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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
Politics
Andrew Sparrow and Claire Phipps

Election debate: reaction and analysis after Jeremy Corbyn and party leaders spar – as it happened

Party leaders clash in TV election debate – video highlights

Summary

Here is our main story about the debate.

And here is John Crace’s sketch.

That’s all from me for tonight.

Thanks for the comments.

Nigel Farage, the former Ukip leader, is claiming the audience was biased against Ukip.

He also says BBC executives should be sacked because of this although, if you watch the video of him saying this on his LBC show (instead of just listening), you might detect a smile on his face as he’s saying this that suggests (at least, it did to me) that he knows he’s not really being serious at this point.

And Ukip has put out a press notice headed: “Powerful and courageous performance by Ukip leader.” It quotes the Ukip deputy leader, Peter Whittle, saying:

It’s clear that Paul Nuttall showed a resolve, courage and leadership that has been lacking from the rest of the Westminster establishment.

Paul spoke to people in Britain who are living in the real world. Unlike the others he was honest, direct, and confident about the future of Britain.

Despite a blanket of denial from the other speakers, he was prepared to talk about the real threats faced by our society. He was prepared to call out Islamic Extremism for what it is, rather than simply restate the platitudes we are so used to. He was realistic about the impact of immigration on jobs and our public services.

The Lib Dem press statement about the debate is causing much merriment.

In the wood panelled spin room of the Cambridge Union, the first drama of the night came when Labour’s Emily Thornberry burst into an interview with Tory cabinet minister Damian Green, live on BBC News.

The work and pensions secretary was among several high profile Tories, including Brexit secretary David Davis and culture secretary Karen Bradley, who paced the room, speaking to broadcasters about Amber Rudd’s performance.

But Labour sources said Thornberry had been scheduled to be on Channel 4 News with Green, until Conservatives had told Labour they did not want a two-way debate. Stood down, Thornberry decided to take matters into her own hands and join Green’s post-debate interview live on air.

Lib Dem campaign chiefs declared themselves chuffed with Tim Farron’s performance, particularly the audience gleeful reception of his final joke - that viewers should switch off for Rudd’s statement and watch Bake Off instead. “He smashed it,” one source said.

Lib Dem president Sal Brinton said Farron had needed to make an impact, given how little he was recognised by the wider public.

However, if cheers from the crowd were anything to go by, it was Corbyn who won. Labour sources said the Labour leader had deliberately held back from criticising the prime minister too incessantly for not turning up, intending instead to focus on the message of the party’s manifesto while smaller parties tore into Rudd.

“He’s the only person in that room who could be prime minister, and so he behaved like one,” a source said.

Tory sources pointed out however that the Labour leader had not mentioned Brexit in his opening or closing statements - or in his answer about leadership. “How can you start the negotiations in 11 days time and not mention the biggest issue facing this country?” one said.

Labour admitted Corbyn had not mentioned the issue, but said that was a deliberate attempt to have broad resonance. “He said we are fighting for the many not the few, we want a Brexit for the many not the few,” the source said.

This is from the BBC’s Esther Webber.

If you’re reading this, you’re a Guardian reader, and that means you featured in tonight’s debate. Tim Farron, the Lib Dem leader, said climate change was not just a matter for “hair-shirt, muesli-eating Guardian readers”. He said:

If it is simply for hair shirt, muesli-eating Guardian readers to solve climate change, it ain’t going to solve the problem. We’re all stuffed ... we can make ourselves energy self-sufficient in renewable energy.

The BBC’s Jeremy Vine says he found this “puzzling”.

Updated

Crikey. This is just out.

BBC Debate - Verdict from the Twitter commentariat

This is what political journalists and commentators are saying about the debate.

There is no real consensus, and even those who are naming a “winner” seem to concede it was not clear-cut. On this one, it’s a case of “you pays your money ....

(Or not, in the case of the Guardian online, although please do sign up to become a member if you haven’t already.)

From Sky’s Faisal Islam

From the Sunday Times’ Tim Shipman

From ITV’s Robert Peston

From Sky’s Adam Boulton

From the Mirror’s Ben Glaze

From the Spectator’s James Forsyth

From the Guardian columnist Paul Mason

From BuzzFeed’s Marie Le Conte

From Reaction’s Iain Martin

From the Independent’s John Rentoul

From Rosa Prince, author of biographies of May and Corbyn

From the FT’s Jim Pickard

From the Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges

Here is the Labour party’s statement about the debate. This is from a spokesperson for Jeremy Corbyn.

Tonight’s debate highlighted the clear choice at this election: between a Labour party that will invest in and transform our society to build a Britain for the many, and a Conservative party that has held people back and stand only for the few.

Only Jeremy Corbyn or Theresa May will be prime minister after June 8, but tonight, in what was effectively a job interview for Number 10, only one of the two candidates bothered to turn up. Theresa May won’t even debate her opponents here in the UK, in an election she called. How on earth can she be trusted to negotiate in Europe and get the best deal for the British people?

Jeremy Corbyn clearly won the debate. He showed himself as a leader who wants to change the country for the better, to make it work for the many not just a few.

By contrast, Theresa May’s refusal to take part showed her weakness. It’s a sign of a Tory campaign which is treating the public with contempt, trying to hide from scrutiny. They showed tonight they have no answers to the challenges facing Britain and that they would make pensioners and working people worse off.

Tonight proved that Jeremy Corbyn and Labour are the only party that will build a Britain for the many not the few.

Updated

BBC Debate - Snap verdict

Like any content-rich political event – a party conference speech, a budget, a manifesto – a debate offers numerous potential “lines” and it can be hard to work out immediately which ones (if any?) have any lasting significance. And a seven-way debate, to use a technical term employed by the Sunday Times’ Tim Shipman (see 8.44pm), is a clusterfuck. There weren’t any stand-out winners, but most attention was focused on Jeremy Corbyn and he did well. His attack on Paul Nuttall over food banks was one of the highlights of the debate – he was authentic and passionate – and increasingly the CCHQ charge that he is an implausible PM seems to look less convincing.

The other main figure on the stage tonight was Amber Rudd. In a six-against-one scenario she seemed to hold up quite credibly, and she wins the message discipline prize of the night (one derided by the media, but important nonetheless) for her constant jibes about Labour’s money tree.

As for the others, Tim Farron had some of the best soundbites of the evening, and his final line about not giving Theresa May your time, because she is not giving hers to you, was one of the best lines of the evening. Caroline Lucas (predictably) and Leanne Wood (a bit less predictably) had some outstanding moments. Their two-pronged attack on Rudd, over the Tories being in coalition with Ukip (see 8.09pm), was particularly effective, and Wood came out with the best put-down of the whole evening when she depicted Nuttall as someone who would try to divorce his wife without paying: “We all know about blokes like you.” (See 8.49am.) Angus Robertson was particularly effective when it came to challenging Nuttall on migration. And even Paul Nuttall was better than he was in last week’s debate, although, as the only leave voter on the panel, it is hard to credit how he ended up representing over 50% of the country.

There may not have been a winner, but there was a loser: May herself. Long after we have all forgotten anything that was said last night, we will remember that May did not show up. Earlier I wrote that it seemed to make sense for a PM with a lead in the polls to avoid a debate like this. (See 2.57pm.) Now I am not so sure. David Cameron managed to wriggle out of one of the debates in 2015, but it went ahead without a Conservative and they called it a “challengers’ debate”, as if that was an established constitutional norm. No one particularly noticed that Cameron had stayed at home. But when Rudd tried to answer the question about leadership by praising the abilities of someone who was not even there (see 8.51pm), May’s absence was transparent – and not particularly explicable. Perhaps voters will decide they don’t mind very much. But if May’s ratings continue to slide even further, this will inevitably be seen as a contributing factor.

Updated

Closing statements

Nuttall says tonight was like Groundhog Day. Ukip will always be the outsider. But it has been proven right on Brexit, on immigration, on grammar schools, and on protecting services.

Lucas says the country stands at at crossroads. One more MP from the other parties. But more Green MPs would be transformative.

Corbyn says the real choice is between a Labour government and a Conservative one. Vote Labour for the many, not the few.

Robertson says this is about the kind of country we should be. The SNP will always work with others to make the country better.

Wood says Plaid is the only party putting Wales on the agenda. But Plaid MPs will stand up for the whole of the UK. She urges people to give them the mandate to allow them to stand up for Wales.

Farron says Rudd is coming up next. The PM could not be bothered to turn up. Bake Off is coming up next. Make yourself a brew. You are not worth her time. So don’t give her yours.

Rudd says the government needs to be at its strongest to take the UK through Brexit. Only May can do that.

And thats it.

Verdicts, reaction and a summary coming up next.

Updated

This is from the Sun’s Matt Dathan.

Robertson says May is the U-turn queen. That is not the leadership we require. He says the SNP are the third party at Westminster, and provide the real opposition, he says.

Farron says May should have turned up for the debate.

He says he grew up in Preston. He saw what it meant when people were brought up in poverty.

Rudd says she is proud to be representing the prime minister. When it is put to her that May should be here, she says Corbyn only decided to come today. She says four out of five Labour MPs voted no confidence in Corbyn.

Corbyn says 300,000 people elected him to lead his party and he is proud to lead it.

Lucas says the first rule of leadership is to show up. She says you should not call an election and then not turn up.

Question 6 - Leadership

Q: How does your leadership have the talent to take this country forward?

Corbyn says leadership is about being able to listen, not being high and mighty, being prepared to learn, and leading for everyone. It is about saying we cannot go on like this. We don’t have to have a spiv economy.

Nuttall says he has not changed his stance on anything. He says he would be strong going into the Brexit negotiations.

Wood asks Nuttall if he would refuse to pay his dues if he was going through a real divorce. Nuttall says the UK has a lot of money tied up in the EU. Wood replies:

We all know about blokes like you.

Updated

Corbyn says we should adhere to the climate change agreement. And we should press the American people and their government to adhere to it as well.

Rudd says she is “disappointed” that the Americans are pulling out of the climate change agreement.

Tell him he’s wrong, Wood says.

That is not quite how diplomacy works, says Rudd.

Question 5 - Climate change and Trump

Q: How would you deal with President Trump pulling out of the Paris climate change agreement?

Farron says there is no bigger threat to the world. This is not just an issue for hair-shirt Guardian readers.

Lucas thanks the questioner. She says the Greens have been trying to get the election to focus on climate change for six weeks with no luck.

With Trump, we should ignore him, she says. She says the move to carbon-free energy is happening anyway.

We need to see no fracking, she says.

Nuttall says Trump is doing what he set out to do.

Updated

Nuttall says he would put British lives over the rights of terrorists.

Robertson says someone asked about terrorism, and Nuttall went straight for Muslims. But it wasn’t a Muslim who killed Jo Cox. And it was not a Muslim who killed the children in Norway.

Corbyn attacks Nuttall for singling out Muslim. “You invited Hamas,” Nuttall shouts back at him.

Nuttall says we should not be afraid of calling Islamist extremism what it is - Islamist extremism.

He says people who go abroad to fight for Islamic State should not be allowed to return.

And he says that the Muslim community is not doing enough to report extremism. He says only one in eight referrals to Prevent come from Muslims.

Lucas says it it outrageous to suggest that the terrorists are representative of the Muslim community.

Why is Britain the second biggest arms dealer in the world, she asks.

Rudd says we need the right legislation to defeat terrorism. She says she is shocked that Corbyn boasted about voting against every piece of anti-terror legislation.

Corbyn says Theresa May voted with him against anti-terror legislation in 2005. And David Davis did too. He says there must be judicial oversight for these powers.

Question 4 - Security

Q: What are your priorities for making Britain a safer country and the world a safer place?

Robertson says the SNP want more police. He says it is dangerous to make an argument about safety and foreign policy. But it is right to question foreign interventions. He says the government has spent more money bombing places than rebuilding them.

Corbyn says we need more police officers. We need to do more to address cyber threats. And he says it is a mistake to leave large spaces of the world ungoverned.

Husain asks if Corbyn is saying the attack in Manchester would not have happened if it had not been for the police cuts.

Corbyn says that is not what he is saying.

Farron says Theresa May wants a blank cheque to do whatever she wants on issues like social care payments. Don’t give her that blank cheque, he says.

Husain asks about the Lib Dem policy on the NHS. He says to him the NHS is personal. His mum had ovarian cancer. It it personal to everyone else too. Have we got the best funded NHS? No, he says. He says the Lib Dems would put an extra 1p on income tax.

Rudd says the government has protected pensioners.

Corbyn and Robertson both challenge her to say they will protect the triple lock.

Rudd says they should read the manifesto.

Updated

Question 3 - Public services

Q: How can we trust you on public services? Where will the money come from?

Lucas says we could scrap Trident.

Husain turns to Rudd, and says there were no costings in the Conservative manifesto.

She says people should judge the Tories on their record.

This generates quite a lot of laughter from the audience.

Rudd turns to Brexit, and says Jeremy Corbyn would not deliver.

Corbyn says the Tory government has made choices: schools are overcrowded, hospitals are underfunded and students are saddled with debt.

Husain asks him if he is sure his plans add up. Only yesterday he could not remember the figures.

Corbyn says getting rid of tuition fees would cost £11bn. That would be money well spent.

Robertson says this debate shames us all.

There is no one watching, from Cornwall to Caithness, who does not understand the contribution of immigrants. Demonising them shames us all.

He says Scotland’s problem has been emigration, not immigration.

Lucas says people like Nuttall and their “hate-filled rhetoric” are trying to persuade people that problems with the NHS are due to immigrants. They are not. They are due to under-investment, he says.

Corbyn says there has to be managed migration. We should no longer allow people to bring in people to undermine wages.

Robertson accuses Labour of aping Ukip. We should stay in the single market, he says.

Corbyn asks Robertson if he did not hear the result of the referendum.

Farron says Labour did not vote for the Lib Dem amendment that would have allowed EU citizens to stay in the EU.

Rudd says the government must act in the interests of all Britons, including those abroad.

Rudd says all this squabbling make her realise how chaotic a coalition would be.

Wood says she is in coalition with Ukip.

Lucas says Rudd was here a year ago saying we should stay in the EU. Will you get Boris Johnson to drive you home, she asks.

Question 2 - Brexit

Q: When we leave the EU, how can we ensure that we protect living standards and have people with the right skills?

Nuttall calls for an Australian-style points system.

Farron says last week a middle-aged Asian man was abused on his way home from work. He had just finished 50 hours saving lives after the Manchester attack. He was a doctor.

That is what happens when you demonise immigrants.

He says May’s immigration target is “barmy”. It is a policy “written to appease Ukip”, he says.

Rudd says we must have an immigration policy we can control. She says although we will lower immigration, we will still attract the brightest and the best.

Husain asks Corbyn if he will reduce immigration.

Corbyn says all EU nationals must be allowed to stay.

Husain asks him to answer the question.

Corbyn says we would have a fair system.

Q: What is fair?

Fair is when people come here if they have a job, says Corbyn.

Rudd says she wants to take on Corbyn’s “fantasy economics”.

Nuttall criticises Labour for wanting to put up corporation tax.

Corbyn says he is talking complete nonsense. He says the government cut it. Labour is only returning it towards the level it was.

He asks Nuttall if he has been to food banks, if he has seen poverty.

His barb is aimed at Nuttall, but Rudd tries to answer.

Husain intervenes. She asks him how Labour’s plans would work.

Corbyn says the current system is not working. We cannot go on giving money away to the very rich. I say turn it round, he says.

This is from Sky’s Faisal Islam.

Lucas says 1m food parcels were given out last year. That is quite wrong.

Husain asks Rudd what happened to Theresa May’s talk about the just-about managing.

Rudd says there are 800,000 workless households. And there are 3m more jobs, she says.

Wood says the number of people on zero-hours contracts in Wales has “gone through the roof”.

Updated

Question 1 - Living standards

Q: I have gone without a pay rise. What can you do about that?

Rudd says the government inherited a difficult situation. The Tories have a plan for the economy, unlike the other parties.

Corbyn says living standards have fallen. Six million people are earning less than the living wage. Labour would increase it. And it would stop people having to pay charges to go to tribunal. The gap between the top and the bottom has risen. That has to stop, he says.

Robertson says austerity has been a choice. The SNP has a different approach. It will implement that in Scotland, and push for that at Westminster. He particularly attacks disability cuts.

Rudd says spending on disability payments has gone up.

Corbyn intervenes. She has taken money away from the disabled, he says.

Rudd tells him he has to stop acting as if there is “a magic money tree”.

Farron says he knows what it is like to be without money. He says any one of us may be just a few payments away from being hard up.

Updated

Paul Nuttall, the Ukip leader, says Ukip will stand up for the many. The government’s job is to protect the public. The police and the border force must be given the resources they need. But politicians must do their bit too. He says he believes in our way of life. And Ukip believes in Britain.

Angus Robertson, the SNP deputy leader, says Scotland needs a strong voice. He says a vote of the SNP is a vote against cuts, and a vote for jobs. It is a vote for Scotland to decide its own future. We cannot give Theresa May a blank cheque to persuade any kind of Brexit, he says.

Tim Farron, the Lib Dem leader, asks where Theresa May is. She may be outside your house, sizing it up so so can take it to pay for your dementia care. And she would take food from your children’s mouths. He has three good reasons for voting Lib Dem: first, he would rescue social care and the NHS by putting 1p on income tax; he would give you a say on Brexit, and he would stop May taking you for granted.

Updated

Opening statements

Leanne Wood, the Plaid Cymru leader, says Theresa May is taking people for granted. For 100 years Wales has voted Labour. But they are not airbrushing their leader out of their campaign. Let’s stop doing what she is doing, and elect Plaid MPs for a strong future for Wales.

Caroline Lucas, the Green co-leader, says people can vote for a new kind of politics: clean energy, non-nuclear, pro-refugees, pro-diversity, and pro “the good guys, not dodgy dictactors”. The Greens have shown you don’t need the keys to Number 10 to unlock change.

Amber Rudd, the Conservative home secretary, says people have a vital choice: do you want Theresa May and her team, who have a plan, building on the success they have had, strengthening the economy. The only question is who should be in Number 10: Jeremy Corbyn with his “money tree wishlist”, or May.

Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, says the question is: do we want a country for the many, and not the few, or a country saddled with debt? None of that is strong or stable. Labour will make different choices. We will ask people to give a bit more. Vote Labour to transform Britain for the many not the few.

Updated

BBC Election debate

Mishal Husain opens the programme.

She introduces the leaders, or their stand-ins.

The audience was selected to be representative of the country as a whole, she says. Some support parties, and some are undecided. And they split leave/remain in line with the country.

This is from Jeremy Corbyn (or the person who runs his Twitter account.)

This is from Mishal Husain, who is chairing tonight’s debate.

The spin room for tonight’s debate is at the Cambridge Union. My colleague Jessica Elgot is there.

Karen Bradley, the culture secretary, has defended Theresa May’s decision not to attend the debate on BBC News. She said May had attended more meetings and met more voters than Jeremy Corbyn. And she said it took Corbyn six weeks to decide to attend tonight. (Until today, he said he was not attending if May was not taking part.)

The academic Philip Cowley, co-author of the Nuffield guide to the 2015 general election (the closest we have to an official history), tweeted these earlier.

But he qualified those tweets with this.

Jeremy Corbyn has arrived for the debate.

I’m back, taking over from Kevin.

Half an hour to go. Here is where the debate will take place.

The set of the BBC election debate in Cambridge.
The set of the BBC election debate in Cambridge. Photograph: Jeff Overs/BBC/PA

A special deal allowing Northern Ireland to remain in the single market and customs union is the only way to overcome the political and economic threats posed by imposing a hard border with the Republic, the Alliance party has said.

It would be “toxic” to conflate calls for special status for Northern Ireland and any debate over the region’s constitutional future, the party’s deputy leader, Stephen Farry, said.

His party’s general election manifesto also calls for a second referendum on the terms of the final Brexit deal negotiated between the UK and the EU.

We must decouple the concept of a special deal for Northern Ireland with the broad constitutional question because if the notion of a special deal gets caught up in orange versus green politics, as opposed to building a broad, cross-community coalition behind it, then it will not have that support and will be seen as politically toxic, as opposed to something that is absolutely necessary.

Other key elements of the manifesto include:

  • An end to community designations in the Stormont assembly and the reform of the petition of concern vetoing mechanism.
  • The formation of the Stormont executive on a voluntary, rather than mandatory, basis.
  • A UK-wide constitutional convention to reshape a more federal UK.
  • The repeal of “English votes for English laws” in Westminster.
  • A target of 20% of school children in Northern Ireland to be in integrated education within 10 years.
  • Compelling the NI Housing Executive to facilitate mixed housing.
  • Opposition to any potential repeal of the Human Rights Act post-Brexit.
  • Higher tax rates for foreign companies making profits in the UK.
  • The reduction or abolition of air passenger duty.
  • Pressing for continued UK participation in the European arrest warrant post-Brexit.
  • The repeal of the bedroom tax.
  • Retaining the triple-lock on pensions.
  • A ban on the use of wild animals in circuses.
  • Opposition to Trident renewal.

Updated

Tim Farron has taken part in a mock TV debate with a group of schoolchildren, ahead of his appearance alongside other major party leaders.

The Liberal Democrat leader asked the children what they would do if elected as prime minister. Their answers included banning homework, picking their mother to lead the country and stopping Brexit.

‘I’d make my mum PM’: Tim Farron in mock TV debate with children – video

Updated

Afternoon summary

  • May has defended her decision not to take part in the debate, saying “debates where the politicians are squabbling among themselves doesn’t do anything for the process of electioneering”. (See 2.57pm.)
  • Corbyn has dismissed May’s claim that he wants “uncontrolled migration”, after a leaked Labour policy paper proposing a visa route for unskilled workers found its way to the Daily Mail and Telegraph. As Rowena Mason reports, the document indicates that Labour could create a US-style green card scheme and suggests the party does not consider cutting net migration a priority. According to the document, policy advisers suggested: “We envisage a requirement to make continued use of the current five-tiered visa system, including the currently unused tier applicable to those seeking low-skilled, unskilled or seasonal work.”
    The document proposes scrapping a means test that requires a UK sponsor to have a minimum gross annual income of £18,600 before they can apply for spouses or partners from non-European Economic Area states to join them. Speaking at an event in London, Corbyn said the paper was not party policy and Labour was simply exploring options.
  • Corbyn has claimed that another five years of Tory government would be “disastrous” for the public services. (See 11.14am.)

My colleague Kevin Rawlinson will be taking over the blog for a while now.

I’ll be back for the BBC debate at 7.30am.

Updated

The leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats has said voters are switching to his party from the SNP in target seats. As the Press Association reports, Willie Rennie launched his party’s election manifesto in Edinburgh and pledged to stop a second Scottish independence referendum, saying voters are “spitting mad” about the SNP’s continuing push for another ballot on the issue. First minister Nicola Sturgeon unveiled her party’s manifesto on Tuesday, claiming an SNP victory in Scotland in the general election on 8 June would “further reinforce” her party’s mandate for another referendum. Rennie said in “so many seats” across the country voters face a “straight choice between the Liberal Democrats and the SNP”. He predicted tactical voting could give his party a boost in close seats such as East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh West and Caithness.

Updated

Nigel Farage, the former Ukip leader, has been quite complimentary about Theresa May in the past. But he was critical of her after Monday’s Sky/Channel 4 showdown, and today he has mocked her claim to be “strong and stable” in the light of her decision to duck tonight’s debate.

The Conservatives may have the FT (see 5.19pm), but Labour has Russell Brand. In an article for HuffPost, the comedian has explained why he is backing Jeremy Corbyn. Here’s an extract.

Compared to the buffet of neoliberal homogeneity that we chewed through in 2015, the possibility of voting for a politician that offers change seems oddly exotic. Jeremy Corbyn has somehow been in politics for decades with his integrity perfectly preserved, like his much-derided beard has functioned as hairy formaldehyde for his principles.

Theresa May has chosen to make this election about ‘personality’ rather than principles, which seems increasingly unwise. The delirious sycophant that had her ear when they were plotting this smash ‘n’ grab clearly saw Theresa as some kind of female Freddie Mercury set to dazzle voters from the podium rather than a vindictive librarian drawn by Quentin Blake.

Updated

DUP leader Arlene Foster urges voters to put border poll plan 'off the agenda for generations'

Democratic Unionist leader Arlene Foster has said the general election will go a long way in determining if Northern Ireland faces devolution or five years of direct rule, the Press Association reports.

Launching the DUP’s election manifesto at the Old Courthouse in Antrim, Foster said every vote would not just determine who would be returned to Westminster, but also as a mandate for the political negotiations aimed at restoring power-sharing at Stormont.

The former first minister said after the election the DUP would enter Stormont negotiations positively but insisted it “will not be a one-way street”.

She said any deal to restore devolution would be judged by five core tests. These tests would include that an agreement would increase support for Northern Ireland’s position within the UK, would be fully consistent with the region remaining a “full and integral part” of the UK, would be fully compatible with British citizenship and result in better government than a return to direct rule.

Foster said, for her, the most important issue at the forthcoming election “is not devolution but the union itself”.

She called on all unionists to rise to the challenge from Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams and put a border poll off the agenda for generations.

“Sinn Fein want to use this election as a precursor to a border poll,” she said. “Gerry Adams has declared that this election will be a barometer on Irish Unity.

“Let us rise to that challenge and seek to ensure that unionism still returns a majority of unionist MPs to Westminster and puts the notion of a divisive and destabilising border poll off the agenda for generations to come.”

Arlene Foster and Ian Paisley Jr of the DUP with some of Paisley’s election canvassers after the DUP manifesto launch.
Arlene Foster and Ian Paisley Jr of the DUP with some of Paisley’s election canvassers after the DUP manifesto launch. Photograph: Charles McQuillan/Getty Images

Updated

The Financial Times, which is non-partisan, leans more to the right than the left, but has backed Labour at some elections in the past, has published its election editorial (paywall). And it is backing the Conservatives – but with some reservations.

Here is an excerpt:

Labour’s team are unfit for government, let alone the delicate Brexit talks. The Liberal Democrats have failed to make an impact with their pledge of a second EU referendum. All the evidence points to the end of European-style coalition and the return of two-party politics, with the exception of Scotland where the independence movement remains slightly diminished but a potent force.

Faced with such uncertainty at home and abroad, Mrs May is the safer bet. But accepting her as prime minister does not amount to a blank cheque. A substantially increased Conservative majority, even a landslide, could lead to an increase in the number of hardline Eurosceptics, who advocate a crash exit from the EU, a contemporary version of the Charge of the Light Brigade.

If Mrs May is returned, her management style must change. Her inner circle should be widened beyond the current Praetorian guard. The next few years will require the best and brightest and, yes, experts. Mrs May’s gamble on a snap election may pay off. Her resolve on Brexit is not in doubt; but her ability to deliver the best deal for Britain in terms of the closest possible relationship with the EU is worryingly unclear.

Updated

After her Bath Q&A Theresa May recorded a sit-down interview with the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg. Kuenssberg tried to get her to give details of the level at which the Tories would set the cap for social care costs and how many people would be affected by the decision to means-test the winter fuel payment. But she did not get very far at all, because May just batted the questions away by saying she would consult on these issues after the election. When asked what her message was to voters who wanted answers, May said:

What I’m saying is I will listen to you. And I think that’s important. You can approach this in one of two ways: I’ve set out the broad principles for our policy. I’ve shown how we will provide a long-term, sustainable social care system for this country which we need because the system will collapse unless we do something and do it now.

But what I’m also saying to people is I want to listen to them about where that cap should be, about where we should means-test winter fuel payments, listen to voters, listen to organisations, charities and others working with older people, consult with them. I think that’s the open thing for a government to do.

At least Sam Blackledge will know he is in distinguished company. Blackledge is the Plymouth Herald’s chief reporter and he has written a candid piece about how all he got was bland waffle when he interviewed May on local issues during her visit to the city this morning. This is how his article ends:

Back at the office, we scratched our heads and wondered what the top line was.

She had and given me absolutely nothing. It was like a postmodern version of Radio 4’s Just A Minute.

I pictured Nicholas Parsons in the chair: ‘The next topic is how Plymouth will be affected by Brexit, military cuts and transport meltdown. Theresa, you have three minutes to talk without clarity, candour or transparency. Your time starts now.’

Theresa May meets Carl Hatton during a visit to Plymouth Fisheries this morning.
Theresa May meets Carl Hatton during a visit to Plymouth Fisheries this morning. Photograph: Steve Parsons/PA

Updated

And, while we’re back on the YouGov election model (see 1.06pm), Jim Messina, the American political consultant who is working for the Conservatives, has rubbished it:

Updated

One consequence of the YouGov election modelling (see 1.06pm) is that reporters are taking the prospect of a Jeremy Corbyn government more seriously. ITV’s Robert Peston asked him about the possibility of forming a coalition, and he did not rule it out.

When Corbyn was asked if he would put together a coalition if necessary, Corbyn replied:

We’re doing no deals, no coalitions, we’re fighting to win this election.

When Peston put it to him that he did not need to do a deal now, and that it would be after the election, Corbyn replied:

Then you’d better ask me on 9 June.

Corbyn has already ruled out forming a coalition with the SNP, but not with other parties.

That has given the Tories the excuse to put out another “coalition of chaos” press release. In a statement Patrick McLoughlin, the Conservative chairman, said:

Jeremy Corbyn has made clear that he will do a deal in order to get the keys to Downing Street. Corbyn propped up by the Lib Dems and the SNP in a coalition of chaos would be a disaster for Britain and would mean a bad Brexit deal, higher taxes, more borrowing and weaker defences.

Updated

Jeremy Corbyn has given an interview to the Guardian Sport Network, mostly about Arsenal and grassroots football. Here is the interview in full:

And this is what he said when asked if a Labour victory would be “a bigger comeback than Istanbul”.

We are coming up towards the 84th minute. We’ve got six minutes to go. We are not ahead, we are not even totally level, but we’ve got this massive bank of supporters behind us. We have the opposing team ahead of us, their supporters behind them and our supporters behind us. We’ve got the spirit from them, we’ve got the determination from them. 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, there is no extra time in elections. Ten o’clock on 8 June, polls close. Result, next day: watch out for it.

Updated

Earlier we reported that Ofcom was considering 38 complaints from viewers who thought Jeremy Paxman’s interview with Jeremy Corbyn on Monday night was biased against the Labour leader. (See 1.06pm.)

It did not take them long. It has assessed the complaints, and decided that there are no grounds to investigate any potential breach of the UK broadcasting code.

Updated

The broadcaster STV has predicted the Scottish National party will hold on to 50 of its 56 seats at the general election after its Ipsos Mori poll put the SNP on 43%, confirming a slump in support from similar polls in 2015, when the SNP reached 55% before the 2015 general election.

That forecast suggests the SNP will do better than other polls and even SNP insiders were predicting, with some Holyrood figures suggesting the party faces losing 15 Westminster seats. Other surveys suggested Nicola Sturgeon’s party could lose up to a dozen or more seats, in the face of a Scottish Conservative surge which pushed its vote up to 33% in one poll.

The Ipsos Mori poll, conducted before Sturgeon published the SNP’s manifesto a week later than originally planned, gave Scottish Labour a fillip, putting its support at 25% – much higher than in recent polls.

Even so, STV’s seat projection said that would not translate into any gains. It would remain on one seat, currently Edinburgh South. Scottish Labour suggested the party was finally benefiting from the Jeremy Corbyn effect elsewhere in the UK, where there has been a late surge to Labour.

The Tories were also on 25%, lower than other recent polls, but the STV seat projection put them on course to hold David Mundell’s seat of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale and pick up six further seats at the expense of the SNP.

The SNP is yet to respond to the results, but both Labour and the Tories claimed they showed only their parties were best placed to defeat the SNP.

Jackson Carlaw, the Scottish Tory deputy leader, said:

Labour is now too weak, and with Jeremy Corbyn having confirmed he will open discussions with Nicola Sturgeon about a second referendum, they can’t be trusted to stand up against the SNP.

James Kelly, Scottish Labour’s election coordinator, said:

This is another encouraging poll which shows that increasing numbers of Scots know the only way to defeat the SNP in the majority of seats in Scotland is to vote Labour on June 8.

The survey also found a fall in support for independence, down from 50% in the last Ipsos Mori poll in March, to 47%, excluding don’t knows.

Updated

Here is today’s Election Daily podcast, with the Guardian’s Jonathan Freedland and Owen Jones alongside the New Statesman’s Stephen Bush.

Updated

There was a big crowd of protesters outside the factory in Bath where Theresa May was speaking earlier, my colleague Steven Morris reports.

Steven has also been asking people what they think of May not debating Jeremy Corbyn.

Updated

May gives four reasons for not debating Corbyn

Theresa May has now come up with four different reasons as to why she doesn’t need to debate Jeremy Corbyn. She managed to deploy them all as she took questions from journalists in a slightly awkward Q&A at a factory in Bath. Here they are in full.

1 - Because she debates him anyway at PMQs

This is the line Number 10 first deployed when the subject of an election debate came up, before the dissolution of parliament, and she repeated it again today.

First of all, I’ve been taking Jeremy Corbyn on directly, week in, week out, in prime minister’s questions.

2 - Because she’s more interested in meeting members of the public

Once parliament was dissolved, the PMQs answer no longer carried any weight, and at that point May started using another argument - that she would rather focus on face-to-face campaigning. When the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg asked a few minutes ago why May did not debate Corbyn, given the importance of public scrutiny, May replied:

Yes, public scrutiny is for an election campaign. That’s why taking questions from members of the public who are going to be voting on 8 June is so important. That’s what I enjoy doing during the campaigns. And I think that’s really important. That is why I’ve been doing that up and down the country.

3 - Because debates are a bit pointless

May first used this argument last month, when she took part in a Facebook Q&A. She used it again today, in response to the third question in a row from a broadcaster about why she was refusing to debate Corbyn. May said:

I think debates where the politicians are squabbling among themselves doesn’t do anything for the process of electioneering. I think it’s about getting out and about, meeting voters and hearing directly from voters.

May is actually wrong about this. This is from the conclusion of a report by academics into the 2015 election debates that investigated whether they were useful to voters.

The findings we have presented show that the 2015 TV election debates performed a crucially important civic role, reaching sections of the population least likely to be touched by the rest of the campaign; helping citizens to acquire the information they need to make meaningful choices; and thereby boosting the electorate’s confidence. Whatever their strategic effects might have been in terms of inter-party competition, the debates served democratic citizenship.

4 - Because she is too busy preparing for Brexit

Sky’s Faisal Islam was the first journalist to ask May today why she was not debating Corbyn. Here is her reply in full.

I’m interested in the fact that Jeremy Corbyn seems to be paying far more attention to how many appearances on telly he’s doing. I think he ought to be paying a little more attention to thinking about Brexit negotiations. That’s what I’m doing, to make sure we get the best possible deal for Britain.

Presumably May said this because she is because she is trying to keep the focus of the campaign on Brexit, not because she really cannot afford the time for a debate because she is busy with Brexit prep, but it is what she said.

Analysis

May might have been better advise to stick to just one explanation for not debating Corbyn instead of giving four. She managed to come up with multiple reasons without mentioning the obvious and most credible one: that it is generally sensible for serving prime ministers who are ahead in the polls to avoid debates because they have nothing to gain and everything to lose.

In adopting this approach, May is just following the policy adopted by every prime minister from the 1950s, when TV started covering elections, until Gordon Brown in 2010. It is not not a particularly brave or principled stance, but tactically it makes sense.

However, it has become more difficult for May to refuse to participate in debates than it was for prime ministers like Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair because both her two immediate predecessors, Brown and David Cameron, did do them. (Cameron only participated in 2015 reluctantly, and he ended up doing just one, with six other leaders invited, thereby diluting the impact of the Cameron/Ed Miliband contrast.)

One other point worth making: May has been taking questions from journalists regularly at her campaign events, but it is noticeable how the tone has changed. At the start of the campaign she was always treated with considerable respect. Now, as the Bath Q&A earlier illustrated, journalists, including the all-powerful broadcasters, are treating her with much more scepticism. May often responds to hostile questions by laughing. Occasionally it seems genuine, but more and more it is sounding like a nervous tic.

Theresa May doing a Q&A at Cross Manufacturing Company in Odd Down in Bath.
Theresa May doing a Q&A at Cross Manufacturing Company in Odd Down in Bath. Photograph: Leon Neal/Getty Images

Updated

Scottish voters are becoming disenchanted with both Nicola Sturgeon and Theresa May, with the popularity of both leaders plunging over the last eight months in the latest STV opinion poll.

The Ipsos Mori poll for the broadcaster gave the prime minister a satisfaction rating of -27, a hefty 43 point fall from her +16 rating in September last year.

Sturgeon, who previously enjoyable substantial popularity ratings, is now on -4, a fall of 18 points from her +14 rating last autumn. She is now the most unpopular of the five Scottish party leaders, according to these findings.

When the pollsters asked Scottish voters who would make the most capable prime minister, 42% backed May but 40% supported Corbyn, implying that Corbyn’s standing among Scottish voters had been boosted in recent weeks.

On a personal level, Corbyn had a -13 satisfaction rating, still very negative but an improvement of 13 points from his -26 last September.

Among other Scottish party leaders, the most popular was Scottish Green co-convener Patrick Harvie, who had a +12 rating, followed by Willie Rennie, the Scottish Lib Dem leader, on +6, Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson on +5, down from her previous +31 high last year, while Kezia Dugdale, the Scottish Labour leader, was on -2, an eight point improvement from her -10 last autumn.

Those ratings should be treated with some caution, however, because nearly everyone in Scotland has an opinion on Sturgeon and May. Not so other leaders.

Ipsos Mori data (which was not reported by STV) showed that 34% of Scottish voters either had no opinion of Harvie or did not know who he was, with 32% expressing no view of Rennie. By contrast, only 15% of voters had no opinion of Davidson. Only 4% of voters had no opinion of Sturgeon.

Nicola Sturgeon eats fish and chips with local candidate Stephen Gethins outside a fish bar in Anstruther, Scotland.
Nicola Sturgeon eats fish and chips with local candidate Stephen Gethins outside a fish bar in Anstruther, Scotland. Photograph: Russell Cheyne/Reuters

Updated

Q: The YouGov model suggest you will lose seats. Will you resign if that happens?

May says there is only one poll that matters, the vote on 8 June.

Q: Isn’t the truth about why you are missing the debate is that you think people will not like you?

No, says May.

She says she has set out what an election campaign should be about. It should be about going out and meeting voters.

Q: This morning you were in a seat the Conservatives are defending, and you are in one now. Have you given up trying to gain seats?

May says yesterday she was in seats the Tories hope to win. You have to visit both, she says.

And that’s it.

I will post a summary soon.

May is now taking questions from the media.

Q: [From Sky’s Faisal Islam] If you are so strong, and Jeremy Corbyn is so weak, why won’t you debate him tonight?

May laughs. She says Corbyn seems keen to be on TV a lot. She says she is more worried about preparing for the Brexit talks.

Q: Don’t you think public scrutiny is important?

May says she thinks it is. That is why she is taking questions from voters during the campaign.

She says she feels sorry for ITV. Corbyn snubbed their debate.

She says debates where politicians are squabbling amongst themselves do not do anything for voters.

Q: You haven’t said anything about the NHS. Will it be privatised?

May rules out privatisation. She says the government is putting more money into the NHS.

Q: If extra money is going in, why is it in such a crisis?

May says the NHS is facing more and more demand. There are nearly 2m more operations a year than in 2010. That is why money must be spent effectively. Record amounts of funding are going in, she says.

Q: House prices are too high. What would you do about that?

May says the government published a policy document on housing before the election. One idea is to ensure that when developers have planning permission to build, they actually do build. Another is to look at different means of construction, so that homes can be built more quickly.

Q: My MP in Chippenham has been very vocal about school funding. But my local headteacher is worried about the impact. What are you doing about this?

May says it is right to have a fairer funding formula. A document with a proposed formula has been published. That is subject to consultation. But the government has promised that no school will lose out in cash terms.

Updated

Q: Brexit is happening. I am pleased you are prime minister. But we have a lot of social problems too. What will you do about the rising tide of homelessness and food banks? I asked Tory canvassers about this. They did not give me a satisfactory answer.

May says the government is putting over £500m into dealing with homelessness, but says you have to tackle this in different ways. Partly it is about building more homes. And it is about tackling the causes of homelessness, such as mental health. She says the government is looking at programmes that intervene early. And it is also looking at rough sleeping, and how to tackle that.

Updated

May's Q&A

May is now taking questions from workers at the factory.

Q: There is no doubt that, just as Churchill was needed during world war two, you are needed now. But I am worried you are going to take away our freedoms with your policy with regard to British viewers. People not involved in terrorism will end up being investigated. I have a problem with that.

May says she does not want to remove freedoms. Freedom of expression and freedom of faith are essential. But she wants to take action against those preaching hate.

This is about reinforcing British values, she says.

Theresa May's speech

Theresa May is speaking at an election event in Bath.

She says that if people vote for any other party, they will be voting for Jeremy Corbyn to become prime minister.

She says Brexit matters for the public services. The talks will start 11 days after the election, and we have to be ready for them, she says.

Theresa May.
Theresa May. Photograph: Reuters

Angela Rayner, the shadow education secretary, has come up with a good soundbite about Theresa May’s non-appearance in tonight’s TV debate, the FT’s Jim Pickard reports.

UPDATE: Here is Tim Bale, a politics professor, on Rayner’s soundbite.

Updated

The “conveyor belt” of testing that children are subjected to at school must be stopped because it is causing depression and self-harming, the Green party’s co-leader has said. As the Press Association reports, Jonathan Bartley, who was presented with his own SATs test results outside the Department for Education, insisted it was “time we turned our education system into a springboard for life rather than a diving board into stress and anxiety”. Bartley sat a year six key stage 2 English grammar, spelling and punctuation test, in which he scored 67 out of 70, to highlight the “burden” SATs place on children. He said:

What I was very surprised about was the anxiety the whole process caused me.

The process of being graded, knowing I would have to share my results, made me very stressed. If I feel like that, imagine how all our children feel.

Jonathan Bartley is presented with his SATs results by a teacher outside the Department for Education in Westminster.
Jonathan Bartley is presented with his SATs results by a teacher outside the Department for Education in Westminster. Photograph: Lauren Hurley/PA

Updated

Nick Clegg at the launch in central London of a Lib Dem campaign poster attacking the Conservatives’ school meals policy.
Nick Clegg at the launch in central London of a Lib Dem campaign poster attacking the Conservatives’ school meals policy. Photograph: Victoria Jones/PA

A song labelling Theresa May a “liar” is battling to replace pop superstar Justin Bieber at the top of the UK charts, the Press Association reports.

Captain Ska’s Liar Liar GE2017 has shot up the Official Singles Chart since its release last week, landing at number three on Wednesday.

The track criticises the prime minister, using samples of her speeches and interviews alongside clips of other senior Tories with the chorus “She’s a liar liar, you can’t trust her, no, no, no”.

Its rise through the chart means it is now in with a chance of replacing Bieber’s remix of Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee’s Despacito at the summit in Friday’s chart announcement.

Updated

Tories confirm May will not take part in tonight's debate

Theresa May has, unsurprisingly, turned down Jeremy Corbyn’s fresh invitation to join him in tonight’s debate. A Conservative party spokesman said:

There are no changes to the prime minister’s plans. She is out campaigning today, engaging with voters about the issues that matter, not swapping soundbites with six other politicians.

There is a clear choice in this election: either the Brexit negotiations are led by Theresa May 11 days after polling day, or they will be put at risk by Jeremy Corbyn and his coalition of chaos.

A Tory source said:

The public want to see a leader who can stare down the EU 27 at the negotiation table, not someone who will need their iPad to remember their dodgy facts in a debate.

Corbyn accuses May of treating voters 'with contempt' because she won't debate

Here is the statement the Labour party has released from Jeremy Corbyn announcing his decision to take part in tonight’s debate:

I will be taking part in tonight’s debate because I believe we must give people the chance to hear and engage with the leaders of the main parties before they vote.

I have never been afraid of a debate in my life. Labour’s campaign has been about taking our polices to people across the country and listening to the concerns of voters.

The Tories have been conducting a stage-managed arms-length campaign and have treated the public with contempt. Refusing to join me in Cambridge tonight would be another sign of Theresa May’s weakness, not strength.

Updated

Here is our story about Jeremy Corbyn’s decision to take part in tonight’s BBC election debate.

The BBC election debate is on at 7.30pm. Amber Rudd, the home secretary, is due to represent the Conservatives and we now know that Jeremy Corbyn will be there for Labour.

The other participants will be: Tim Farron, the Lib Dem leader; Paul Nuttall, the Ukip leader; Caroline Lucas, the Green co-leader; Leanne Wood, the Plaid Cymru leader; and Angus Robertson, the SNP deputy leader and its leader at Wesminster.

The UK broadcasting regulator is considering whether to launch an investigation into Jeremy Paxman’s interview with Jeremy Corbyn after receiving dozens of complaints that he was biased against the Labour leader.

Ofcom has received 38 complaints about May v Corbyn Live: The Battle for Number 10, which was simulcast on Channel 4 and Sky on Monday night, with viewers alleging that Paxman was biased against Corbyn.

Ofcom will examine footage of the leaders’ debate to see if the complaints warrant launching an official investigation for a potential breach of the UK broadcasting code.

May v Corbyn Live drew an average audience of 3.3 million viewers, more than tuned in to watch a BBC1 Panorama special on the Manchester bombings and BBC2’s Springwatch.

Updated

As Claire reported this morning, the Times has published some surprise findings from a YouGov election model suggesting the Tories are on course to lose 20 seats at the elections. That is completely at odds with opinion polls and conventional seat projections which are all showing the Conservatives as on course for a healthy win, sometimes with majorities of more than 100.

Here is the YouGov chart from today’s Times (paywall).

YouGov seat prediction based on election model
YouGov seat prediction based on election model Photograph: The Times

Douglas Rivers, YouGov’s chief scientist and a politics professor, has written a blog for YouGov explaining how their model works.

The YouGov model uses multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP). This is how Rivers explains it.

The idea behind MRP is that we use the poll data from the preceding seven days to estimate a model relating interview date, constituency, voter demographics, past voting behaviour, and other respondent profile variables to their current voting intentions. This model is then used to estimate the probability that a voter with specified characteristics will vote Conservative, Labour, or some other party. Using data from the UK Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results, YouGov has estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allows YouGov to produce a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.

But Lord Ashcroft, the former Tory deputy chairman who now runs his own polling operation, has also set up a model using MRP to try to predict the election result. And his most recent update, published on Friday, had the Tories on course for a majority of 142.

My colleague Alan Travis has written an analysis of the YouGov model.

Being tactful, he says YouGov is being “brave”.

And here is some Twitter comment on the YouGov exercise.

From the academic Matthew Goodwin:

From the Times’s Philip Collins:

Updated

This is what Jeremy Corbyn said at his rally in Reading.

When he first mentioned tonight’s debate, he renewed his challenge to Theresa May to take part (repeating a point he made at his press conference this morning - see 11.14am) without explicitly saying he would be there himself.

It is very odd that you have an election campaign where we go out and talk to people all the time and the prime minister seems to have difficulty meeting anyone or having a debate. And so there is a debate in Cambridge tonight. I don’t know what she’s doing this evening, but it’s not far from London. I invite her to go to Cambridge and debate her policies, debate her record, debate their plans, debate their proposals and let the public make up their minds.

Then, after he had wrapped up his speech and received applause, Corbyn spoke to the crowd again to announce his news. He said:

I hope you will forgive me, I have to go now because I am going to go to Cambridge to get ready for the debate tonight because there is no hiding place. We’ll put our views out there and let the people decide. For the many, not the few.

Jeremy Corbyn in Reading.
Jeremy Corbyn in Reading. Photograph: Carl Court/Getty Images

Updated

Corbyn announces surprise decision to take part in tonight's TV election debate

Jeremy Corbyn has just confirmed that he will take part in the TV debate tonight. He did so at an election rally in Reading, after challenging Theresa May to join him.

Corbyn expected to take part in tonight's TV election debate

The Press Association has also been told Jeremy Corbyn will take part in tonight’s debate. It has snapped this:

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is set to announce he will take part in tonight’s live TV general election debate, according to sources.

Updated

My colleague Heather Stewart says Jeremy Corbyn will be taking part in tonight’s BBC debate.

Official Labour sources are not confirming this.

Updated

My colleague Anushka Asthana has produced a Guardian election video assessing the Tories’ claim to be the party of the working class.

Are the Tories really the party of the working class?

Theresa May visiting Plymouth fisheries this morning.
Theresa May visiting Plymouth fisheries this morning. Photograph: Reuters

Updated

Labour's press conference – summary

Here are the main points from the Jeremy Corbyn press conference.

  • Corbyn claimed that another five years of Tory government would be “disastrous” for the public services. Publishing a dossier showing what would happen to key public service indicators on the basis of current trends, he said:

The future of the NHS and our schools are at stake in this election. The state that the Conservatives have left our NHS and our children’s schools in is anything but strong and stable.

Labour will invest in our people, schools and hospitals. We will cut class sizes, take a million people off the NHS waiting list and ensure people get the care they deserve.

By contrast another five years of the Tories would be disastrous for our public services. At the rate we’re going we could see 5.5 million people on the English waiting list and 1.5 million older people with unmet care needs. And young people and their families face the prospect of more overcrowding in schools and having to pick up the bill for the Tories’ unfair plan to scrap free school meals for hundreds of thousands of children.

  • He claimed a leaked Labour policy document suggesting the party would allow unskilled immigration from the EU did not represent party policy. Asked about it, he said:

What you’ve been reading is a document that was being discussed between researchers in our teams, as happens every day of the week in every party and all around parliament. Our policy is in our manifesto. That is the policy that we will be carrying out.

Corbyn said Labour would manage migration. He also accused Theresa May of making “false promises” on immigration, because the Tories have failed to get annual net migration below 100,000 despite having promised to do so in their 2010 and 2015 manifestos.

  • He firmed up his opposition to a second Scottish independence referendum while the Brexit talks are still going on. Going further than what he said yesterday (see 10.32am), he said it would be “extremely wrong and unwise” to have a referendum before the Brexit process was over. He said:

I believe that the last thing Scotland needs now is that debate. What is needed now is a serious debate about the problems of under-funding of public services in Scotland ... And I think it would be extremely wrong and unwise to go into a referendum while the Brexit negotiations are going on. So the invitation I would give to the Scottish government and parliament is, ‘Think again.’

Earlier today Corbyn also posted this on Twitter to clarify his position.

  • He refused to rule out a “confidence and supply” arrangement with the SNP if Labour had to form a minority government. He suggested the question was irrelevant because Labour was on course to win.
  • He renewed his challenge to May to debate with him. He said it was very odd to take part in the Sky/Channel 4 event on Monday, being in the same building as May but not debating her. Describing what happened, he said:

And then the prime minister is hiding away in a room upstairs to come down to do exactly the same. How ridiculous is that. Come on, prime minister. Come and have a chat. Come and have a debate. And I can be ever so polite.

  • He refused to say whether or not he would attend the BBC leaders’ debate tonight. Previously he has said that he will not take part if May is not attending (and she isn’t.)
  • He criticised May for talking about him being “naked” in the Brexit negotiating chamber on Tuesday. Asked about this, he said:

I certainly would not use language like that myself. I think it’s totally inappropriate to describe anyone as naked, even me.

  • He said that he had always wanted an IRA ceasefire in Ireland, but he dodged a question about whether he has publicly called for one. Asked about this, he said:

I always wanted there to be a ceasefire. I supported ceasefires.

  • He said that he had met loyalist paramilitaries in Northern Ireland, as well as republican ones. As an example, he said he had had “long conversations” with David Ervine, the former loyalist terrorist who became leader of the Progressive Unionist party.
Jeremy Corbyn at his press conference.
Jeremy Corbyn at his press conference. Photograph: Tim Ireland/EPA

Updated

Kezia Dugdale, the Scottish Labour leader, has again been forced to shore up her party’s manifesto pledge to oppose a second independence referendum after Jeremy Corbyn again said he would be happy to allow one.

Scottish Labour officials say Corbyn has been repeatedly briefed there is one party line: Labour opposes independence and opposes a fresh referendum. Yet he repeatedly fails to keep to the script.

Corbyn on Tuesday repeated his view that it was hard for any UK prime minister to deny demands for a second referendum if there was a Holyrood mandate and popular support. Speaking on a campaign visit in London on Tuesday, he insisted he believed independence was a bad idea but said:

What I’ve said is that if the Scottish parliament and the Scottish people want a referendum, they have the right to do that. That was the whole point of the devolution agreement of the 1990s.

I think the referendum should take place, if there is to be one, after the Brexit negotiations are concluded because this is the most important thing.

Labour officials will point out that the Scottish National party cannot pass one of Corbyn’s tests, in that there is not majority support amongst the Scottish electorate for a fresh referendum yet. But the SNP has passed his first test: Holyrood agreed by 10 votes in March to support Nicola Sturgeon’s call for one, ideally between autumn 2018 and spring 2019.

Speaking on BBC Scotland’s Ask the Leader programme on Tuesday evening, Dugdale insisted there were no policy differences with Corbyn. She said:

You picked one 10-second quote there. I’m pointing you to an entire record, a manifesto and a programme for government that says we’re opposed to independence and a second independence referendum.

It couldn’t be clearer than that.

With its poll ratings still under 20%, the Scottish party feels under intense pressure to reinforce its pro-UK credentials to stem the tide of strongly unionist voters in once Labour areas towards the Scottish Tories. Accepting the case for a referendum also undermines Dugdale’s efforts to present federalism as the best answer to separatism – a policy Corbyn has yet to support.

May claims Labour favours uncontrolled immigration

Theresa May is on a visit to Plymouth this morning. Commenting on the Telegraph splash, which says a leaked policy paper shows that Labour is considering letting unskilled EU workers come to the UK after Brexit, she said:

What we need to do is have proper control of our immigration and, of course, we are going to be able to put in rules for people coming from the EU to the UK once we leave the European Union.

There’s a very clear choice at this election, there’s a very clear difference between myself and Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour party.

I want to ensure we are controlling migration because too high uncontrolled migration puts pressure on our public services but it also lowers wages at the lower end of the income scale.

I want to ensure we control migration. Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour party want uncontrolled migration.

Theresa May meets Carl Hatton who works on the fishing vessel Avon Valley as she visits the Plymouth fisheries in Plymouth.
Theresa May meets Carl Hatton who works on the fishing vessel Avon Valley as she visits the Plymouth fisheries in Plymouth. Photograph: POOL/Reuters

We tried to put a live feed of the press conference at the top of the blog, but there was a glitch, and it did not work. That’s why there’s no picture and just a URL there now. We are trying to get it fixed.

Rayner is winding up.

She says she talks a lot about being brought up on a council estate by a single mum who could not read. She does this to make the point about how much schemes like Sure Start can make a difference, she says.

She says Labour’s plans for free childcare, and for a national education service, would ensure that children like her get real opportunities.

The Tories will tell you you cannot have that, she says. But you can.

And that’s it.

I will post a summary soon.

Q: What does Labour think is a reasonable figure for how much people should pay for social care? Would you back £72,000, the cap proposed by Andrew Dilnot.

Ashworth says Labour would put more money into social care.

He says Labour thinks the Dilnot principles are “sound”. Labour would consult on them. Over a parliament, it wants to move to a national care service.

Corbyn says the current crisis is appalling. The fact that the Tories have done a U-turn on a manifesto promise is unprecedented.

Q: What would you say to Theresa May saying if you negotiated Brexit, you would be alone and naked in the debating chamber.

“Not a pretty sight”, says Angela Smith, the Labour leader in the Lords, who is charing the session.

Corbyn says he would not use language like that himself. He thinks it is inappropriate to describe anyone as “naked”.

He would approach the negotiations in a serious way.

But he is not approaching them by threatening Europe, threatening to walk away and set up a rival tax haven.

We are leaving the EU, but will need a relationship with Europe in the future.

He says Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, has been reaching out already, and has been holding meetings in Europe.

Q: Did you ever meet loyalist paramilitaries in Northern Ireland?

Yes, says Corbyn. He says he had long conversations with people like David Ervine, the former loyalist terrorist who became leader of the Progressive Unionist party.

He says we should celebrate what has been achieved in the peace process.

Q: Can you comment on the leaked document. And confirm that the UK will definitely leave the EU if the Labour wins?

Corbyn says the document leaked to the Telegraph was one discussed by researchers. He says Labour’s policy is in the manifesto.

The UK is leaving the EU, he says.

Q: You have ruled out a deal with the SNP. Would you rule out any sort of confidence and supply deal to keep the Tories out?

Corbyn says the questioner (George Eaton from the New Statesman) should get out of Westminster more. If he did, he would see that people want a Labour government. He invites Eaton to join him when Labour celebrates victory.

Q: Would you tell Nicola Sturgeon to take the demand for a second independence off the table if you needed to do a deal with SNP?

Corbyn says the Scottish parliament has taken a view.

He says he thinks the last thing Scotland needs is a second independence debate.

It would be “extremely wrong and unwise” to go into a referendum while the Brexit negotiations were going on.

Q: Did you every call for an IRA ceasefire?

Corbyn says he always wanted ceasefires. He supported ceasefires. He says we should pay huge tributes to Mo Mowlam for what she achieved.

He says many people like him met people on both sides they disagreed with.

He says “those of us” who took up cases of miscarriage of justice were right to do so.

Updated

Jeremy Corbyn’s press conference

Jeremy Corbyn is now taking questions.

Q: [From the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg] How would your immigration policy work in practice? [That is prompted by this Telegraph leak.] And will you attend the BBC debate tonight?

On immigration, Corbyn says free movement would end when the UK leaves the EU. Labour would legislate immediately for EU nationals to have the right to stay in Britain.

Under managed migration, the right to come to the UK would be based on the needs of the economy and the rights of family reunion.

Employers would not be able to bring people to the UK to undercut workers.

He says he will not make false promises about immigration, as the Tories did in 2010 and 2015 and as Theresa May is doing now.

On the debate, Corbyn says it was “ridiculous” for him to go to Sky on Monday and be questioned by Jeremy Paxman, but not to have the chance to debate May, who was in the same building.

He challenges May, again, to debate with him tonight.

Q: [From 5 News’s Andy Bell] You have cited the IFS. But the IFS say you will not be able to get all the tax revenue you need from rich people and corporations.

Ashworth says Labour disagrees with the IFS.

And the IFS cannot do an analysis of the Tory plans, because the Tories have not published plans. And the Tories always put up tax after an election. They did that with VAT, he says.

He says the IFS recognise that Labour would put substantially more into schools and the NHS than the Tories.

Corbyn says he is very confident that Labour’s costings are robust. Some 95% of people would pay no more in tax and national insurance.

Q: [From the Mirror’s Jack Blanchard] A YouGov poll suggests there could be a hung parliament. What would you do in those circumstances?

Angela Rayner, the shadow education secretary, says she does not trust polls. We need a Labour government, she says. She says Labour would finish the work of the Attlee government and set up a national education system.

Corbyn says he never comments on opinion polls.

But this election campaign is going very well, he says.

And he says the average donation to Labour online is £22. That is because ordinary people want a change, he says.

Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, is speaking now.

He says the Tories thought they could glide through this campaign with trite claims about public services. But the public want proper answers, he says.

He says Jeremy Hunt said the day the Tory manifesto was announced that the party was promising an extra £8bn for the NHS. But this claim was rejected by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, he says.

He says the funding crisis has left the NHS weak and unstable.

That is why Labour is publishing a dossier on what would happen if the Tories continue as now.

Turning to infrastructure, he says the cyber-attack shows how vulnerable the NHS is.

He says in a hospital in south London patients using wheelchairs had to be seen outside, because a lift was not working.

He cites other examples from the dossier.

Here are some of the other examples in the dossier (including some mentioned by Ashworth).

South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust: The temperature of the ward was so cold that staff were working in their jackets and patients were sleeping in their jackets along with two blankets.

University Hospitals Coventry & Warwickshire NHS Trust: There was a leak from the ceiling onto the operating table. Patients had to be re-routed to other theatres. The affected patient had to have precautionary antibiotics.

Isle of Wight NHS Foundation Trust: There was a significant leak from decontamination waste pipe causing flooding on level A outpatient department. Endoscopy department out of action for 2.5 days resulting in 12 cancelled lists and fast track patient breaches.

Royal Cornwall Hospitals: There was a power cut in resus and back up power failed. Two patients in resus were acutely unwell. One patient was having airway support and seizures attempting cannulation at time of the power failure. The problem lasted for three and a half hours.

Essex Partnership University NHS Foundation Trust: There was a failure of wards cold water pump/pressure system which resulted in total loss of water pressure to basins, toilets and showers. The ward was closed and patients were affected and had to be moved.

Updated

Jeremy Corbyn is speaking now.

He says the state of the public services “is anything but strong and stable”.

That is because, at every turn, the Tories have chosen tax cuts, he says.

He says schools and hospitals are under intense pressure. Labour will invest in public services, and give public sector staff a pay rise.

He says Labour’s research highlights what would happen if the Conservative continue as now.

These are the key figures. I’ve taken them from the news release Labour has just sent out.

New analysis of the Tory threat has revealed that if the current rate of deterioration under the Tories continues, by 2022 our health and education services could be facing huge problems. It could mean:

In a Tory NHS and social care system:

5.5 million people on waiting lists in England, 1.8 million more than at present.

Almost 1.5 million older and vulnerable people with unmet social care needs.

In a Tory education system:

650,000 pupils crammed into primary classes of over 30.

Families left almost £450 worse off per child as a result of the Tories’ plan to scrap free school meals for 1.7 million children.

Jeremy Corbyn's press conference

Jeremy Corbyn is holding a press conference this morning on the NHS.

My colleague Peter Walker is there. He says Labour has handed out a 36-page briefing to help make its case.

The Labour party says it will announce around lunchtime who is representing it in tonight’s BBC debate.

Originally Jeremy Corbyn said he would not take part in any debates without Theresa May. She has refused to come. But there has been speculation, fuelled by his relatively strong performance in Monday’s Sky/Channel 4 leaders’ interviews with Jeremy Paxman, that he may make a surprise decision to turn up.

If Corbyn does give it a miss, Emily Thornberry, the shadow foreign secretary (who has stood in for him at PMQs) is expected to be chosen to represent Labour.

Q: Would a good Brexit damage the NHS?

Hunt says with a good Brexit we can go forward.

Q: The Times has a survey saying 1m more carers are needed. Where will they come from after Brexit?

Hunt says May has been honest about saying the current system does not work.

Q: You use the word honest. You told this programme, when the manifesto was published, that you were dropping plans for a cap on care costs. But then Theresa May announced she was bringing it back.

Hunt says he is being quoted out of context. He said that it was not fair to expect the younger population to pay for care in that interview. He says under May’s plans older people will have to contribute.

And that’s it.

Jeremy Hunt's Today interview

Jeremy Hunt, the health secretary, is now being interviewed by Today.

Q: What is your 30-second pitch on the NHS?

Hunt says the government inherited the worst deficit since the war. But the NHS now has the highest cancer survival rates, and the biggest expansion of mental health care. You can only have a good NHS with a strong economy. And Brexit will be crucial. Theresa May will get the best Brexit deal, he says.

Q: But demand on the NHS is increasing at 4%. The NHS is not meeting that.

Hunt says governments can only fund the NHS if the economy is doing well.

And he says he thinks the Today programme’s coverage of the NHS today has been unfair. Outcomes are getting better, he says.

Q: But the staff are under real pressure.

Hunt says the NHS staff do a great job.

He says in the last three years the NHS budget has gone up by £7bn in real terms. That is close to the sort of increases you saw in the Blair years, he says.

Q: It depends where you start. Overall, increases have been much lower than in the Blair years.

Hunt repeats the point about extra money going in in the last three years.

This could happen because 2.8m extra jobs have been created, he says. You need jobs to generate tax revenue to pay for the NHS.

Q: Is Labour saying charities and not-for-profits should not be involved in providing healthcare.

No, says Ashworth. He says organisations like this have always been involved.

Q: So how will you decide what private firms should not be involved?

Ashworth says many private firms are not providing good quality healthcare.

Q: But where private firms are proving good care, should that carry on?

Ashworth says Labour wants the NHS to be the preferred provider.

Labour would get rid of the Health and Social Care Act, insisting on competition.

And that’s it.

Q: You have said you would halt and review the sustainability and transformation plans. There are claims that would hold up NHS reform.

Ashworth says ministers say the STPs are not about cuts. So halting them would not increase spending.

He says they have been drawn up in the context of plans that people do not believe are realistic.

He says the public are not daft. They know you cannot have a hospital everywhere.

Q: But people always want to save their own hospital.

Ashworth says if you can make a convincing argument for a hospital closure, the public will go along with it. But they need to be involved.

Jonathan Ashworth's Today interview

Good morning. I’m taking over from Claire.

Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, is being interviewed on Today.

Q: If you have 30 seconds, how would you describe Labour’s offering on the NHS.

Ashworth says Labour would increase investment into the NHS, to deliver the best quality of care for patients.

Q: But the IFS says what you are proposing is not what the NHS needs, if it is to meet the demands on it. The IFS says you are giving it a 2% increase, and it needs a 4% increase.

Ashworth says the IFS says Labour is offering more than other parties. Labour is proposing a substantial investment.

He says Labour would front-load investment in the early years of the parliament. And it would then set up a body to review what spending the NHS needs.

Andrew Sparrow is now taking up the live blog.

If you’d like the Snap, our daily election briefing email, in your inbox tomorrow and every weekday till this election is over, do sign up here.

A week before the election, the public remain clueless about what Brexit would actually mean for the country, says the Guardian’s Brexit policy editor, Dan Roberts, who describes this as a huge failing of politics and the media:

Absence of debate about Brexit has turned this election into a fraud

With Labour renewing its focus on public services today – expect Corbyn later this morning to attack the government’s austerity agenda – shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth is doing the morning media round.

He’s already popped up on ITV’s Good Morning Britain where host Eamonn Holmes said he wouldn’t be asking for any figures after the Labour leader did not have his childcare costs to hand yesterday. Ashworth joked:

I’ve been revising all night!

Theresa May’s support for LGBT rights was called into question at an election hustings on Tuesday evening.

Justine Greening, secretary of state for education, who announced she was in a same-sex relationship last year, was representing the Conservatives at the event organised by Stonewall, Pink News, and Pride in London.

She began by listing Conservative policies on LGBT issues passed while Theresa May was home secretary, as evidence of the prime minister’s awareness of the issues:

Under this government, since 2010, we passed the same-sex marriage act. Who did that? Actually it was Theresa May as home secretary. We’ve also toughened up on areas like reporting hate crimes. Since 2013, the police have had to gather and collate stats on LGBT-focused hate crime and then publish it. Who did that? Actually it was Theresa May.

Liberal Democrat peer Brian Paddick disputed Greening’s claim that the Conservatives had been pushing for the introduction of gay marriage, saying that within the coalition government the energy behind that policy had come from the Lib Dems:

The thing I can’t let past though, it was Lynne Featherstone, a Liberal Democrat MP who championed same-sex marriage in the coalition, and who got it through with David Cameron’s support. And I would urge people to look at Theresa May’s voting record on LGBT issues.

Greening disagreed, saying May had been the “unsung hero” of the legislation.

In 2010, May distanced herself from her voting record on LGBT issues, including voting against gay adoption in 2002 and voting against the repeal of Section 28, which banned councils from “promoting” homosexuality, in 2000.

Updated

Northern Ireland’s Alliance party is set to launch its manifesto and its leader, Naomi Long, has been speaking to Radio 4’s Today programme.

Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU, but with a sharp divide: most Catholics voted in, most Protestants out.

Long says Brexit shouldn’t be “an orange/green issue”, especially with the key issue of the border with the Republic of Ireland still to be resolved:

There is undoubtedly a new impetus that’s been given around the border issue … What we want to see are practical ways of addressing the border issues.

The public should have the final say on a deal, she adds.

Long suggests her party could make advances next week:

We’re certainly in serious contention for two Westminster seats at least.

I think there is a weariness with the orange/green politics.

And with the stalling of talks to revive power-sharing at Stormont, she adds:

At the moment, we do not have the devolved institutions to make a case on our behalf.

The government at Westminster has not been one that had had any sensitivity to Northern Ireland’s issues … There is a tone deafness in the government to what Northern Ireland’s needs are.

Naomi Long interviewFile photo dated 16/04/15 of Alliance Party leader Naomi Long who has said DUP special advisers were “running ministers” during the last administration. PRESS ASSOCIATION Photo. Issue date: Sunday January 29, 2017. The East Belfast MLA said that the way special advisers (Spads) operated in the executive had been “allowed to get out of hand”. See PA story ULSTER Politics. Photo credit should read: Brian Lawless/PA Wire
Naomi Long. Photograph: Brian Lawless/PA

Updated

Some in the comments below would like to see Jeremy Corbyn’s fuller statement condemning the antisemitic abuse that was directed at Emma Barnett after she interviewed the Labour leader on Woman’s Hour yesterday.

Speaking later on Tuesday at the launch of the party’s race and faith manifesto, he said:

It is totally and absolutely and completely unacceptable for anyone to throw abuse at anyone else. Under no circumstances whatsoever should anyone throw personal abuse at anyone else because they’re doing the job that they’re employed to do. And I will not tolerate it under any circumstances.

He added, on the questioning over the cost of Labour’s childcare pledge:

I didn’t have the exact figure in front of me, so I was unable to answer that question – for which, obviously, I apologise. But I don’t apologise for what’s in the manifesto and I will explain exactly what the cost is: it’s £4.8bn by the end of the parliament and it means that 1 million children will get free childcare, 30 hours per week, between the years of two and four.

(The quotes are from Politics Home.)

Updated

Welsh (not quite) leaders' debate

Last night, it was time for the event all of Wales was waiting for (kind of): the Welsh leaders’ debate! Except it wasn’t quite a leaders’ debate.

There was a bit of drama in Camp Welsh Conservative, meaning the biggest excitement of the night was before the BBC debate even got started. Assembly member Darren Millar, the Conservative education spokesman in Wales, ended up representing the party onstage as it emerged neither the leader, Andrew RT Davies, nor the Welsh secretary, Alun Cairns, would be taking part. The kerfuffle exposed a divide within the Welsh Conservatives as Davies’s spokesman released an extraordinary statement:

It led to some easy wins for other leaders. Plaid Cymru’s Leanne Wood quipped that she wanted some answers from the Conservatives on Brexit guarantees, but the Welsh leader was, alas, “on holiday”.

Away from inter-party politics, the big debate of the night, was, of course, about Brexit. Wales voted overwhelmingly for Brexit despite receiving quite a lot of funding from the EU, so what effects will it have on Wales?

The audience guffawed as Millar claimed it would be “right at the heart” of Brexit talks, but the other party representatives (because Millar is not the Welsh Conservative leader, remember) weren’t so sure. First minister Carwyn Jones and Wood both targeted Theresa May’s perceived lack of a Brexit plan, let alone a plan for Wales. And, in line with the rest of his party, Mark Williams of the Lib Dems was very clear on its anti-Brexit policy.

The only voice chiming with Millar was Ukip’s Neil Hamilton, who claimed there would be “plenty in the coffers” for Wales post-Brexit. Though he also seemed a little shaky on exactly how much money Wales got from the EU.

An interesting point: Jones very much presented himself as the true defender of Wales, a campaign move that is also at the heart of Plaid Cymru’s manifesto. Jeremy Corbyn was barely mentioned by the Welsh Labour leader, who maintained his party’s interest in making sure Wales gets the money it was promised by the leave campaign.

While Jones is not standing in the general election, it’s clear Welsh Labour won’t let the Conservatives take Wales without a fight.

Updated

The Snap: your election briefing

Welcome to the last day of May, a joke I am allowed to employ because it is before breakfast but that will almost immediately become overused and infuriatingly unfunny. I’m Claire Phipps with the morning roundup and the day’s early politics news; Andrew Sparrow will be along later. Join us in the comments below or find me on Twitter @Claire_Phipps.

What’s happening?

After Theresa May burned the nation’s brains with talk of Jeremy Corbyn going “naked in the negotiating chamber” for Brexit talks – yes, it’s a version of an Aneurin Bevan quote; no, that’s not what most people took from it – it’s clear that the final week of the election campaign is going to get personal.

Personal isn’t always offputting, of course: Corbyn’s appearance on the One Show to chat about his love of manhole covers and refereeing under-10s (easier to wrangle than the PLP, he confirms) was warmly received as “human”, a quality often perceived as incompatible with “politician”.

Manhole covers, jam and allotments: Jeremy Corbyn on The One Show

But his F5-and-you’ll-miss-it Mumsnet webchat won fewer fans, even among the handful of posters who had their questions answered in his 25-minute visit:

Wellysocksbox: Jezza answered my question first! GET IN!! Still voting LibDem though.

That came, of course, after the Woman’s Hour run-in where Corbyn stumbled over the cost of the childcare pledge he’d gone on air to plug – memo to Labour politicians: if you have to go naked into the studio, at least scribble the numbers on the back of your hand – but here it was interviewer Emma Barnett for whom things got personal. The Labour leader later condemned as “unacceptable” the antisemitic abuse heaped upon her by some of his backers on Twitter.

It’s pick a theme and stick to it week, as May continues today to pound the Brexit line, and Corbyn doubles down on public services. The leak to the Daily Mail and the Telegraph of a “secret plan” to extend visas to unskilled overseas workers has been batted away by the Corbyn camp as “not a statement of Labour policy” but a discussion paper; expect the PM to discuss it as she heads to south-east England for another speech warning of the need for stability ahead of Brexit talks that fall inconveniently right after the election she called.

Branded mugs, bearing the name of Britain’s Prime Minister, and Leader of the Conservative party, Theresa May are pictured on the COnservative party’s election “battle” bus in Wolverhampton, central England, on May 30, 2017, as campaigning continues in the build up to the general election on June 8. / AFP PHOTO / POOL / Leon NealLEON NEAL/AFP/Getty Images
A load of mugs. Photograph: Leon Neal/AFP/Getty Images

There’s still a slim chance that Corbyn will pitch up for the BBC leaders’ debate this evening. He’s previously said he would not appear without May, who is sending Amber Rudd as a stand-in. But bouncing from the One Show and Monday night’s Sky News interview, and with a BBC Question Time special to come on Friday, he might fancy another peak-time outing. Squeeze in Springwatch on Thursday and he’d have the week sewn up.

A no-show dominated the Welsh leaders’ debate last night, too, with both the Welsh secretary Alun Cairns and Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies giving it a swerve. A snippy statement from Davies – gist: if Cairns can’t be bothered to turn up, why should I interrupt my wedding anniversary holiday? – gave those who did appear, including Labour’s Carwyn Jones and Plaid Cymru’s Leanne Wood, plenty to lob at the Tories’ reported resurgence. Stick with the live blog for more on that shortly.

Meanwhile, the SNP launched its manifesto, breaking the referendum/general election/referendum/general election pattern by giving us a year off in 2018: indyref2 would come “at the end of the Brexit process”, it pledges. Check out the key points and analysis here.

At a glance:

Poll position

What to make of the Times/YouGov seat projection that puts May short of an overall majority? The modelling pushes the Tories down to 310 seats from the 330 they held before dissolution; gives Labour 257, up from 229; and awards the Lib Dems an extra seat, taking them to 10. The prediction would leave the SNP with 50 of the 54 seats they are defending; Plaid Cymru and the Greens would stay as they were, on three and one. (There is no breakdown for Northern Ireland seats.) The takeaway? The Tories would be 16 seats away from a Commons majority.

The Times says the modelling is “based on 50,000 interviews over the course of a week” with a voter panel convened by YouGov. But it also concedes:

The projection allows for big variations, however, and suggests that the Tories could get as many as 345 seats on a good night, 15 more than at present, and as few as 274 seats on a bad night.

Should we pay any heed? Many, including Newsnight’s Chris Cook, were scathing:

Meanwhile, in utterly contradictory polling news (is there any other kind?), a fresh ICM poll for the Guardian put the Tory advantage at 12 points, 45% v 33%, with Labour skimming two points off the leaders since last week.

Diary

  • The humanist funeral for former Welsh first minister Rhodri Morgan takes place at 11am at the Senedd in Cardiff.
  • Jeremy Corbyn will make a speech in London this morning centring on the NHS, social care and schools.
  • Nick Clegg will also focus on schools as he shows off a new Lib Dem poster.
  • The Scottish Liberal Democrats publish their manifesto at 12.15 in Edinburgh.
  • Ukip Scotland follows suit at 1.30pm in the same city.
  • Theresa May is campaigning in south-west England, well away from the BBC studio in Cambridge…
  • …where at 7.30pm Mishal Husain hosts the BBC leaders’ debate. Amber Rudd, Tim Farron, Caroline Lucas, Angus Robertson, Paul Nuttall, Leanne Wood and Someone* from Labour will take part. (*Possibly Emily Thornberry, but the party hasn’t ruled out a last-minute substitution.)
  • And 5pm today is the deadline to apply for a proxy vote; find out how here. Unless you’re in Northern Ireland, in which case try here.

Read these

Alison Rowat in the Scotsman says the SNP leader is playing a dangerous game with talk of a progressive alliance:

Talking Labour down in Scotland outwith election periods, and raising the possibility of a pact as soon as an election is called, is fine as long as there is no other place for the votes of Scottish Labour supporters to go. That was the case in 2015, but now? It has perhaps not occurred to Ms Sturgeon that Labour voters might be wearying of being treated like voting fodder, their ballots smoothing the way to a second referendum at a time of her choosing. While they may not be able to stomach voting Tory in June, there is a more than fair chance that this time, particularly if they were Leave or No supporters, they will be considering voting tactically. At her manifesto launch yesterday, Ms Sturgeon repeated the claim that ‘only the SNP can keep the Tories in check’. Not in every case, first minister. Hell hath no fury like a voter who thinks they are being taken for granted.

SNP Leader Nicola Sturgeon SNP ManifestoScottish First Minister and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon speaks at the launch of the SNP Manifesto for the 2017 General Election on Tuesday 30 May at the Perth Concert Hall, Mill Street, Perth, Scotland UK 30/05/2017 © COPYRIGHT PHOTO BY MURDO MACLEOD All Rights Reserved Tel + 44 131 669 9659 Mobile +44 7831 504 531 Email: m@murdophoto.com STANDARD TERMS AND CONDITIONS APPLY See details at http://www.murdophoto.com/T%26Cs.html No syndication, no redistribution. sgealbadh, A22DEX
Nicola Sturgeon at the launch of the SNP manifesto. Photograph: Murdo Macleod for the Guardian

Alice Thomson in the Times says a little-noticed Tory pledge could have significant ramifications:

Tucked away on page 50 of the Conservative party manifesto is a mild-mannered, seemingly inoffensive line that is designed to be overlooked. I suspect it’s meant to sound so harmless and boring it’s hard to get to the end of the sentence – but try: ‘We will replace the unfair and ineffective inclusivity rules that prevent the establishment of new Roman Catholic schools, instead requiring new faith schools to prove that parents of other faiths and none would be prepared to send their children to that school.’

Stultifyingly dull, yes, but incredibly important. What the manifesto is saying is that the Tories are determined to lift the 50% cap on selection of pupils by faith that was introduced 10 years ago to prevent our education system becoming ghettoised. In other words, they are encouraging segregation in our playgrounds.

Revelation of the day

The LGBT hustings organised by Stonewall, Pink News, and Pride in London last night saw education secretary Justine Greening – who said last year she was in a same-sex relationship – label the prime minister the “unsung hero” of recent equality legislation. Others attending, including Lib Dem peer Brian Paddick, weren’t so sure that the woman who voted against the repeal of Section 28 was a champion of gay rights. Ukip’s thoughts on that, and every other issue raised, remain a mystery, though. As the moderator explained:

We did invite Ukip, but they didn’t reply to any of our emails.

The day in a tweet spat

James Cleverly – who tweeted a succession of minority ethnic Tory ministers and candidates – communities secretary Sajid Javid and junior minister Sam Gyimah were among the Conservative candidates to offer … gratitude:

And another thing

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