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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
Politics
Georgina Hayes (now): Andrew Sparrow, Jedidajah Otte and Kate Lyons (earlier)

General election: leaders stake out climate credentials in Channel 4 debate – live news

Evening summary

  • Party leaders took part in Channel 4’s climate debate, while Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage refused to attend. With Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage refusing to take part (and getting replaced by melting ice sculptures), the leaders of the Greens, Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid Cymru and Labour took part in a relatively straightforward debate. While there were some barbs over the records of the Lib Dems, SNP and Labour in government, the debate mostly focused on how each party would out-bid the other in the fight against climate change. You can read the Guardian’s analysis of the event here.
  • Conservatives and Channel 4 row: Tories threaten Channel 4 after it replaced Boris Johnson with an ice sculpture . In an ongoing and worsening row between the Conservative party and Channel 4 News, the Tories have threatened to review the channel’s broadcasting remit after it replaced Boris Johnson with a melting ice sculpture following his failure to attend the leaders’ climate debate. Channel 4 News editor Ben de Pear then took to Twitter to accuse the Conservative party of behaving like Donald Trump, following Tory party chairman James Cleverly claiming that “this is not a presidential election”. Read the full story from the Guardian’s media editor Jim Waterson here.
  • Michael Gove attempts to attend the leaders’ debate on behalf of the Conservatives, and gets confronted by a 15-year-old climate activist. Michael Gove and the prime minister’s father, Stanley Johnson, turned up at the Channel 4 climate debate to ask if Gove could speak on behalf of the Conservatives. The broadcaster declined, as the debate was for party leaders only. Gove was also confronted by 15-year-old climate activist Izzy Warren, who challenged him on the Tories’ record on the environment in government.
  • SNP suspends election candidate over alleged anti-Semitism. Neale Hanvey, who was set to contest the marginal seat of Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath currently held by Labour, has been stripped of his candidacy and suspended from the party.
  • BBC demands the Tories take down a Facebook ad featuring its presenters, arguing that the footage could damage the perception of impartiality. The paid-for advert uses selective footage of the BBC’s political editor Laura Kuenssberg and News at Ten host Huw Edwards to argue that chaotic debates over Brexit can be avoided if people vote Conservative. The BBC said its footage had been used without permission and asked the Conservatives to stop using the material in this manner.
  • Labour to launch regional manifestos in England under plans to hand ‘wealth and power back to every community’, which include several pledges on housing, transport and green jobs
  • Tory HQ warns party’s supporters against election complacency following predictions that Boris Johnson will reap a comfortable majority. “If the polls are wrong by a few points, and they have been wrong before, we end up with a hung parliament. Our team know that, and now we have to convince the public. There should be no complacency or let-up or change of direction. We will continue with our central messages: get Brexit done, more hospitals, more nurses, more police,” a senior party source said.

That’s all from me tonight.

Labour to launch 'regional manifestos' in England

Labour will launch a manifesto in every region of England under plans to hand “wealth and power back to every community”. The manifestos will include pledges on transport, housing and jobs.

The manifestos will be launched alongside further details of the party’s £250bn Green Transformation Fund, which the party said is an “investment blitz” on a scale unseen since the Second World War.

Shadow chancellor John McDonnell said the announcement will “bring our country back together”.

The pledges include a number of transport projects, such as:

  • Northern Powerhouse Rail - improving connections between Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Hull, and Newcastle, and cutting journey times
  • Investment in the Midlands Mainline railway
  • Electrification of lines around Bristol Temple Meads

There are also several pledges on green jobs, including:

  • Three new steel recycling plants in Redcar, Workington and Corby, which Labour says will create over 1,000 jobs in each town
  • Nine plastics remanufacture and recycling sites - one for each region
  • Three electric vehicle battery plants in Stoke, Swindon and South Wales - creating 5,000 jobs in each location
  • Investment in green energy manufacturing supply chains for eight ports

Emma Barnett grills Lib Dem deputy leader Ed Davey on the “toxicity” associated with Jo Swinson’s record in government with the Conservatives, and who the Lib Dems could realistically support to be prime minister.

On whether the Lib Dems underestimated the “toxicity” associated with Swinson’s role in the coalition government, Davey said that she is “going down really well in the seats that we need”.

Admitting that it is “unlikely” the Lib Dems win a majority, he refused to answer who the party could plausibly support as prime minister.

“You will get Liberal Democrat MPs voting issue by issue,” he said, adding that the Lib Dems would not support Jeremy Corbyn or Boris Johnson.

He added that he believes there will be “a lot” of parliamentary movement following the next election, and that the parties may change leader.

“People aren’t looking for a bowel movement, they’re looking for a prime minister,” Barnett responded.

Emma Barnett asks Labour’s Lucy Powell on BBC Newsnight how she would campaign in a confirmatory referendum - something that is in Labour’s Brexit policy.

Powell said that she will “probably vote remain”, but thinks “we are some way off that”.

She added that she has spent the last few months “trying to get a compromise deal through parliament” as she believed it was “the best way of bringing the country together”.

This comes after Labour’s Clive Lewis was unable to say what percentage of the shadow cabinet would campaign to remain.

Emma Barnett asks Charles Walker, vice-chair of the Conservative’s 1922 Committee, what the prime minister is afraid of, in reference to his refusal to attend several televised debates between party leaders and his failure to secure an interview date with Andrew Neil.

“If you ask me, I wouldn’t do Andrew Neil,” Walker responded.

Emma Barnett rebuts: “Andrew Neil isn’t a criminal, he’s a journalist.”

Walker continues: “Boris will do what he wants to do. He is the prime minister.”

He later adds that if he himself were to be interviewed by Neil, Neil would tear him “to pieces”.

Emma Barnett responds: “Let’s not demonise journalists, shall we?”

Updated

Labour’s shadow treasury minister Clive Lewis tells BBC Newsnight that he couldn’t say what percentage of the shadow cabinet would campaign for remain in the instance of a second referendum.

Krishnan Guru-Murthy has now taken to Twitter to respond to Michael Gove’s claim that Jeremy Corbyn and Nicola Sturgeon refused to debate a Conservative, in an ongoing row between Channel 4 News and the Conservative party:

The Twitter spat between the Conservatives and Ben de Pear, the editor of Channel 4 News, continues:

Labour’s Deputy Leader Tom Watson says it is “deeply concerning” for Boris Johnson to threaten Channel 4 with its public service broadcasting licence for replacing him with an ice sculpture when he failed to turn up to tonight’s climate debate.

Tom Watson has written to Ofcom to urge the regulator to “call out this meddling”.

His letter adds: “Boris Johnson has banned the Daily Mirror from its battle bus, ducked the Andrew Neil interview and now attempted to bully Channel 4.

“It’s simple. If the Prime Minister didn’t want to be embarrassed by being replaced with an ice sculpture, he should have turned up to the debate.

“The truth is, Boris Johnson is in hiding because his record of failure on the climate emergency is indefensible.”

The campaign group Grime4Corbyn has claimed a Conservative win at the general election could lead to people “dying from austerity cuts” and “freezing to death in their homes”.

Co-organiser Sofia Mason, 34, described the Tory party as “racist and harmful for our communities” and urged voters to opt for Labour in December.

The Grime 4 Corbyn campaign group was inspired by grime artists expressing their support for the Labour leader at the 2017 election, and works with musicians to put on events.

Updated

More on the story of the SNP candidate for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, Neale Hanvey, who was stripped of his candidacy following alleged antisemitism:

In a statement issued via his Twitter account, Hanvey issued an “unequivocal apology” for posting two items which he now realised were offensive and inappropriate. He said he fully supported the SNP’s decision to remove him as its candidate and suspend his party membership pending investigation.

He confirmed one was a Sputnik article which pictured Soros holding two world leaders as puppets, but did not realise that was an antisemitic trope. “I did not give any thought to Mr Soros’s faith. [I] fully accept that this was wrong,” Hanvey said.

The second post drew parallels between the treatment of Palestinians today with the “unconscionable” treatment of Jews in Europe during the second world war. “This was insensitive, upsetting and deeply offensive”, Hanvey said.

Both posts were “dreadful errors of judgment,” he said. “I accept there may not be the words to express my regret for those I have offended but I am genuinely and deeply sorry.”

Updated

BBC demands Tories take down Facebook ad featuring its presenters

The BBC is demanding the Conservatives take down Facebook adverts featuring footage of its journalists Laura Kuenssberg and Huw Edwards, arguing that their inclusion could damage perceptions of the corporation’s impartiality.

The paid-for advert uses footage of the BBC’s political editor and the News at Ten host to argue that chaotic debates over Brexit can be avoided if people vote Conservative.

The move is in common with other intentionally provocative stunts pulled by the Conservatives during this campaign, such as rebranding their press office Twitter account as a fact checker.

Read more from the Guardian’s media editor, Jim Waterson, below:

15-year-old Izzy Warren, the climate change activist from West London who confronted Michael Gove as he arrived at Channel 4 earlier, has spoken to the Guardian.

“I just saw a really good opportunity to find out why Boris Johnson, the current prime minister, doesn’t view my generation’s future as a priority, why he doesn’t think it deserves his time,” she said.

“I asked Gove why, if the Conservatives think this is a priority, the prime minister wasn’t here today,” said Warren. He told her that it shouldn’t matter who was there to speak and that they had the most ambitious manifesto ever on climate change.

“This is a party that has been in power for ten years and we haven’t seen climate action,” she said.

Asked if he looked surprised, she added: “I think older men, quite frankly, aren’t used to being challenged by teenage girls. Which makes it all the more fun when you get to do it.”

Here is video footage of Michael Gove getting confronted by Warren outside the Channel 4 studios in London:

Updated

Green party deputy leader, Amelia Womack, echoed Gruffydd’s frustration with the main parties.

Speaking backstage, she said that it was frustrating to see parties who had been in government and opposition and who had previously taken no action, “feeling the time is now” to say it is their priority.

She acknowledged that it was a welcome development that there was a TV debate on the subject. “It was only 2017 when [Green MP] Caroline Lucas was walking around Westminster with a big green question mark asking where the environment was in the public debate and just a few years later it’s become a central topic that parties are going to get held to account for.”

Updated

Llyr Gruffydd, a Plaid Cymru Welsh assembly member for north Wales, was watching the debate from backstage.

“It always riles me to hear Jeremy Corbyn making these promises when we’ve had twenty years of Labour governments in Wales,” he said. “They are getting away with that all the time. In places where they have the power to affect that change, we’re just not seeing it.”

He repeated criticism by the party’s leader Adam Price of Labour’s plans to nationalise the gas grid. “They are going to pump tens of billions of pounds into buying infrastructure that they are effectively going to mothball and that’s money that they could actually invest in renewable energy. That’s questionable.”

Gruffydd described the suggestion that Channel 4 had conspired with Jeremy Corbyn to block the Conservatives from the debate as nonsense. “It’s so Cummings-eque,” he said. “It’s exactly the kind of thing we’ve learned to expect from the Tories. If they can’t engage in the debate then it’s toys and prams stuff.”

Updated

Conservative party chairman James Cleverly and Channel 4 News editor Ben de Pear have shared a frank exchange of opinion on Twitter:

Updated

A Conservative party spokesperson has accused Channel 4 of bias.

“We are deeply disappointed that Channel 4 News has conspired with Jeremy Corbyn to block the Conservatives from making the case for tackling climate change and protecting the environment in this evening’s debate,” they said.

“Under this Government the UK was the first advanced economy in the world to legislate for a net zero target and we’ve reduced emissions faster than any other advanced economy while continuing to grow our economy. Broadcasters have important responsibilities to present a balanced debate representing all parties, and Michael Gove was well qualified to represent the Conservative position at this evening’s debate.”

Michael Gove was turned away from the debate, which was for party leaders only, after Boris Johnson refused to attend.

The Conservatives are now threatening to review the channel’s broadcasting remit after it decided to replace Boris Johnson with a melting ice sculpture during the debate.

This from Holly Gillibrand, a 14-year-old FridaysForFuture activist in Scotland on the climate debate:

Michael Gove confronted by 15-year-old climate activist as he tries to get into Channel 4 debate

Michael Gove, who attempted to replace Boris Johnson in the Channel 4 climate debate, was confronted at the channel’s London studios by a 15-year-old climate activist.

As he was turned away from the debate after being told it was for party leaders only, he was confronted by Izzy Warren, who lambasted the prime minister’s failure to attend.

She told him: “What young people think is Boris Johnson’s showing up to discuss Brexit, he’s showing up to discuss all these other issues.

“And actually he’s not here to talk about the climate. He’s not here to talk about what is ultimately the most pressing issue.”

Michael Gove - a former environment secretary - replied: “I’m here. I can talk about it.”

You can watch the exchange in full below:

An update on the attempt by the Conservative party to have Michael Gove take Boris Johnson’s place in the Channel 4 leaders’ climate debate, which was rejected:

Watching the debate in “the spin room” the prime minister’s father, Stanley Johnson, insisted that Gove had been “absolutely geared up to represent the Conservative party and the prime minister”.

“Michael Gove would have made a big, big contribution,” he said, adding that he suspected the other party leaders had realised that the chancellor of the duchy of Lancaster “would have wiped the floor with them”.

SNP suspends candidate over alleged anti-Semitism

Moving away from the climate debate, the SNP candidate for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, a key SNP target seat defended by Corbyn ally Lesley Laird, has been stripped of his candidacy over alleged anti-Semitism.

Neale Hanvey, who was widely expected to win the seat, has been stripped of his candidacy and suspended from the party pending disciplinary action.

Read the full story from our Scotland editor, Severin Carrell, here:

Channel 4 News presenter Krishnan Guru-Murthy said the invitation for Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage to come and debate the climate emergency “remains open”.

In concluding the climate debate, Mr Guru-Murthy said: “Thank you to all our party leaders who came tonight. Thank you also to Michael Gove from the Conservative Party who did come here, but sadly, as we made clear from the start, this debate was for leaders only and our leaders were only prepared to debate other leaders.

“Our offer to Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage to come here and discuss the climate emergency remains open.”

The Tories have threatened to review Channel 4’s broadcasting remit following the channel’s decision to replace Boris Johnson with a melting ice sculpture during the debate.

Asked about his own personal resolution in relation to climate, Corbyn said: “I’m always the last one to turn the heating on. In fact, we turned it on for the first time last week in my house, and that was very low temperature anyway, and I turned it off pretty quickly after that.

“I’m quite miserable actually on this basis, because I don’t like to see the waste of energy that goes with it.”

Corbyn also said he grows plants in his garden and allotment.

Berry was the last leader asked, and she said that so many pledges “end up on a dusty shelf”, adding: “I just cannot sit back and watch this happen again. Greta Thunberg is only a teenager, she’s already sick of hearing broken promises.

“Think how I feel at my age.”

The leaders were asked what their personal climate change resolutions are.

Sturgeon said that at home, her energy provider is one that gets all its energy from renewable sources, adding that she is trying to fly less.

“Sometimes it’s inescapable in the job that I do, but trying to use the train much more when I come to London, as I did today for example,” she said.

Sturgeon also said she is “much more conscious” about what she eats and where her food is sourced from.

Swinson mentioned a keep cup and recycling, and pointed out that her campaign bus is electric.

Price said he plans to start cycling and will shift to an electric vehicle in the new year, adding: “I convinced my partner as well we’re going to give a go with reusable nappies as well to make our own small but important contribution.”

Sturgeon said Scotland’s transition away from fossil fuels needs to accelerate.

She said: “We’re in the transition away from fossil fuels, and that transition has to accelerate.”

On the need for decarbonisation of the gas grid, Sturgeon added: “There’s not enough priority being given to that by the current UK government and I hope that changes after the election.”

Price also pledged that Plaid Cymru would invest £5bn in retrofitting homes.

Factcheck

Claim: Jeremy Corbyn is promising to plant 2bn trees by 2040

Reality: The government must already adhere to the Committee for Climate Change target of 1.5bn trees by 2050. Jeremy Corbyn’s pledge is for more trees in 20 rather than 30 years. This means 100m trees must be planted a year to expand woodland and make up for losses. This is ambitious, but is not impossible and not out of synch with what experts say.

Factcheck

Claim: Nicola Sturgeon said that last year 85% of the UK’s tree planting took place in Scotland.

Reality: That is correct but the Scottish government has repeatedly failed to meet its national tree-planting targets, set at 10,000 hectares (24,700 acres) a year from 2010.

Official data shows that from 2010 to 2017, Scotland’s planting rate averaged 6,800 hectares a year, well below target. Of that, only 820 hectares was planted annually by Forest Enterprise, the government-funded forestry agency, and the rest by private companies or charities.

The overall target was met for the first time last year, when 11,200 hectares were planted.

Sturgeon’s government has agreed to greatly increase tree planting in line with recommendations from the UK committee on climate change, which says Scotland can reach net zero five years early than the UK as a whole partly because it has much greater scope for tree planting. However, the Scottish government has yet to decide on how to do so.

Mr Corbyn said everything possible must be done to reach a 2030 net zero emissions target.

The Labour leader said: “I think we have to do everything we can to get to a 2030 net zero emissions target and we do that by investment in green energy jobs, solar, wind and wave power, we do that by creating jobs and transforming our energy consumption, by retrofitting homes to make them environmentally sustainable.”

He added: “I want to host COP26 next year to go further than Paris, so we can be leaders on the world stage in setting the agenda of achieving this degree of sustainability by 2030.”

Ms Sturgeon added that Scotland’s targets are “the toughest in the world” and that they are going “beyond what the Committee on Climate Change has said”.

Also calling for the 2030 target, Mr Price said it was a shame that Labour’s manifesto only pledged to get “the majority” of emissions down by 2030, and called on a future UK government to “show the same level of ambition” as other countries.

Ms Swinson said Liberal Democrats “believe it is absolutely possible to get there by 2045”.

Factcheck

Claim: Siân Berry, co-leader of the Green Party claims that pasture land used for meat need to be changed to reach carbon neutrality.

Reality: The government’s advisory Committee for Climate Change says a 20-50% reduction in beef and lamb pasture could release 3-7m hectares of grassland from the current 12m hectares in the UK.

Plaid Cymru’s Adam Price claimed that this did not mean fewer cattle because grass can bank carbon.

But the CCC found that un-needed grassland could instead grow forests and biofuels that would help to soak up CO2.

Price said farmers are “custodians of the environment”, adding that they should be seen as “allies” and not “enemies”.

He added: “We need to be buying more locally, we need to create local food systems.”

Swinson: We need to make sure that we have a target for all new build homes to be zero carbon. The Conservatives scrapped those plans. We would pay for low income homes to have insulation fitted.

Corbyn: We can and do retrofit homes. We don’t have to destroy the countryside with fracking. We don’t have to carry on in this way. Labour’s manifesto sets out large green transformation fund. Social housing will get that done. We will pay for low income houses. Everyone else will be offered an interest-free loan. People will get the benefit of it in lower bills.

Berry: Is this realistic? You’ve got to do it in a comprehensive way. More than half of UK emissions are from our buildings and homes. “It’s not sexy” going around putting insulation in people’s homes so successive governments have ignored it. Of £100bn a year in our Green New Deal, £38bn needs to go into homes. We need a deeper retrofit than what Labour are proposing. We can change everyone’s boilers to a heat pump, but only if we insulate first.

Sturgeon: We must prioritise transport and heat. We in Scotland already have a home energy efficiency programme. Already put hundreds of millions into helping people insulate their homes. Some people will have to pay, but government has a big part to play. Scotland cannot de-carbonise the gas grid on its own. Transition away from fossil fuels must accelerate. If we were to stop oil production tomorrow we would make ourselves more reliant on imports. We must also focus on the justice of transition - can’t do this in a way that leaves people behind and decimates peoples’ jobs. The legacy of deindustrialisation is still there and we can’t make the same mistake.

Price: Wales can be there at the start of this new industrial revolution if we tap into that potential. We can reap the benefits of de-carbonisation and get there first.

Sian Berry of the Green party.
Siân Berry of the Green party. Photograph: Channel 4

Jeremy Corbyn insists there must be better bus services across the country, rather than just in London, in order to reduce air pollution through car use.

Siân Berry accuses other parties of “abstaining” on climate change over aviation, arguing that the focus must be on targeting frequent flyers.

Adam Price calls HS2 a “vanity project”, saying that Plaid Cymru do not support a third Heathrow airport runway either.

Updated

Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price.
Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price. Photograph: Kirsty O’Connor/PA

Siân Berry emphasises that the Greens want to cancel HS2, arguing that people want better public transport.

Jeremy Corbyn argues that many people in the UK are hungry or obese due to food pricing, saying that we must extend biodiversity in UK farms.

Adam Price of Plaid Cymru rejects the premise that we must reduce our dairy and meat intake, insisting that we need to be buying locally rather than importing.

Nicola Sturgeon reminds the audience that half of international flights are taken by less than 10% of the population. “We’ve got to make sure that industry and government are leading by example, rather than focusing on individuals,” the SNP leader said.

Jo Swinson mentions the Liberal Democrats’ policy of an international frequent flyer tax for those who take over three return flights a year.

Updated

channel 4 leaders debate

Green party co-leader Siân Berry has accused Labour of “weakening” the goal to reach net-zero emissions by 2030.

Jeremy Corbyn responded to say that Labour are not weakening the 2030 goal, but that the UK is only one country and it must be a global effort.

Nicola Sturgeon insisted that the best way to tackle the climate crisis is not to be squabbling with one another.

Jo Swinson emphasised the significance of remaining in the EU to tackle climate change.

Updated

The climate debate on Channel 4 has now started.

Clive Lewis, Labour’s Treasury spokesman, has called the prime minister a “coward and a bully” in response to the Conservative party’s threats to Channel 4 over its broadcasting remit.

He said: “Boris Johnson is a coward and a bully. He thinks he is born to rule and is so used to getting his own way that he turns nasty when anyone dares challenge him.

“Britain deserves a prime minister that has enough of a backbone to face up to scrutiny.”

Updated

The Tories are threatening to review Channel 4’s broadcasting remit if they win the general election, after the channel decided to replace Boris Johnson with a melting ice sculpture during its climate change debate tonight.

Our media editor, Jim Waterson, has the full story:

Michael Gove and the prime minister’s father, Stanley Johnson, have turned up at the Channel 4 event, with Gove wanting to speak in the climate debate on behalf of the Conservatives. The broadcaster refused him entry on the basis that he is not a party leader.

Ben de Pear, the editor of Channel 4 News, tweeted:

Hayley Barlow, Channel 4’s director of communications, said Gove was offered drinks and nibbles, but has now left the building.

Updated

Party leaders prepare for Channel 4 climate debate

Jeremy Corbyn, Jo Swinson, Nicola Sturgeon, Sian Berry (Green party) and Adam Price (Plaid Cymru) are preparing for Channel 4’s climate change debate which starts in less than half an hour.

Both Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage are to be replaced with melting ice sculptures after they refused to attend.

We will be keeping you updated on the debate via the live blog.

Georgina Hayes is now taking over the live blog for the rest of the night

Afternoon summary

Our campaign is in every part of the country. I am travelling all around the country. I say the same thing at every place I go. I don’t have one message for one group.

I say the same message everywhere. Vote Labour in order to get a government that will deal with the inequalities and poverty and injustice austerity has heaped on this country.

But the Guardian has been told that Labour is planning to change its approach, and having pursued a relatively offensive strategy (focusing on Tory-held seats), it now plans to concentrate more on shoring up the Labour vote in constituencies the party already holds. There have been reports saying that the party’s private polling shows it is vulnerable in leave seats but - as ever - private polling mostly replicates the results of polling that gets released to the public, and the YouGov survey highlighted this exact point. Here is an extract form the write-up from YouGov’s Anthony Wells:

If the election were held today we project that the Tories would win 359 seats (a gain of 42 from 2017), Labour would win 211 (down by 51), the SNP 43 (up eight) and the Liberal Democrats 13 (a gain of one). Plaid Cymru would retain their four seats, the Greens would keep their single seat, and the Brexit party would not take any seats at all.

As it stands, the swing to the Conservative party is bigger in areas that voted to leave in 2016, with the bulk of the projected Tory gains coming in the North and the urban West Midlands, as well as former mining seats in the East Midlands.

At this point in the campaign, the Liberal Democrats have not made any real breakthrough – with our current projections showing that while they would pick up four seats they would lose three elsewhere.

The survey has been acquired near-gospel status in the Westminster political system because in 2017 the YouGov MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) model (explained here, if you are interested) was about the one polling exercise that predicted a hung parliament. Perhaps this one will turn out to be accurate too, but there is no guarantee of that, and of course the campaign has another fortnight to run.

  • Jeremy Corbyn, Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister and SNP leader, Jo Swinson, the Lib Dem leader, Adam Price, the Plaid Cymru leader and Sîan Berry, the Green co-leader, have been preparing for a Channel 4 News leaders’ debate on the environment starting at 7pm. Boris Johnson has refused an invitation to appear, and reportedly Channel 4 is planning to replace him with an ice sculpture that should melt under the glare of the studio lights. There will be full coverage here.
  • Conservative candidates in the general election have been issued with a detailed 17-page dossier on how to attack Labour and Liberal Democrat rivals which contains numerous rehashed and potentially misleading claims, the Guardian can reveal. You can read the full dossier embedded in our story here.

That’s all from me for tonight.

My colleague Georgina Hayes is now taking over.

Updated

From the Mail on Sunday’s Harry Cole

Earlier in the comments MerlinUK was asking why the Guardian had not published the full text of the Tory briefing document, advising candidates how to attack Labour and Lib Dem rivals, mentioned in a story by my colleagues Hilary Osborne and Richard Partington.

Well, we’ve listened, and now we’ve uploaded the whole document. It is embedded in the story, which is here.

Nigel Farage, the Brexit party leader, has said he thinks Labour now accepts it cannot win the election. Speaking at a campaign event at a golf driving range earlier, and referring to reports that Labour has changed its campaign strategy, Farage said:

I think the truth of it is, they realise they are now fighting a defensive battle, they know they can’t win the election.

This is now a defensive strategy to try to hold the seats that they have held for decades, it’s almost an acceptance that they have lost the election.

Nigel Farage playing golf on a range at One Stop Golf in Hull.
Nigel Farage playing golf on a range at One Stop Golf in Hull. Photograph: Owen Humphreys/PA

Wintry sun is shining in East Renfrewshire, but the cold not discouraging the canvassers. This constituency, south of Glasgow, was once a safe Labour seat for Jim Murphy. It is home to Scotland’s largest Jewish community, returned a high remain vote in the EU referendum, and – according to last night’s YouGov poll - will be one of only two seats which the SNP will win from the Scottish Conservatives next month.

At a hustings organised by the Glasgow Jewish Representative Council on Wednesday night, the Labour candidate Carolann Davidson was blunt with the audience, reportedly telling them:

I won’t ask for your vote. We don’t deserve it. The Labour party from the leadership down has failed you ... I am here tonight to reassure your community.

Paul Masterton, for the Tories, described Jeremy Corbyn as “a threat to this community”, while his SNP challenger Kirsten Oswald described the Labour leader’s handling of antisemitism as “disgraceful”.

Today Labour activists described Jewish voters telling them directly that they could not support them while Corbyn remains leader, while more broadly they are losing votes on two fronts: unionist voters to Tories and anti-Tory voters to the SNP.

But SNP activists also note that the race remains very tight, and worry about people’s exhaustion with Brexit impacting on turnout.

Meanwhile, local Jewish groups welcomed the Labour candidate’s honesty, but emphasised that the the party leadership had to be held to account too. They told the Guardian that anxiety and nervousness remained around the prospect of a Labour government.

DUP's Nigel Dodds calls for inquiry into handling of Brexit negotiations

At the DUP election manifesto launch this morning Nigel Dodds, the DUP’s deputy leader, called for an inquiry into the handling of the Brexit negotiations. He said:

After this is done there should be a full proper inquiry set up at a high level into what went wrong with the British government negotiations. How can we have such a catastrophic conduct of negotiations in the most important issues of our time?

There are remainers who would also like to see an inquiry into Brexit, going much further, but there is no sign at the moment of either man party expressing an interest in the idea.

Labour received the most money in political donations in the second week of the election campaign, according to figures published by the Electoral Commission. Donations of more than £7,500 have to be reported and in the period between 13 November and 19 November more than £9m was donated in this way – up from £6.5m the previous week.

Labour received the most at £3.5m, ahead of the Conservatives with £3m and the Brexit party with £2.3m. The Liberal Democrats received £251,000, Plaid Cymru £70,000, the Greens £37,750 and the SNP £10,000.

As the Press Association reports, the single biggest donation was £3m from the Unite union to Labour.

The Conservatives received 61 donations over £7,500, the largest being from hedge fund manager Jonathan Wood, who gave £250,000. Two former Tory-backing businessmen donated to the Brexit party: Christopher Harborne, who gave £2m, and Jeremy Hosking, who gave £250,000.

Donations in second week of campaign
Donations in second week of campaign Photograph: Electoral Commission

Updated

When Boris Johnson raised the possibility of building a bridge between Northern Ireland and Scotland, one engineer said the idea was “bonkers”.

But, as the BBC’s Mark Devenport points out, it is (tentatively) in the DUP manifesto.

The manifesto is here (pdf). And this is what it says about the bridge.

If the feasibility study on a bridge between Northern Ireland and Scotland concludes positively, this should also be pursued with the national government and devolved institutions working together to take it forward.

Updated

The Brexit party leader Nigel Farage touring an indoor market in Hull today.
The Brexit party leader Nigel Farage touring an indoor market in Hull today. Photograph: Oli Scarff/AFP via Getty Images

This is very good on how Boris Johnson fights elections. It is a clip from Matthew McGregor, who worked for Labour on the Ken Livingstone campaign in 2008, when Johnson beat Livingstone for the London mayoralty.

This morning Jo Swinson was also asked about the YouGov MRP polling analysis suggesting the Lib Dems may gain just one seat at the election. She claimed it showed there was still “a huge amount to play for”. She explained:

What this poll shows is that there are 134 seats where either the Liberal Democrats are in first or second place as things stand. That shows there’s a huge amount to play for.

Jo Swinson during a roundtable on homelessness at Crisis’ Skylight Centre in East London this morning.
Jo Swinson during a roundtable on homelessness at Crisis’ Skylight Centre in east London this morning. Photograph: Aaron Chown/PA

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Swinson says Johnson 'not fit to be PM' because he's selfish, dishonest and divisive

Jeremy Corbyn has not sought to make Boris Johnson’s character an election issue. He has been fiercely critical of Johnson’s policies, but he prides himself on being someone who does not resort to personal character assassination. He has summed up his attitude using the Michelle Obama’s line “When they go low, we go high” (although that’s a better slogan than it is a guide to how her husband won the 2012 election – but that’s another story.)

But the Liberal Democrats are targeting Johnson personally. Chuka Umunna, the party’s foreign affairs spokesman, delivered a speech lambasting him on Monday, and this morning Jo Swinson, the party leader, followed that up with a speech entitled “the problem with Boris Johnson”. She said he only cared about himself.

Boris Johnson only cares about Boris Johnson. He will do whatever it takes, sacrifice whatever or whoever is needed to get what he wants.

This is a man who decided which side to support in the EU referendum by game-playing what would be most likely to get him the keys to Number 10.

His life has been about becoming prime minister. Not out of some burning desire to make people’s lives better, but out of some sense of Etonian entitlement, because it’s what people like him get to do.

Boris Johnson doesn’t care about you and your family. Just take the case of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe. A British mother wrongfully imprisoned, a small child devastated, separated from her mum. When he was talking about that case, his words would be used against Nazanin at her trial.

Swinson said Johnson was “not fit to be prime minister after lying to the Queen” over prorogation. She went on:

Boris Johnson is not fit to be prime minister not just because he doesn’t care, not just because he lies, but also because he is complicit in stoking division and fear in our communities.

Why else would Britain’s biggest racist, Tommy Robinson, be supporting him?

Honestly - such an endorsement would shame any decent person but Boris Johnson has no shame when it comes to the language he uses about race.

Whether this will make much difference is another matter. Negative campaigning can be effective, but Johnson, like Donald Trump, seems to be unusually impervious to this sort of criticism. Some people loath him because of his multiple character flaws. But other people don’t seem to mind ...

Jo Swinson giving a speech on Boris Johnson this morning in London.
Jo Swinson giving a speech on Boris Johnson this morning in London.
 Photograph: Tolga Akmen/AFP via Getty Images

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Conservative candidates in the general election have been issued with a detailed dossier on how to attack Labour and Liberal Democrat rivals, which contains numerous rehashed and potentially misleading claims, the Guardian can reveal. My colleagues Hilary Osborne and Richard Partington have the story here.

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McCluskey says it was 'wrong' and 'extraordinary' for chief rabbi to criticise Corbyn as he did

On Tuesday, when responding to the Times article by the chief rabbi, Ephraim Mirvis, saying he had allowed the “poison” of antisemitism to take root in Labour, Jeremy Corbyn was careful not to criticise Mirvis personally, or to question his right to speak out. Instead Corbyn just stressed his opposition to antisemitism, and explained what he had done to tackle the problem.

But on the World at One at few minutes ago Len McCluskey, the Unite general secretary and Corbyn’s most influential ally in the union movement, went a bit further. He said that he disagreed with Mirvis; but he also implied that Mirvis was wrong to speak out in this way during an election. Commenting on the chief rabbi’s article, McCluskey said:

I think that was wrong, and quite extraordinary that a religious leader should come out and say that ...

The reality is this; everybody should be concerned and sorry about the type of hurt that has been caused [to] the Jewish community. And Labour has fought, Jeremy has fought, I’ve fought all my life against antisemitism. Labour has now very robust procedures to deal with anybody. We don’t want a single antisemite in the Labour party. So that is the message.

When it was put to him that Mirvis would not have spoken out if he did not think there was a problem, McCluskey replied:

I’m sure that’s what he believes, if he said it. I just absolutely fundamentally disagree with him.

Len McCluskey, the Unite general secretary.
Len McCluskey, the Unite general secretary. Photograph: Ollie Millington/Getty Images

This is what Sajid Javid, the chancellor, said this morning about the IFS criticism of the Tories’ election plans. (See 9.50am, 10am and 10.45am.) In response to claims that the party was not being “honest” about its plans, he said:

We have also clearly set out exactly how we are going to fund them.

We have a very detailed costings document – the most detailed I would say that any party has published in any British election – so I’m very confident about that.

The claim that the Conservative party’s manifesto costings document is “the most detailed” ever is dubious. The document (pdf) runs to nine pages, and does contain costings for the manifesto promises. But the Labour equivalent (pdf) runs to 40 pages and it includes an analysis taking into account behavioural responses (ie, how changes to tax rates will impact on the number of people paying those tax rates, and the likely consequences for the exchequer). The Tory document does not contain this level of detail.

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Tory Brexit plan will lead to British firms producing 'not for Northern Ireland' goods, claims DUP

Unionists in Northern Ireland are united in opposition to Boris Johnson’s proposed Brexit deal, Nigel Dodds, the DUP’s deputy leader, said this morning. Speaking at the launch of his party’s election manifesto in Belfast, he said unionists would not accept plans that would effectively create a customs border in the Irish Sea. He said:

There can be no borders in the Irish Sea.

We will work to try to get a sensible Brexit deal.

But it cannot erect new barriers.

We need our people to come together, not create more division.

The DUP’s manifesto is also explicit on this. It says:

The east-west checks as proposed would lead to excessively bureaucratic burdens for trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland and consequently higher prices and less choice for consumers as GB businesses opt for ‘not available in Northern Ireland’.

Nigel Dodds at the DUP manifesto launch in Belfast.
Nigel Dodds at the DUP manifesto launch in Belfast. Photograph: Paul Faith/AFP via Getty Images

Updated

The latest Scottish opinion poll has given Nicola Sturgeon a mid-campaign boost by puting the Scottish National party at 44%, its highest rating since the 2017 election. The Ipsos Mori poll for STV has more grim news for Labour, putting its support at 16%.

The Ipsos poll also found the Conservatives have secured 26% of the vote, consistent with other recent polls, while the Liberal Democrats have failed to capitalise on Scotland’s strong pro-European sentiment, polling at just 11%.

Only six months after the Brexit party won a Scottish seat in the European parliament with 14.8% of the vote, Ipsos found its support in Scotland now too low to be effectively measured: it puts it at under 1%.

The Ipsos poll, one of the few done by random telephone surveys, has a chink of light for Labour and the Lib Dems. It said 23% of the 1,046 voters it polled last week have yet to make up their mind. While 84% of Tory and SNP voters have decided, only 73% of Labour supporters and 66% of Lib Dems were sure which way they would vote.

Even so, it suggests recent polls forecasting another dire election for Scottish Labour are correct.

Yesterday’s YouGov poll for the Times predicted Labour will only retain two of its seven seats, in Edinburgh South and Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill. Others say Labour can only save Edinburgh South, a seat held by the Scottish party’s most vehement critic of Jeremy Corbyn, Ian Murray.

Ipsos asked respondents to spontaneously list the most important topics for them at the election: 72% of Tories and 79% of Lib Dems put Brexit first; 67% of Labour voters prioritised the NHS, followed by Brexit, and 55% of SNP voters put Brexit first, with 46% mentioning independence and 45% the NHS.

It said Sturgeon was the only party leader not to have a negative satisfaction rating, but voters were split 48% to 48% on whether she was doing a good or bad job. Boris Johnson had a net satisfaction rating of -52, with 23% of Tory voters disliking him, while Jeremy Corbyn was -47, with 41% of Labour voters dissatisfied with him.

Jo Swinson, the Lib Dem leader, appears to be less unpopular in Scotland than other UK polls suggest. While 25% of voters had no opinion of her, her net satisfaction rating was the best of the UK leaders at -21%.

Nicola Sturgeon at the SNP manifesto launch yesterday.
Nicola Sturgeon at the SNP manifesto launch yesterday. Photograph: Robert Perry/EPA

Boris Johnson watching students Ruby Culter and Matthew Upright performing a science experiment during his visit to Chulmleigh College in Devon.
Boris Johnson watching students Ruby Culter and Matthew Upright performing a science experiment during his visit to Chulmleigh College in Devon. Photograph: POOL/Reuters

Q: The IFS says some of the Waspi women who will benefit from your £58bn compensation are quite well off. And getting rid of tuition fees will help the rich rather than the poor. Are you happy about your manifesto choices, when you could be spending more reversing benefit cuts.

Corbyn says the Waspi women were very badly treated. This is a specific cohort of people. Some of them have been driven into stress and deep debt by what happened. He says he has met them. They are living difficult lives. Some tried to go back to work, and were told to try apprenticeships. He says he thinks the treatment of them has been “disgraceful”. It is moral duty to pay them.

Corbyn says the question challenges the principle of universality. He says he wants education to be a right for everyone.

He will end universal credit, the two-child policy, the rape clause, and the wait to get benefits, he says.

Q: Your tree-planting policy implies 190 trees being planted every minute. Is it realistic?

Corbyn says he is not talking about one person doing the planting. It is a massive commitment, he admits.

Q: Do you support the Southampton airport extension?

Corbyn says any airport expansions under Labour will have to meet tests of sustainability, air pollution, noise pollution and traffic.

He says rail connectivity has improved. He has looked at prices for going to Berlin. A train fare costs £200. But you can fly for £19. That’s not right, he says.

He says his green manifesto, a Plan for Nature, is a serious plan. But government cannot implement it on its own. It needs communities to help, he says.

And that’s it. The Q&A has finished.

Jeremy Corbyn with Labour’s environment manifesto, a Plan for Nature.
Jeremy Corbyn with Labour’s environment manifesto, a Plan for Nature. Photograph: Glyn Kirk/AFP via Getty Images

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Q: In Southampton the Labour council recently abandoned plans to charge the most polluting vehicles being driven in the city. Shouldn’t councils be adopting ambitious policies in this regard?

Corbyn says he wants to give councils more power to integrate their transport systems, particularly bus services.

Q: Won’t creating a new national park in Dorset lead to more visitors coming to an already popular, making traffic and pollution worse?

Corbyn says Dorset is an incredibly beautiful area. He mentions Chesil beach in particular. He says making the area a national park would mean more money being available, and better controls. It would be there for all people.

He says it was the postwar Labour government that introduced national parks. And Chris Smith introduced the right to roam. Everyone should be able to enjoy the countryside, he says.

Q: How confident are you of gaining seats in the south? You have come through Dorset, which is as blue as it gets.

Corbyn says his message is for the whole country. He is confident of winning. He wants to see two Labour MPs in Southampton. (At the moment one is Labour and one is Tory.)

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Corbyn's Q&A

Jeremy Corbyn is now taking questions.

Q: What is your message to traditional Labour supporters who may be considering backing the Tories over Brexit?

Q: We have been told you are shifting strategy, to focus more on leave voters. Does that mean your campaign is not worked so far?

Corbyn says environmental problems can only be addressed on an international basis.

He says his plans on Brexit are “absolutely clear”. He summarises them: negotiating a new Brexit deal within three months, and holding a referendum within six months. As PM, he would make sure the referendum was fairly held, he says. He says people have got to come together.

He says he will take this message to every part of the country.

And he says he has the same message everywhere. He does not say one thing in one place, and another thing in another.

This point seems designed to address this CCHQ attack line.

Q: Downing Street has a big garden. How many trees would you plant personally if you become PM?

Corbyn says he has a nice hornbeam tree in a pot in his back garden. It was given to him by climate crisis protesters. He suggests the No 10 garden would be a really good place to plant it.

Q: The IFS says your plans are not credible. If they don’t believe you, why should the public?

Corbyn says the Labour manifesto is fully costed. He says he is happy to have it scrutinised.

And here is his peroration.

We are living in the jaws of a climate and environment emergency.

We cannot afford more wasted years of Conservative inaction from a government bought and paid for by the big polluters and the billionaires.

Labour is on your side and on the side of the environment.

Our Plan for Nature is a radical and innovative response to the emergency we face and it’s just part of the green transformation of our economy and society that a Labour government will bring about.

The future is ours to make provided we act now. Together, we can change course and leave a country and a planet that’s fit for the next generation.

Corbyn says he wants to protect habitats.

We’ll expand and restore our habitats and plant trees so that we can create natural solutions to bring down emissions and allow our wildlife to flourish, because currently wildlife is in crisis. Since 1970 the turtle dove population in Britain has declined by 97%. Animals that are part of our national culture are in frightening decline: the hedgehog, the natterjack toad and the red squirrel. Once these native species disappear they don’t come back.

We’ll take specific steps to protect and restore their populations. And on animal welfare we’ll ban fur, end the use of cruel snares and halt the badger cull.

And unlike the Conservatives you can trust that Labour will never allow the return of fox hunting.

We mistakenly left out Plaid Cymru in the post about parties taking part in tonight’s climate crisis debate on Channel 4 tonight (see 9.28am). The post has now been changed.

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Corbyn also confirms the plan to plant 2bn trees over the next 20 years.

Because a Labour government will set a target to plant 2 billion trees by 2040, starting with 300 million in our first term.

We’ll plant trees in national parks, we’ll plant them in the national forest, which we’ll look to extend to Sherwood Forest.

We’ll plant a million new trees on land owned by the health service, creating an NHS forest and we’ll work with communities to plant trees in towns and cities too.

These will be mixed native species creating wildlife-rich woodlands.

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Corbyn confirms plans for 10 new national parks

Corbyn is now confirming the plans for 10 new national parks.

A Labour government will create ten brand new national parks, increasing the total size of our national parks by 50% meaning three-quarters of people will live within 30 minutes of a national park.

We will consult widely on the exact locations of the parks but obvious candidates include: the Cotswolds, the Chilterns, the North and South Pennines, Coastal Suffolk, Coastal Dorset, and the Lincolnshire Wolds.

A new authority will be tasked with ensuring the parks help tackle the climate crisis and restore nature but they will also be for leisure and for beauty. When Labour created the first national parks in the wake of world war two it was part of a radical plan to open up the best of our nation to everyone, from all walks of life. That’s the spirit that a Labour government will take forward as we create ten more parks ... giving people access to the green spaces so vital for our collective wellbeing and mental health.

Our country is defined by its beautiful landscapes its rolling hills rugged coastlines and idyllic woodlands. Travelling around Britain by train as I do, I am so often in awe of the beauty that exists right here at home. A Labour government will protect that landscape which is so precious to us all.

Jeremy Corbyn giving his environment speech in Southampton.
Jeremy Corbyn giving his environment speech in Southampton. Photograph: Joe Giddens/PA

Corbyn says government must tackle this crisis now.

As David Attenborough said earlier this year: “We now stand at a unique point in our planet’s history, where we must all share responsibility ... for the future of life on earth.”

We have a choice. We can shut our eyes, cross our fingers and entrust our fate to a system that has already driven our planet to the brink of catastrophe. Or we can do everything possible to tackle the biggest threat we face.

That means taking on the big polluters who profit from the current system. If we flinch, then we will be handing down a broken planet to our children.

Bringing our carbon emissions down to net zero won’t happen by itself. It will only be possible with massive public investment in renewable energy and green technology. So a Labour government will bring about a green industrial revolution creating a million new, skilled, green jobs. One million jobs; from building wind turbines, to insulting homes, from reforesting the Great British countryside, to manufacturing new electric vehicles.

Corbyn is now talking about the climate crisis.

I’ve been deeply moved to see school children taking to the streets to protest about climate breakdown and I’m pleased we have some climate strikers here with us today. For someone of my generation it’s inspiring but also humbling to see children teaching the adults a lesson. But I’m proud that Labour has responded leading the British parliament to become the first in the world to declare a climate and environment emergency.

We can see the effects of that emergency all around us as the recent flooding in Yorkshire and the East Midlands tragically brought home with the death of Annie Hall.

A Labour government will invest in flood defences especially in areas like the North West, Yorkshire and the East Midlands that have been shamefully neglected by the Conservatives.

The reality is this election is our last chance to tackle the climate and environment emergency.

Corbyn claims election now 'fight for survival of NHS as public service"

Corbyn says the Tories have been caught “trying to cover things up”.

Yesterday Labour exposed “a secret plot” to sell out the NHS, he says.

He repeats the point he made in his speech yesterday about how he thinks the dossier released yesterday has “shredded” his claim that the NHS will not be on the table in UK-US trade talks.

He says “this election is now a fight for the survival of our NHS as a public service.”

(This is a claim that Labour tends to end up making at almost every election. Although it normally has some validity, when put like this it tends to be hyperbolic. Conservative governments have often been elected, and the NHS has survived as a public service.)

Jennie Formby, Labour’s general secretary, is introducing Jeremy Corbyn. She describes Southampton as her home town.

She introduces Corbyn as “the most decent, honest and inclusive man I know”.

Jeremy Corbyn's speech on the environment

Jeremy Corbyn is about to give a speech in Southampton on the environment.

There is a live feed at the top of the blog.

Boris Johnson with pupils from Chulmleigh College in Devon this morning.
Boris Johnson with pupils from Chulmleigh College in Devon this morning. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

Around 212,000 more people moved to the UK long-term in the last year than left, according to the latest estimates. As the Press Association reports, the net migration figures for the year ending in June, which looked at people coming to the country with the intention to stay for 12 months or more, were published by the Office for National Statistics this morning. After peak levels of more than 200,000 in 2015 and early 2016, EU net migration has dropped and now stands at 48,000 in the same period. This is largely because of a fall in EU immigration, which remains at its lowest level since the year ending March 2013, PA Media reports.

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Price NHS pays for drugs won't be on table in talks on UK-US trade deal, says Hancock

In an interview on the Today programme this morning, focusing mostly on the dossier published yesterday revealing what has been said about health policy in the UK-US talks about a possible trade deal, Matt Hancock, the health secretary, said drug prices would not be on the table in talks on a UK-US trade deal. He said:

In terms of drug pricing, we’ve said in our manifesto the price the NHS pays for drugs will not be on the table.

Asked why the leaked dossier does not say that the NHS and drugs prices would be exempt from the trade talks, Hancock replied:

There was no need to say that because our position is absolutely crystal clear.

This is what the Conservative manifesto (pdf) says about the proposed trade deal and the NHS.

When we are negotiating trade deals, the NHS will not be on the table. The price the NHS pays for drugs will not be on the table. The services the NHS provides will not be on the table.

Matt Hancock.
Matt Hancock. Photograph: Yui Mok/PA

Here is my colleague Kate Proctor, who has produced a fun video about whether or not holding a general election in December is a terrible idea.

IFS on Lib Dem manifesto plans: Childcare promise would create 'whole new leg of universal welfare state'

And this is what Paul Johnson, the IFS director, said about Lib Dem manifesto plans in his opening presentation.

  • The Lib Dems would almost quintuple spending on universal free childcare, the IFS says, “creating a whole new leg of the universal welfare state”.
  • The IFS says the Lib Dem plan to put a penny on the main rates of income tax is “simple, progressive and would raise a secure level of revenue”.
  • The Lib Dems’ plans imply lower borrowing than under Labour or the Tories, the IFS says. Johnson says:

They would appear to be the only one of these three parties which would put debt on a decisively downward path.

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IFS on Labour manifesto plans: 'Many millions outside top 5%' would 'clearly' pay more

And this is what Paul Johnson, the IFS director, said about Labour’s plan in his opening presentation.

  • It is “highly likely” that, at least over the longer-term, Labour would need to raise taxes beyond the measures already announced, the IFS says. And it says Labour would “clearly increase taxes for many millions outside the top 5%”.
  • Even though Labour would increase the size of the state, it would still leave the UK’s public spending as a proportion of national income lower than Germany’s, the IFS says.
  • It is “far too simplistic” to assume that Labour’s plans would increase growth, the IFS says. That is because, even though Labour would boost investment and pursue a softer Brexit, the scale of its ambition creates uncertainty.
  • Labour’s plan to abolish in-work poverty within a parliament is “not achievable”, the IFS says. It says the party’s plans for working-age welfare spending are “relatively modest”, undoing “only just over half the cuts implemented since 2015 and less than a quarter of those put in place since 2010”.
  • But in the longer term Labour’s policies would probably “reduce labour market inequality and hence in-work poverty, possibly risking slower increases in average earnings”, the IFS says.
  • The IFS says Labour’s plan to completely replace universal credit is “unwise”. It says it would be “expensive, disruptive and unnecessary”.
  • Labour would double current spending on universal free childcare, the IFS says.
  • The IFS is very critical of the decision to spend £58bn compensation the Waspi (Women against state pension inequality) women. Johnson says:

While many were not aware their state pension age was rising, and some have clearly suffered hardship as a result, the decision was taken at least 15 years before the increase in pension age and most in the group are relatively well off. To believe the whole group should receive compensation is a recipe for complete stasis in policy. How can you ever defend any policy which ever makes anyone worse off if you think this change in pension age, implemented with 15 years notice, designed to equalise treatment between men and women, and in the face of dramatic increases in life expectancy, is in some sense unethical?

  • The Labour plan to keep the state pension age at 66 is “an expensive promise”, the IFS says.
  • Labour’s corporation tax plan would increase corporate tax revenues to “their highest ever in the UK and to among the highest in the developed world”, the IFS says.
  • It says Labour’s plans to change the taxation of dividends and capital gains are “very welcome” and would raise revenue.
  • The Labour plan for inclusive ownership funds, taking 10% of big firms’s share and allocating them for the workers and for government, would probably lead to companies reducing pay to compensate.

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IFS on Tory manifesto plans: 'An awful lot' of austerity would remain 'baked in'

And here is a fuller summary of what Paul Johnson, the Institute for Fiscal Studies director, was saying about the Tory manifesto plans in his opening presentation.

At one point he said that the IFS would be saying a lot more about the Labour plans than the Tory plans. That was not the result of any bias, for or against, he explained. It was just a consequence of Labour having released much more detail about its plans, he said. The Tory plans are a lot more sketchy.

IFS on Conservative plans

  • It is “highly likely” the Tories would end up spending more than their manifesto implies, “and thus taxing and borrowing more”, the IFS says.
  • Public spending under the current government is much closer to what Labour promised in its 2017 manifesto than what the Tories promised in their own manifesto, the IFS says. Johnson says:

Current public service spending is due to be around £27 billion higher next year than implied by their 2017 manifesto. That’s closer to the 2017 Labour pledge than to the Conservatives’ own manifesto.

  • But Tory spending plans would not reverse austerity, the IFS says. Johnson says:

Conservative plans if delivered would leave public service spending outside of health still 14% lower in 2023-24 than it was in 2010-11. No more austerity perhaps, but an awful lot of it baked in.

  • There is a risk of an effective no deal Brexit at the end of 2020 under the Tories, the IFS says. It says this would harm the economy and increase the deficit and debt.
  • The Tories have “failed to come up with any kind of plan or any kind of money for social care”, the IFS says.
  • Tory plans on welfare are “all but non-existent”, the IFS says.
  • It says the Tory plans for tax and spending will suit people who “think things are pretty much okay as they are”.

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Overall IFS verdict on Tory, Labour and Lib Dem manifesto plans

And here is Paul Johnson’s conclusion from his opening presentation at the IFS briefing.

The implication of the Conservative manifesto is that they believe most aspects of public policy are just fine as they are. Little in the way of changes to tax, spending, welfare or anything else. Yes, there are some spending increases for health and education already promised, but essentially nothing new in the manifesto.

Labour, by contrast, want to change everything. Their vision is of a state with a far greater role than anything we have seen for more than 40 years. They would tax and spend more than ever before, putting in place a new universal welfare state with free childcare, free university, free personal care, free prescriptions and more besides; they would impose a swathe of new labour market regulations; their minimum wage would directly set the wages of a quarter of private sector workers; they would nationalise a series of companies whose performance is of vital importance to the UK economy; they would enforce transfer of effective ownership of 10% of large companies from current owners to a combination of employees and government. For good or bad five years of Labour government would involve enormous economic and social change.

In the face of such vast ambition from Labour, one should not forget that the Liberal Democrat manifesto is itself a radical document that would involve a decisive move away from the policies of the past decade.

Rarely can a starker choice have been placed before the UK electorate.

Labour and Tories both not 'being honest with electorate' over tax, says IFS

Here is more from Paul Johnson’s opening presentation at the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ briefing.

All other countries which tax and spend on the scale that Labour proposes have tax systems which levy more tax on the average worker than we do. Liberal Democrat proposals to put a penny on the main rates of income tax would be simple, progressive and would raise a secure level of revenue. While the Conservatives continue to pretend that tax rises will never be needed to secure decent public services, Labour pretends that huge increases in spending can be financed by just big companies and the rich. In this respect neither Labour nor the Conservatives is being honest with the electorate.

Here is my colleague Julia Kollewe’s story about the IFS analysis.

IFS says neither Tory nor Labour manifesto plans 'properly credible'

In his opening remarks at the Institute for Fiscal Studies briefing Paul Johnson, the IFS, director, said neither the Tory nor the Labour manifesto plans were “properly credible”. He said (bold type in original IFS text):

Neither [the Conservative manifesto nor the Labour manifesto] is a properly credible prospectus.

Should they win this time it is highly likely that the Conservatives would end up spending more than their manifesto implies and thus taxing or borrowing more. The chances of holding spending down as they propose over a five-year parliament look remote. Why have they been so immensely modest in their proposals? Because to do otherwise would either mean resiling from their pledge to balance the current budget or would mean being up front about the need for tax rises to avoid breaking that pledge.

Labour would not be able to deliver investment spending increases on the scale they promise. The public sector doesn’t have the capacity to ramp up that much, that fast.

It is highly likely that Labour, at least over the longer-term, would need to implement other tax raising measures in order to raise the £80bn of tax revenue that they want and even just sticking to those proposals they would clearly increase taxes for many millions outside the top 5%. In reality, a change in the scale and scope of the state that they propose would require more broad-based tax increases at some point.

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Labour has deselected its election candidate for Falkirk for allegedly putting antisemitic posts on Facebook, leaving the party unable to contest a seat it once held for decades.

Scottish Labour officials confirmed a report in the Falkirk Herald it had dropped Safia Ali as a candidate and suspended her party membership after past antisemitic posts on Facebook surfaced, in the latest controversy about candidate selections.

Michael Sharpe, Scottish Labour’s general secretary, told the Falkirk Herald:

I deeply regret the people of the Falkirk constituency will no longer have a Labour candidate to campaign and vote for on 12 December 12.

There is no place for antisemitism, or any form of racism and bigotry, in our party. That is why Labour is taking robust action to root it out of our movement and wider society.

Ali had stood as an independent candidate for the Carse, Kinnaird and Tryst ward in a local election to Falkirk council in 2017, getting the lowest number of first-preference votes. A party source said the comments were made on an older Facebook account she no longer used, and had not been picked up during candidate screening.

He said the case was going through the fast-track disciplinary processes introduced by Jeremy Corbyn. “Safia Ali is no longer the Labour party’s candidate for Falkirk,” a party spokesman said. “We have taken immediate action on this matter.”

Labour’s Falkirk constituency party was embroiled in a controversy over irregularities in member recruitment involving the Unite union when the union wanted Karie Murphy, an ally of Unite leader Len McCluskey and latterly a key aide to Corbyn, chosen as its candidate. The constituency party was put under special measures.

In 2015, it was amongst the swathe of Labour seats to topple in the Scottish National party landslide and was held by the SNP’s John McNally in 2017 with a 4,923 vote majority. The seat has since been low on Labour’s target list in Scotland.

Updated

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has just started its press conference to present its analysis of the main parties’ election manifestos.

There is a live feed here.

Boris Johnson facing criticism for ducking leaders' debate on climate crisis

Boris Johnson is facing growing criticism for refusing to take part in tonight’s climate crisis leaders’ debate on Channel 4.

Nicolas Stern, author of a landmark climate report, said it was crucial that all political leaders showed up for the debate to give voters the chance to see how future governments would respond to the unfolding emergency.

Climate change and biodiversity are critical issues for both the UK and the world, and it is crucial that all our political party leaders take part in the groundbreaking debate.

Stern, a crossbench member of the House of Lords and Chair of the Grantham Research Institute at the LSE, said voters had a right to hear “a more detailed discussion between the leaders about how their governments would rise to challenges of acting with the urgency and scale demanded by these issues”.

For many voters, particularly young ones, climate change and nature are two of the most important issues at this election and they should be well-informed about each leader’s views about them when they vote.

The hour-long debate will be held tonight on Channel 4 at 7pm. Jeremy Corbyn and the leaders of the SNP, Plaid Cymru, the Liberal Democrats and the Green party have all agreed to take part.

The decision of Johnson not to take part comes amid increasingly alarming news on the scale of the emergency. On Wednesday scientists warned that the world may already have crossed a series of climate tipping points posing “an existential threat to civilisation”.

The Green party’s Caroline Lucas said:

It’s outrageous that he can’t spare an hour to address the greatest challenges of our time. How are we supposed to trust the prime minister’s word that he’s taking climate and nature emergency seriously?

Max Wakefield, director at Possible, which led the campaign for a climate debate, said: “It is not too late for the prime minister to do as the public wants and turn up to debate the climate and nature emergency.”

Updated

Here is my colleague Heather Stewart’s story about the new Labour strategy.

Agenda for the day

Here are the campaign events in the diary for today.

9.30am: The Institute for Fiscal Studies publishes an analysis of the main parties’ manifestos.

10.30am: The DUP launches its election manifesto.

11am: Jeremy Corbyn gives a speech on the environment. He will announce plans to plant 2bn trees by 2040.

11am: Nigel Farage, the Brexit party leader, campaigns in Hull.

11.30am: Jo Swinson, the Lib Dem leader, gives a speech on “the problem with Boris Johnson”.

12.30pm: Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, and Nia Griffith, his Labour shadow, take part in a defence hustings organised by the Royal United Services Institute.

7pm: Jeremy Corbyn, Nicola Sturgeon, Jo Swinson, Siân Berry and Adam Price take part in a Channel 4 News leaders’ debate on the environment. Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage are planning to stay away.

Updated

Labour seeking to firm up appeal to leave voters as poll suggests Tories well ahead

Good morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Jedidajah Otte

We have already mentioned Iain Watson’s report for the BBC on how Labour plans to revise its campaign to focus more on appealing to leave voters. His full report is here. And here is an extract.

The message will be that Labour’s leave deal would offer voters a genuine choice - and that a new referendum will not be an attempt to remain in the EU by the back door.

There will be an attempt to explain the deal Labour is seeking to negotiate – and that it would protect workers’ rights.

In other words, the party leadership is not opposing Brexit by opposing Boris Johnson’s deal – it simply wants to find what it regards as a better one.

That may be a tricky argument, compared with the simplicity of the Conservative message of getting Brexit “done”.

But it is felt that reassurance for leave voters is necessary.

And here is the Press Association version of the story.

The Labour party has hit the reset button amid the latest polling saying the Tories are on course to win the general election.

The party is understood to be changing tack in its campaign, particularly in leave-voting areas, where it is in danger of losing seats to the Conservatives.

Labour insiders say a key mistake up until now was overestimating the electoral threat from the Liberal Democrats, and underestimating the likelihood of leave voters switching from Labour to the Conservatives, the BBC has reported.

Labour’s strategy so far had been – in part – to emphasise that the election is about more than Brexit and to get voters to focus on issues which would unite Labour voters in leave and remain areas.

The new plan is designed to appeal to those who voted for Brexit, and to try to convince them that Labour is not attempting to stop Brexit by offering another referendum.

Shadow cabinet members who back a leave deal rather than remain will have a higher profile in the final two weeks of the campaign.

Jeremy Corbyn and party chairman, Ian Lavery, who favours leaving the EU with a deal, will tour leave areas to try to explain the deal Labour wants to negotiate and emphasise that they will protect workers’ rights.

Quite how much actual change we will witness in Labour campaigning remains to be seen. After all, it is not as if shadow cabinet ministers who are strongly remain have been given a high profile anyway. (Keir Starmer has been almost as invisible as Jacob Rees-Mogg in the last few weeks.) And what is being described is not a new policy, but just a subtle shift in emphasis.

Barry Gardiner, the shadow international trade secretary, was asked about the BBC story when he was on the Today programme. He claimed he did not know anything about a shift in strategy, but he did not contest the accuracy of the story in any way.

Updated

Both the Tories and Labour are likely to break their own spending rules, the Resolution Foundation said in a new report published today.

RF is an independent thinktank focused on improving the living standards of those on low to middle incomes.

The Tories have promised to balance the budget within three years, Labour said it would do so within five years.

The analysis suggests that the Tories are failing to account for “costs associated with their new investment plans” and “increased interest payments” and “additional depreciation cost of £2.3bn per year by 2023-24”. The Tory manifesto does also not include any funding for the pledged £6bn increase of the national insurance threshold to £12,500.

Labour’s manifesto on the other hand “failed to account for the additional £12bn annual cost from its commitment to compensate women born in the 1950s affected by the increase in the state pension age”, the report stated. Labour’s investment plans would mean its budget balancing headroom has already been more than used up, the report added.

Labour has called the report inaccurate.

Updated

The BBC’s Ian Watson just said on Today that Labour voters living in leave areas will “likely see a very different style of campaign” from the party over the next two weeks, as “the Lib Dem threat was overestimated, while the willingness of leave voters to switch from Labour to the Conseravtives was underestimated”.

More Labour activists are set to be moved into leave areas, he said, and that shadow cabinet members backing a leave deal rather than remain will be given a higher profile. The message will be that a new referendum won’t be a “back door” initiative to remain in the EU, Watson added.

Updated

Laura Duffell from the Royal College of Nursing told Sky’s Breakfast show this morning that she and her colleagues had doubts about the 50,000 extra NHS nurses that were promised in the Conservative manifesto.

“I’d really like to know where the 50,000 nurses are coming from. [...] If there are 50,000 nurses out there, why do we not see them already? It’s not an overnight fix,” Duffell said.

Rabbi Jonathan Sacks just spoke about the widely reported incident on the London underground from a few days ago, where a Jewish family was subjected to antisemitic verbal abuse from a man, before other passengers intervened. The man was later arrested. “The hero was a young Muslim woman wearing a hijab,” Sacks said. “She chose to identify with the Jewish family.”

“She chose not to be a bystander but chose to confront racism head on,” he added.

Updated

Labour’s Barry Gardiner is on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.

Quizzed on the YouGov MRP poll result and Labour’s reported change of tactic, with the aim to convince more Labour leave voters, Gardiner says he hasn’t heard of anything about a change in campaign tactics.

He says the margins have “narrowed” in recent weeks, and that Labour is the only party trying to unite the country around a compromise: a final say on any Brexit deal.

This from Sky’s Tamara Cohen:

Updated

Hello, I’m taking over from my colleague Kate Lyons now.

Many people wonder this morning how accurate the YouGov MRP poll predicting a comfortable Tory majority might be, as well as how accurate any polling can be.

This from political journalist Conor Pope:

This from Prospect editor Tom Clark, who is urging caution:

And this from the journalist Paul Mason:

Updated

There’s a bit of drama going down about whether or not Boris Johnson will do an interview with Andrew Neil.

As Jim Waterson and Heather Stewart write:

Labour has expressed concerns about the BBC’s political coverage after it was revealed that Boris Johnson has still not confirmed whether he will subject himself to a cross-examination by Andrew Neil.

Jeremy Corbyn’s team agreed to take part in the series of one-on-one interviews with the journalist after the BBC told them the prime minister would definitely be doing a similar broadcast next week. However, a BBC source strongly denied they had told Labour that Johnson had confirmed.

The BBC has yet to confirm the date of Johnson’s appearance, leading to Labour concerns that Johnson could be tempted to sidestep scrutiny from one of the broadcaster’s leading political interviewers.

Nicola Sturgeon responded asking whether Johnson was ducking out because he was a chicken. Jeremy Corbyn supporter and Guardian columnist Owen Jones called it an “absolute disgrace”, saying the BBC had “lied to Labour and said they’d agreed an interview between Andrew Neil and Boris Johnson next week” – a claim the BBC denies, and Labour candidates are piling on.

Updated

What’s happening today?

Jo Swinson starts the day with a roundtable on homelessness in London and Jeremy Corbyn will be in Southampton to announce the party’s environment policies.

A foreign policy debate, featuring the foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, the shadow foreign secretary, Emily Thornberry, as well as the foreign affairs spokespersons for the Lib Dems and SNP. If you’re interested, that will be broadcast on Radio 4 tonight.

Tonight, party leaders will participate in a debate on the climate crisis, broadcast on Channel 4. Boris Johnson has not confirmed whether he will be there and Nigel Farage has rejected the invite, but all other parties will be attending.

A quiet day for the Tories, who have no major events or announcements scheduled.

Updated

A new poll for the Times points to a thumping Conservative victory. While the Guardian is treating all polls with suspicion, read why here, the MRP poll from YouGov came closest to calling the unexpected result of the 2017 general election.

The poll predicts the Conservatives will win 359 seats (42 gains), leaving Johnson with a majority of 68. Labour, meanwhile, would fall back to 211 seats – a result that would be in line with the disaster of 1983. Not everyone is happy with that message, including Boris Johnson’s adviser Dominic Cummings who has told Brexit supporters that the general election is “much tighter” than polls might suggest and urged them to persuade their friends to vote Tory.

Matt Hancock is up early, talking about Conservative plans to tackle addiction.

Good morning politics people. We’re two weeks out from the vote and Labour has taken the gloves off, accusing the Tories of being willing to sell off the NHS. Meanwhile, there’ll be a lot of talk about the climate crisis today, as scientists warn the world may already have crossed a series of climate tipping points, meaning “we are in a state of planetary emergency”.

Jeremy Corbyn has returned to his deadliest line of attack in this election campaign, as he claims that leaked documents show Boris Johnson wants to sell off the NHS in a trade deal with the US.

The official papers reveal US and UK officials have repeatedly discussed dismantling protections that keep NHS drug prices down as part of their negotiations about a post-Brexit trade deal.

The Labour leader, and some experts, say that the official papers put lie to Johnson’s repeated claims that the NHS is not for sale and that healthcare is “not on the table” in trade talks between the two countries. Denis Campbell and Jamie Grierson have unpacked what the dossier says and what it means. Heather Stewart writes that “Corbyn had one central aim as he brandished the 451-page ‘secret” NHS document at a hastily-arranged press conference on Wednesday: to drag the general election debate safely back into Labour’s comfort zone after the antisemitism accusations.

Today will be about the environment. Corbyn will be in Southampton where he will set out the party’s environment policies, arguing that the UK should plant 2bn trees by 2040. One plank of Labour’s energy policy is under fire today, as lawyers have warned that the party’s plans to take large parts of the energy industry back under public control puts it on a collision course with EU laws that guard Europe-owned companies against government takeovers. Later tonight, the leaders of most parties – Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage are the notable exceptions – will participate in a Channel 4 debate on climate issues.

Updated

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