WASHINGTON _ The Republican running to replace White House chief of staff Mark Meadows in Congress will be fiscally conservative, pro-Trump, anti-abortion and have a hard-line stance on immigration. Whether that Republican will be a young upstart or longtime businesswoman gets decided Tuesday in the GOP runoff for the 11th District in western North Carolina.
"Ideologically, they're carbon copies of each other but stylistically they are complete opposites," said Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University.
Real estate agent and party activist Lynda Bennett, 62, had Meadows' endorsement and support from such groups as House Freedom Action, but in a 12-candidate primary on March 3 ended up about 7 points short of the 30% needed to secure the nomination outright. That put her in a runoff with the second-place finisher, Madison Cawthorn, who got 20 percent.
Cawthorn, 24, is a real estate investor and motivational speaker who survived a near-fatal car crash and now uses a wheelchair. Campaigning during the coronavirus pandemic, he has embraced social media and set himself apart from Bennett as a youthful outsider.
Runoff turnout is expected to be low, and 30% of early voters who have cast ballots so far are from Cawthorn's home county of Henderson, according to North Carolina's elections board. Bennett's home county of Haywood lags behind.
"The curiosity right now is, are we going to have, you know, 10,000 people come out on Election Day, or we have 24,000 people coming on Election Day," Cawthorn said in an interview with CQ Roll Call.
Cawthorn was a surprise second-place finisher in the primary ahead of state Sen. Jim Davis, who got 19 percent, Cooper said.
Meadows had won the seat for four terms but announced in March he was quitting to become President Donald Trump's chief of staff. Along with Meadows, Bennett has endorsements from Trump, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan.
Meadows was accused of tipping off Bennett, a friend of his wife's, to the opening up of this recently redrawn, but likely Republican seat. Bennett announced her candidacy just hours after Meadows first shared the news of his retirement, which came about roughly 31 hours before the deadline to get on the ballot.
The businesswoman appears to have kept a lower profile, hasn't agreed to a debate, and has been holding smaller events with constituents, Cooper said.
As the pandemic raged, both candidates adapted to the changing landscape. Bennett attended events when restrictions permitted, and put out targeted digital and television ads, said Courtney Alexander, a communications consultant for the Bennett campaign.
"I think that looking at ways to be creative in campaigning, that's been something that Lynda has been focused on," she said.
Cawthorn, who turns 25 in August, turned to Facebook, holding live broadcasts where potential voters could interact with him, he said.
Since the primary, House Freedom Action and House Freedom Fund, committees aligned with the arch-conservative group Meadows once led in the House, have spent nearly $657,000 to help Bennett. Protect Freedom Political Action Committee spent $530,000 supporting Cawthorn, airing an ad saying Bennett was a "never Trumper" in 2016.
Through June 3, Bennett's campaign raised about $447,000, including $80,000 of her own money, while Cawthorn raised $563,000, including $361,000 from the candidate's personal loan.
Cawthorn's money came from a combination of funds from a stock market portfolio started at a young age, and money received in an insurance settlement after the crash, though he says much of that money went to pay significant medical bills. The ordeal dramatically changed the trajectory of his life and helped him empathize with people who feel disenfranchised, he said.
"I'm very thankful that I was in that position I had the ability to be able to loan myself that money because, again, I really believe in this cause that we're fighting for," he said.
Democratic nominee Moe Davis, a retired Air Force colonel and former chief prosecutor at Guantanamo Bay, said he is ready for the uphill battle once the GOP runoff is settled.
He sees a path to victory, and points to Democrat Heath Schuler, who held the 11th District seat before Meadows and retired when the district was redrawn to skew more Republican in 2011.
Last year, a court-ordered redistricting led to more of the liberal-leaning area of Asheville being added, but Trump would have still won the district by 17 points in 2016, according to calculations by Daily Kos Elections. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the race Solid Republican.
Davis said his ability to speak on veterans' issues and focus on improving broadband access, health care and access to education will help him win over moderate voters instead of focusing on more ideological issues such as gun and abortion rights.
"What I can do to win this district is focus on the issues that matter to a day-to-day basis," he said.
