Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Politics
Jon Henley, European affairs correspondent

German elections 2017: Angela Merkel wins fourth term but AfD makes gains – as it happened

Angela Merkel casts her vote during the German federal elections.
Angela Merkel casts her vote during the German federal elections. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Here's a summary of where we are so far:

  • Angela Merkel is set for a fourth term as Germany’s chancellor after her centre right CDU/CSU won a projected 33% of the vote in federal elections, making it the largest party in the Bundestag with an estimated 218 seats.
  • The Christian Democrats’ score, sharply down on the 41% of the vote it collected in the previous 2013 elections, was widely seen as disappointing and is likely to leave Merkel diminished on the domestic political stage.
  • Her main rivals (and outgoing coalition partners), Martin Schulz’s Social Democrat SPD, crashed to just over 20% and a projected 138 seats. Within an hour of the first exit poll, Schulz confirmed statements by other senior party figures that the SPD would not renew its “grand coalition” with the CDU but head into opposition.
  • The far-right, anti-immigration AfD made a historic breakthrough, winning 13.5% of the vote and a projected 87 seats and becoming the first overtly nationalist party to sit in the Bundestag in 60 years. The party’s performance marks a major shift in Germany’s postwar politics that is likely to produce a very different tone and dynamic inside the Bundestag.
  • The SPD’s decision to become the official parliamentary opposition leaves the only feasible coalition for Merkel a three-party tie up between the CDU/CSU, the pro-business FDP party who scored 10%, and the Greens, who won 9%: the so-called black-yellow-green Jamaica coalition, which has worked at state level but never been tried in federal government. This could prove tricky to negotiate.
  • Merkel said in her post-election speech that the CDU had hoped for a better result but had faced – referring to the 2015 migrant crisis – an “extraordinary challenge” and had still managed to remain Germany’s largest party. She pledged to listen to AfD voters and win back those she could with “good politics”.
  • The AfD promised “constructive opposition” in parliament but the Greens have already complained that “Nazis have returned to parliament”.
  • During the traditional televised leaders’ debate, Schulz said the EU and the new German government should “not cede anything” to Britain over Brexit, including the two-year transition period Theresa May said she wants, and the FDP’s Christian Lindner dealt a blow to French president Emmanuel Macron’s hopes for eurozone reform, confirming that the party was opposed to fiscal transfers within the zone.

Updated

This is important for French president Emmanuel Macron’s hopes for eurozone reform, including a eurozone budget, finance minister and transfers: the pro-business FDP party, Merkel’s likely coalition partner along with the Greens, will not play ball.

Schulz says new government must not give ground to UK over Brexit

SPD leader Martin Schulz has said the EU Germany’s new government – of which, at present, he does not intend to be a part – “must not cede any more ground to Britain” in the Brexit negotiations and should not allow the two-year transition period Theresa may said she wanted in her Florence speech on Friday.

“Theresa May is gambling in these talks in an attempt to strengthen her domestic political position,” the SDP leader said. “We cannot give ground. The EU is a community of law and it has certain rules that must be observed.”

Concluding the debate, Merkel, asked whether she thought there would be a coalition by Christmas, said: “I’m always confident.”

The traditional post-election party leaders’ debate – the so-called “Elephant Round” – is underway on German television (Deutsche Welle has it with English interpretation here). Some choice quotes:

Party leaders, Katja Kipping, Joerg Meuthen, Joachim Herrmann, Chancellor Angela Merkel, TV host Rainald Becker, host Peter Frey, Martin Schulz, Christian Lindner and Katrin Goering-Eckardt attend a TV chat show in Berlin
Party leaders, Katja Kipping, Joerg Meuthen, Joachim Herrmann, Chancellor Angela Merkel, TV host Rainald Becker, host Peter Frey, Martin Schulz, Christian Lindner and Katrin Goering-Eckardt attend a TV chat show in Berlin Photograph: POOL/Reuters

Updated

Major Jewish groups have expressed alarm and dismay at the performance of the far-right, anti-immigration AfD.

Josef Schuster of Germany’s Central Jewish Council, said the party “tolerates far-right thoughts and agitates against minorities”, adding that he expected Germany’s other parties to “reveal the true face of the AfD and unmask their empty, populist promises.”

The head of the World Jewish Congress, Ronald Lauder, called Merkel a “true friend of Israel and the Jewish people” and denounced the AfD as “a disgraceful reactionary movement which recalls the worst of Germany’s past”.

One of the AfD’s lead candidates, Alexander Gauland, said last week that no other country has faced up to past crimes the way Germany has and the Nazi years “don’t affect our identity anymore.”

Demonstrators hold a poster reading “Death to fascism” during a protest against the anti-immigration party Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) after German general election (Bundestagswahl) in Berlin
Demonstrators hold a poster reading “Death to fascism” during a protest against the anti-immigration party Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) after German general election (Bundestagswahl) in Berlin Photograph: Wolfgang Rattay/Reuters

Updated

German voters have been sharing their reaction to the AfD’s result via The Guardian’s online callout:

Raphael, 19, student, Green party voter:

I’m certain that a big factor in the support for AfD was the stream of refugees coming to our country. I think that it’s a mix of that, the general protest against the establishment as it is seen everywhere and fears about the future and identity of our country - justified or not. We need to modernise our economy and education system. At the same time we have to address the tensions in our society by fighting inequality.

Simon, 23, SPD voter:

AfD supporters held their views long before the refugee crisis and maybe we just have to accept that they won’t go away. Surprisingly, the AfD has many supporters in the upper and middle classes and they probably like their hardcore neoliberal programme as much as their inflammatory rhetoric. But the left has certainly failed to convince people that political and economic issues lay at the heart of the problem and not the refugees.

Monika, 67, AfD voter:

I voted for the AfD because I wanted a real change in policy. The dictatorship of Angela Merkel must come to an end, definitely. The German culture is threatened by the many refugees and migrants who want to stay here. It can’t go on like that, definitely.


Magali, 40, SPD voter:

I feel deeply ashamed that a rightwing party will now sit in our parliament, 72 years after the Nazis destroyed Europe and killed millions of people. It seems that a lot of Germans are racist and blame everything on foreigners. We’re a rich country and able to help refugees. AfD voters want to turn back the clocks, they’re full of hate against everything that’s different.

Here’s how to contribute if you would like to tell us your views:

Updated

Turnout was up on the previous election, public broadcaster ZDF reports: from 71.5% to 76.5%. And here’s the broadcaster’s latest projection for the number of seats each party will hold in the Bundestag:

CDU/CSU: 218

SPD: 138

Left: 60

Greens: 60

FDP: 68

AfD: 87

More evidence that the 2015-2016 migration crisis, and Angela Merkel’s decision to open Germany’s borders to tens of thousands of refugees, played a part in the AfD’s sharply increased vote share.

Merkel conceded this in her post election speech to party supporters, saying it was clear security mattered as much to people as prosperity.

FILE- Newly arrived immigrants are kept behind a cordon as the wait to be let into a pre-register site to allow them to be bussed to a newly opened asylum seeker registration centre at the Office of Health and Social Affairs LAGESO, October 15, 2015 in Berlin.
FILE- Newly arrived immigrants are kept behind a cordon as the wait to be let into a pre-register site to allow them to be bussed to a newly opened asylum seeker registration centre at the Office of Health and Social Affairs LAGESO, October 15, 2015 in Berlin. Photograph: Odd Andersen/AFP/Getty Images

Updated

A number of commentators are warning about the difficulty of negotiating a “Jamaica” coalition, mainly because of the incompatible positions of the Greens and the CDU’s sister party, the Bavarian CSU.

Mathieu von Rohr of Der Spiegel reckons that if talks don’t work out, Germany could be heading for new elections ...

The AfD has always scored better in former east Germany than in the west, but it seems to have done particularly well in these elections, says Guardian Berlin correspondent Kate Connolly:

Former Swedish prime minister Carl Bildt makes the same point:

The latest updated projections from national broadcaster ARD look like this:

AfD promises "constructive opposition"; Greens attack "Nazis in parliament"

The co-leader of the nativist, anti-immigration AfD has said the party will provide “constructive opposition” when it enters the Bundestag for the first time.

Alice Weidel told supporters that “millions of voters have entrusted us with the task of constructive opposition work in parliament.”

But other parties in parliament have sworn not to work with the AfD. The Greens, potential partners in a new coalition government, have been particularly outspoken, with co-leaders Katrin Göring-Eckardt and Cem Ozdemir telling supporters there were “again Nazis in parliament”.

Göring-Eckardt told a cheering crowd at the party’s post-election gathering: “We will not let one single attack on German democracy stand.”

Alice Weidel, co-top candidate for the general elections of the German right-wing populist party ‘Alternative for Germany’ (AfD) speaks to journalists and supporters at a night club where right-wing populist party AfD holds their election event in Berlin
Alice Weidel, co-top candidate for the general elections of the German right-wing populist party ‘Alternative for Germany’ (AfD) speaks to journalists and supporters at a night club where right-wing populist party AfD holds their election event in Berlin Photograph: Christian Bruna/EPA

Updated

Angela Merkel’s favoured coalition would have been with the free-market, pro-business Liberals of the FDP – a return to the “Black-Yellow coalition” that ruled Germany for 16 years under Helmut Kohl.

But the CDU’s poor showing means that is now out of the question. The chancellor will now have to resort to a “Jamaica” coalition – named after the black, yellow and green of the Jamaican flag, the colours respectively of the CDU, FDP and Greens.

This has worked at municipal and state level, but would demand huge concessions from the Greens nationally. At the LSE’s Europp blog, Julian Göpffarth takes a look at the three parties’ programmes and considers whether they can realistically work together. He concludes that much will depend on the attitude of the Green’s conservative or “Realo” wing:

Whether the Greens are ready to look past the core issues of their manifesto and attempt a Jamaica coalition depends on the influence of the ‘Realo’ wing. If these voices within the party take a lead over the negotiations, both a Jamaica or even a CDU-Green coalition could be possible. But even if Merkel is said to be open to a collaboration with the Greens, it is hard to imagine the CSU, the CDU’s right populist sister party from Bavaria, and the ecological Greens working in one government. But who knows? The option of power might be more tempting than four more years in opposition.

Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s far right Front National, has tweeted her congratulations to the AfD, now looking on course for between 80 and 90 seats in parliament:

This last parliamentary term was the last without the FDP in the federal parliament. The FDP always had and still has a place in the centre of our society. The liberal spirit is the clearest opposite to the far-right.

Our comeback is an encouraging message. A new start has proved possible after an earlier failure. Our new chance comes with a big responsibility – which we are ready to face.

Christian Lindner, lead candidate of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), waves to supporters after initial results give the party a 4th place finish with 10,5% of the vote following German federal elections in Berlin.
Christian Lindner, lead candidate of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), waves to supporters after initial results give the party a 4th place finish with 10,5% of the vote following German federal elections in Berlin. Photograph: Jens Schlueter/Getty Images

Updated

Merkel speaks of "extraordinary challenge"; says wants to win back AfD voters

The CDU would have hoped for better result, but we mustn’t forget – looking back at an extraordinary challenge – that we nevertheless achieved our strategic objectives: we are the strongest party. We have mandate to form the new government and we will form the new government

We have had 12 years of governmental responsibility and it was not a foregone conclusion that we would be largest party again. But this was also an election that saw the arrival in parliament of the AfD.

We will conduct a very thorough analysis; we want to regain those voters who voted for the AfD, to discover their concerns and worries ... We want to win back the AfD voters above all through good politics.

We need to work now for a just and a free country. That means we need to bring together all of the EU countries to fight against the causes of migration and to fight illegal immigration. It is clear that the topic of security is as much a worry for people as the topic of prosperity.

However, we have a mandate to assume responsibility – and we will now assume it now, almly with our partners.

Angela Merkel gives a statement on the parliament election at the headquarters of the Christian Democratic Union CDU in Berlin
Angela Merkel gives a statement on the parliament election at the headquarters of the Christian Democratic Union CDU in Berlin Photograph: Matthias Schrader/AP

Updated

Sean Clarke on the Guardian’s graphics team shows how only a grand coalition or a so called “Jamaica” coalition are viable.

With the SPD ruling out any cooperation with the CDU in this parliament, that leaves a coalition between Merkel’s CDU, the pro-business FDP and the Green party as the only option:

The SPD lead candidate, Martin Schulz, has confirmed the party will not renew its grand coalition with the CDU, which clearly hit the party’s support with its base:

With tonight’s result, co-operation between CDU and the SPD is coming to end ... We were all in agreement to become the biggest opposition party.

Our next task is to close ranks work shoulder to shoulder again as a party. We will discuss the election results without ifs and buts, and take our time.

This is another bitter hour in our history, but social democracy has survived and managed to show its strength – even when confronted with an extreme far-right party showing its ugly face.

Updated

Simon Usherwood, a European politics specalist at the university of Surrey, has a short Twitter thread on the impact of the result on Brexit.

In short, not a lot – a political upheaval in Germany will not translate into any major shift in the country’s policy on the UK leaving the EU:

SPD says it will go into opposition

Angela Merkel will now have to form a coalition government - an arduous process that could take months – after sliding to about 32% of the vote from 41.5% in in 2013.

The SPD’s 20% score is a new new post-war low and the party has now formally ruled out the possibility of a new “grand coalition” with the Christian Democrats: deputy leader Manuela Schwesig has said the party will go into opposition.

An alternative coalition for Merkel would be a three-way tie-up with the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) and the ecologist Greens, a combination that has not yet been tested at national level known as the “Jamaica” option – the three parties’ colours are those of the black-gold-green Jamaica national flag.

Both the FDP and the environmentalist Greens have played down the prospect of a Jamaica coalition, but as they have been out of government for four and 12 years respectively, they may be lured into an alliance by the prospect of power.

The SPD’s decision also means the AfD will not be the official party of opposition in the Bundestag.

Social Democrat (SPD) and chancellor candidate Martin Schulz speaks after initial results gave the party 20.4% of the vote, giving it a second place finish, in German federal elections in Berlin.
Social Democrat (SPD) and chancellor candidate Martin Schulz speaks after initial results gave the party 20.4% of the vote, giving it a second place finish, in German federal elections in Berlin. Photograph: Maja Hitij/Getty Images

Updated

My colleague Philip Oltermann is at the AfD’s post-election gathering, a night club in the east of the German capital, where the scene is understandably one of celebration. Alexander Gauland is one of the far-right party’s two top candidates:

Early analysis from commentators casts the result firstly as a very poor night for Angela Merkel – almost a defeat – that will leave her significantly weakened on the domestic stage. The Economist’s Jeremy Cliffe says:

But it is also disastrous performance for the Social Democrat SPD, whose projected 20% matches its lowest ever score. The Centre for European Reform’s Christian Odendahl reckons their result is so bad that it probably rules out a new “grand coalition”:

Updated

Exit poll: Merkel on course for fourth term, but big breakthrough for AfD

Angela Merkel is heading for a fourth term as Germany’s chancellor after her centre-right CDU party and its CSU sister party won 32% of the vote, initial exit polls have projected.

The estimation puts the Christian Democrats comfortably ahead of their outgoing coalition partner and main rival, the Social Democrat SPD party led by Martin Schulz, which ended a miserable campaign with just 20% – a near rout.

But as predicted, the far-right, anti-immigration AfD has spoiled the chancellor’s party, clearing the 5% parliamentary threshold for the first time in its four-year history with a score of 13%, making it the third largest party in the Bundestag and possibly the official opposition.

The smaller, pro-business FDP party, Merkel’s favoured coalition partner, looks set to return to parliament after missing out in 2013 with a share of 10%, while the Green party won 9% and the left-wing Die Linke 9%.

Supporters of the Alliance 90/The Greens party react on first exit polls in the general election in Berlin
Supporters of the Alliance 90/The Greens party react on first exit polls in the general election in Berlin Photograph: Stefanie Loos/Reuters

Updated

How does the electoral system work?

Germany’s recently amended electoral system, combining direct and proportional representation, is complex. The country’s 61.5 million voters get two votes on a single ballot paper: the first for a local representative, the second for a party.

Roughly half the Bundestag’s seats are guaranteed to go to the 299 representatives of the country’s electoral districts, each chosen by their constituents with their Erststimme, or first vote, in a straight first-past-the-post contest.

The rest are allocated according to the national vote share won by every party that clears a 5% threshold in the second vote, or Zweitstimme – which is also used to determine the overall number of seats each party winds up with: if a party scores 25% of the national vote, it must get 25% of the seats.

Sometimes parties return more Erststimme representatives than they are entitled to, according to the Zweitstimme. So to compensate, the other parties get extra seats – which means the Bundestag, theoretically made up of 598 representatives, could expand to as many as 800 (it currently has 631).

Once a governing coalition has been formed, which can take up to a month, Germany’s president (a largely ceremonial role) nominates the chancellor – usually the leader of the largest party – who is confirmed by parliament in a secret ballot.

Updated

It’s already standing room only at the far-right AfD party’s headquarters, journalists on the spot and the party itself are reporting:

Under its lead candidates Alice Weidel, a 38-year-old management consultant and Alexander Gauland, a 76-year-old German nationalist, the party has bounced form around 8% in the polls in August to between 11% and 13% last week.

Its manifesto calls for all mosques and minarets to be banned, Muslim calls to prayer to stop and and people wearing the veil to be criminalised. The AfD has also called for a change in attitude to Germany’s historic crimes in the second world war.

If polls are accurate it is expected to garner between 60 and 85 parliamentary seats.

Today’s election results are being watched intently across Europe. Germany is the continent’s largest economy and its central role in EU decision-making is difficult to exaggerate.

Contrary to many Brexit campaigners’ expectations, Merkel’s likely return as chancellor will make little difference to the terms on which the UK leaves the EU. But Greece, the EU member that has remained in the single currency thanks (some might say) to Teutonic largesse, is another matter, writes Helena Smith in Athens.

All eyes are on Berlin. The ruling Syriza party has made clear it is rooting for its comrades-in-arms, the leftwing Die Linke. But with Germany having provided most of the three emergency bailouts that have kept debt-stricken Greece afloat – and dictated the tough conditions attached to them – the real talk here in Athens is who, if anyone, will replace Herr Wolfgang Schäuble at the helm of the finance ministry.

The Syriza-led coalition is hoping to navigate Greece out of international supervision when its current €86bn bailout officially ends next summer – and, if all goes well, come to some agreement that sees its gargantuan debt load being substantially written off as well.

Who is sitting in the finance minister’s chair will be likely to play a key role in how smoothly both go (or don’t). Much will depend on the make-up of the coalition that is eventually formed and whether the small liberal FDP party is a member of it, say Greek officials – who are preparing for a long night.

Updated

The AfD is not popular everywhere. Here one Berlin resident posts a picture of a banner hanging from an apartment block in his home city today:

My colleague Philip Oltermann points out that the nativist, anti-immigrant Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party, which is set to enter the Bundestag for the first time, will not be – as many are saying – be the first far-right party to do so since the second world war.

The last overtly nationalist party in the German parliament after 1945 was the Deutsche Partei, which had a part in government from 1949 until 1960.

Recent polls have shown support for the AfD surging up to 13%, and many observers feel they may do better than that, particularly if turnout is low. This could in theory give the anti-Islam party around 70 seats in the new parliament.

No other party will work with the AfD so it stands no chance of being in government, but its arrival in the Bundestag – and in appreciable numbers – marks a major shift in the tone and dynamic of Germany’s post-war politics.

Supporters of the the German right-wing populist party ‘Alternative for Germany’ (AfD) react on the first prognosis holds their election event in Berlin, Germany
Supporters of the the German right-wing populist party ‘Alternative for Germany’ (AfD) react on the first prognosis holds their election event in Berlin, Germany Photograph: Thorsten Wagner/EPA

Updated

Sigmar Gabriel, Germany’s foreign minister, vice chancellor and a leading member of the social democrat SPD, is plainly not expecting his party to pull anything big out of the hat: “It’s not looking good,” he said earlier this afternoon.

Going into the vote the SPD, which has governed in a so-called “grand coalition” with Merkel’s CDU since 2013, was trailing up to 15 points behind its rival on around 21-22% against the Christian Democrats’ 34-37%.

The party enjoyed an early bounce following the nomination of the former European parliament president as its candidate to challenge Merkel, but that soon subsided. Judging by how it looks likely to perform, the party may well be reluctant to enter into another “grand coalition” with Merkel’s CDU.

Voter turnout by early afternoon stood at 41.1%, the Federal returning officer has said based on a survey of a representative sample of polling stations – fractionally down on the previous election in 2013, when 41.4% of eligible voters had cast their ballots by 2pm.

The figure does not include postal votes. Angela Merkelvoted shortly after 2pm at a polling station near her home in Berlin’s Mitte district with her husband, Joachim Sauer, who shielded both of them with an umbrella against the cold drizzle. The couple smiled and nodded at bystanders and reporters.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel casts her vote in German federal elections in Berlin.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel casts her vote in German federal elections in Berlin. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Welcome to the Guardian’s live coverage of Germany’s federal elections – the vote that will decide whether Angela Merkel returns as the leader of Europe’s largest economy for a fourth consecutive term.

Polls indicate there is little doubt that Merkel’s centre-right CDU and its CSU sister party are heading for a comfortable victory over their social democrat SPD rivals, and that “Mutti” – mummy – will remain chancellor.

But in a major step-change in German politics, a late polling surge by the far-right, anti-immigrant AfD party is set to see it enter the Bundestag for the first time, possibly finishing as the third largest party and forming the official opposition in the new parliament.

The performance of the pro-business FDP party, likely to return to parliament this time round after failing to clear the 5% threshold in the previous 2013 election and a potential coalition partner for Merkel, will also be closely watched.

Exit polls are expected when polls close at 6pm local time with first projected vote shares soon after.

We will be bringing you all the latest results and developments throughout the evening, plus comment, analysis and colour from the Guardian’s Berlin bureau chief Philip Oltermann and correspondent Kate Connolly.

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
Stop 'garbage juice' from turning your trash can into a maggot farm with this $1 fix
Learn how to eliminate maggots from trash cans and prevent flies from returning.
Tom’s Guide
Tom’s Guide
“If it was in that room that day, that would be between 20 and 30 million dollars easy for sure”: Guitar expert reveals the guitars that could surpass the new auction record held by David Gilmour’s Black Strat
Matthieu Lucas from Matt’s Guitar Shop in Paris gives Guitar World the lowdown on which guitars could likely break the Gilmour record one day
Guitar World
Guitar World
'Even Disney Sometimes Forgets': The Hannah Montana Special Came Together Thanks To A+ Dolly Parton Advice
How she got "The Best of Both Worlds."
Cinemablend
Cinemablend
Kids Pointed Out A 'Plot Hole' In The Parent Trap, And Now The Internet Is Arguing About Car Safety
It's not a plot hole, but it is a good point.
Cinemablend
Cinemablend
Story Behind Celia Walden's Viral 2022 Photo Explained—and Why It Struck a Nerve on Piers Morgan's Show
Piers Morgan storms off Uncensored after HSTikkyTokky shows a 2022 Instagram of Celia Walden, reigniting scrutiny of the manosphere and Morgan's persona.
International Business Times UK
International Business Times UK
Obama’s portrait was replaced by Trump’s assassination painting, but its new location is what’s setting the internet on fire
The Grand Foyer now has a new centerpiece.
We Got This Covered
We Got This Covered
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.
Download on the AppStore Get it on Google Play