Skinner, a moderate, used the back page of her final newsletter to constituents to pre-emptively reveal the tunnel had been approved. Skinner had resigned from parliament before her likely removal from the Liberals’ health portfolio, in which she had served since 1995, after a string of controversies in NSW Health including a gas mix up at a Sydney hospital that left a baby dead.
She had threatened to walk if Berejiklian did not allow her to stay in health.
Skinner’s newsletter announcement found its way into the papers, and stories which ought to have been positive for the premier were replaced by questions about the Liberal party’s discipline. “Skinner beats Gladys Berejiklian to the tunnel,” the Australian’s headline read.
Beyond the internal problems Berejiklian must deal with, her government is still tarred with the policies Baird struggled with before her. Berejiklian offered only a partial backdown on council mergers last month, despite speculation the policy was to be dumped altogether. She has also staunchly defended unpopular policies on light rail and WestConnex.
It’s these legacies, built up over six years of power, that will make it difficult for Berejiklian to make her own mark and prove an effective premier.
“I think she should have been more determined in taking her own path. She’s tried to hang on to the sorts of policies that Baird followed, largely because she was part of the leadership team that brought them in,” Hogan said.
“There’s generally an impression over the last month or two of a government which is floundering around, not sure of what it wants to do, and hanging on to the old things because that’s all they can think of,” he said.
The only real issue that Berejiklian has staked her claim on is housing affordability. But, as others have pointed out, she offered little in the way of strong policy in the area during her time as treasurer.
Since becoming premier, she has stated her preference for supply-side measures, which, by themselves, are unlikely to curb ballooning Sydney house prices. Berejiklian will not push the federal government on negative gearing, although she is reportedly considering stamp duty exemptions for first home buyers.
So where does that leave the premier on housing? Staking a lot of political capital on a crisis that, on current form, she will struggle to solve.
“Her frontline issue of providing cheaper housing to me is cuckoo land,” Hogan said. “She’d love to be able to do something about it, but she can’t.”
Melleuish also believes Berejiklian’s comments on housing affordability were politically foolish. “What can they do, how do they solve this problem? They can tinker with taxes and so on, but when you’re looking at a million dollars [for a home], it really doesn’t make much of a difference,” he said.
Every report on increasing Sydney house prices will remind voters of an unfulfilled promise.
Berejiklian is well-regarded for her performance in opposition, in the transport portfolio, and as treasurer. But the premier’s office is a far more imposing task.
She has two years to reverse the flagging fortunes of the Baird government. April’s byelections will provide an early reflection on how far she has gone to shed her predecessor’s demons.
