Germany’s Green party is positioning itself to be the kingmaker after September’s national election with its hand strengthened by a strong showing in Sunday’s state votes.
The Greens cemented their decade-long hold on Baden-Wuerttemberg with a third straight victory in the industrial southwest and also saw the biggest gains in neighboring Rhineland-Palatinate. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, by contrast, suffered its worst ever results in both states.
A national alliance between the CDU and the Greens remains the most likely outcome of September’s vote, but Greens co-leader Annalena Baerbock is playing up the chances of an alternative coalition as well. If there’s a realistic chance that Merkel’s CDU-led bloc could be left out for the first time in 16 years, that will give the Greens more leverage when it comes to negotiating a program for governing.
“There are now many different parties that can be in government,” Baerbock said at a press conference on Monday in Berlin. “What is possible in the heartland of Germany’s industry can also be possible at a federal level.”
Sunday’s results are a sign of the long-term challenges facing Merkel’s party once the chancellor steps aside after the federal election. Both regions used to be strongholds for the CDU but support for the party has been slipping for decades and frustration over the government’s handling of the pandemic and the slow pace of vaccinations has deepened its problems.
In Baden-Wuerttemberg, the Greens — led by popular state premier Winfried Kretschmann — won 32.6%, a gain of 2.3 points, according to official preliminary results. The CDU’s support slumped by 2.9 points compared with the last election in 2016 to 24.1%.
The two parties are in coalition there, but the results could prompt the Greens to explore other alternatives, potentially setting a precedent for what could happen after September’s national vote.
The CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, lead the Greens by about 12 percentage points in national polls but those numbers mask a number of uncertainties as the parties look toward the campaign.
The CDU is yet to decide on its candidate for chancellor and its longtime coalition partner, the Social Democrats, have seen support slump and have indicated they won’t support another CDU-led administration. That leaves the Greens as the CDU’s most likely partner, but the Greens could have other options for forming a majority if the declines suffered by the CDU in Baden-Wuerttemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate were replicated on a national level.
The SPD would consider working as a junior partner in a government with the Greens, Social Democrats Co-Leader Saskia Esken said Monday on ARD television.
“We don’t rule anything out, this is not what this is about,” she said, adding that Merkel’s junior coalition partner is still hopeful of claiming the chancellery itself despite its trailing poll numbers. “A good victory means that we will be able to take the formation of a government into our own hands.”
The SPD is the only major party to name a chancellor candidate. Finance Minister Olaf Scholz was out of the gates early in order to help the party make up lost ground after years suffering in Merkel’s shadow.
In Rhineland-Palatinate, The Social Democrats got 35.7% of the vote, defending their position as the state’s strongest party despite losing 0.5 points. The Greens climbed 4 points to 9.3%, with the CDU shedding 4.1 points to 27.7%.
